Breaking Down The Wild Changes

Good Thursday to one and all. Today is one of those “wow” days of weather across the bluegrass state. A strong storm is rolling toward the Great Lakes and that means a wild weather swing around here. All of this continues to be part of an active pattern that continues to produce big winter storms.

Let’s hit the high notes of how things play out through Friday:

- Winds are going to be a major player during this period. Gusts of 40-50mph will be likely and this may cause a bit of damage. Make sure to secure those outdoor Christmas decorations.

- Showers and thunderstorms will march eastward this morning into the afternoon as a strong cold front works in. Very heavy rain will be likely.

- Temps will stay in the 50s into early afternoon and then drop rapidly behind the front. Readings will drop below freezing by mid to late evening.

- Snow showers and squalls will develop late afternoon in the west and then overspread the rest of the state this evening. That action will continue overnight into much of Friday for central and eastern Kentucky and will get a booster shot of moisture from Lake Michigan. My snowfall map is unchanged…

Special

- The GFS snowfall map is now pretty darn close to the idea I’ve had for the past few days…

GFS Snowfall

- Travel conditions late tonight into the first half of Friday will be very tricky. Slick spots and reduced visibilities will be likely. This is the kickoff for the busy Christmas travel period and I think a Snow Advisory is warranted for parts of central and eastern Kentucky. Impact, impact, impact.

- Highs Friday will struggle to get out of the 20s for many areas. Gusty winds of 30-40mph will make it feel like temps are in the single digits. Friday will be a very wintry day around here.

Let’s talk a little bit about the rest of the weekend into Christmas week. I’m tracking two systems that will impact our weather during this time. The first is a weak area of low pressure moving in late Sunday into Christmas Eve. This may bring a light mix of rain and snow to our region. The GFS Ensembles show the fine line we’re walking…

GFSLet’s keep an eye on that little system because there is a lot of very cold air across the northern Ohio Valley and Great Lakes and it wouldn’t take too much to tap it.

The next storm look like a big one for the eastern half of the country. Where does it go? The models have been all over the place in recent days and that trend will continue for a while longer. There is a ton of cold air that will be entrenched across the northern half of the country and one heck of a blocky look. That means any low that develops can only get so far north before giving way to another low to our east. I continue to like what the GFS Ensembles are doing…

GFS 2

The lead low gets into the Tennessee Valley and then transfers energy to a low across the Carolinas. The operational GFS is very close to that scenario, but has some feedback issues with the lead low. I just got a look at the new European Model and it’s actually colder and farther east with the first low and has much more of a heavy snow look to it.

My concern with this setup is for a period of a nasty mix of snow, rain and ice setting up very close to us. That whole mess would then change to all snow as the low to our east takes over. Again… this is still 5-6 days away so there will be lots of changes in the models. But, I just don’t see how that first low gets very far to the north in this pattern.

This has “Threat” written all over it!

I will have updates as needed today. Hold on to your hat and take care.


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82 Responses to Breaking Down The Wild Changes

  1. MarkLex says:

    Loving the snow building to the northwest. I mean, doesn’t that pretty much HAVE to happen for us to have a decent winter?

    Oh and Bubba – Trends—-Schmends!

  2. Jeff Hamlin says:

    And this just in, Lucy is on injured reserve, so no football to worry about, lol. ;)

  3. Dawnp007 says:

    Bring it on!

  4. Derek says:

    Sounds good to me. A little ankle biter now just to get us warmed up and hopefully we can get in on the real business next week. I would like to see some consistency in the models.

  5. Tori says:

    Chris,
    Thank you so much for continuing to show larger images that show Huntington,Wv. I am totally addicted to your first call for snow fall. Your shoes for a good weather blog were big to fill and lets just say that they aren’t even coming close to filling them yet. :) Thanks again and keep up the amazing job that you are doing..

  6. Joey Wilson says:

    This is looking better & better for a snow thumpin’ for at least part of KY…fingers crossed!

  7. Bryan says:

    I’ll believe it when I see it! Not being negative, just not getting my hopes up!

  8. LD says:

    Watch us get next to nothing until the day *after* Christmas. Missing a white Christmas like that would just be plain mean. #Grinch climate

  9. rolo says:

    yes we are 5-6 days out, but I will say this best looking model runs ive seen in long time for a NICE snow for SE/E KY as BAILEY said low aint goiing get to fur north, then the old school low develops just to our easy throwing MOISTURE back this way.

    yes it might not happen but not seen ALL THE PLAYERS u need for a good storm all looking good at the same time in a LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOONG time!!!!

    keep agrindingt BAILEY!!!

  10. james says:

    Chris already using the “threat” word. So you know what his thoughts are, at this time anyway.

  11. Andy Rose says:

    looks like the rain got here alot earlier than expected

    • Dara says:

      If the rain is beginning earlier than expected would that lessen the chances of snowfall because the moisture will be gone before the cold temperatures or will the moisture accompany the temperature drop and front? Just wondering……

      • Andy Rose says:

        more of a nowcast event now just have to watch the radar and see

        • Andy Rose says:

          we will still have stuff come from the lakes and thats where most the snow was coming from anyways so it may be a non-factor other than temps may drop quicker than expected

          • Danny says:

            That transition to snow should occur between 7pm and 10pm depending on where your at in the commonwealth. There might be a fetch of snow from the lakes but the small snow we get tonight will be primarily from the back side of the low will have a decent amount of residual moisture left over.

          • Dara says:

            Thanks for the reply :)

  12. Chris Mercer says:

    One thing no one has mentioned. This mild and wet December has brought us within 3 inches of normal rainfall for the year. At least “drought” is not a word we will hear for awhile. By the way, didn’t Chris state “the transition to winter will be wet” some time ago? Looks like he was right. So, i think I shall stifle my doubts on the overall winter outlook for some time.

  13. Joey Wilson says:

    Chris has been criticized for his Dec 7-14 “winter transition” comments but he wasn’t saying it would start snowing on Dec 7th. He was “saying” the atmosphere would start changing to “allow” winter weather chances like are now appearing. Fingers crossed the storms on the 26th and prior to New Year’s deliver much more than wraparound flurries!

  14. Drew says:

    Man 12z GFS would be a GREAT snowfall for us in Central KY. Looking at some early snowfall maps could be 4-8 or a little more if the GFS was accurate.

    • james says:

      Your talking about the 26th, am I correct?

      • Drew says:

        Yes, 26th and 27th. It’s only one run but the models have gone away right now with the great lakes storm idea with all the blocking to the north. See what the EURO says in about 2 hours.

    • Wxman says:

      Yeah, west KY would get the most, but west of I 75 would definitely see big snow from a track like it’s showing. This would begin as early as late Christmas night.

      • Ready4Snow says:

        Just another different run from a 100 so far…Like the trend though…Last night run’s were trending more southeast…Picking up on the blocking in canada… Hopefully it won’t go to far east…Good run for Bubba…Maybe this is the “Trend Buster”

  15. rolo says:

    SERIOUSLY a SEVERE WEATHER DAY on WKYT??????

    really are we that bored that RAIN and GUISTY winds with a cold front with some light snow on backside deserves a SEVERE WEATHER DAY?

    but I will say alot have been lull asleep by the weather etc so I guess GUSTY WINDS and a coating of snow might be SEVERE for some these days. just my opinion Bailey and dont put me in TIMEOUT .lol but if today/ tomm gets a SWD then I would expect rest of winter to get a SWD with strong cold fronts. yea its rough travel rain and wind on the roads, but IMO nothing to call SEVERE. Just my opinion though.

    man the youngsters really would be AMAZED by a REAL STORM,lol but maybe this is severe in this day and time weather.

  16. rolo says:

    I guess us 70s,80s early 90s PEEPS was living in STONE AGE as far as weather goes, im just thinking out loud.

    I mean a buddy mine just said could get a BIG ONE next week, so I ask really how much. he said

    4-6 inches.lollll that sums up how the weather indeed has changed in last 20 years when there people refereing to 4 plus as a BIG ONE.lol

    ROLO is just typing out loud, so if u dont like u can scroll on by.

  17. rolo says:

    Cris said MOST of his snowfal he predicted in his WINTER WEATHER outlook would not fall until l;ate JAN thru Feb.

    yes he indeed said transition would be a wet one, u have to go thru what we are seeing today to get to snow, u got to flip the pattern.

  18. Todd says:

    I’ll take what ever white stuff we can get tonight, and then hope for better stuff next week, atleast we seem to be getting into a more favorable pattern for now, last winter 2 week outlooks would have no hope at all for winter weather!

  19. james says:

    Yea Rolo, those who weren’t around for the 77-78 winter sure missed a real winter. Made some good $ clearing snow that winter.

  20. Wes says:

    I wonder if the NWS in Jackson will issue a Winter Weather Advisory at some point?

  21. Wes says:

    At least 2 inches of snow for us here in Harlan County…I would think that an advisory would be issued.

  22. Andy Rose says:

    NWS is predicting 2 inches of snow for Harlan? did not know that

  23. Wes says:

    I didn’t say that the NWS was predicting 2 inches…I was basing that off of what Chris put up.

    • Andy Rose says:

      well NWS issues WWA based on thier forecast when i looked at thier discussion they said up to 2 inches in the highest elevations of SE KY. So unless they change don’t expect a WWA

  24. Todd says:

    If tonight’s snow is more of a scattered snow squall here or their some folks might get 2 or 3 inches in a few locations, I bet most will be lucky to see the coating, hope for a overachiever area wide :)

  25. prelude says:

    Paducah has drop to 42 degress reported official wind gust of 50 mph.

  26. Wxman says:

    12Z Euro bombs us. Same solution as yesterday.

  27. Chris Mercer says:

    Temp up to 54 here in Lawrenceburg with lighter skies. Gonna be some crash to put snow on the ground here by the morning.

  28. Joey Wilson says:

    Temp dropping and winds howling at 1:16 pm CST (2:16 EST). Feeling and looking more like “real” winter by the minute. :)

  29. Coffeelady says:

    Well, we have had a break in the rain, and a little bit of sunshine here in Somerset. Clounds are rolling back in fromt the West and southwest though, so we will see. I am thinking that the front is not close to us yet as our temps are still in the low 50s. (52 at last check.) But the wind is sure howling! I expect temps to start dropping before too long.
    Chris, any changes to your thought patterns?

    • Joey Wilson says:

      Tie down everything outside! I’m in Owensboro and came home earlier to find my outdoor stuff scattered in my neighborhood! Howling wind and temp dropping fast as I sit here in my kitchen :)

  30. Todd says:

    Will that wrap around moisture make it to central ky? Hey Chris, how about a update on this severe wkyt weather day, you are being to quite for us geeks!

  31. Ready4Snow says:

    WOW…..finally got a look at the euro….Talk about old school..eastern ky gets crushed…still a long way to go…..not good to be in the bulls eye this early..

    • BubbaG says:

      Next week could be like the previous snow (though a little colder) that was mainly higher elevations. Kind of like when in the Smokies and while in town, cold rain and mix, but starts snowing as you drive up the mountains. Does not take that far to start seeing white stuff.

  32. rolo says:

    yep READY4SNOW next week BIG DADDY looking nice, this 3rd day in row actually it been looking GOOOOD.

  33. rolo says:

    as stated earlier havnt seen ALL THE PLAYERS lined up like they are in looooong time as far as the posible BIG DADDY next week, everything u need for one is in place.

    alot times u see models showing a good snow but u can look at all the PLAYERS etc and say NO WAY it going do that etc.

    not said it this year yet, but OLD SCHOOL is in the DECK for next week, but will it hit the board or be one of the BURN CARDS!! we wait and see!!!

  34. chrissomerset says:

    Winter weather advisory from 10pm tonight til 7pm Friday for southern and eastern Kentucky!!

  35. BubbaG says:

    Next week seems more of a mix than anything else. Not seeing a big or even mid size snow. Heck, I am beginning to wonder on the expected light snow through Friday. Seems the moisture may mainly be tapped out by the time the cold air settles.

    Then again, based on the small snow expectation, the forecast is already considering that.

  36. Andy Rose says:

    Tuesday Night Rain likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy, with a low around 40. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
    Wednesday Rain likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy, with a high near 52. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

    Is that amusing or what? That’s for this Tuesday and Wednesday when the Euro bombs us with snow the JKL NWS is saying Thunderstorms and 50s

  37. prelude says:

    NWS out of Louisville is saying first signifcant snow of the season is possible for Wednesday in there discussion.

  38. Ready4Snow says:

    still a ways to go rolo…lots of things for the models to digest…personally im a little suspect of the blocking being shown..anyways hope someone in ky gets a good one…Hope bubba gets his dome buster…

  39. Go Cards says:

    The NWS in Louisville mentions significant snowstorm is possible next week in the newest AFD.

    • Go Cards says:

      Oops sorry prelude. Didn’t see you already posted this. Lets hope it works out. Everyone is gonna be going crazy these next few days.

      • Danny says:

        I hear ya. Im just glad to see the NWS out of Louisville seeing the potential at least they are not turning a blind eye to the possibility of a winter storm developing

  40. Todd says:

    Still about a week away fools gold on any models forecast, come on folks you know better, if it shows the GFS agreeing by Monday then the weather world might get excited?

  41. Marsha says:

    Where is all the wind here in Morgan co I have not see any wind here at all

  42. Ready4Snow says:

    everyone should know the nws are going to be conservative until 2or3 days out….what was there forecast 5 days ago for friday?..As for next week its still early..At least something is showing up on the models…Unlike last winter when nothing was showing at all in the mid or LR…

  43. Aaron C. says:

    Curious as to how the snow is going to make it to us tonight? All the moisture in Illinois is moving to the east and northeast….

  44. eyewall says:

    I’m on the 8th floor of a building in downtown Lexington, and sounds like my office windows are about to blow out.

  45. Mike M says:

    Just when I was wonderingnwhen the winds would start, Lo and Behold.

  46. MarkLex says:

    Marsha –

    You haven’t had any wind there today?? Seriously?

    Here in Lexington it has been absolutely howling and still is .

  47. alena says:

    lost power once here in Estill for about a minute. Back on now.

  48. Andy Rose says:

    winds are really kicking in Knox atm

  49. Andy Rose says:

    20 degree temp difference between Chris and NWS for Wednesday

    • BubbaG says:

      Watershed moment IMO. If CB is correct, the National Warming Service (worded on purpose) uses standard outlook non thought about data, so disregard as a reference.

      If the NWS is correct, CB would be incorrect and we may be in the same push-out cycle as last year, “Next week” and cold rain next week.

      As far as “But it is only fall/early technical winter”, the same things were said last year too. I think CB has a 75% chance of being correct and the NWS 25%. This winter though should have better snow shots than last year, regardless.

  50. Chris Shafer says:

    Looks like majority is going north and east of us.

  51. Ready4Snow says:

    lol..toss this run of the gfs…it knows not what it does…

  52. Andrew says:

    Getting a little ice now in Lexington…Palomar area

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