Weekend Kickoff

Good Friday evening, gang. Your friendly weatherdude is dropping by for another update as we kickoff the weekend. Clouds are increasing right now and those clouds will lead to scattered showers this weekend. It’s the weather of next week that should be getting our attention.

The American models continue to play catch up with the rest of the models. The NAM shows how it’s coming around to the idea of the low on top of us Monday then off to our northeast by Tuesday…

Even the GFS is in the process of jumping onboard. I will never understand the blind following that model has.

The European Model shows the scenario we’ve been talking about for Tuesday…

Monday will feature rain and gusty winds as the low goes right on top of us. Colder air sweeps in behind it with some snow showers and flurries into Tuesday.

After a brief break Wednesday, the action picks back up Thursday as a powerful system works into the region. Rain and wind will increase and our temps will drop like a rock at some point late in the day or night. VERY cold air then takes control of our weather as a big time cut off low develops and parks itself across the region through Christmas weekend. Check out the cold and snowy look from the European Model…

The pattern is VERY favorable for a multi-day run of highs in the 20s (Maybe teens for a day) ,snow showers and squalls and rounds of light snow. Not a bad lead up to Christmas. πŸ™‚

Have a great rest of your evening and take care.

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36 Responses to Weekend Kickoff

  1. rolo says:

    XMAS EVE and Day i see several inches on ground with as Bailey noted COLD upper teensd low 20s for highs.

    I take a 3-4 day verrrry cold with snow squalls. and 1 month ago predicted a WHITE one and I will go up from this morning 60 percent to 82 percent chance that ur XMAS will be white IN east/SE KY

    • BubbaG says:

      Rolo, you guys have gotten plenty of snow love in the past 14 years. A big “meh” if you guys get good stuff and we do not πŸ˜‰

      No, really………… πŸ˜‰

      That said, I can see more a case for snow to the north, central and west KY, but perhaps a shot of ice to the south east. Watch out.

      I think the big event could be the kind a lot of folks might not like.

  2. Jeff Hamlin says:

    Hey, even a certain other TV met is forecasting serious cold for next weekend. Chris’ influence is spreading. πŸ˜‰

  3. Joey Wilson says:

    Soooo…rain, then cold, then snow showers on back side followed by cold and dry? Not really what most of us were hoping for. Oh well, Chris can only predict it; he can’t “make it” happen.

  4. Aaron C. says:

    No big snowstorms on the horizon, but maybe at least a little snow that will hopefully stick around for the big day. We’ll have to take what we can get. πŸ™‚

    • Marsha says:

      Chris said next weekend could be very snowy @ 6 Chris I still trust your forecasting so I guess we will just have to wait and see….

      • BengalFan says:

        no he said> ,snow showers and squalls and rounds of light snow. Not a bad lead up to Christmas…that isnt a big snowstorm!

  5. WXman says:

    You guys and girls cracked me up earlier today.. talking about how a forecast 11 days out is “gettin’ out there a little too far”. Heck, the NWS does official forecasts for 7 days. Why is 11 days suddenly getting crazy?

    Anyway, GFS is very consistent run to run right now, contrary to what you may hear. Warm with rain this weekend, warm with rain at the end of the week, cold air spilling in with snow showers next weekend, then a big winter storm immediately after Christmas. I’ve seen that exact pattern run after run for a couple days now. Will it work out that way? Who knows. But when it’s showing -20s temps at the surface moving into the northern U.S. by the end of the month, you have to take notice.

    • Andy Rose says:

      the nws forecast 7 days out is about as accurate as me giving the winnig powerball #for the powerball for a month away i trust thier forecast only if its the day of or maybe night before

      • Pierce says:

        Don’t bash the NWS until you have tried to do their job. I consider the Louisville NWS as one of the best in the country. They’re very on top of things and they are usually quite accurate. They are able to get in the ball park a week out. Jackson does good, too.

      • WXman says:

        Your opinion is your right. But again, I documented forecasts from Lexington for a 6 week period and the NWS forecast was #1 week after week. WKYT was #2, but none of the private sector forecasts were as accurate to 7 days as NWS. This should be no surprise to anyone who actually knows what kind of college coursework you have to endure to earn a true met. degree. It’s grueling. JKL can’t be much worse.

    • BubbaG says:

      I think you might be on the miss end of this one. That said, if we could get some warm air fueling with the cold, we could get a better event (more snow). On the flip side, creates a scenario for potential warm air aloft (ice).

    • BengalFan says:

      Well a jjust a few days ago, this blog was hyping possible snow storm for next tuesday/wed////based on models..now its looking more like rain, then back in flurries (gosh that sounds very familiar)..now saying–no it will be next weekend when the cold comes in,,COME ON! What was the temp today??????? Wasn’t it like 56 or something here in CKY! I hope winter turns….But people keep saying next week., next week, next week..It does get cold for maybe two days , then back to 50′!!!!!!!!! OH WELL, live life and enjoy whatever weather we have , right. Here’s for now(50’s rain on the horizion, and next weekend with cold and snow chance(At least till next wed when we will say..this weekend will be 50 rain, but NEXT WEEK IS WHEN ITS GOING TO…….)

      BUT, on the Bright Side. WHO DEY!!!!!!! I hope not Steelers in 1 week

    • Matthew says:

      “Even the GFS is in the process of jumping onboard. I will never understand the blind following that model has.”

      “Anyway, GFS is very consistent run to run right now, contrary to what you may hear.”

      Ok, help me here. I see CB constantly talking about how the GFS shows many solutions with each run in a 24 hour period. Then he makes a comment about it “coming on board” like it has started to find what other models are showing. Then I read a comment from WXman who also seems to know quite a bit about the weather and models about the GFS being consistent contrary to what I may hear. I need to learn about this stuff starting now as this is getting a little confusing.

      • WXman says:

        There are two ways to look at it. Either the Euro model is the one playing catch-up..or the GFS model is the one playing catch-up. Different people see it different ways. When Tuesday rolls around and it’s 50 outside with rain and rumbles of thunder…then people will say “See…Euro was right!” even though GFS had been showing that for over a week. It never ends… same thing every winter. πŸ˜‰

        • BubbaG says:

          I think the result could be between the two and perhaps more precipitation as a result. Then again, could result in a rain/mix or ice.

          I stick with the 14 year convention we are more likely to get big ice than big snow in central Kentucky.

          • Wxman says:

            True. I’m not trying to contradict what Chris posted for the heck of it. I’m simply giving the other angle on this. GFS takes a harsh lashing all the time and its unfounded. We all want snow! But we also need to be realistic. Chris works hard on this site. Don’t take me wrong.

            • BubbaG says:

              I am not. I like multiple perspectives πŸ™‚

              Last year, I kept pointing out to watch out for Lucy’s football and that warm air was going to win, but got blasted by a few folks. Even Rolo took a shot at me, but apologized when he saw I turned out to luck out and be correct.

        • Matthew says:

          OK. So the real issue is if the GFS is consistent with each solution and you are saying it is.

          I guess that is what confuses me the most about all this. I see where CB says that the model 6z run showed a scenario but the 12z showed something different.

          Now, I am not knocking the GFS as to me it seems that all the models are off somewhat. Seems like at the end they all adjust towards like solutions many times.

  6. weather blog troll says:

    I crack myself up when I go on another guys weather blog and contradict them. What a guy!!! Hoooraaaaay!!!!

    Keep up the great work Mr. Bailey – you rawk!

  7. Todd says:

    What happens at the end of the month??? Why even try to guess, let’s hope a nice dusting of snow for next weekend, man we are grasping at straws for a sniff of winter!

  8. Matt says:

    Hope the Euro is correct. That would be a LOVELY pattern for us here in the mts of WV as the NW upslope and Lake effect machines would be cranking for days!! Looks like one of those many closed upper lows we had the winters of 09-10 and 10-11. I could live with that again!!

  9. JJTeach says:

    Ready to see some WHITE!!!

  10. Connor Smith says:

    The season will bring us as it wishes; from full to generator power to none at all, I will still do the dishes. I welcome whatever weather this zone predicates; I will follow Sir Bailey and to his forecasts I dedicate. Lighten up one and all and for a happy holiday I wish one and all.

  11. bjenks says:

    Next week! Oh Wait….Next week! Oh wait a minute! It will be the week after that…..I still think Jan./Feb. will bring us sustained cold and snow. Although I did hear a local met talk about another warm winter with little snow.
    Have a great weekend. Thanks for the update!

    • BubbaG says:

      I am not seeing the same push-out as last winter by CB. Back then, there was a consistent “it is coming next week” all the way until almost spring.

      I looked back to December 6th and his outlook then is fitting now without the “next week” CB algorithm as last winter.

    • Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

      No! Wait till next December. Actually I think we will see slightly above normal temps, and maybe a couple snowstorms (Ky style 1-3″).

  12. misty says:

    NOAA forecast for Corbin is saying rain/snow next Thursday night and snow showers Friday. Hmmm

  13. Andy Rose says:

    i wonder why Mr Bailey has not posted hia winter forecast it makes me think he is not satisfied with it or we r not worthy to gaze upon it;-)

  14. TONEY says:

    the thing that is happening here is the evolution of a pattern that once it kicks in which should be late next week it may very well last for a couplle of months with a few variations…….chris timing may have been off just a little but the nao has gone to neutral and the reason being is that the block known as the greenland block is backing to the west and it has never done this before…..usually a trough on the west coast means a ridge on the east coast but if that trough moves just 10 degrees west then that opens the door for a trough in the east regardless of the nao……..you don’t nessacarily need a neg. nao for big time cold as many mets are finding out but sometimes it does take a while for the pattern to kick in but once it does, katy better bar the door from letting the cold air in…….i am no expert by any means but i have followed it a lot over the years and my brother works at the nws in charleston,

  15. Virgil Edwards says:

    The weather in Miami this coming week is highs in the upper 70’s to around 80 and lows in the mid and upper 60’s with just a chance of showers…. B E A UTIFUL

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