Tracking An Active Holiday Weather Pattern

Good Tuesday everyone and thanks for making KWC your stop for weather. I warned you things would get a little wild this week and Monday delivered the goods. Hail producing thunderstorms rolled across the state as our pattern kicks into overdrive this week and next. We have several big systems to track for the Christmas holiday period and these will directly impact our weather.

The next system will be another wild one as it arrives late Wednesday night and Thursday. A powerful low will work from the southern plains into the Great Lakes. That will drag a cold front across the state Thursday and this is going to raise a ruckus.

Ahead of the front: Showers and thunderstorms with temps in the 50s.

Behind the front: Snow showers and squalls and temps dropping into the upper 20s and low 30s.

That’s the progression of our weather from Thursday morning into early Thursday evening. The cold air will be announced by winds gusting from 40-50mph in during the afternoon and evening and that may cause some problems.

Snow showers, squalls and flurries will then fill the air Thursday night into Friday…

That setup will produce blizzard conditions across parts of the Lakes and could cause serious problems for Chicago. Their historic snow drought could come crashing down in a big way.

Northwesterly winds will pick up moisture from the very warm Lake Michigan and keep snow showers and flurries going across central and eastern Kentucky through much of Friday. I do expect some light accumulations out of all this. Even the GFS has finally latched on to this idea…

Temps Friday will be in the upper 20s and low 30s with gusty winds making it feel closer to 10 degrees.

The next system we have to watch looks to arrive just in time for Christmas. This is likely to be a moisture laden and energetic storm that has a major impact on holiday travelers around here and for millions of people. Low pressure is likely to work into the Tennessee Valley Christmas Day and then give way to a stronger low just to our east. The Canadian Model shows this very well..

That could get very messy across our region with snow, rain and ice before snow takes over as the second low emerges to our east.

Looking ever farther down the road we find the CFS singing a different tune than the one it gave us for this month. The model correctly forecast our massive torch of the past three weeks but now says the ice man cometh as we end the year and say hi to 2013…

  Here’s what it shows for the entire month of January…

 It looks like that model is replaying the winter of 1984/85. Brrr!

I will have another update later today. Make it a great Tuesday and take care.


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48 Responses to Tracking An Active Holiday Weather Pattern

  1. Lincoln says:

    Maybe we can get some snow showers in here this weekend, but I don’t see any accumulations.

  2. Lisa says:

    It’s never good when Kentucky is the same color blue as Alaska!!

    • bjenks says:

      It is NEVER good???? Only from April to Oct is it never good. As far as I am concerned from Nov. to March it could stay as cold as Alaska.
      Bring on the cold and snow and Emerson B…..Think Positive today people…..I am sure 15 of the next 20 posts will talk about how it (next week) won’t happen, and how it will be a lake cutter with cold rain, and how the models are out to lunch or how the local mets are saying it is going to be sunny and 60 for the next seven years
      …Winter starts on Friday and we have a shot at a little snow. Right on cue old man winter…right on cue…Jan/Feb WILL be cold and HMMMMM SNOWY!!!

  3. BubbaG says:

    CB said the ice word. Just sayin’.

  4. Wxman says:

    Remember last week when Euro and others predicted snow falling right now and GFS predicted 39 with no snow? Look outside. GFS 94-Euro 0

    • Andy Rose says:

      Who Cares? besides yourself ;)

    • Tyler says:

      also they didn’t make a prediction, just stated that its possible!! by no means did they forecast anything!

    • Wxman says:

      Just pointing out facts. GFS gets discounted all the time, yet it’s the best model. If you don’t care Andy, perhaps you should ask yourself why you’re even here. ;) And yes, there WAS a forecast made.

    • Mitch says:

      MJ and myself have given you the stats on model verifcation many times the score is much closer to EC 94, GFS 0. 10 out of 10 of my fellow national weather service meteorologists would use the EC over the GFS if only given one model. This includes Sandy which the EC had a week before the GFS.

      • BubbaG says:

        Everything is relative :)

        As far as frozen precipitation outlooks are concerned, all the models from an objective standpoint suck. It is an issue of what models suck ever least for frozen precipitation solutions.

        Hence it is almost always better to use a composite model solution based on the regression and weight of the models that are “less sucky”. All of the models have their own sensitivities to certain parameters that can create red herrings. As a result, using any one model seems scientifically nuts.

        • BubbaG says:

          Now, why the models do such a great job of outlooking ice, you mets tell me. They suck at snow, but nail ice with an R square coefficient of 1. An exaggeration, but directionally relative to point.

      • Wxman says:

        Verification is inherently flawed and worthless. Once you’ve been around long enough to see patterns, you’ll realize how real world results show GFS to be king. I really don’t understand why Americans think everything non-American is somehow better…but it’s really annoying.

    • Matthew says:

      I still wonder where these comments from CB come from. Not attacking/bashing/whatever any may want to put there I just really like to hear what knowledgeable people are thinking. I just see CB posting things such as:

      GFS is now showing a similar scenario to the other models

      GFS is coming around and now shows a similar setup

      Even the GFS has finally latched on to this idea

      And things along those lines. Not really important in all honesty. I am just trying to understand what you all see.

      I have looked at your site as well. Really like the look. Did notice you went from a White Christmas and then backed off. Just wondering if it is close enough to think the possibility is lost. I did notice, if I am understanding the GFS model correctly, that it looks like something big for the 26th-27th. That is a long way out and maybe it is nothing but even noticed the Euro seemed to show something as well.

  5. MarkLex says:

    The REASON people complain is really simple:

    It’s the weather and it’s out of our control and when it doesn’t do what we hope, we look for someone to blame in hopes that it makes it somehow right.

    Crazy really when you think about it.

    • bjenks says:

      You may be on to something here. Winter blues!!!! All the people who hate winter and the early dark days complain that it gets dark to early and it is not 70 degrees out. All the winter lovers complain about the models, no snow and it being to warm. Mother Nature can’t win in the winter.

  6. Mike M says:

    All I want it to do is get cold. With the extreme weather we’ve had this year this winter could be a trend buster. I can only hope. 14 years of false hope looking at the 7 day models has taken it’s toil.

  7. Wes says:

    The only problem….it’s the dreaded “week away” storm…LOL

    • Todd says:

      Exactly, just say we don’t no what will happen next week, we will have to wait until 24to36 hous out before we do, it is that simple, don’t pump up hope by saying lookout, big storm coming, winter storm threat, possible block buster, bad boy, and all the other hyped words!

  8. eyewall says:

    You guys can have winter. I prefer this:
    http://www.soggydollar.com/webcam.aspx

  9. rolo says:

    ok why u not wortking BAILEY?? are u going have to work XMAS EVE/DAY I figure.

  10. Russ says:

    I mentioned a wager last week that Lex goes all winter without snow. I’m just about ready to pull the trigger and set up some sort of paypal account so you guys can fiance my next Christmas. Snowless winter on the way. Possibly even <1.0" for Lex and JKL.

  11. prelude says:

    I guess if were lucky there might be some that see maybe a coating of snow Thursday night.

  12. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks, Chris. Looks like it is going to be interesting, and at leasdt cold on Christmas. Haven’t given up on a little bit of white stuff either… ;) Especially after looking at that Christmas Day possibility. Could be an interesting end to a crazy weather year, for sure. Looking forward to your thoughts on that one as it gets closer. Have a great Tuesday, everyone.

  13. rakat says:

    In WV, the NWS has issued a Winter Storm Watch for the mountains. Their forecast discussion mentions a few things. Such as the gusty winds. A wind advisory might be issued. Gusts are to be between 30 and 50 mph.

    They also say accumulating snow is possible across the state.From their discussion:
    SOME ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED…ESPECIALLY
    ACROSS THE MTNS WITH AMNTS EXPECTED TO MEET ADV LVL CRITERIA. EARLY THINKING IS 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS FAVORED NW RIDGES IN CENTRAL AND N MTNS…WITH 1 TO 3 IN VALLEYS. ACROSS SE OH AND CENTRAL/N LOWLANDS…MAY SEE AN INCH BY MORNING. WILL KEEP MENTION IN HWO.”

    We will see. It will be interesting seeing it play out. This reminds me of Superstorm Sandy. The forecasted gusts are the same.

  14. Todd says:

    Atleast snowstorms are getting a little further south, northern Illinois, Missouri and Kansas are in line tomorrow, maybe we will be next in line next week?

  15. Dara says:

    Am I the only one that thinks its pretty cool that winter storms are getting to be named storms……hope we get a named one this year lol :)

  16. chrisb says:

    first post this year….

    just wanted to get some excitement started!

    The models for the Dec 25/26 storm do not take into consideration the snow pack in IL, MO, KS, NB with the storm about to hit which will push the cold air even further south and the low track even more south….mark my words. This storm near Christmas Day (or shortly after) will put down several inches in Kentucky!

    Also, Take a look at the new years Eve storm. Ky again getting 10 inches of snow!

  17. Vinny says:

    No Snow in Kentucky? Don’t be angry, I just returned from Canada, up near the Georgian lake in Coolingwood, ON, and they have NO SNOW..!, NONE… Zilch, zip, zero, nada… And they are about 2 hours due north of Toronto… Talking to some locals and they are stunned… They should have snow on the ground by now…

    Heck, maybe Al Gore is correct…? Who knows, but it’s not just us folks…

    GO STEELERS..!

  18. WXman says:

    We still have to get through Thursday first. Prime heating of the day, negatively tilted front swinging through, 125 knot jet streak overhead, good moisture, etc. Thursday is going to be an interesting day and then that evening everything freezes over. Don’t overlook this next storm. I’m sure Chris will be harping on this heavily tomorrow.

  19. Todd says:

    Thursday looks to be the classic cold chasing the moisture out of the area across most of ky, I’m sure the usual spots in east ky will get dusted pretty good, heck TWC still saying mid to upper 40′s all the way thru Christmas after a meager 37 on Friday?

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