Good Monday and Merry Christmas Eve. If you asked Santa for a busy winter pattern, it looks like he is going to be delivering the goods over the next few weeks. We have an action packed pattern loaded with storms taking aim at our region. We have one weak system working through today, but all eyes are focused on Christmas Day through Thursday for a monster winter storm that will impact a large chunk of the country.
Let’s start with today and work forward. Scattered showers will roll across the state and, just like Sunday, there’s the potential for a light mix at times… especially in the north. The precipitation ends overnight with temps dropping toward the upper 20s and low 30s.
Christmas Day finds us turning out attention to a developing winter storm across the western Gulf. The setup I’m seeing may produce widespread severe weather and tornadoes across the deep south. Yes.. tornadoes on Christmas Day at the same time that parts of Oklahoma and Arkansas get shut down by a snowstorm.
This storm will then roll northeastward into the Tennessee Valley by Wednesday morning. The recent models have trended with a farther eastward tracking low and a slightly quicker transfer of energy to a low in the mid atlantic states. The GFS didn’t even have this second low until recently and the end result is a slightly colder look…
This thing is far from being etched in stone and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this lead low trend a little farther eastward across the Tennessee Valley. If you want snow… you want this low to track just to the south and east of the state.
For now, I’m not going to make any changes to the threat map I put out last night…
I want to see if the models continue with their eastward trend today before getting much more specific than that. I will get you guys a first call out this afternoon.
Even though I’m not getting into it too much tonight, the system for this weekend continues to look like a snow producer for the entire region.
Merry Christmas Eve and take care.