Talking About The Big Change Ahead

Good Tuesday evening everyone. We have a massive weather change ahead of us on Thursday and this will likely bring a heck of a round of winter to the region. Buckle up for the ride.

Here’s a breakdown:

- Thursday starts with showers and thunderstorms and temps in the 50s.

- A cold front swings through here with temps dropping below freezing from west to east during the afternoon and early evening.

- Winds will gust to between 40mph and 50mph from late Thursday into early Friday.

- Snow showers ands squalls will become likely as northwesterly winds set up. The flow coming from Lake Michigan is likely to be a strong one and this should put down a light snowfall across central and eastern Kentucky. Here’s a look at the early odds…

- I really think much of the area will pick up light accumulating snows and this could be enough to cause some travel problems. Parts of eastern and southeastern Kentucky could pick up a couple of inches if the upslope flow plays out as expected.

- Temps Friday will have a tough time getting out of the 20s, but the wind chill will make it feel like single digits at times.

Please disregard the operational models for the Christmas week storm for they know not what they do. The Ensemble runs are much different and are certainly the way to go.

More on that and some even colder models for later this month and January coming tonight. Make it a great evening and take care.


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39 Responses to Talking About The Big Change Ahead

  1. BubbaG says:

    Just as long as the word “ice” is not in an outlook, I am fine :)

  2. Weatherdadof2 says:

    Thoughts on Friday travel to NC?

  3. Coffeady says:

    Thanks, Chris. Sounds like if we get snow, it might actually stick around for a few days. Either way, sounds like fun and games. And a busy week for you! Have a great evening all , and GO UKHOOPS!

  4. JPeezy says:

    Hope so. We’ll see I guess

  5. Rick in Columbus says:

    Chris, what is your definition of “a heck of a round if winter”? An inch of snow and temps slightly above freezing or something more?

    • BubbaG says:

      CB 101 after reading about nine years of CB post trends:

      *If he does not mention it, probably not a main player

      *If he has the word “mix” or “wintry” in the outlook or forecast, some or more folks will be disappointed with the results.

      *Delays in posts once an alert has been posted usually means there is a reduction in chances, but CB just wants to make sure first.

  6. BubbaG says:

    Hey CB!

    Ever thought of doing a weather app for Android and iPhone? One that has the blog, weather maps, radar and tweet stuff.

    Sounds good, huh?! :)

  7. Bernard P. Fife says:

    Not overly excited in Monticello, although a “chance” is better than no chance.

  8. pattyversailles says:

    I’ll be working in my little office in the middle of our plant! No windows! I’ll probably miss it all!! However, I’m glad the rest of you will see it fly!! Have fun!

  9. Steph says:

    Chris,

    I live in the Huntington area and wanted to say thank you for sometimes including your old TV viewing area folks from your previous job in your updates. I check your blog every day although it is no longer for us. I am always glad when you include this area, it is very helpful and often very accurate.

    Sure miss you, but glad to see you happy and successful!

  10. mike m says:

    ive been reading this blog since dec 2010 at least once a day.ive never left a comment before.does anyone know about how long the blogs been active?seems to me like a lot of time and dedication chris puts into it and some people just veiw it to leave rude comments,that doesnt make any since when all they have to do is just get there weather somewhere else.they sort of put ya im mind of the grinch!

    • BubbaG says:

      The blog has been going on for about nine years in form or another. the early days was a joint venture with TG Shuck and then CB moved to the WV market and still had a KY centric blog on the side. No THAT is dedication and keeping a bridge open for a return :) Again CB, well played.

      • WXman says:

        I think you’re right. I started checking it out and leaving my thoughts around 2004 and you were here already weren’t you? So I think you’re about right.

        • BubbaG says:

          Correct. I am one of the “originals” back in the days of big snow talk that through the years has reduced to little snows, ice and sustained cold air talk.

          How the mighty blog has “fallen”.

          I pour one for me and one on the ground for my big snow talk homies.

          • MikeM says:

            Bubba, speaking of trends, you have broken one by the number of posts you have up before the first snow. Im hoping this is a prelude to a trendbusting winter. Problem with me is Lucy suckers me multiple times every year, as does UK football.

  11. Lincoln says:

    5 years in I want to say April. I believe it was started in 2008.

  12. endleswavz says:

    Headed to Chicago on Thursday evening… looks like we could be getting frosty and white! I’m pumped! 65 will be a mess, but the snow will be nice! Keeping my fingers crossed for every snow lover in Kentucky! Here’s to the possibility of Winter finally arriving! Thanks Chris for your hard work! I sell your product to everyone I talk “weather” with!

  13. WXman says:

    18Z run of GFS shows an over-running precip. event near the Cincinnati area. Puts down quite a bit of ice. That’s too close for comfort. This is not the first run that has showed this solution either. Having said that…I’m not biting on an ice storm right now. I agree with Chris right now that with that particular storm it’s wise to lay in wait right now.

  14. Leeannie says:

    I too am an old fan from your Huntington days! Also have lots of friends that still follow you here. Thanks for all the informative posts that I can actually comprehend! Hoping to see lots of snow this winter too!

  15. Kat says:

    I have a question for you weather buffs-

    What are the operational models vs. ensemble runs that Chris referred to in his post when discussing the Christmas week storm? I see the pictures of models that he posts, but I don’t know the difference between them.

    • Joey Wilson says:

      I believe operational models are the one “main” run of a particular model. The ensemble is an average of several possibilities of that model. Operationals are typically used for short range forecasts and ensembles best for long-range forecasts. The storm Chris is alluding to is in the long-range so he’s recommending not paying much attention to the operational models.

      • Kat says:

        That makes sense. Thanks, Joey

      • MJ says:

        You’re right Joey. Operational runs are the single run of the model. Once that is complete, the GFS is then run 20 more times with slightly different initial conditions. The operational plus the 20 ensemble runs are then averaged to give you the ensemble mean. Ensemble forecasting has more skill than a single model run. The ensembles reduce the uncertainty with the initial conditions or initial “snapshot” that the model uses to start out with. By covering the uncertainty, the ensemble mean is more likely to be closer to what happens in reality.

  16. Todd says:

    Just watched the Louisville mets, they are calling for mid 40′s and rain for Christmas and maybe a few flurries for Thursday nite Friday, such a wide difference across the weather channels, hopefully Chris nails these guys to wall on their heat miser predictions?

    • Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

      They are playing it conservative.Knowing the history of all these models,that would be the way I would bet on the out come in Vegas. The golden rule in Ky when in doubt go with the rain.

  17. Seth says:

    New 0z gfs has a very favorable track for Kentucky for the 26th-27th storm.

  18. Kat says:

    Weather Channel is saying 50 degrees for a high on Christmas Day for Southeastern KY. Heat Miser wins again :(

    I guess that’s better than 60′s or 70′s on Christmas, but I’d be thrilled to see that reduced to something in the 30-40 degree range.

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