Thursday Evening Thoughts

Good Thursday evening. All eyes continue to be on what’s going on next week and there continues to be… well… a lot going on. A series of systems will impact our weather and a few of them should be on the wintry side.

The models are still trying to come together and are still a day or two away from having a good handle on things. The GFS has shown everything from a major storm to no storm for us early next week… and that’s just with runs over the past 24 hours. The afternoon run of the model is starting to come around, but is still too far east with the system.

The latest run shows light snow breaking out around here Monday night into Tuesday…

The GFS Ensembles mean is also starting to pick up on the east coast storm…

Don’t be surprised to see both show a farther west solution in the coming days.

The European Model continues to show a farther westward storm, but is weaker than what it was showing before…

You can also see another system diving in from the northwest by next Thursday. That one begins the process of unleashing the real deal cold from Canada… just in time for Christmas Weekend…

It’s beginning a lot like Christmas! ;)

Enjoy your evening and take care.


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29 Responses to Thursday Evening Thoughts

  1. Todd says:

    Thanks for the update Chris, even a little snow on the ground would brighten the season!

  2. Logan says:

    So, we could see a whole week of snow next week?

  3. JJTeach says:

    So Chris, do you still think there is at least a chance that we could have a little snow on the groud either Tuesday or Wednesday mornings of next week?

  4. Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

    Great the gfs comes on board with a chance of snow,but now the euro goes into semi- hibernation. I would not be surprise that both of them flip flop on their next run. I guess we will have to wait for the nam to break the nonsense. My opinion is that we all wait for all three of these models to come to the same consensus before getting the white powder shakes.

  5. Tominlou says:

    Short summary…. lots of winter hope, cold rains and blah temperatures on the horizon. Our huge “switch to Winter” this week was brutal, wasn’t it? 54 on Friday, 56 on Saturday….

    • Chris Bailey says:

      Poor Tom

      • BubbaG says:

        CB, we just need one trend buster (big snow) for central KY and the downer blues are purged. I guess for the other folks in the state too, but over the past five years, seems the rest of the state have got some big snows.

    • BubbaG says:

      Hence my having the same vibe as last winter. I recall similar discussions last winter and big event opportunities. They kept drifting out until spring. Seems very unlikely we would have two wimpy winters in a row, so I still expect the cold to be sustained at one point. We are looking at an end of year “big cold”, so if that pushes out. Jeepers.

      And before folks push back, I specifically remember this same pattern last December. None the less, I am still siding with CB, but those darn trend results sure are some powerful Kool Aid.

  6. Jessica says:

    “The GFS has shown everything from a major storm to no storm for us early next week… and that’s just with runs over the past 24 hours.”

    Do not post much but do like to read the comments and see what others are thinking as well. I have seen some posts about the GFS being the best then I read things like the above quote very often. I understand that the models are not the best very far out but it seems that the GFS jumps around the most just from reading. So I have to ask this about the GFS. Does this model really change around that much? Almost seems other models are a little more consistent but that could just be me.

  7. BubbaG says:

    I don’t know, but I am getting a similar vibe as last December and can not shake the term “wintry”. Based on previous outlooks and subsequent forecasts and results, it equates to a mix rather than all out snow.

    The trends through the years have probably brainwashed me, but results are powerful hypnotics ;)

    Well next week be a big event, or a big meh?

  8. Bryan says:

    Hurry up and wait my friends. We wont know until it gets here.

  9. KC says:

    “Hey, hey, hey Snowflake! My pretty little snowflake. ”
    Who knows the next line?

  10. lisaj says:

    I will be doing the snow dance hoping for a white Christmas. Who is with me??

  11. WXman says:

    Guys and girls.. just a reminder that the GFS charts above are the 850mb charts. Unless you’re on a helicopter, you won’t see those temperatures. The surface charts for that same time keep us at or just below 40 degrees. So, actually the GFS is not showing snow here and has not flip flopped.

    I do agree that it appears the cold air will finally move in around Christmas..question now is when will a system cruise through? Before Christmas Eve? The day after Christmas? Hard to say right now. I think by the time 2013 rolls in, Chris will be getting very excited. :)

  12. Bradley Clem says:

    I know an obese guy in Madison county that only comes on here to whine about a snow dome, never getting enough snow, wimpy winters, ankle biters, high temps, ice, blah, blah, blah, blah. If you want snow go further north. One week later you will be whining about your wet socks, cold nose, chapped lips, cold toes, ear ache, blah, blah, blah. You’re an annoying big baby. Waaaaahhh Waaah waaaah. Go nap in your freezer dork. ;)

    • Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

      Dude you need to chill out.

    • BubbaG says:

      Why juxtapose an apparent insult as someone being obese? That seems superfluous and offensive to Santa….. If referring to me, I am a former Marine and still jog three miles, so not obese. That said, the thought of being like FB from Austin Powers would have merit- if I could pull off the Scottish accent, “I’m dead sexy!”.

  13. Faust says:

    I love this site; will continue to sell my soul to read the up and down recitations. Let’s enjoy the coming Season for what it is! We reside in a transition zone. Think snow,

  14. greg says:

    Well when these guys http://www.crh.noaa.gov/wxstory.php?site=jkl start to talk about it this far out then I would call it a real possibility considering how they play everything close to the vest.

  15. Bengalfan says:

    Well I was so mad at halftime, but now I’m so happy,kinda,,,who dey!!!

    The eagles just plain fell to pieces. 4turnoers in less than 2 minutes…we will take it, since we gave it away last Sunday…mAbey somehow I can relate this snow,,don’t look good start throwing thingsatthetv and then it flips on a dime,,,,,who dey

  16. Seth says:

    The 0z gfs now has the system out to sea.

    I’ve been kind of surprised lately with the models. Normally I’d expect a system like this to be a closed low that gives everybody around Kentucky snow. Now it doesn’t seem like anybody except upper New England is going to get any snow from this.

    • Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

      I guess the best hope might be the clipper system that is forecast to come down from Canada before xmas. I guess this season could be like last year. Wait until next week or month. If we do not get the Greenland blocking it is going to be a mild winter. The one thing we got going for us right now is the fact that there is a greater snow pack up north compare to last year.

  17. Go Cards says:

    You people do realize the world is ending next Friday right? You all want to bicker about will it snow or is the GFS better than this model or that model. The Mayans are coming. RUN!!

    • Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

      That means that you will not have to suffer through a one sided Sugar bowl.

      • Go Cards says:

        Yeah but couldn’t the Mayans have just waited until after the UL UK game on the 29th? No matter who would’ve won we all wanted to see one more. Dang it Mayans.

  18. KG4KBU says:

    I was wondering what everyone thought about this video about snow storms ? http://youtu.be/BQ7m8sJQ0t0

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