NAM Snowfall Map

Merry Christmas Eve. The clear trend among the models over the past 24 hours is for a farther south and east tracking storm. That allows the heaviest snow band to set up farther east into Kentucky. You’ve been seeing my tweets about the NAM and I wanted to show you what the model snowfall map looks like through Thursday.

Here ya go…

NAM Snow

The same run of the model also produces a period of sleet and freezing rain for areas along and north of interstate 64 before switching to snow. I am NOT saying the above map is right and I really don’t think it is because I feel there is more adjusting to go on the models.

My point of posting this is to illustrate a clear trend… east.

I will have a full update coming later tonight as we shift into Alert mode. Merry Christmas and take care.

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43 Responses to NAM Snowfall Map

  1. Andy Rose says:

    Thanks Mr Bailey

  2. Logan says:

    Needs to shift a little more east!

  3. Emerson Biggins says:


  4. Joey Wilson says:

    My ONLY complaint…I wish it was 24 hours later! 🙂

  5. BubbaG says:

    Be careful folks. CB only posted to illustrate the path trend. Going by any one model and not a weighted average of models and their trends is usually a mistake.

    • BubbaG says:

      BTW, if the models start agreeing and the trend keeps heading east, that suggests that momentum and energy is drawing that way. It could theoretically end up smacking Kentucky more than expected. Not a big chance, but still a chance.

  6. Robbie says:

    If that snowfall map is right, and I know it’s not, I could fly from Bowman Field, where there would be about a half inch of snow, to Clark County airport 10 miles north, where there would be about 6 inches of snow.

  7. Thomas says:

    How come in Murray everyone here locally says an inch or two when all the model runs today have shown at least four to six and yet we aren’t even under an advisory?

  8. Kyguy2016 says:

    That shows Owensboro with 10-12″, Henderson with 16″+. I’m liking this trend. 😀

  9. Coffeady says:

    Thanks, Chris. And Merry Christmas to you and all my friends here on the blog. I’m hoping east and a bit more south, but not too much!

  10. Mike S says:

    NWS Louisville needs to have a conference call in my opinion, but it might be a little late tonight.

  11. Drew says:

    00z gfs looks like it is going south from the 500mb pattern….

  12. JJTeach says:

    Poor Louisville…they just get skipped on that map.

    What a weird looking snowfall map!

    C’mon GFS and Euro, trend EAST!!!

  13. Todd says:

    That is a strange map, a dome between Frankfort and Louisville, then 3to 5 inches in lex? Doubt it is right anyway, TWC has St. Louis getting 10 inches and that map shows 0 for them!

  14. snow princess says:

    I’m in “Gunchester” with Rolo, how much shifting do we need to see to pick up a decent show, no ankle biters??

  15. Upslope says:

    Trending south and east

  16. Robbie says:

    The new GFS does go farther east and farther south, but in a herky jerky way. The low heads to Bowling Green or so and then moves due east along the state line with TN. The low in eastern KY is basically around the meeting point of KY, TN, and VA. This position should be much, much better for the Ohio river counties and spots a bit farther east, but we’ll see.

  17. jimbo says:

    the way the models are all going east by this time tomorrow cent/and east tern ky will be getting all the snow.

  18. trent says:

    wonder wha nws offices are thinking…the maps are moving out of some of watch areas especially if trends continue

  19. bjenks says:

    Dry SLOT for Louisville. I like the earlier maps better….Anyhow Merry Christmas to all. We will see what happens with this.

    • Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

      Let the dry slot party begin. I thought the 0z runs might settle this,onward weather soldiers we will march towards the 12z runs.

  20. Rickie says:

    Hope all that want snow gets it! Myself I’m good with a inch. We had nearly a foot at halloween here in Jenkins (Letcher Co.) with three and ahalf days without electricity. Love those big snows but love staying warm better. 🙂 … Merry Christmas to everybody! Hope your day is awesomely blessed..

  21. Linda in McCreary says:

    Merry Christmas to all my fellow bloggers!!!! I will take whatever comes down…as long as it is white!!! 🙂

  22. BubbaG says:

    Wouldn’t it be ironic if this is 1998 dusting part 2? Thinks about it: In 98, the system was supposed to smack SE Kentucky and parts east, but it shifted heavy to the west. Back then, there were was not all this constant data proliferation with models, blogs etc, so people were caught more off guard.

    In this case, it COULD shift heavy to the east as the energy keeps drawing that way. Likely? No, but is theoretically possible…. Theoretically speaking.

    • Lincoln says:

      Happened before, and even more recent in the last 10 years. CKY has lost storms to west ky..Maybe West ky loses this storm to CKY as you said doubtful, but it is something that can’t be ruled out.

  23. Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

    At this point the trend is in our favorite. But do not forget about the dome. Such irony.

  24. Da Grinch says:

    aint no snow finna hit da ground in cky.imma make sho yall dont get nuttin but rain.

  25. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks for updating, Chris. Awaiting to see what is going to happen now, as the models are still shifting, even this close to the event. Looking forward to your next post, and to the next models.
    All I know is, when we start out as rain, we usually get the shaft on snow. Guess we will see. ‘Night all, and Merry Christmas!

  26. sabrina says:

    I live in Taylor Mill (Covington) and they are calling for rain?? No snow at all. Should I give this map any validity at all?

  27. dawnp007 says:

    C’mon baby….move just a little more eastward and a touch southward; then STAY put!!!! Merry Christmas!

  28. pattyversailles says:

    I’m thinking a dusting to an inch (maybe) in our area. Maybe the weekend will be different!
    I hope everyone is enjoying their Christmas night!

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