The Pattern Looks A Lot Like Winter

Good Friday to all my fellow weather lovers. We have a gorgeous day in the works as sunny skies work to mild us up into the afternoon hours. If you are a fan of this type of weather… enjoy it. Clouds and showers move in this weekend with cold and wintry chances not too far behind for next week.

Highs today will hit the upper 40s to low 50s for many areas. You will notice an increase in high clouds late today into the evening hours. Those clouds will thicken up overnight and early Saturday with scattered showers spreading from west to east. Those showers will carry us into Sunday as temps start to fall by the afternoon and evening hours. 

This is the beginning of a very active pattern that’s threatening to hit the supercharged button next week into Christmas week. There are so many disturbances crossing the country over the next 5-7 days that the models simply cannot figure out what to do with them.

The latest from the GFS Ensemble Mean has actually reverted back to showing something similar to what most models were showing a few days ago. That would be the stronger low coming later Tuesday into early Wednesday… 

Other models such as the Canadian want to put most of the emphasis on the storm that comes later Monday into Tuesday… 

 The UKMET also likes that time frame better… 

 All three of those models would bring rain and snow to the bluegrass state.

The European Model is showing it’s mortal and is having issues on how to handle so many systems at once. The latest run tries to focus on the Monday evening storm just to our east…

It never allows it to deepen like the Canadian and UKMET because of the next low pushing it from the west for late Tuesday.

 As you can see, we have a ton of model differences and those won’t be ironed out until we can get all the energy across the Pacific and into the west. That’s when the models will have a better sample of the disturbances they have to deal with. That will happen this weekend and I suspect some big model swings are ahead of us.

For a little fun and to show how much the pattern has shifted, the Canadian Model tries to go “Day After Tomorrow” on us next weekend…

 I was going to simply laugh at the model until the European came in with something close…

Ok fine.. I will still LOL at those runs. 😉 I’m not saying a storm isn’t possible next weekend, but the models need to figure out the early part of the week first.

Let’s make no mistake about it… the pattern for the rest of the month is ripe with cold and snow threats for much of the country and that includes the bluegrass state.

I will update things later today. Make it a wonderful Friday and take care.

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24 Responses to The Pattern Looks A Lot Like Winter

  1. Go Cards says:

    Figures. The world is gone and then a blizzard comes.

  2. Mark says:

    Hmm, which will happen first?

    Lucy pulling the figurative weather football away from Charlie Brown?

    Or coach Bobby Petrino pulling the football from WKU???

    As a WKU grad, still fuming over this boneheaded hiring decision. With this, and Tennessee football still on the ropes (I grew up in east TN), I find myself supporting Vandy football a little more (I’m now near Nashville), something I would not have thought possible ;).

    (end sports rant) 😉

  3. Mark says:

    Anyway, as Chris, WXman and others have touched on, the period from roughly New Years on could get very interesting. Perhaps give me one or two moderate snows and then give back the warm weather 🙂 . I admit I and other warm wx fans are outnumbered here. But it still fascinates me to see how the winter systems might come together, almost as interesting to me as how our severe t-storms form in the spring (but generally with less threat to life and property, even if the weight of heavy snow can bring down some structures and cause power issues).

  4. Bryan says:

    IIIIIIIIIIIIIII’m not gonna get my hopes up, I’m not gonna get my hopes up! 🙂

  5. bjenks says:

    Think Positive everyone….Winter will be here sooner than you realize. Thanks CB for the update…..Have a great day!

  6. Matthew says:

    Love seeing the models and your thoughts. Keep up the good work and know it is much appreciated.

    Nice to see so much activity. Temps have been cooler than forecast around my way for the last few days. Hopefully this will allow these storms to set in for some snow.

  7. rolo says:

    to me if we are not going to have a STORM Snow wise that happens and stays cold for at least week to 10 days then coulds care less bout snow.

    we dont wanta 6 inches of snow then very next day or day after temnps in 40s or higher.

    when I refer to OLD SCHOOL a big part of a OLD SCHOOL event is indeed the COLD AIR that comes with it. u know BIG DADDY then single digit low teens hgigh with WELL below zero lows. u younger people are saying ROLO u are a NUT CAse but know my friend these type events happen ALOT more than u think back in 70s and 80s, even into early 90s.

    so I keep wanting a OLD SCHOOL STORM so my neices and nephews can see what their father and I talk about. they think we are FULL OF ISH. and one my nieces is 16 year old, that tell u how longs it been.

    • bjenks says:

      Now that is what I am talking about. Heavy snow with sustained cold temps with more snow on top of that. We have not seen that in more than 20 years. Not that this is typical weather for KY, but it has happened before.
      Just wait!!!! Jan/Feb will be cold and snowy!
      I have a 16 yr old daughter and she says it never snows here. So I fell your pain ROLO…..

      • bjenks says:


      • Matthew says:

        Do not know about the 20 years deal but maybe. I do remember a few odd years back that I took my 3 kids to the pond behind the house and we actually walked on it. There was about 6 inches of snow on top of the very thick ice. My oldest is 14 and youngest is 11 and they all remember it. Wish I could remember the year. And I can remember some other decent snows as well and we have some pics of the kids building snowmen and some nice snow on the ground. Would be nice to see some this year as well.

  8. Teacher Nate says:

    As extreme of a weather year as we’ve had…It wouldn’t completely suprise me if the “Day After Tomorrow” model runs pan out.

  9. Joey Wilson says:

    I follow this blog, the NWS and the site and have never seen so much “the models are in disarray and I don’t know what’s going to happen” talk.

    I remain hopeful that one of these “storms” take a southern (but not too far south) track but am losing faith. FWIW, the long-range GFS shows highs mainly in the 40s and some 50s with NO snow in our forecast through the first week of January. Depressing!

    • Tyler says:

      the CFS is known for it’s precipitation problems!

    • KellyinLouisville says:

      The 10 day forecast for Louisville has only 3 nights below freezing with the coldest being a bone chilling 27 degrees on the 20th. A few days with highs in the 40’s but also a few with highs in the 50’s and 60’s. In other words…more of the same…

  10. Cameron Fry says:

    I love being hopeful for snow/cold! However, I’ll play devil’s advocate, which I like to do sometimes to see if anyone out there can prove me wrong: I think the main reason the models are struggling is b/c they are underestimating the strength of the pacific zonal flow. This is not a complaining statement or meant to be a weenie post, but I do think how this week went in terms of model madness (GFS being GooFuS and the ECMWF eventually compromising towards the GFS) is a sign of things to come. I sure hope we catch a break! I have a sickening feeling in terms of PNA/AO/NAO, we’ll be all negative or all positive. We shall see.

  11. BubbaG says:

    Suggest paying attention to CBs point about model and NOT pay top much attention to specific runs. The key is their trend and using an average of the main player models.

    Look it up 🙂 Composite weather forecasts are almost always more accurate than one model. Composite in this context is the same as average. The difference being you weight a composite based on the most accurate models. Very general, but a best practice.

  12. Wxman says:

    Taken literally, 12Z GFS shows a devastating ice storm in Lexington 48 hours after Christmas. So we can throw that possibility into the mix now too.

    • Andy Rose says:

      After Christmas LMAO a little far out there buddy tomorrow it will show 70s and no moisture 😉

      • BengalFan says:

        I agree!!!! come on man,,after christmas, though it into the mix??? What about after groundhog day? NO models can predict the weather ….AT THE MAX–3 DAYS OUT

    • prelude says:

      No no no do not discount that, that will prolly happen since its ice, if it was snow I would throw it out the window. Ky cannot get a good snow but we will make up for it in a good old fashion knock your power out slip and slide DISRESPECTFUL ice storm yeah that sounds about right.

      • prelude says:

        That’s what Im talking about an old school ice storm. We cant get buy a old school snow and we had our fair share of old school disrespectful ice storms in recent years why not keep that trend going. Im rolling my eyes lol

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