A Yuletide Update

Good Monday afternoon and Merry Christmas. I wanted to drop by for a quick update on our developing winter storm. The morning model runs of the NAM and GFS continued to trend a bit farther eastward with the lead low across eastern Kentucky.

With that in mind… I made some adjustments to my winter storm update map. This brings our Ohio River counties from Covington to Louisville very close to the highest impact area…


It’s not going to take much more of an eastward adjustment to get more of the state into the highest impact zone. We still have a lot of time and model runs before this thing is set in stone.

As of now… A Winter Storm Watch is now out for parts of western Kentucky…

WarningsI wouldn’t be surprised to see more counties added to that later today.

I will try to get you an update later this evening, but it is Christmas Eve. Given my history… I will probably find the time to sneak one in. πŸ™‚

Merry Christmas and take care.

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57 Responses to A Yuletide Update

  1. Andy Rose says:

    Thanks Mr Bailey

  2. BubbaG says:

    Looks like north Madison as usual is right on the lower end gradient (as usual), so I buy it! It is what it is.

  3. feederband says:

    Merry Christmas everybody. Can’t wait for 24 hours of A Christmas Story. Ho Ho Ho. Don’t give up north central KY.

  4. Joey Wilson says:

    Had my family Christmas party yesterday so I’m enjoying being at home monitoring a handful of websites keeping eyes on this event. I’m in Owensboro so another east shift could put me in a very sweet spot πŸ™‚

    For those of you who won’t see much from this system, there’s others coming and it appears that it will stay cold for the next 2-3 weeks in the long-range models.

  5. Ready4Snow says:

    You have to like what the models are showing…In 2 run’s the low went from going over central ky to now eastern ky…IF the next 2 run’s follow the trend central ky could well get in on the action..So Santa let the model’s shift another 150 miles south east..

    • BubbaG says:

      The only catch is if those temperatures on the right are correct, it whatever falls will not be around for long at daylight.

    • upslope says:

      The trend has been further south..hoping the Euro follows suit..I am hoping the Low gets wrapped up and good deformation banding sets up on the western side of the storm…any mets want to chime in on this possibility? This would be our only hope of seeing significant accumulations here in eastern Kentucky. However, not sure if the dynamics are in place for this to happen.

  6. Leeannie says:

    Oh goody…..more rain for western West Virginia…..Always a bridesmaid, never a bride………

  7. JJTeach says:

    Will be anxiously awaiting what the evening model runs show!

  8. ben c says:

    Looking like by the time it gets here,Central Ky will be the bulls eye with 8-12″….and then 2 days later another 6-8″ and several more storms marching right at us. Has the looks of being a historic snow depth after all is said and done….tnx Chris

  9. Robbie says:

    Here is the forecast prediction from Joe Bastardi’s son, Garrett. Notice the track he has for the low. This is essentially what his Father has been forecasting as well, despite what the GFS has said the last two days. For most of the state, that should be a great track for snow, but apparently not this time.


  10. Crystal In Pikeville says:

    Merry Christmas Chris and everyone.My sis from Indy called me to rub it in she is suppose to get up to 8 inches lol,I told her I would just keep my cold rain lol,no I would love snow but what can we do????? Rolo are you having any Christmas Spirits? Merry Christmas everyone!!!!!!!

  11. Gwenda Huff Johnson says:

    Come on Chris…..just a little bit farther east…Elliott county is in the crossroads. What does that mean?

  12. Chris Mercer says:

    Well, with the Blizzard watch being issued, we can now confirm this is December 22, 2004 all over again, except a little further North and West. This will be twice Western Kentucky has gotten bombed in the past eight years and nada in Central Kentucky. Give up snow lovers!

    • Dee says:

      NEVER!!!! lol

    • Chris Mercer says:

      May I add I live in the Lexington Metro and yes, I’ve had snow in the past eight years, and some good seasonal snow totals but mostly from clippers, and 2 to 3 inch snowfalls. I’ve never had anything approaching what Western KY received in 2004 and now appears to be in line or this time. The last time one storm provided more than six inches of snow here was in 1998. That’s a long time! Louisville, Paducah, Evansville, Jackson, Cincy, have all had snowfalls greater than six inches in that time frame. I’m all on the Bubba bandwagon now!

    • Thomas says:

      I live in Murray, KY and although we are western KY it looks like we will be too far southeast from the rain/snow line to have any major impacts. Local weather is saying an inch maybe two for us, but 45 miles northwest like Paducah blizzard conditions. Just hope for the southeast trend myself. πŸ™‚

  13. rolo says:

    hmm yes i started out last week this time saying snow for us, but Saturday i changed my forcast to mainly OHIO RIVER north and west. well whaT YA know BLIZZARD WATCH few counties, hey when u see something that says ur original thoughts were wrong u swollow ur pride and change. BUBBA G and I indeed did that Frtiday into Saturday.

    BAILEY did grteat job with this, he saw what alot of saw issuded THREAT MODE but soon he took it back as he saw the changes.

    tx BAILEY.

    cant rule out T STORM/heavy rains S/SE KY with few creek rises.

  14. rolo says:

    Crystal I just stop by the BARN as we have sales in M,ANCHESTER now, bought be some wine and segram 7. but no drinks yet gotta go to my brothers in a few for dinner and presents.

    but yes I be feeling no pain soon, actrually already.lol I have 2 days off work today and tomm for I am back to the horses in NYC,CALI and FLA.

  15. Micah says:

    What time do the next runs come out?

  16. Aaron Carrington says:

    So as usual, Clark Co is so close,yet so far away!

  17. Aaron Carrington says:

    And also I might add- Winter weather in central Ky sucks donkey doo doo!

  18. Robbie says:

    The 18Z NAM is starting to toll out. It looks to my untrained eye the storm is a bit further to the east at 18 UTC on the 26th. If I’m wrong about that, so what. It’s an internet comment section.

  19. Kyguy2016 says:

    New tweet from CB: “@Kentuckyweather: Latest run of the NAM continues the eastward and colder trend. #kywx”

    Looking better, I guess?

    • Joey Wilson says:

      I’d say anyone west of I-65 could still potentially see lots of snow, the further west the better your chances. I’m still in shock that Paducah NWS issued a Blizzard Watch!!!!

  20. Mike S says:

    18z NAM shows dramatic east shift. WSWatches likely to cover more real estate. And also the Blizzard Watch to the west? Wow. Even Louisville could be back in the game for 2-4″ after all. Watch may or may not include Louisville but will be close. Just across the river, they’re going to get hammered. Possibly crippling in west IN near Vincennes and Evansville.
    The models are still tweaking though. Give it time.

  21. Dee says:

    I really hope Louisville gets snow!

  22. Lincoln says:

    All I can say is NAM!

  23. Thomas says:

    Can anyone tell me what Murray, KY is looking like with this storm realistically please?

  24. Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

    OK I am sucked back into the hype. First I want to wish everybody who comes to this site to comment or read a very merry xmas. Second a special merry xmas to Chris who puts up with our nonsense.
    I think the 0z models will be the pre story line if the east adjustment continues. If this storm dumps the snow powder on the majority of the commonwealth, we can name it the Belated Miracle Xmas Storm of 2012.

    • Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

      I apologies if I am sounding like Donald Trump but if we can build up a decent snowpack by the end of this weekend, this winter could be HUGH!

  25. Phelps says:

    Fifty degrees, cloudy, and lots of rain here in Phelps. It’s beginning to look a lot like March.

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