Monday Evening Update

Good Monday evening everyone. All hail mother nature! Thunderstorms rumbled across Kentucky this afternoon and early evening. These storms even put down enough hail to whiten the ground in many places. Does that count as a White Christmas? :)

I wanted to drop by for a quickie update on what we’re tracking for later. The next storm moves in Wednesday night and Tuesday and this will cause a dramatic weather swing. We start Thursday with temps in the 50s with showers and thunderstorms. We end it with temps going below freezing and snow showers and squalls breaking out. Those snow showers and squalls will continue Thursday night and Friday. That is shown nicely by the GFS Ensembles…

I’m toying with the possibility of some areas getting in on a light accumulation. Winds will be a huge player and gusts should top 40mph.

While I’m focusing on this system in the short term, I’m focusing on this bad boy for Christmas and the day after…

More on all that later tonight. Enjoy the rest of your evening and take care.


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53 Responses to Monday Evening Update

  1. Chris Mercer says:

    Chris–Two Reasonable question. The 10th warmest December on record in Lexington was 1875 with 42.6 degrees. Through the 16th, the average temp was was 47.7. That means 12/17-12/31 must average 37.1 or lower to not crack the Top 10 list.

    Question #1: Do you think we will finish with a December out of the Top 10?

    Question #2: Do you still stand behind your below normal winter given the first sixteen days have seen almost record warmth?

    Before anyone jumps on me this is not an attack–just some curious questions!!!

    • Matthew says:

      Good questions.

      I just wonder if this active pattern stays active in January-February. I would also like to see how everything lines up with similar years past. I know each year is different but given everything I just wonder how it stacks up. It seems to me that there has been plenty of moisture to work with at least.

      • Chris Mercer says:

        The only hope I can find is 1984-1985. 1984 was extremely warm in December and brutally cold/snowy in Jan/Feb. Perhaps Chris and/or MJ could give more details as to other analog years.

  2. Coffeady says:

    Thanks, Chris. Looking forward to the later post to see what your thoughts are on the weekend and beyond. Still have the possibility of renegade storms this evening.

  3. BubbaG says:

    I think CB is a big tease ;)

    He knows the models look like they have potential, but has seen too many bust. Well played.

  4. Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

    I love the xmas model,but I have little faith with that scenario.

  5. Todd says:

    This is getting funny now, here we go again for the hundredth time atleast, the storm that is getting my attention now is next week, wow really, come on that sounds promising, I know some of you folks will come rushing in to say I’m to harsh or calling Chris out, no, facts are this is the same ole same ole stuff we have heard for years! As some has said already on here I will believe It when I see it??

    • Kelly in Louisville says:

      Todd, are your locals in Frankfort from Lexington or Louisville? Here is the 10 day forecast highs for Louisville…Tuesday (52), Wednesday (61), Thursday (59), Friday (39 and sunny), Saturday (50), Christmas Eve (46), Christmas (52) and Wednesday (52 and rain). So, yeah, I’ll believe the models when I see it.

    • Marsha says:

      And why are you reading this blog again

  6. Danny says:

    Here we go with the dilusional models. These models are like car sales they tell you everything you want to hear (or see in this case) and once you get there its a totally different story. The storm for next week will more than likely be a lake cutter. It doesnt at all have my attention until that same map that CB just posted shows up 24hrs befire storm hits. Give it a day maybe 2 and that low will be center in Iowa.

  7. Mike says:

    We have officially hit the “Week-away-storm” period that will probably last until mid March… Always “a week away…”

  8. Kelly in Louisville says:

    I’m just curious how WKYT and Chris have Friday forecast high of 25 with snow showers and 70 miles west in Louisville, all 4 stations plus the weather channel have a forecast high of 40 with sunny skies? Saturday is forecast to be near 50 in Louisville and only 35 in Lexington? Not being a pain here, just curious how 5 forecast in one city can be so different from one in another city just down the road.

    • Todd says:

      I live in Frankfort and get Lou&lex weather stations and have noticed Louisville is about 5 degrees to warm and Chris is about 5 degrees to cold on 5 day outlooks, so I split the difference and that is most of the time close to what you get!

  9. Kat says:

    Why have our December temperatures been so far above average? I thought the large amount of blocking over Greenland, heavy snow pack in the north, and weak El Niño all pointed to average/colder than average temperatures for winter.

    I’m a weather novice though, so forgive me if I’ve got it all wrong. I don’t even care if it snows for Christmas at this point. I just want it to be COLD.

    Thanks for the frequent updates, Chris.

  10. JJTeach says:

    Thanks Chris for the update. Looking forward to hearing the latest on the Christmas storm with the overnight update!

  11. Ready4Snow says:

    If everyone would just look at the model’s(especially Euro Ensembles) and quit bickering you can clearly see the potential for something big on the 26-27th…Look at the low in north central tenn…Look at the blocking setting up in N.E Canada..There’s no way this low is gonna cut into the lakes…It’s moving east and somebody should get a major snow storm…Hopefully it’s ky so some some people will shut the hell up and quit complaining…Remember folk’s there’s potential..Better than nothing …

  12. Emerson Biggins says:

    POWER OF POSITIVITY! It’s going to happen.

  13. Todd says:

    Gotta love how some folks can’t deal with the reality of global warming, the days everyone keeps remembering are over, we are in a new world of weather now!

    • BubbaG says:

      Yep, blame it on cow toots.

      The Manbearpig approves! Let us forget that even in the 1800 and early 1900′s there were warm spells and our lives are but a data blip to the overall trends. Super cereal!

    • Ready4Snow says:

      Yep,global warming folks…we will never see winter or snow again..LOL….That’s what my local weather station just said…

  14. BubbaG says:

    Channeling my best drama “queen” here:

    Can’t we aalllll juust get aaaalllooong!?

    • Todd says:

      I respect your thoughts bubba, you have been here for the long hall, I’m not picking fights with folks on here just stating facts of the trends you have spoken about! We need a trend buster to change my mind, that just the way it is!

  15. Mike says:

    Kinda fiesty tonight…Something in the water perhaps?

    • BubbaG says:

      Until we get the near mythic trend buster in central Kentucky, I think this is the jaded climate the forum dwells in.

      Better chance this winter than last, so at least that is progress :)

  16. Danny says:

    God is great beer is good and models are crazy…..

  17. Shelley says:

    we were on our way to Louisville for a hockey game and we drove through the storm… behind us was the largest rainbow I have ever seen in my life. It was AMAZING!

  18. bjenks says:

    We have a couple winters without snow and everyone goes into a global warming frenzy. It is not CB’s or the models fault that the weather is not going the way everyone wishes it would go on a daily basis. Mother Nature unleashes her fury when she feels the time. I am with Emerson B….Think Positive and it will happen. So since 80% of the post are negative then us positive thinkers don’t stand a chance on getting even a flurry unless we hit DQ..Hell we can even get a BLIZZARD.
    I am still holding out on a cold and snowy Jan./Feb.

  19. rakat says:

    If we are in a global warming phase, then I guess we should be prepared for something extreme to happen. People blamed global warming for the Derecho we had this summer. The same applies for Hurricane/Superstorm Sandy. Global warming was said to be partially the cause for that. So, since we’ve had extreme storms in both Summer and Fall, I guess it’s Winter’s turn for the extreme. Such as a lot of ice, power outages, and such. I hope that won’t happen. However, given the trend of the past 6 months or so, there is that chance.

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