Sunday Evening Thoughts

Good Sunday evening everyone. The iPhone5 is the official sponsor of this KWC update. :) Let’s go ahead and get right into it.

Low pressure will develop and work right on top of us Monday. This low will cause showers and thunderstorms to form and some of the storms may be feisty. The Storm Prediction Center has even placed much of the state in a slight risk for severe storms…

I’m not sold on anything widespread, but our extreme weather year says anything is possible.

Colder air funnels in behind that low with a flurry or snow shower by Tuesday morning.

The next system arrives by Wednesday night and Thursday. This is a powerful low working into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. It will drag a strong cold front across the sate early Thursday and we will likely go from thunder to snow in a matter of hours.

The Canadian Model has a lot of wraparound snow and squalls around here behind this storm…


That’s a lot of cold air and wind to go along with the squalls and that shows up on every model. Well… All of them not named the GFS. It actually has the setup right on every other model run, but simply can’t show it correctly on the 0z and 12z runs.

Ok… That’s all I can give you for now. A full update will be out later tonight. Have a great evening and take care.


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24 Responses to Sunday Evening Thoughts

  1. rolo says:

    tx Bailey still sticking to 5 plus inches on ground for parts of SE/E KY for XMAS!!!

  2. Derek says:

    First of all, let me say I’m sorry that I offended some and I’m sorry if I offended CB. I am just tired of the snow and cold coming next week. Now that I look back on my little hissy fit, I was a bit out of line and rude and I appologize for that. I too have followed the blog for over three years now and hands down, Bailey is the best. No other met gives us multiple daily updates and keeps you informed as he does. I love weather. Especially cold and snowy weather. I would just like to hear about other indicators and trends that point to a cold and snowy winter instead of what the GFS and EURO are showing a week out. In my personal opinion, take either one with a grain of salt. Time and time again they show this storm and that storm and blah blah blah. Models are eye candy and that is about it. But again, I appologize and hope nobody has any hard feelings toward me. Have a great sunday evening.

    • Tyler says:

      Takes a person with true character to admit they were out of line.

      there are some things that do lead to colder weather, and they’re simply not lined up right now. but the models are forecasting for a colder weekend and period ahead!!

    • SK says:

      Thanks, Derek, for the apology! I agree with the above comment. It speaks volumes of your character!

  3. Joey Wilson says:

    Evening major models showing storms through end of the year going well north of KY putting us firmly in the warm air :(

    • WXman says:

      Well, the GFS at least is showing that scenario. A lot of near miss snowstorms for us showing up through the end of December. But it’s the model being discounted, despite the fact that it has failed to be wrong once yet. I’m going to keep the faith though…at some point that bitter air on the U.S./Canada border has to drop southward with some of the indices being negative like they are.

      • Tyler says:

        you going to be updating your blog any time soon? just wondering.

        • WXman says:

          I probably will sometime this week. I have another full time job, plus writing weather blogs for the news here locally. So I don’t have time to do daily updates. I haven’t seen any changes in the GFS through today, so haven’t had any reason to update my thoughts yet. This week will be a good time to update since the models will be locking onto Christmas well.

          In any case, Chris showed a map of the polar vortex a few days ago and it still looks like at some point during the holidays that thing will attempt to drop southward. Should be interesting.

      • BubbaG says:

        The average of the usual suspect models is a mix. Both figuratively and literally. We MIGHT see some kind of white Christmas. I can say that last year this time was zero chance, so at least an improvement.

  4. snowluv says:

    get ready for a repeat of last years winter…it seems all hope is lost

  5. Coffeady says:

    Derek, no real offense taken. I guess that those of us that have been here since the blog started are a bit protective of our ” weatherman.” We think of Chris as more than that. He is a friend. I promise you that the majority of us here are like you and want a big snow (or three)

  6. bjenks says:

    60 Comments on the morning post….And only a few about the actual post that CB provided us. Generally when a post received 60 comments there is a major storm or the post is in THREAT mode. Everyone has there opinion on what CB has to says and should also respect that Chris does this on his personal time and at no charge. Thanks Chris for your sharing your knowledge…..

    NOW Can we get back to the weather???

  7. KRinRichmond says:

    I think the GFS is the model the weather channel uses as well as NOAA and NWS. They always are way warmer WKYT and Chris. Come on winter, we used to get some good snows in December. Not so much the last few years. White Christmas please.

    • BubbaG says:

      I remember one several inch snow on Christmas day in the past 14 years. Not sure if any others. It is all a cold rainy blur.

      • Chris Mercer says:

        As recently as Christmas Day 2010 we had a good snowfall on Christmas Eve and Day. And December 2000 was bitterly cold and snowy. Our long term (100+) year average says we have about a 10% chance of a White Christmas here….

  8. Misty says:

    HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
    343 AM EST SUN DEC 16 2012

    KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-171200-
    FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
    JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
    ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
    OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
    INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…FLEMINGSBURG…MOUNT STERLING…
    OWINGSVILLE…MOREHEAD…IRVINE…STANTON…FRENCHBURG…
    MOUNT VERNON…MCKEE…SOMERSET…LONDON…MONTICELLO…
    WHITLEY CITY…CORBIN…WILLIAMSBURG…BARBOURVILLE…MIDDLESBORO…
    PINEVILLE…HARLAN…SANDY HOOK…WEST LIBERTY…PAINTSVILLE…
    CAMPTON…SALYERSVILLE…PRESTONSBURG…BEATTYVILLE…JACKSON…
    HINDMAN…BOONEVILLE…HAZARD…MANCHESTER…HYDEN…WHITESBURG…
    INEZ…PIKEVILLE
    343 AM EST SUN DEC 16 2012

    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

    .DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT.

    THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

    THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP IN THE
    AFTERNOON MAY CONTAIN STRONG WINDS.

    SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

    .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT…

    SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

    $$

    KAS/GREIF

  9. Virgil Edwards says:

    I think the Iphone 5 might need somework as the first graphic is failing to appear… LOL JK.

  10. Marsha says:

    Boy miss Kari hall is not backing down from her cold and snow forecast hope she is right….

  11. Marsha says:

    Chris just updated on his other blog and he didn’t say nothing about Christmas so I guess it’s not looking good for snow

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