Merry Christmas Eve

Good Monday and Merry Christmas Eve. If you asked Santa for a busy winter pattern, it looks like he is going to be delivering the goods over the next few weeks. We have an action packed pattern loaded with storms taking aim at our region. We have one weak system working through today, but all eyes are focused on Christmas Day through Thursday for a monster winter storm that will impact a large chunk of the country.

Let’s start with today and work forward. Scattered showers will roll across the state and, just like Sunday, there’s the potential for a light mix at times… especially in the north. The precipitation ends overnight with temps dropping toward the upper 20s and low 30s.

Christmas Day finds us turning out attention to a developing winter storm across the western Gulf. The setup I’m seeing may produce widespread severe weather and tornadoes across the deep south. Yes.. tornadoes on Christmas Day at the same time that parts of Oklahoma and Arkansas get shut down by a snowstorm.

This storm will then roll northeastward into the Tennessee Valley by Wednesday morning. The recent models have trended with a farther eastward tracking low and a slightly quicker transfer of energy to a low in the mid atlantic states. The GFS didn’t even have this second low until recently and the end result is a slightly colder look…

GFS

The Canadian Model is very similar…Canadian

This thing is far from being etched in stone and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this lead low trend a little farther eastward across the Tennessee Valley. If you want snow… you want this low to track just to the south and east of the state.

For now, I’m not going to make any changes to the threat map I put out last night…

Special

I want to see if the models continue with their eastward trend today before getting much more specific than that. I will get you guys a first call out this afternoon.

Even though I’m not getting into it too much tonight, the system for this weekend continues to look like a snow producer for the entire region.

Merry Christmas Eve and take care.


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90 Responses to Merry Christmas Eve

  1. Lincoln says:

    If the eastward trend continues there will be many people excited. Including me! All we can do is hope.

  2. Bill L says:

    What is causing the ‘eastward trend’? I sure hope it is real!

  3. Go Cards says:

    Merry Christmas everyone.

  4. Go Cards says:

    I wouldn’t say it was a trend. The GFS did move east but it was only one run. Basically you have Euro and maybe now GFS battling the NAM and various other models that are more west. Its gonna need more shifting to the SE to change the outcome.

  5. MikeM says:

    Chris still believes it so all I can do is hope.

  6. MikeM says:

    Moderated again

  7. KG4KBU says:

    Also folks there is a major threat for severe weather in the mid and deep south. You can follow a lot of info. about that over at weathernation tv http://www.facebook.com/weathernation

    • KP says:

      I spent all my early years in Houston and Austin. I wore shorts and tank tops in many a Christmas morning photo, but I don’t remember ever dealing with severe weather.

  8. Bernard P. Fife says:

    Anyone all in for a snow maker this weekend?? Ha Ha Ha

  9. casper from berry ky says:

    Wishing for snow here in berry ky We just bought 4 new sleds for the kids so were praying cause this will be there first cause there all from florida merry christmas everyone.

  10. weather blog troll says:

    Go east young models!

    Merry Christmas Eve to All

  11. bjenks says:

    To Chirs Baily and all my fellow blog friends….Hope you all and your families have a very Merry Christmas…..If I run into Santa tonight I will have a couple shots of Wild Turkey with him and ask him to go up and pull that Low a little futher to the east so we all get a nice snow out of this system on Wednesday.
    If it is all rain so be it as it is what has come to be expected out of these southern systems for the past eight years. I love the hype of the models and comments that follows….Kinda of like that shiney new bike you thought you were going to unwrap Christmas morning only to be another sweater…HA HA…..As it looks some of us are still in the game if this Low can push futher East. THINK POSITIVE AND THINK SNOW!!!! MERRY CHRISTMAS again as there is much more to think about besides snow!!!!

  12. LD says:

    The GCM (Grumpy Cat Model) continues to show the system trending east toward should-have-never-believed-it-was-going-to-snow-in-the-first place.
    I bet you can guess what the GCM shows for the next system as well.

    http://memeblender.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/grumpy-cat-christmas-theme.jpg

    ((shhh, Merry Christmas everyone!))

  13. Kyguy2016 says:

    Looks like it might be a mostly rain event here in Owensboro… I sure hope not. I was really looking forward to breaking our 23 month streak with no measurable snowfall.

    • Joey Wilson says:

      Don’t give up yet. Owensboro is only one county away from WSWatches to our west and that’s so close that we could still get a hit.

  14. rolo says:

    next weekend storm,lollllllllllllllllll

    folks the models are set, NO SNOW for 95 percent of the state, now yes we might see whjae we got other day in few spots, but that be OHIO RIVER counties at best.

    this storm is done,over as it has been since Saturday. What HAPPEN TO THREAT MODE!! a false trigger it was. I have to redneck sum, it the holiday season.

    went from WSTORM THREAT MODE to a wimper.

  15. KRinRichmond says:

    Well, as usual, the weather channel shows the low right on top of central KY and the snow off to the west. Swing and miss again for us. Must be the ole GFS model again. It’s not a snow friendly model. Have a good Christmas eve.

  16. Bengalfan says:

    Chris didn’t have the heart to say merry Christmas Eve , threat is gone for most of ky. ..oh we’ll. I’m am excited to open this gift in front of me, inside it says……….” NEXT WEEK”

    What is the JET STREAM doing right now

  17. work says:

    Good luck everybody.

    And remember… 10% of every Christmas present you open belongs to your union leaders.

  18. Tominlou says:

    Henry Margusity’s snow map as of this morning still shows Louisville and the Ohio River counties in on the game….?

    And in the 6″+ zone for Louisville. I HAD hope, but not sure I believe this. Still, a little more hope now. Dying to get the plow truck out.

    http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/meteomadness/maps-for-the-snowstorms-and-severe-weather/3114006

    • Micah says:

      Yes and central KY with 3-6″ and eastern KY with 1-3″! Thinly if there was no hope why would he post that?

      • Andy Rose says:

        and SE Ky with 0

        • Russ says:

          At least we know we’re in for a cold rain. Our friends north of us are hanging on to false hope with these ridiculous model. Only part of KY that will see a good now will be far west and maybe far northern KY. I honestly don’t see why we do this to ourselves every year. Winters here make UK football look like Alabama. Might as well get used to 40 degree rains and lake cutting storms.

          • BubbaG says:

            I think rain is a player even for folks that get mainly snow- regardless of how much falls. Living in Fencetucky in the winter is a hard nut life :)

    • Danny says:

      You know with this storm there is some crazy wild forecast being thrown out there. It seems like Henry is still this late in the game in his eyes being a applachian runner despite what the models are saying. I’ve seen forecast for the Ohio River county’s from a dusting to as much as a foot of snow. The Ohio River county’s I would have my guard up way way to many variables with you all’s forecast. It seems to be throwing alot of mets off making a confident forecast for you folks.

    • Go Cards says:

      Henry just throws a map out there that covers the whole region. He can say Louisville is gonna get 6″ and when it ends up 100 miles north he can claim he was right. Might as well make a map of the whole USA and say it will snow here.

  19. WendyT says:

    I’m so tired of cold rain and MUD! Go east please.

  20. pattyversailles says:

    I’ll be patient as always and wait to see what falls from the sky. I’ll appreciate in weather we get(Please let it be snow) and be thankful for it.

  21. rolo says:

    WINTER STORM WATCHES going up in the areas as predicted for best chance of snow, i could see FLASH FLOOD WATCH for our area of state in S/SE KY

  22. Mike S says:

    New NAM coming out…the pages take so long on my computer.
    I am bothered by the westward shift from the NAM
    One of the analogs I saw yesterday suggested another low forming along the Carolinas where a transfer of energy would occur, which was ironically, GFS-biased.
    However, that still put light amounts of snow on the backside of the other low for our region, including Louisville.

    Already made my First Call for Snowfall on my blog. But I might cheat and see what the latest NAM run shows and tweak the amounts.

    Here’s hoping for an eastward shift….

    • Mike S says:

      Latest 12z NAM shifts east…A much snowier and less icy solution for many in Indiana. Ice/sleet could still be a problem for some. Extreme northern and western KY are in now for a possible winter storm. Wouldn’t be surprised for the Watch to be adjusted east and slightly south. Have to wait for a couple more runs to see how we’re trending.

  23. Russ says:

    Well, here we go again. Snow on the proverbial radar for next weekend. Didn’t we learn our lesson with last Winter. In other news, severe wx season only 3 months away. Winter has been a lost cause here for years.

  24. kygal says:

    merry christmas to you and your family chris! thanks for all that you do! and one more thing, we miss you in the ashland area! happy new year too!

  25. Danny says:

    NWS discussion out of Paducah is very interesting they are going with a winter Storm Watch. The low has made landfall further south in the Pacific then expected and furthermore want to see if the model’s will catch on to this.

    • Micah says:

      Does that mean it could shift snow further east?

      • Danny says:

        Yeah that’s exactly what there concern is. 12z nam run has shifted east. Will see what the other models trend.

      • Robbie says:

        Sure. Just go to Joe Bastardi’s twitter feed and look at the NAM snowfall map he just posted. It has shifted the snows to the South and East. Essentially, the NAM has 6 inches of now on the Indiana side of the Ohio River and a dusting on the Kentucky side. For instance, Clark County in Indiana could see up to 6 inches while Louisville gets a half inch. Very sharp cut off.

  26. james says:

    On the 12z nam snowfall map, looks like far northern ky. counties are in the 6-8 in. range. Expect to see wsw issued for those counties, along with the western ky. counties.

  27. I seem to be just one county away from the counties in the Winter Storm Watch. I think I’ll pick a few extras at the store just in case.

    • Joey Wilson says:

      Lisa, Spencer County IN to our north and McLean County KY to our southwest are both in the WSWatch so Owensboro “kinda” is too. Not officially but might as well be. I wouldn’t be surprised if we’re officially in it by this evening. If the track for this continues to edge to the east and south, we could be in a nice sweet spot to get several inches. Keep hoping!

  28. Trudy Kelly says:

    Thanks for the updates. Your the best. :O) I check my email every morning and evening looking for ur blogs. Have a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to u and ur famly.

  29. james says:

    Right after the low goes east of central ky., looks like the upper level temps support snow, but the surface level temps are still to warm. Will the precip fall as snow and melt on contact, or will the snow melt somewhere between the upper and surface level and fall as rain? Can Chris, MJ, WxMan, or anbody answer this?

  30. BubbaG says:

    Unless CB sees something others are not (Well, he IS good and it has happened before), looks like storm threat mode is going to be downgraded for most of us. Still seems listing the whole state in the first place yesterday was too general and facilitated false hopes, but I am conditioned to think pragmatically. Of course, there is a fine line between being pragmatic and cynical. I try to avoid the Dark side when possible.

  31. dawnp007 says:

    Hype or no hype; snow or no snow. My kids are alive and heatlthy. I am blessed. Merry CHRISTmas to all of you.

    • BubbaG says:

      Agreed!

      CB is not hyping, but posting his thoughts BEFORE a forecast. Threat = chance and not a forecast :) I am just dwelling on the semantics.

  32. Wayne says:

    I have a youth group trip planned for Gatlinburg that leaves from Hopkinsville on Saturday morning. What’s the info on this “next” storm. I need to start considering contingencies if snow and/or ice is in the forecast for Friday night and/or Saturday morning. Nashville stations all saying nothing but rain.

  33. Todd says:

    TWC is forecasting thunderstorms for Frankfort Wednesday Nite, wow what a flip flop from a few days ago, NWS saying may 1/2 inch of snow on backside Thursday morning, I hope Chris can scoot this thing farther east, lf not I guess the snow dome wins again, and Bubbas trend buster will have to wait AGAIN!

  34. Rick in Columbus says:

    Bring on the 6-12 inches!

  35. craig says:

    From Belski’s Blog
    Updated Monday at 11:45 AM….. Merry Christmas Eve to you……
    Here is the latest 4 inch snow chart from the HPC.
    As you can see, it is all north…..
    HOWEVER…. the new 12Z runs are trending at least 50 miles to the southeast. Not enough yet to bring heavy snow to Louisville but if the correction trend continues into tomorrow, we could be talking a decent snow for Louisville.

    As of now…..here are the accumulation forecasts from the NWS….
    No specific numbers are listed but the NWS Louisville does not mention any accumulation for Louisville.
    NWS Indy has moderate accumulations for Indy and Bloomington and heavy accumulations for Terre Haute and Lafayette.

    This is still a changing situation. I will post the new HPC snow map later. I say look for it to be more to the south than the current one. If there is no further shift south…Louisville still has potential for at least an inch or two and maybe a little more.

  36. trent says:

    off the florida keys..theres a place called kokomo.thas where you wanna go to get away from it all lol

  37. Todd says:

    It is amazing how they are forecasting 8 or more inches of snow in central Arkansas way far south west of KY, and then the snow turns almost due north to avoid 95% of KY, something smells about that forecast, in the past when Arkansas has got big snows most of KY gets a decent snow to, I guess in about 48 hours we shall see??

  38. Todd says:

    It’s about getting to the point of the models to SHIFT or get off the pot. Think east shift, Christmas Miracle!

  39. Robbie says:

    Wasn’t someone in the comment section yesterday singing the praises of the GFS about how it was going to be right with its warmer more western track that would take the storm into the Great Lakes?

    Seems the Euro was a lot closer to the mark with one Low moving into the eastern part of the state and then transferring to another Low somewhere in Virginia.

  40. BubbaG says:

    Nope- Too late CB! You have left the entire state in threat mode for almost a day and a half now, so too late to turn back! You and Rolo are on set on absolute opposite ends of the spectrum ;)

    Ownership :) ;) :)

  41. rolo says:

    folks easteward trend u have to have it moving into the VA/CAROLINA TO DO ANY GOOD HERE, THE LEAD LOW OVERT TOP SE/ECENT KY is not helping u.TODD that cause ARK be on the NORTHWEST side of low as most of ky be on other side the WARM AIR rotaing side. as it pulls cooold air wrap round the other side.

    we are JINX INKY, this was the perfect set up and it still aint going hit.

    I am not mad, sad but I rather have eltric etc anyway sop forget bout a snow. would like see a TRUE OLD SCHOOL that b eing 12 to 18 inches with zero cold behind it, but its not happening.

    • Danny says:

      Depends where your at in KY if your in northern or western ky or counties along the Ohio River with another 50 to 100 mile shift to the east those folks would be right for a good measureable snow.

  42. rolo says:

    BUBBA what u saying, BAAILEY been out threat mode since Sunday morning.

  43. rolo says:

    no BUBBA I was saying a WHITYE XMAS last week around trhis same time, yes I was. but if ur keeping up I changed up several days ago after seeing what was going on. I think last Tuesday/WED i was on snow for XMAS, but round friday I change my forcast. read last 3 days or so u see I said OHIO RIVER counties at best for ny snow,

  44. craig says:

    Check out the NAM snowfall map posted by Joe Bastardi
    http://t.co/4xNTkRKf

  45. Robbie says:

    DT has just posted some high resolution maps from the new 12Z Euro on his Facebook page. Rain might change to snow in Louisville around the midday, but it looks like the heavier precipitation will already be north and east. Southeast KY looks to stay all rain according the maps he’s provided. I guess we’ll just have to see if the storm coming ashore farther south has any bearing on the track by the time it gets here.

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