Christmas Week Thoughts

Good Friday evening. Snow showers and squalls are finally winding down across eastern Kentucky. Some of these snow bands dropped quite a bit of the white stuff. Several spots reported 4″-5″ of the white stuff. Other areas of central and eastern Kentucky picked the expected coating to an inch.

Let me start out by throwing out a big kudos to the National Weather Service in Jackson. They were ahead of the game by putting out the Winter Weather Advisory for their entire area. I cannot say the same about the other NWS offices. We always talk about IMPACT, IMPACT, IMPACT when issuing advisories. But, that seems to get lost in the shuffle way to often. 76 separate accidents during the morning commute in Lexington is proof enough of the snows impact.

Ok… let’s talk about what happens next.

A weak system moves across the region late Sunday into Christmas Eve. This will produce some light rain that may mix with a little wet snow as Santa arrives Monday night.

Christmas Day looks cold with temps in the 30s with clouds increasing ahead of the next storm to impact the state. This developing winter storm could deliver heavy snow to much of Kentucky and surrounding areas Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Take a look at the European Model…

Euro

The model has been very consistent with that track and several other models have shown something similar. Just for fun… here is what that particular model run shows for snowfall…

Euro 2

Again… that’s one run of one model. Take it with the entire salt shaker. That said… there is growing evidence this storm will put down snow across the state. The blog may go into Threat mode later tonight or Saturday.

While we’re on it… I already have my eye on next potential storm for the end of next week into the following weekend. Winter is here!

Enjoy the evening and take care.


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48 Responses to Christmas Week Thoughts

  1. Andy Rose says:

    Please move further south by about 75 miles LOL 3 inches pfft ;)

  2. rolo says:

    well tx BAILEY u nasiled this one. well we need about a 75 or so miles shift tad futher east with the next one, but we always get the other a north,north west.

    but look like KY going get 6-12 inches of sno as it looks foe east central on north,nwest etc with 4-76 SE but if we got a s/se 75 miles or mile track then BOOM for SE KY.

    anyway I see here is whole state going recieve a WIDESPREAD SNOW.

  3. Sandman says:

    I like the look of this next storm, hope it pans out. More snow the better!!!

  4. Joey Wilson says:

    Late afternoon NWS Paducah forecast discussion is talking up to four inches and maybe more. I can’t remember seeing Paducah talk specific amounts this far from the actual event. They must have a growing sense that this will verify. Based on the map Chris shows, that may prove to be too conservative. I HOPE SO! Bring on the heavy snow!!!!!

  5. KP says:

    Re: today’s forecast

    Chris nailed it.
    Just a few days ago my hubby commented that another local Lex station was 12 degrees warmer than Chris for today. I said Chris will be right. The other station lowered their temps as of yesterday, but Chris had it right days ago. Good job!

  6. BJ says:

    What are the roads like on 23 south between Paintsville and Kenova, WV? Can anyone tell me?

  7. Ready4Snow says:

    Looks like a lot of southern ky is on the rain to snow line…Dread the shift west at the last moment..lol…All we need SANTA is a little shift south east…

  8. Woodsman says:

    Have around 10″ of the white stuff, still coming down hard. I expect well over a foot by morning here in eastern WV.

  9. Mitch says:

    Some of the secondary models actually have the most snow further southeast of our region. I came home for Christmas for a nice snow not to see my apartment back in NJ get it. Right now this looks good. I’m still in caution Mode. Many times for the past decade we have had disapointment. That 12z EC was also close to being mostly rain for many in Central KY. However a good bet at this point would be for some snow accumulation Wednesday. BTW I work for the NWS up in NJ, I post here on my own time and I’m not representing the local NWS.

    • Kat says:

      Does it still look good for southern indiana?

    • Robbie says:

      I like that the Euro ensembles and the GFS ensembles both support the Euro operational model. DT at WxRisk has been rather bullish on the potential for snow throughout KY and also wrote in comment on his Facebook page he does not see this storm as a Miller A. That would mean the UKMet and GEM are likely not correct. The Euro has been reasonably consistent about a track through TN and into eastern KY.

    • feederband says:

      This storm is still offshore and until it comes ashore, the models are not credible.

      • BubbaG says:

        What he said.

      • WXman says:

        Well I don’t know that I’d go that far. If they weren’t credible at all why would we run them beyond 48 hours? At this point you’re not going to see GFS or ECMWF move a whole lot. There’ll be minor changes maybe but what you see at this point is going to be pretty close to what we get.

        Once the upper air sampling can be ingested, of course that’ll help solidify things.

    • Coffeady says:

      Hi Mitch! Nice to hear from you! Hope things are good for you in New Jersey. But nice to have you home for the holidays!

    • Crystal In Pikeville says:

      Hi Mitch Merry Christmas check in more often.I hope you were not affected by “Sandy”.

  10. JJTeach says:

    Here’s to hoping this evening’s model runs continue to show a “threatening look” for Kentucky!!

  11. MarkLex says:

    I was watching TWC earlier and they displayed a map in motion of the potential for next week. The track looked perfect for us.

    Oh well – I can see, drama, excitement, and disappointment all being possibilities the next few days!

  12. MarkLex says:

    No comma after “see”

  13. james says:

    18z snowfall chart. Heaviest snow right through central Ky. http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_120HR.gif

  14. SSGARMSTRONG says:

    What does it look like for muhlenberg co?

    • Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

      Your right, 72 hr rule.

      • Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

        Sorry I posted my reply to the wrong person,but while I am here all you have to do is look at Chris snow totals. If you know the geography of Ky that will give you an indication. My guess is that you are in the+ 12″ zone. Is your county is between Henderson & W.K.P.?

  15. Todd says:

    Going to wait until Monday before I take the models eye candy to heart, been through to many disappointments to get fired up 5 days out! Play nice snow gods you owe us some payback!

  16. Lincoln says:

    At least we have something to get a little bit excited about, just got back from Southern Lights and dear lord was it cold. I live in southern Lex, looks like we got maybe a half an inch, maybe.

  17. Coffeady says:

    Well as usual, Chris nailed it. Today we had snow showers with little accumulation here but plenty of cold and wind. Not bad for the first day of winter. Hoping Santa will leave a little “snow magic” behind for all of us

  18. Micah says:

    When do the next Module runs come out?

  19. Marsha says:

    Wxman what about eastern ky west liberty

  20. Mike says:

    IWBIWISI Wait till the Mexican weather balloons get wind of this threat. They will sort it out for sure!

  21. Go Cards says:

    Sunday night or Monday morning is when models should have this storm pinned down. Yes there is a storm but for whom?

  22. Mitch says:

    the 00z gfs also had a sleet look for a few hours as well during the storm before a change to snow for the Lexington region. Candian has come further west with the most snow for southeast KY.

    • Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

      I do not feel sorry for SE. Ky. they already receive the majority of the big accumulating snows. Let the folks in Lou, Lex, & F.fort areas share in this one. Is that too much to ask! I mean I want everybody to have a decent snowfall but my area of the state is well overdue.

      • Todd says:

        Agree with ya on that, south east has had many more snow systems lately down that way, central ky is overdue!

      • Andy Rose says:

        incorrect Knox laurel whitley hasn’t had big snows in a long long time either but we will remember that if the storm actually catches us instead of the lou lex Frankfort area ;)

  23. Ryan says:

    I hope we get more than a foot in Bowling Green. We had 1 whole inch all of last winter and it’s been more than a decade since we had a good 8+ inch snow.

    • Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

      John Belski who was the weatherman that made me interested in reading weather blogs,sited that we will not know for sure how much accumulation any area will receive until the low is east of the Rockies.

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