Winter Storm Update

Good Tuesday evening and Merry Christmas. I told you there would be some long pauses between updates and today featured a lengthy one. When traveling AND working on Christmas… it gets a little tough to update things. But, we are back in the saddle and ready to go.

I don’t really have any changes to my thought process on how things play out. Western Kentucky is facing an all out blizzard that threatens to shut down roads for a time late tonight into Wednesday morning. The area from Louisville to Covington is the one to REALLY keep an eye on. That part of the state is going to end up being super close to getting in on some of the wild stuff.

- Rain moves northward this evening. Temps across the northern half of the state will be cold enough for a mix to develop. Sleet, rain and snow will be likely later tonight from Interstate 64 and north. I expect some slick spots to develop.

- Most areas (outside of western Ky )switch over the a cold rain Wednesday morning. The wild card will be that Covington to Louisville corridor.

- The snow line will work rapidly eastward during the afternoon. It will be snowing across the entire state by early Wednesday evening and there could be a secondary swath of moderate snow developing in central Ky.

- Snow showers and squalls will then take over Wednesday night and Thursday morning for central and eastern Kentucky. Roads should become slick in these areas.

- Winds will gust to near 40mph at times later Tonight through early Thursday.

Here’s a look at my latest call on snowfall…

Snowfall

Again… that area along the Ohio River has me nervous.

Here’s a look at the latest warnings and advisories…

Winter W A

I would expect additional advisories to be issued across the central and east as the picture becomes more clear into Wednesday.

Since I’m working tonight, another update may not come until after midnight. Of course, you can tune in to see my latest thoughts on WKYT-TV at 11.

Merry Christmas and take care.


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112 Responses to Winter Storm Update

  1. Marsha says:

    Hey guys what kind of storm track do we need to get all of ky in a snowstorm I have not see that in for ever…..

    • Aaron C. says:

      A low pressure center that is a “bowling-ball”, going from Oklahoma, through Arkansas, southern Tennessee, then cutting up into North Carolina, then western Virginia and eastern West Virginia, then into Pennsylvania (with the right amount of cold air in all columns of the atmosphere,)

      OR

      A gigantic low popping up in the gulf of Mexico, barreling due north out of Florida, into Georgia, then cutting into South Carolina, then cutting into the same areas as before (the high pressure needs to be close enough to feed cold air in from the west and northwest…)

      At least….that’s just the “general” idea…..

  2. Neil says:

    One thing is perfectly clear from this and every storm for the last 15 winters, CKY can no longer get in on the action when it comes to big snows. The best we can expect is the way outside shot at 6″ tops from any given storm, and then only if all the pieces fall into place. I hope I am proven wrong in a big way, and soon, but a decade-and-a-half of misses is hard to argue against…

    • BubbaG says:

      Clippers need only apply. Been saying that for four years now and people thought i was nuts. I may be nuts but southern fed systems are a no-zone for big snow in central Kentucky. Take it to the bank until an actual event pans out to bust the trend. Not an outlook or forecast, but an actual result. Result = validation.

  3. Ready4Snow says:

    I’ve got snow to the left of me,tornado’s below me..Stuck in the middle again…

  4. Cosmic Wrangler says:

    I love snow!!!

  5. KG4KBU says:

    also please folks go over to weathernation tv to check out all the tornado info. including mobile alabama which got hit http://www.facebook.com/weathernation

    • BubbaG says:

      There has been several times I recall where the mets in the region were wrong and CB right. No sure if this is one of those times or not, but CB’s forecast appears reasonable. I see this as either doing better than expected here or a bust. No in between. Seems if the warm air takes over, ouch. That said, IF the system pans out in W KY, some folks could be without power and driving would not be worthy.

  6. sabrina says:

    I live in Covington and they are telling us we are getting 1-2 inches and all rain. We are in an advisory for slick conditions. Do you think this is a failure on our meteorologists?

  7. BubbaG says:

    Chris his held his ground! Gumption! The call seems reasonable and wild not much has a changed in almost three days. My guess is this will either be some level of over-performer, or Lucy will be very busy. I see no in between :)

  8. Damaged Goods says:

    John Belski (retired met from WAVE 3 in Louisville who still keeps a weather blog through the Wave 3 website) says the Blizzard Warning is as close as 22 miles north of Downtown Louisville. The slightest shift and Louisville’s in on this bad dad!!!!

  9. Aaron C. says:

    I’ve tried to get folks to do a study on the amount of snowfall here in central KY (nicholasville, richmond, danville, stanford, liberty, campbellsville, perryville, columbia, somerset, science hill, lancaster, wilmore, burgin, harrodsburg, salvisa, etc) and nobody has taken me up on it yet. The consensus is that nobody gives two hoots. Central KY is not on the snow map in terms of the weather; and if 16 foot of snow fell here at one time, nobody would notice. Maybe THAT’s why we don’t get any snow. :)

    • Aaron C. says:

      But then again, 16 foot of snow is more than enough to completely bury every house in sight. Just a couple inches too much. Haha!

    • BubbaG says:

      I think somebody did a few years ago and the “dome” was very apparent and obvious. Anecdotal though, since we all know these systems have hit literally every direction tangential to us in the past- soon to be 15 years.

      • BubbaG says:

        Again, they HAVE hit us too, but in the form of ice and a little snow on top of it. Or just plain old ice.

        • Aaron C. says:

          Good ole’ Brian Collins used to say “when you see that big H over Michigan, that’s usually a good sign for snow” (paraphrased–especially in southern-fed systems)

          We’re too far east here for where the counterclockwise flow and the clockwise flow of the two meet up to create the atmospheric conditions necessary for the thumping.

  10. MarkLex says:

    The problem with the southern fed systems seems to be either

    A) What is happening now!

    OR

    B) Too MUCH cold air in place causing the storm to stay too far south.

    Not sure how to explain how it managed to snow so much here back in the day

  11. Jason says:

    Already broke the record for tornadoes on Christmas Day (unofficially)..

  12. Bernard P. Fife says:

    Hope all has had a Merry Christmas! After a hectic day a long winters nap is order…probably will wake up to all rain in Monticello area!

  13. Mike M says:

    It can snow east, west, north and south but central ky continues no mans land for decent snow. I don’t doubt we will get an inch or 2 here in Woodford County but that’s been the norm. We wrote the book on ankle biters.

  14. Mike M says:

    Moderation test

  15. Go Cards says:

    Just got back from Washington County in Indiana. Hard to leave there and come back to Louisville since they have a blizzard warning.

  16. bjenks says:

    Emerson B…Where are you and your power of positivity…..We really need it here. Been a snow lover all my life and have followed the weather, winter especially for the past eight years. I have never seen a storm where rain on this side of the bridge and snow on the other. Just may happen tomorrow, but I feel it will be mostly rain with a couple inches of snow on the back side. Wait and see and nowcasting will replace the models real quickly.

    Also, BubbaG…I have never seen a clipper dump more than 4 inches of snow on any part of Kentucky. I do agree that we generally get our more consistant forcasts from the clippers. Just not enough moisture. It has been 35 years since Kentucky has had a BLIZZARD WARNING!!!! There are going to be some crazy snow totals to talk about when it is said and done. WSW across the bridge walk back across and cold rain….THAT IS CRAZY!!!! MERRY CHRISTMAS TO ALL AND TO ALL A GOOD NIGHT!!!!!

    • BubbaG says:

      We have had three over-performing clippers and two were when TG was still blogging with CB. One of them nailed us with wrap around and we ended up with about 7 inches of dry snow that drifted and seemed higher than that. Bloggers dogged CB since it looked like a bust and then TG posted to defend CB stating the wrap around is when the main snow would hit. They were correct.

      I have the picture for all thee events, since those were the “big” snows to my kids when they were little. My older son was 3 in 1998 and does not remember the 2.5′ foot drifts in the driveway from the great dusting.

      If I recall correctly, we had a 5″, 6″ and 7″ event.

      The other started as a coating of ice and lasted

      • BubbaG says:

        The other higher one started as a coating of ice and lasted for over a week due to the the ice pack and continued wrap around snows over three days.

    • Emerson Biggins says:

      I’m here and I’m positive. Been away from blog but from everything I’ve quickly scanned over it seems the entire storm has been more south from where it was forcasted. Wasn’t OKC supposed to be the center point of snow today, it was south, snow seems to be falling further south than forcasted as well. Not saying we’re going to have a blizzard here but I have faith that we will get more than anticipated. The temps today are colder than forcasted, yes I know the warm southern flow will win out for awhile but I’m staying positive that things will be in our favor. The trend over the years hasn’t been in our favor and I, like everyone else on here end up disappointed, but not this year, it’s going to happen. STAY POSITIVE, THINK SNOW, HAVE FAITH AND BELIEVE, IT CAN’T MISS US FOREVER!

      • I love snow says:

        I hope you’re right! I’m a little disappointed that we’re not going to get the 9-12 inches predicted earlier.

  17. JJTeach says:

    That secondary area of snow in Central Kentucky that Chris speaks of REALLY has me interested!!

    • Rick in Columbus says:

      Yeah. That inch of snow is interesting.

      • JJTeach says:

        Hey dude, I live in central Kentucky. A dusting at best is all we’ve had so far this year. So yeah, an inch or two is interesting.

        • Rachel says:

          We had 5″ on March 5th in Lexington… it lasted about 4 hours and was 60 degrees the next day… but hey that’s something more than a dusting ;)

      • Aaron C. says:

        *insert random grumpy joke about I-75 in Ohio*

        mmm…..thoroughly satisfying and interesting….yes….

        I’ll be sitting here brooding and stroking my imaginary beard for a while.

        *slams his spell staff into the floor*

      • BubbaG says:

        It could be a bust or a some form of over-performer. Seems no neutral ground for this event. Too crazy. Either the cold air will take over or the warm air will. NO QUARTER!! ;) :)

        • Aaron C. says:

          No, three inches for this storm would be an overachiever here. Would be satisfied with that.

          We don’t need a foot yet anyway. It’s still too early and the cold air hasn’t established itself yet. Unlike the frigid, tundra-like arctic dungeons of Ohio…..:P

  18. Ryan K says:

    Though I’m not particularly optimistic at this point for Louisville anyway, the increasing possibility of a dry slot given the intensity of the storms down South really sucks for snow lovers. LMK now has up to 1″ as their lville forecast.

  19. Todd says:

    The rpm model the weather channel shows for snow just painted a nice patch of snow north of I64 by 1pm tomorrow, that has trended south for sure from earlier maps they have shown?

  20. WKU_Meteorology says:

    CB…i CAN confirm, mixed precipitation falling as of 7:20 CST here in Bowling Green, KY. Just saw his twitter update, and checked the HRRR…the LOW is showing a more southern/eastern track. Essential for the type of snow many of us want around here!!!

    • Ryan says:

      I am also in Bowing Green. I have 34.8 degrees at my house and it sounds like it’s pouring rain out there, but I’m not able to get a good enough look right now to see if it’s mixing or not.

  21. WKU_Meteorology says:

    Upper air trough is starting to lift and negative surface pressure tendency axis now indicates that the low will start to propagating to the NE.

  22. Chris Mercer says:

    Ok–someone was critical of my report on Dallas conditions earlier today. The map Bubba G posted had Dallas in the 1-3 inch range. I said “they may get a dusting, but nothing significant.” They received 0.4 inches at DFW which is on the Northern end of the metroplex. Yes, that is a measurable snow, but I think I was right in the “nothing to see here.” Having lived in the metroplex for several years, I can tell you the conditions vary among the cities/counties. On the home front, it appears all of KY may get hit by the dreaded “moisture robbing” by the severe storms down south.

  23. Todd says:

    Large dry slot will have to fill in or their will be much less snow than forecast in west ky!

    • Chris Mercer says:

      I see that dry slot. It looks like all our favorites may be at work here. Warm air advection, dry slotting, and moisture robbing. Nice trio, huh?

    • Go Cards says:

      Yeah snow totals may need to come down some. Dry slot plus the system looks to be approaching faster than thought. That means makes a quicker exit. I’m probably wrong.

  24. Mark in Marion says:

    32 degrees and a wintry mix in northern marion county.

  25. ben c says:

    I knew we would get the shaft in Lexington once again. Been following this blog all week only to have my hopes dashed once again.

  26. Ryan says:

    Look on the bright side, we all could have been born in North Korea.

  27. Nate in Nicholasville says:

    A little girl with black hair is out in my front yard holding a football for me to kick..,

    • Aaron C. says:

      Tell her to keep it. ;)

      • Aaron C. says:

        You know what’s funny? I actually found a football today, two of them in fact….I held one of them for a while and sat it down, but the other one I found….well, I threw it up in the air, ran towards it, and then kicked the CRAP out of it. lol

  28. chrisb says:

    you know if chris is tweeted about the next storm fri night, this one is OVER. Anyone I65 east and south of ohio river might as well go to bed.

  29. bjenks says:

    Wow! Chris just said possible 4 inch snow for KY Fri/Sat Well at least one good thing for that storm is there should be enough snow pack to our north to keep the low surpressed futher south and east.

    I like my doughnuts with hot coffee….NOT COLD RAIN..I know that was randon, but I had to throw it out there.

  30. Jeff Hamlin says:

    Sometimes I wonder what would happen to Bubba if we ever got the “trend buster”.

    • Aaron C. says:

      It wouldn’t be a trend Buster, it would be a “Bubba Buster.” :) And that’s the name we should give it.

      • BubbaG says:

        Probably not going to happen. Too many south fed systems have failed and the “best” they could do is ice. Next month will be the big 15 for no big snow for central Kentucky.

        Trends are powerful until they finally get busted.

        BTW, real COLD rain in Richmond area. I wonder if much of the mositure will hang around when the cold air gets here? ;)

  31. Damaged Goods says:

    Local mets here in Louisville now saying anywhere from an inch or less to 1 – 3 inches, depending on which channel you’re watching. Fingers crossed that the next round of models show something better, but I’m not holding my breath. Can anyone tell me when the next models start coming out?

    Also, one station is already saying that the Friday into Saturday storm won’t amount to much more than an inch here in the Louisville Metro area.

  32. Todd says:

    Their is no way I will ever trust a computer model in the winter in ky, not ever, this winter is just going to be a nasty tease of almost, or it looked good a few days ago!

  33. Joe in Clark CO says:

    Just of side having a smoke and there is a couple of flakes coming down. Just a couple. Still hoping.

  34. Bill L says:

    I am still preparing the sled……even in Louisville, I am getting the sled ready. :)

  35. Russ says:

    No offense, but I don’t see how in the world central/eastern Ky will even be close to advisory type stuff. I know CB emphasizes impact, but there will be very little, if any, snow in east KY. Maybe a glancing blow on the higher elevations, but lower elevations not much, if any. This was covered in Jackson’s AFD this afternoon. Maybe central KY warrants an WWA, for impact alone. As I cannot see areas around Lex getting anything more than a dusting.

  36. Todd says:

    A lttle rain/snow mix in Frankfort, temp 33.9, warm air aloft not here yet!

    • MarkLex says:

      That’s a major dry slot……….What surprises me the most is the fact that it’s no absolutely pouring rain here right now. The last time we had the 2004 Dec storm it rained buckets and the temp was like 35 degrees the entire time. The radar was full of a stream of moisture all over the area. This is different looking than the 2004 Dec storm.

  37. MarkLex says:

    Oklahoma City was under a winter storm warning. They only received half an inch of snow. I imagine there are lots disappointed there too. Busted forecast for them, but our forecast remains on track……Pfffttt

  38. Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

    The 0z runs not that great for Louisville. The GFS slightly better than the NAM. Another storm that did not pan out. I think it is all over except for the dead enders that will try to convince them of it happening. The last few days very frustrating for all of us who like snow. I hate this winter already!

  39. Lincoln says:

    Who wants to meet at the park tomorrow and have a mudball fight? We can bring our sleds, and god muleding!!

  40. Todd says:

    Chris still thinks a couple of inches possible in the wraparound tomorrow for central ky in the afternoon so I will stick with that and hope for the best, nothing we can do now but wait and see what Wendsday brings?

  41. Drew says:

    Don’t give up on the storm quite yet….dry slot should start filling in and slp is currently in ne mississippi…pressure falls would indicate a more likely nne track but pressure falls in alabama show this storm could go more east than forecast…

  42. MarkLex says:

    I was looking at the radar and wondering that myself. It just doesn’t look that great………I think all that intense rain in the deep south may be sucking the energy down that way?

  43. Todd says:

    32.7 in Frankfort, very close to freezing rain at the moment!

  44. Dee says:

    Thunder snow in Paducah?!?!?! Craziness…Lauren Jones from Wave 3 reporting it.

  45. Fred says:

    ….why is Chris nervous? Is there a chance it could shift and we get more snow out of the storm? And where does he say we get 4 more inches this weekend?

  46. Juno99 says:

    My guess is some of the snowfall totals on the models are also starting to reflect what will possibly occur this weekend with the next storm??

  47. Amandanlouisville says:

    32 degrees in prp in Louisville . the radar on wave3 website shows some change over in the whole western part of Jefferson county ! this is gonna be so look close folks ! I’m still praying for a big snow here

  48. Emc says:

    Does it appear the snow mix is just one county away from louisville

  49. BubbaG says:

    Jeepers. It can almost not get any colder without snowing (33 right now, so correct). Then again, our luck is it would be ice.

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