I’m Dreaming Of A White Day After Christmas

Merry Christmas everyone. The big day is going to be a busy one in the wonderful world of weather as a major winter storm begins to take shape to our southwest. This storm heads our way later tonight and Wednesday and will bring a nasty mix of snow, rain, ice and wind. For that reason… the blog is now in Winter Storm Alert mode.

This is a difficult storm to breakdown, but here goes nothing:

- The models have been trending south and east with the track of the lead low into the Tennessee Valley and southern Ohio Valley. This track is actually starting to look more and more like what the models were initially showing. I suspect further adjustments on the track will be forthcoming on the models today.

- The farther south and east this low tracks before handing off to a mid atlantic low, the better the chance of snow across our part of the world.

- As of now… rain will develop late tonight across much of central and eastern Kentucky with mainly snow in the west. Some freezing rain and sleet is very possible along and north of Interstate 64 Wednesday morning.

- Heavy snow and wind will be likely across western sections of the state and blizzard conditions may develop. This has the potential to be a shutdown storm for some areas there. Far northern Kentucky near Covington may also get in on some of this. Louisville may be thisclose to that action.

- As the lead low works east, cold air will funnel in from the west, rain and mix will change to all snow in central and eastern Kentucky from late morning through the afternoon. There could be a period of moderate to heavy snow somewhere across north central Kentucky.

- Here’s the First Call For Snowfall…

Special- Those numbers and lines are NOT set in stone and I will fine tune them later today as we see what other tricks the models have in store. We will really need to watch the area from Louisville to Covington. The waffle zone may run right through this area and it wouldn’t take much to get the snow max zone to set up here. On the flip side… it wouldn’t take much to get the lower numbers here either.

- I want to remind you that a lot can still change and that will greatly impact the numbers I have out. Will the eastward trend continue and keep pushing the higher numbers east? Time will tell.

- Winds will be a major player with gusts of 30 to 40mph over the next few days.

I will have updates through the day and will be back on WKYT-TV this evening with the very latest. Let’s leave you on an upbeat Christmas note…

Merry Christmas and take care.


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160 Responses to I’m Dreaming Of A White Day After Christmas

  1. Israel says:

    If only the snow would come 24 hours earlier, then we would’ve had a real white christmas. But I’m still happy anyway

  2. SnowDogLburg says:

    Merry Christmas to all that frequent this wonderful forum….and to Chris…thanks again for your hard work and dedication to this weather site!!!!! Definately, no “coal” in your stocking!!!!!

  3. Go Cards says:

    I saw a NWS AFD from the Dallas area. It mentioned the storm was already 80 miles South from where the models had it at this time.

  4. Todd says:

    Merry Christmas to all, Thanks Chris for your dedication and hard work year around on the blog and on WKYT you make following weather a complete joy, hopefully everyone in KY will see a good amount of snow if not this storm, then maybe the next!

  5. james says:

    Chris, Merry Christmas to you and your family. Thanks for the time you put forth to this blog. Merry Christmas to all the others who visit and post here. Hope we can get a White day after Christmas.

  6. dawnp007 says:

    Thanks, Chris. Would love to see it move more eastward and a tad bit south!!!!

  7. Derek says:

    What time does the next EURO come out? Time is running out for any hope of a good event here in E KY. Just wondering to, what is the most reliable runs. Seems like I heard before the 06z and 18z runs are garbage. The latest forecast discussion from JKL also said a WWA would prolly be issued tomorrow for most of the coverage area.

  8. Muddy says:

    Merry Christmas Everyone!

  9. chris g in clay county says:

    nws louisville and jackson both already putting forcast out for rain and snow both for weekend storm both friday night and saturday. probley not much snow out of that one either. :(
    seems to be same story , different year with the storm coming in tomorrow night into weds. low is to far west for most of us to see a big snow, a little snow on backside , cold temps come in with little mosture to work with.
    why this always seems to come into play i have no idea. if its a clipper system, you can expect 1-3 inches , but anything from the south, its always to far west. plain jane rain

    thanks chris for all you do for the community. i would like to wish you and everyone here on the blog a merry christmas and happy new year.

  10. squad546 says:

    That map, it’s a bit confusing and I think someone at Eastern State drew it for CB! I’m not predicting much snow for Central Ky, but I have a feeling we’re going to have a mess in general. A slushy couple inches. On a sidenote, I cant listen to Bing Crosby without thinking how he beat his children, wonderful!

  11. Cosmic Wrangler says:

    I love snow!!!

  12. Endleswavz says:

    Merry Christmas my fellow KYWC bloggers! Let the party begin! Oh yeah… Bring on the snow! A simple flake will do.

  13. pattyversailles says:

    Merry Christmas to all!! Especially you Chris. Remember to thank the one above for all our wonderful blessings this holiday season!!

  14. weather blog troll says:

    Merry Christmas to all and to all a little SNOW.

  15. Jenn says:

    Merry christmas all!!

  16. BubbaG says:

    Given the amount of misses west, east, north and even south, seems big snows for central Kentucky are a thing of the past. Too many misses over the years to not accept for what it is. Well, for me at least and hence my cynicism. Nothing so far to bust the perception or trend.

    For whatever reason, central Kentucky has become a no-zone for these systems. Heck, we have not even gotten a big clipper in years. Wasn’t the last one when TG was still blogging with CB? Sure, we have got a four inch snow, but that is not in any stretch a big snow.

    Of course, 14 years is but a blink in the big scheme of climate history, but still seems uncanny how since 98 they miss the area- one way or another. It will be 15 starting in January. Zoinks.

  17. rolo says:

    very happy for WESTERN KY they havnt had a big snow in awhile,

    as for us in CENTRAL and EASTERN well what we got couple days ago will be what u seeat best after a switch over, it be a quick one as it be moving quick by time it switches.

    Question now BAILEY goes back to a THREAT MODE when NONE of the veiewing area is in for anything at all, OWENSBOURO and PAD are hardly in the blog viewing area.

    • BubbaG says:

      They are actually a St Louis market ;)

      From a commercial standpoint this may be kind of true, but not from a fellow kin standpoint. They be Kentucky :)

    • Danny says:

      Yeah but our friends in Louisville are only one county away from being in the Winter Storm Watch. Louisville is so close to being in a heavy snow zone. Louisville is going to get heavy rain,heavy freezing, heavy snow & sleet. The mets In Louisville got there hands full it could be all snow, all rain, or freezing rain, sleet and snow. In Jefferson County I believe you could drive around that county and see 4 different kinds of weather falling within 10 miles in either direction. I also think you can go 10-15 miles north or west of downtown Louisville and see 6+ inches of snow. Travel along the Ohio River county’s will be nasty tomorrow. I guess the rest of us will end up with a cold rain transitioning to snow on the backside.

    • Faye says:

      Hey, I’m in Paducah visiting family and I’m checking the blog about a dozen times a day! This is where I’m getting my information about the storm, so keep talking about W. KY, Chris!

    • Joey Wilson says:

      Hello Rolo. I live in Owensboro and AM FULLY in the “blog viewing area” whatever that is. We are in the Evansville IN TV market. Last time I looked, Owensboro and Paducah are in Kentucky. Thankfully, Chris understands that.

  18. cjmajorgal says:

    Merry Christmas, Mr. Bailey!! Thanks for all of your hard work and dedication! I appreciate it!

  19. jeanette says:

    Merry Christmas to all of you! I seem to be blocked by something called ‘sucuri’ when I try to post from home…but I am traveling to Middlesboro, and the hills of east TN until the New Year and I can post now?
    Anyway….hoping we see some kind of snow in the hills in the next week. Etown doesn’t seem to get snow anymore lately :(

    Here’s to hoping!! :D

  20. Neil says:

    Merry Christmas, everyone! As far as this storm goes, it appears to be a carbon copy of the 2004 storm. Speaking of carbon, it’s another lump of coal in the weather sock for CKY snow lovers! Gotta agree that big storms for us are a thing of the past, this is the closest we’ll ever come to getting one again…

  21. jeanette says:

    Merry Christmas to you Chris and may your family have peace and joy on this blessed of all days.

  22. MarkLex says:

    Merry Christmas everyone :D

  23. Winter Warlock says:

    Merry Christmas! Taking a wait and see approach but the narrow ban of heavy snow is what it is and thats just the nature of this storm. If we get in on some of the action in Central KY that is great. If not, that is just the way it goes! For those posters who are dissappointed in the storm, please stop being critical of Chris……as he does not control the weather!

    • MarkLex says:

      I agree – but unfortunately for a lot in the case of weather for some reason it makes them feel better to kill the messenger if things don’t go exactly the way they want it. It is frustrating and unfair, especially for a storm like this to potentially go just to our west (AGAIN -2004 DEC?)to bum all the snow lovers out at Christmas time

  24. bjenks says:

    Thanks CB for the update and Merry Christmas….I like that you have most of Jefferson County in the 3-6 inch zone, but I am taking a wait and see approach on if we get any at all. I remember few years back when I waited six hours for the rain to change to snow and it did, after 1 inch of rain we received flurries at the end. I see this one doing the same thing.
    Would rather be in Central KY where the forecast is dead set on rain and a little back end snow……For us in the Lou area it really does stink to see WSW literally 15 – 20 miles from my doorstep and the possibility of all rain here. I will think POSITIVE and SNOW as the East / SouthEast shift could place us in the sweet spot. Thanks again..

    • Danny says:

      Bjenks if your in Louisville your going to get all kinds of wintery weather this is no way going to be a all rain event for you not even close. You gotta understand the NWS and the local mets in Louisville are going conservative Louisville is such on the fence there is no real confidence what type of precip will dominate and might not know until the actual storm arrives. If the storm track shifts another 25 miles south it changes alot for Louisville. My opinion I think Louisville will see lots of sleet that might be the most dominate precip type rain will mix in from time to time. But I’m thinking sleet is going to be the most dominate precip type where your at. And again that is of now if the storm tracks shifts as you know it’s a whole new ball game.

      • bjenks says:

        Danny…Saw your post above and kinda thought the same thing about driving around Jefferson County and seeing four different precip types. My Wife and daughter leave for Atlanta at 6:00 am Wed. for a BBall tournament. I was going to go but I have 13 contracts for snow removal and I decided not to go do to this storm. Hopefully it plays out the way you mentioned and or this storm shifts a few more miles to the south/east. Only time will tell…Think Snow..

        • Danny says:

          Bjenks the mets in the Ville got there hands full with this storm. The models are not coperating the latest 12z nam doesnt make much sense to me in my eyes. The track of the 12z nam is a decent track for the Ohio River county’s on both sides of the river for snow and yet it wants to punch warmer air in. I’m not buying that because Louisville is on the west side of the low which tells me that the colder air from the north is working in with this storm. It’s like the nam is contradicting itself I think that latest run of the nam is just junk to a point.

  25. WendyT says:

    Merry Christmas to all!

  26. Ready4Snow says:

    Just a 30-50 mile trek farther east will make a big difference for some if you’re on the rain /snow line..So hopefully today it work’s out for some…

  27. james says:

    Lucky snow lovers in Paducah. Tonight Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 9pm. Low around 30. Blustery, with a northeast wind 17 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible.
    Wednesday Snow with areas of blowing snow before noon, then a slight chance of snow between noon and 5pm. High near 32. Breezy, with a north northwest wind 16 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

  28. craig says:

    Looks like the latest NAM has fed more warm air into southern indiana…not sure why but I sure thought with the way the track of the low shifted this would be ideal for Louisville. But unless dynamic cooling makes an appearance or the models are overestimating the amount of warm air, looks like we miss out again.

    • Mark says:

      Bingo! This track is perfect for Louisville but the WAA still finds a way. 12z NAM is still south and east with the low but is warmer in Louisville and southern Indiana then it’s last run.

    • Danny says:

      The models are really really struggling with this storm it’s looking like this will be a now casting event for area’s along and north of the Ohio River. I believe as strong as this storm is dynamic cooling will make an appearance.

  29. Pierce says:

    This storm, wherever it tracks, will likely be strengthening rapidly. In other words, dynamic cooling seems to be possible in some areas. Also, the precip shield is forming further south in Texas than forecast, and is actually kinda busting the OKC snowfall forecast. This isn’t over until it’s over. This storm still has the possibility to track further east, although, it isn’t very likely.

  30. Rick in Columbus says:

    National Weather Service up here is saying that the actual 3 hourly temps are about 2 degrees higher than the models. This will play into the snow totals up here, but it also must have a big effect on Kentucky.

  31. Thomas says:

    Well last night WPSD called for an inch or two here and CB was on the money once again. Wake up to a blizzard warning for Calloway County and I live on the far west side of the county. Right now they are calling for 10-14 inches tonight thru tomorrow morning. Thanks Chris for the hard work and merry Christmas all.

  32. BubbaG says:

    Meh… I can not help but see all the western Kentucky demographic good cheer, since they might get big snow. Kind of like Clark Griswold in Christmas Vacation not getting the Christmas spirit until he got his big bonus. What about us folks that have gone for 1.5 decades without big snow, bonuses, eggnog, super-greased sleighs, squirrels, or cousin Eddie? I bet you all feel humble now!!

    :) ;) Ho! Ho! Hoooo! :)

  33. Jenn says:

    when is the system expected tomget into kentucky, i live about 25miles north west of lexington. due to travel im hoping for no ice

  34. Lincoln says:

    My cousin from Oklahoma City said that they’ve got mostly ice so far, it just started snowing. He thinks they’ll be closer to the 4″ estimation as oppose to the 8″( forecasters were*calling for 4-8.. But mostly closer to 8 he said).

  35. Emc says:

    Our bigger snows usually come when they predict rain for Louisville. Could this be one of those where they predict more rain but we get hammered with snow. Over last twenty years our biggest snows were probably predicted incorrectly about 70 percent of time. If they overplay it never pans out but when they underplay it wham bam!

  36. Mike S says:

    Latest NAM 850mb (about 5,000 feet up) forecast for Louisville suggests a sleet/lt snow mix initially, cools the air column by at least 1 degree. Rain all night, temps slowly rise to 35-38 degrees. By mid-morning, temps fall to 34 as rain mixes with snow. By noon, all snow. Still looks like 1-2″. Major roads look fine during the day with this scenario.

    Also, keeps the heaviest snow line north of Cincy (possibly more sleet and freezing rain?), through Seymour IN, north of Evansville IN, and west of Paducah (again possibly more sleet/fr rain?).

    According to the latest NAM run 12z, appears ‘warmer’ to me. Seems contradictory based on present track.

    Therefore, expect more adjustments to the forecast. Even the models are confused.

  37. Chris Mercer says:

    Someone is going to “bust” the forecast one way or the other. Note how there are blizzard warnings (something I’ve never seen) in one county and no kind of warnings/watches at all in the county next to it. (McClean Vs. Ohio for example). You really mean to tell me there will be a blizzard in McClean County and nothing worthy of an advisory in Ohio County?

    • Joey Wilson says:

      There will be a very sharp cut off between heavy snow and virtually nothing. That’s why you see a Bliz Warning in one county and nothing next to it.

      Warmer air seems to be getting more involved and could hold down snow accumulations in many places. This is one difficult storm to nail down specifics.

      • Dara says:

        Actually the temperatures are tunning 4-7 BELOW what they had forecasted so how is warmer air a factor when its actually colder?

    • BubbaG says:

      Usually means mets in general still do not know what to call. Still seems the more SE you go, the more warm air ruins the party, regardless.

      Still, if ice is becoming more a factor, warm air can ruin THAT party :) Let us see if we have the same thing as last year where mets a lot of times kept underestimating the warm air.

      Though it IS Christmas, going by the Chrisometer, the last post and real update was ten hours ago. High correlation of step back, the longer the posting gap. Is this a Santa gap, or a weather gap? I have no clue.

  38. Aaron C says:

    We get what we get. Can’t forecast that one wrong. Was hoping for more snow here but it seems like if the storm stays too far south it digs up more warm air. Not really contradictory if you think about it since all the warm air is lodged down there for the time being, has to go somewhere.

    I just hope this winter isn’t a repeat of last year. We haven’t even gotten close to last winter’s snow of 3 inches, and that’s pretty low totals.

    • pattyversailles says:

      Merry Christmas Aaron! Guess who!

      • Aaron C. says:

        Hey, how have you been doing this Christmas? Hope you have made it a good one. Wanted to see my sis, but got work early tomorrow. Going to call this afternoon.

        Are you hoping for snow? :)
        Hope things are going well for ya.
        Good to see you again!

  39. Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

    I wish everybody a merry xmas. I think this season is going to be another what ifs.

    • Chris Mercer says:

      Bubba–It is in the Mid 40′s and raining in Dallas. Not sure where this came from, but it isn’t accurate. They might get a dusting tonight, but no major snow storm for sure. And all the rain will probably keep anything from accumulating.

  40. Caroline in Central West Virginia says:

    MERRY CHRISTMAS!

    To Chris, your family and the weather team. Even though I’m over here in WV, you’re still my weather hero, and this page is my first call every morning as most of the weather you guys get makes it our way eventually!

    Thank You and Have a Good One!

  41. Todd says:

    I know this pattern warm air always sucks up into central ky and kills our snow dreams, maybe not, will can still dream and watch the news video of the big snows that avoid ky every year , central ky that is!

    • Teach says:

      Just saw Chris’ latest tweet. It appears by that ONE map central Kentucky actually does better than Western Ky. But overall looks like this storm is going to be north of most of the state. Appears to be a now cast event. Chris is one of the best at this and I would be happy with 3″ for our first measurable snow of the season.

  42. Bill L says:

    Umbrella or shovel….been planning shovel all week!

  43. Joey Wilson says:

    Forecasts continue to change. Big snows for western KY not certain at this point depending on exact storm track and how much warm air gets pulled in by the storm.

  44. Mike S says:

    blizzard warning for Indy
    NWS louisville – what are you doing next?

  45. Todd says:

    the snow dome might be expanding look at any snowfall map for the next 2 days or so, the snow is in every state around us, we are by Far the state with the least, extreme west ky might get a good one!

  46. Emc says:

    I am starting to see few put snow totals forecast out. Only 12 hours away and seems to me still a lot of anxious mets over this storm

    • Pierce says:

      Most mets are. No one is very confident. LMK doesn’t seem very confident at all, and that is actually kinda smart. This low could track 50 miles east and we get hammered. That’s just the way this storm will likely work.

  47. Russ says:

    This thing is turning more and more into a southern ILL/western KY and into south central Indiana major winter storm. Unfortunately, the cutoff looks to be in far southern Indiana. I guess we can all hope for a 1998 “dusting” surprise, but the last time that happened, well it was going on 14 years ago.

    • Kat says:

      When you say southern indiana what counties are you referring to? I live in the southern indiana and to me those counties are the ones that border the river with KY

      • Russ says:

        I’d feel pretty confident if I lived anywhere near Columbus IN or Bloomington. Slightly less confident around Seymour and downright frustrated if I lived along the Ohio River around New Albany up towards Madison.
        Being that we live in south central KY, I’ve come to realize that Winter will NEVER be like the old school winters from the 70′s thru 90′s I don’t buy into the hype.

  48. trent says:

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2213.html

    the heavy snow area is well south of what models/nws are showing..oklahoma city huge bust on snow totals

  49. Emc says:

    Actually Russ I think it was 2004 was last big surprise. Louisville had around ten inches and that was not predicted. Plus majority of that storm had lots of sleet mixed in or it would have been huge for Louisville. Just across the river some areas had over two feet. 94 and 98 and 2004 storms were all predicted incorrectly

    • Russ says:

      You guys can hope all you want, I call it setting yourselves up for disappointment. Yea, temps are colder today then forecasted, but wait until that warm air gets wrapped up in this storm. I just don’t see Louisville getting much-maybe a couple of inches of wet snow or sleet. And noway on God’s green Earth does downstate KY pick up 2″ of snow. Coating at best.

      • Mike S says:

        So far, the only thing I can come up with is that the low is stronger than originally forecast. That may be why much warmer air is being drawn up than initially thought. New NAM due out by 3:30pm

      • Emc says:

        Understand because over last 15 to 20 years hype storms equal about 30 and results equal 3 but of those 3 they were all predicted wrong. That is my point. If they were saying big snow for Louisville than I would totally agree it probably would not happen. Since this is being minimized maybe a better shot at something happening. Maybe wishful thinking but still fun

      • Todd says:

        Upslope wraparound will give east ky more than most of central as far as snow goes, guarantee that one, seen it a lot!

  50. trent says:

    got too many chiefs in here not enough indians

  51. rolo says:

    what we would need to see is a DEEPING STORM stronger than mosdelsa were showing, that would give EVAP COOLING pulling COLDERAIR than forcast into the system.

    that could move snow line few more counties over I guess.

    but what u all HOPING, PRAYING need understand is as low moves north it going pull WARMER AIR into the system, so unless GOD puts breaks on storm and says go DUE EAST then NE young LOW PRESSURE it aint haPPENING. it can be 15 degrees colder right now than forcasted but as storm moves closer ever one on east, and NE side going get warmer air.

    to ones that can understand my CRYPTED typing ur wel;come, to the rest take 2 TYLENOL and 2 shots of JIM and it all clear up.

  52. rolo says:

    well as far as forcast gfoes, LOCAL mets dont need to give totals because it aint going do nothing.lolll

    lolllllllllllllllll

  53. Russ says:

    The AFD from Louisville tells me all I need to know…basically south central Indiana gets the heavier snow. Advisory type accumulations for the Indiana counties bordering the Ohio River. And nothing but good ole rain and some wrap around snow showers that won’t amount to squat for north central KY. Are you guys ready for Spring yet?

    • Todd says:

      The last line of the special weather statement says it all to me, stay tuned the exact path is still not set in stone, any shift south will mean more snow for central KY? Of course anyshift further north and a dusting won’t happen!

    • Danny says:

      What Russ failed to mention is that in the NWS out of Louisville discussion is the Euro has come in colder and if it pans out further watches and warnings will be issued. In my opinion NWS in Louisville is still not confident and respectfully so. The models have been anything but helpful. If the evening models start coming colder I say forget them there not going to get it right so I say just now cast the storm.

  54. james says:

    According to Chris’s latest tweet, go Euro! :)

  55. Lincoln says:

    I love everyone saying nothing is going to happen, well even if it snowed an inch, we do live in Kentucky and everyone will flip out. It happens every time. And you need to remember people from EKY are NOT the only people who view this blog. Chris has an extremely large following, and this storm could affect some of them.

    • Russ says:

      I agree that CB has a big following, I’m just saying that this is more of an impact storm for Indiana/Ilinois/Ohio. Folks south of the river are holding on to fools gold because of one Euro run.

    • Joey Wilson says:

      LOL…Rolo earlier today actually typed on here that Paducah and Owensboro are “out of the blog’s viewing area.” Gosh, I wish I’d known that sooner so I would have stopped reading this blog every day. Duh!

  56. Lincoln says:

    And to whoever tried to claim BubbaG had the wrong information about snowing in Dallas, IT IS snowing in Dallas. And points north, I am from that part of Texas and have family down there.

  57. Juno99 says:

    Why hasn’t there been an update posted yet? Lol

  58. Joey Wilson says:

    Hopefully an update from Chris coming soon. 100+ comments to his morning post.

  59. trent says:

    hey russ. now also a nam run…temps bust today..storm is way further south

  60. trent says:

    nashville tn nowunder a advisory wow

  61. Mark in Marion says:

    34 degrees and dropping at my home here in Marion County. Will the temperature actually rise later this evening for the overnight low of 36 degrees?

  62. kyguy2016 says:

    So, the NAM is starting the SE trend again? This close to the onset of precipitation? I think the models know less of what will happen than we do at this point. I guess this is going to be a “wait and see” system, like most across our state. Here’s to 12+” in Daviess County!! :-D

    • WXman says:

      No, the NAM, GFS, and Euro are ALL taking the low into the Somerset, KY area and then out through eastern KY. LEX goes to 4 degrees C at the surface all day tomorrow. Impossible to accumulate snow rapidly, or at all, at 4 degrees C unless it’s snowing like you’ve never seen it snow before.

  63. Mike S says:

    Dry slot and ice/sleet may impact totals across far west KY and sw IN. Ice/sleet may limit totals as well in Cincy. NWS offices are very robust with their snow totals in west KY and Indiana, though. Over a foot in a few places.

    I still think heavy snow line gets close to the River for Louisville.

    Here’s hoping for another favorable shift….

  64. Adam says:

    There just seems to be something fishy about this storm, I’ve been following weather since I was almost 10 and I can say I have not seen a storm like this before with the extreme westward shift, then the eastward shift but with warmer temps on the models … now its 5-7 degrees cooler outside then the models said it would be …. someone is going to get a surprise … Hopefully its Central KY.

  65. MarkLex says:

    I think what’s is the MOST painful is that when the snow is always just so freaking CLOSE! If this were a midwest storm in the central part of the country, it wouldn’t be as hard to watch because those are not “our” storms. This is OUR storm, and we still miss it :(

    Hopefully, we we be surprised. It’s happened before – several times. Unfortunately LONG LONG ago!

    • BubbaG says:

      They still get through with frozen stuff, but mainly ice ;) Yep, we got several big snows in each decade from these type of systems in the 70′s, 80′s and 90′s, but zip in the 00′s and not a good trend in the 10′s so far either.

  66. Adam says:

    dewpoints in the upper 20′s and low 30′s

  67. Drew says:

    Anybody that checks the spc meso website watch the pressure falls this evening. Will have an impact on where the storm goes. SLP currently in central louisiana.

  68. WXman says:

    Russ is right on the money. Everybody is trying to wish a snowstorm into being for LEX and it ain’t happnin’. The Euro is garbage..a couple days ago it had this storm coming out of Oklahoma. It has no clue. GFS has, as usual, been showing 39 degree rain in Lexington on Wednesday for a LONG time now, and that is exactly what’s going to happen. If you want a blizzard, drive to Indiana tonight and get a hotel room.

    • BubbaG says:

      Always take a weighted average of the models. It works far more than not. Cherry picking a model because it favors snow is merely encouraging Lucy for more kick placing ;)

    • Earl says:

      Nobody asked for your input. No one said nothing bout Lexington. What’s your input on the ol gfs thermal bust today

      • MJ says:

        ALL the models busted on temperatures today across Kentucky…even the Euro.

      • Russ says:

        It’s colder today. So what’s your point? Once the low pressure strengthens and moves into southern KY it will bring warmer air into the mix. Just because temps busted today does not translate into a colder storm. And, second, wishing won’t bring heavy snow into Kentucky. This is, and always has been an Indiana winter storm. But, don’t worry, we’ll get the usual change over to snow that might yield an inch or two in north central KY. And, we’ll have the usual array of models promising the next storm will be colder…LOL, whatever. Just don’t buy the hype. You guys will be better for it.

    • Emc says:

      I thought Russ was referring more to Louisville. I understand quite the longshot for lex but what about Louisville? It appears Louisville could easily get into nice accumulations but also just as easy see nothing. They are truly on the fence. Do you agree?

      • Russ says:

        I still think Jefferson County is a longshot for >4.” You want that kind of snow? Take a drive on I-65 North and hang out in Columbus or Bloomington for a couple of days. I think the NWS has the appropriate advisories/warnings out. WWA type of snow (1-3″) for the southern tier of counties in Indiana (Clark,Floyd,Jefferson). And just not much once u cross into KY. I grew up in the L’ville area and seen this type of setup numerous times. We were so close to the big snow, but usually ended up shutout while areas up north would pick up several inches.

  69. Todd says:

    Chris is working today on wkyt

  70. Connor Smith says:

    The eye of Euclid is headed right for central KY! “No snow for you…….one year!”

  71. Drummermandan says:

    Dry swath tracking this way…. Snow Dome is being raised!

  72. TONEY says:

    i can not believe some of the comments i am reading on here today….i mean don’t get me wrong, i am a snow lover and i would love to see a good ole fashion snow but we all have to remember and think about things and put things into prespective for a moment…….a lot of people are hoping for blizzard conditions or hoping that the heavy snow line shifts 1 way or the other depending on where you live at but i for 1 can tell you that i have been stranded in a blizzard before and it is not any fun and especially here at christmas time with wed., the day after christmas being a big travel day this storm could actually shut a few cities such as indianapolis down for a day or so or even worse and that is strand thousands at airports across the land, so yes i would love to see a good snow but just take a moment to think at what a blizzard is……i do believe it is heavy snow sustained for 3 or more hours along with 35mph winds with visibility less than a qtr. of a mile creating white out conditions…..this type of scenario has catastrophy written all over it given the time of year it is and it being a big travel day across the country and also it being the biggest shopping day of the year…..thousands could be without power for days if this storm does what i think it may do to several major cities in its path..

    my prediction on the storm is to bring the moderate snow fall…3 to 6 inches all the way from central ky. east to huntington, wva and then from central ky to western ky….heavy snow if not blizzard conditions with at least a foot of wind driven snow……this is in the time frame of late tonight through thursday morning….areas to the west will see the storm wind down late wed. afternoon while areas to the east will see the snow start as rain by dawn wed. and change to snow by afternoon and last through dawn thursday……..i am no expert by any means but i have been paying attention to model runs over the past 2 to 3 days and that is my best take on the storm….imo…….also lets not down chris to much for not posting today as much, after all he does have family to and he deserves to celebrate christmas as much as anyone else does…i am sure he will update every one in plenty of time to let every one prepare for the storm…..thanks for reading.

    • Rick in Columbus says:

      3-6 inches in that area you described? I see absolutely no indication of that. 1-2 inches is more likely, and that may even be a stretch.

      • TONEY says:

        there will be a lot of wrap around moisture on wed. night and that tells me at least 3 inches and some lollipops of 4, 5 and 6 inches…..u r saying 1 to 2 inches…….well if the 2 inches verifies then that means i am only off by 1 inch because just because i said 3 to 6 inches doesn’t mean it will be on the upper end of the total maybe it will be on the lower end of the total and you r right i have seen no indication of that at all either but tell me someone that knows precisely that does know what this storm is going to do….as i said that is just my opinion!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  73. Andy Rose says:

    Well it was nice while it lasted ;)

  74. Connor Smith says:

    Gall darn it! That Toney post used up all the memory on my Commodore 64……….shucks.

  75. rolo says:

    for a NON EVENT 144 post is amazing, if we ever do get that MIRACLE meaning a actual REAL WINTER STORM this blog will blow up.

  76. Snow says:

    Any one see the new models yet……all I can say is ……WOW…….

  77. rolo says:

    uhhh CHRIS BAILEY working on WKYT that why no update, watch news now see his forcast he on.

    • BubbaG says:

      Well, he REEAAALLLYYY onws the winter storm threat for the state now, since two and a half days and no change from it. Any downgrade now would be breaking the Bushido honor code.

      Man, I think I will use one of my Koto gift certificates and eat some hibachi style cookin’ tomorrow. Not a real Japanese cooking style, but a nice American twist to Japanese food :)

      Hey, if the weather doesn’t pan out, we can talk food! ;)

  78. Jason says:

    This is an incredible storm. Tornadoes on the ground everywhere down south.. On Christmas Day? Really?

  79. Amy, Marietta OH says:

    I think I remember toney commenting on Chris’ blog when he worked at WSAZ. I always looked forward to the fun we had waiting and wishing for snow. Well toney….what’s it look like for SE Ohio? Didn’t you always talk about the quiet ridge top? Always loved that…aww I miss Chris too.

    • TONEY says:

      amy, i did do a lot of commenting on his blog at wsaz but i commented from the town of wayne, wva…….i know who you r talking about but i can’t remember his name……this person had some of the most polite words any one could have on a blog. thanks for asking about me. god bless and merry christmas!!!

  80. MarkLex says:

    Speaking of the temps today being a bust, I too have seen that happen but the warmer air still ends up winning.

    If someone actually drives to Indiana to get a hotel to see a blizzard, they are crazy!

    • BubbaG says:

      Perhaps “sad” would be more fitting ;)

      If it snows a lot, fun in the snow = Cool! If it does not, no having to drive in it or dig the driveway out = Cool!

      Win Win :)

  81. Aaron C. says:

    *turns on the “flood” switch*
    *runs away*

    mwahahaahah…

  82. Todd says:

    Temp holding at 35 in Frankfort, doubtful it gets any colder tonight, probably will rise to about 40 by morning, I will admit it is very rare that Paducah gets hammered and Frankfort area gets nothing, 2004 we had about 2 inches of sleet and maybe a 1/2 inch of snow on top of that!

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