Good Friday to all my fellow weather lovers. We have a gorgeous day in the works as sunny skies work to mild us up into the afternoon hours. If you are a fan of this type of weather… enjoy it. Clouds and showers move in this weekend with cold and wintry chances not too far behind for next week.

Highs today will hit the upper 40s to low 50s for many areas. You will notice an increase in high clouds late today into the evening hours. Those clouds will thicken up overnight and early Saturday with scattered showers spreading from west to east. Those showers will carry us into Sunday as temps start to fall by the afternoon and evening hours. 

This is the beginning of a very active pattern that’s threatening to hit the supercharged button next week into Christmas week. There are so many disturbances crossing the country over the next 5-7 days that the models simply cannot figure out what to do with them.

The latest from the GFS Ensemble Mean has actually reverted back to showing something similar to what most models were showing a few days ago. That would be the stronger low coming later Tuesday into early Wednesday… 

Other models such as the Canadian want to put most of the emphasis on the storm that comes later Monday into Tuesday… 

 The UKMET also likes that time frame better… 

 All three of those models would bring rain and snow to the bluegrass state.

The European Model is showing it’s mortal and is having issues on how to handle so many systems at once. The latest run tries to focus on the Monday evening storm just to our east…

It never allows it to deepen like the Canadian and UKMET because of the next low pushing it from the west for late Tuesday.

 As you can see, we have a ton of model differences and those won’t be ironed out until we can get all the energy across the Pacific and into the west. That’s when the models will have a better sample of the disturbances they have to deal with. That will happen this weekend and I suspect some big model swings are ahead of us.

For a little fun and to show how much the pattern has shifted, the Canadian Model tries to go “Day After Tomorrow” on us next weekend…

 I was going to simply laugh at the model until the European came in with something close…

Ok fine.. I will still LOL at those runs. 😉 I’m not saying a storm isn’t possible next weekend, but the models need to figure out the early part of the week first.

Let’s make no mistake about it… the pattern for the rest of the month is ripe with cold and snow threats for much of the country and that includes the bluegrass state.

I will update things later today. Make it a wonderful Friday and take care.