Tracking Two More Storms

Good Thursday to one and all. The winter storm that took a swipe at the bluegrass state continues to move away. With that one in our rearview mirror, we still have two more storms to track over the next several days. Each of these will likely produce snow across Kentucky. The typical questions (where and how much) will be ironed out soon enough.

If you’re only as good as your last forecast… I’m rather mediocre right now. Being among the first in the region to pinpoint a major winter storm from a week away is a big plus. But, the secondary storm across the Mid Atlantic states beat me up a bit by zapping the moisture and energy from the Ohio Valley. Kentucky isn’t alone in dealing with the” under” on snowfall. Much of the buckeye state got a lot less than was being forecast up there.

Regardless of this last storm, the pattern remains very active.

We have some leftover flurries out there today with highs in the low and middle 30s. It’s late Friday into Saturday that we watch a southern tracking storm throw moisture back into our region. You can see this well on the GFS Ensembles…

GFS

The GFS has more of a disjointed look to it…GFS 2

I just got a look at the European Model and it shows much of a “storm” look to it as it takes a low across the south then bombs it out up the east coast. It is interesting to note, all the models are coming around to a stronger system with each run. As of now… I expect rain and snow to develop on Friday and quickly go to a period of snow Friday night and Saturday morning. Snow showers and flurries would then become widespread during the afternoon and evening as cold air pours in on a northwesterly wind. Again… the typical issues of, where and how much, remain to be answered.

The next storm to watch is for New Year’s Day. The models set up a cold high to the north and a low to our southwest throwing moisture northward into the state. The GFS…

GFS 3

The Canadian…Canadian

We will take ‘em one at a time and we have to figure out the weekend one before getting too amped up about the one next week.

I will update things later today. Make it a fantastic day and take care.


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71 Responses to Tracking Two More Storms

  1. Jerry says:

    Chris, don’t beat yourself up man. I live in Charleston, WVa and still follow you for the weather. I would take your forecast 10/10 times compared to those here. Although it isn’t a West Virginia forecast, I can still get an idea from the maps and projections. So, thank you for all you do Chris.

  2. Go Cards says:

    Hey Chris I’ll make a prediction for Saturday. Cards 74 Cats 67.

  3. Dawnp007 says:

    Whether the weather be fine,
    Whether the weather be not,
    Whether the weather be cold,
    Whether the weather be hot,
    We’ll weather the weather,
    Whatever the weather
    Whether we like it or not..

    Btw, I liked the tie you were yesterday evening:)

  4. MarkLex says:

    Chris – Yes, please don’t beat yourself up!! Seriously. I think a lot of the comments are just PURE frustration and bad moods from this last disaster of a storm. Count me in as the frustrated but not at you, just at the mysterious dome in general.

    Regarding the transferring of Lows from the Oh Valley to the east coast and it sucking all of the energy away from us (typical), why wasn’t that factored in? I know this seems to happen a lot with southern storms (especially) if there are intense thunderstorms to the south but that doesn’t always happen……Like the superstorm 93, there were huge rains and storms in Florida, but that didn’t stop the moisture from going north all the way up the eastern half of the country in.

  5. Cosmokramer says:

    Snow dome…global warming…whatever….ya can predict weather, but ya can’t change it.

  6. CoalminerD says:

    Got a new weather station for Christmas. Looking forward to the two next storms we are gonna argue, criticize, uplift, track, predict, and cuss about. The past system obviously was no surprise. At no point was Eastern or Central KY in line for anything major. Hopefully we see something different in the near future. Even I am becoming very weary of this winter season.

  7. Coffeady says:

    Chris, you still rock. And I don’t see where you missed too badly. You said western We are still three days away from the main impact of this storm and a lot can still change. Given the fact that this is a busy travel period, I’m putting out a super early breakdown map. Here’s a first blush look at how this thing may play out…

    would feel the hardest impact here, and they did. As for us in southern Ky, I can tell you that usually when we start out as rain, we get nothing in the way of snow. And you weren’t predicting much for us anyway. Looking forward to your thoughts on the weekend. Have a great day, everyone!

  8. WXman says:

    For this next system, GFS shows Lexington at 36 during the peak precip. Euro shows 38. Looks like a mixed bag again. Then both models keep the precip with the New Year’s storm south of KY. We need to get a storm soon before AO goes positive.

  9. Aaron C. says:

    Little to no accumulation with the last system——–the next system is currently forecasted to do the same (Fri. night and Saturday.) Again, back to back winters with little to no snow (5 inches or less all winter) are rare in these parts, based on historical records. *sigh*

    • Aaron C. says:

      That high to the north is not. in. Michigan. It is not going to help any until we can get a high pressure center up there that’s the right strength to keep cold air in without pushing the precip away and/or causing virga.

  10. JJTeach says:

    Don’t sweat it Chris!! Our time is coming for some snow…I can feel it ;)

    As for the game, I think I speak for Chris and MOST readers on this KENTUCKY weather blog when I say….GO CATS!!!

  11. Weatherdadof2 says:

    Chris, thanks for giving your all while trying to inform everyone of weather hazards and happenings. I wanted more snow, too, but we got our forecasted “coating” in London, which was nice to wake up to. The KWC blog remains to be a valid and informative source of scientific data, research, and reasoning for those of us who enjoy our meteorological hobby. Thanks again;)

  12. Cole in McCreary says:

    Thanks Chris, your the best to me.

  13. BubbaG says:

    It is what it is Chris. The data and model average looked reasonable for an event to hit Kentucky, but as all too many times since before a lot of our kids were even born, it found a way to avoid most of us. Maybe we will get a clipper system this winter :) since southern fed systems for most of us equals :(

  14. Andy Rose says:

    i wonder if we will get enough snow thats actually worth mentioning

  15. Rick in Columbus says:

    You are correct about forecasts being robbed. Just about all of Ohio received much less than forecast. In Columbus, we were locally forecast for 9-12 inches. We received 5-6. Areas to the North and Northwest were locally forecast for 12-18 inches. 10 is the highest amount on the ground that has been mentioned.

  16. prelude says:

    I will be generous will get a dusting/coating to as much as two inches come Friday night into the day Saturday.

  17. TONEY says:

    can someone please tell me if they r having trouble pulling up the website with all the models on them…….the link that chris has posted on this site is not working…..is the site down this morning?

    1 other thing…….i was hacked last night by my older brother who loves to get on these chat forums and cause trouble…….well any way he got use of my computer while i was in bed and i guess he gave some of you including chris a hard time about the weather last evening. what he did not know is that i subscribe to all the comments by e-mail and this morning when i checked my e-mail i noticed what happened….so if any one was offended last evening i am deeply sorry even though i did not do it and to top it all off i guess he sent chris an e-mail pretending to be me, so chris i don’t know what he said but if it was bad it was not from me…..needless to say i have took measures not to let this happen again and when he does wake up a little later this morning i am going to rack him…….thanks to all for understanding……and to chris, i have always said that u r second to none when it comes to forecasting the weather in this part of the world and if any one of the so called forecasters on here want to give it a try, well then, all i can say is go for it…..god bless!!!

  18. Go Cats says:

    Chris, I think you should start giving every winter storm that comes through Lexington your own name. I suggest you name all the storms after Lexmark since they always under perform.

  19. LD says:

    Look, despite best intentions I started buying into the idea of snow on Christmas day when it first started being mentioned…then Christmas night…then during the day after Christmas…then during the night of the day after Christmas. Aside from a light windshield coating, the outcome was exactly what WXman keep stating it would be (btw, good on you for not mentioning that when posting today), cold and rainy.

    As disappointing as that was, I’d still rather plan for something and not get it as opposed to getting something for which I hadn’t planned. Imagine CB going along with everyone else in minimizing the outcome of a storm system and then we get dumped on something fierce. I don’t want to see the apocalyptic outcome of a sudden and unexpected winter weather event married with the atrocious driving skills of those in Fayette county. Seriously, look at what happened with next to nothing on the ground, what was it recently, 86 accidents including a trained police officer in a solo accident (and that was forecasted!)? Keep swinging CB, I love yah for it!

    One last thing, if the GFS is so awesome, how come it didn’t predict this?
    http://www.wkyt.com/home/headlines/Rupp-Arena-ditches-Coke-for-Pepsi-184899371.html

    To borrow some imagery from BubbaG, drinking Pepsi is the same as when Lucy is getting dog germs from Snoopy.

  20. rolo says:

    dang Christmas is already pover, what happened??

    WXMAN spot on next 2 storms are mmehhhhhhh, and we are losing chances with each day. we going to go into a MILDER area as we get into mid FEB.

  21. bjenks says:

    Chirs Bailey….Thanks for the updates…You are the best in the state preparing us for what might be. From the first post to the last you held your ground on where you thought the snow was going to be. This storm was a N/W (from Ky) snow event from the start. All the models had the heaviest snow along and north or the river. Never did one model, worth looking at, have anymore than a inch or two for 90% of the state. I feel that the models are always more robust with the amout of precip that actually falls so you can always knock 10 to 20 percent from them off the bat. Sorry for all the haters and neg comments that seem to be directed at you and your predictions. KWC rocks and will be my first choice of weather information on a daily basis throughout the year…….THANK again for all you do.

  22. Reeneyinky says:

    No snow in Russell, either:(…however, we can’t shoot the messenger! Thanks, Chris…I still follow!

  23. Ryan says:

    I’m still wondering when we’re going to get a “Clipper System” to hit us? So far I haven’t seen one and that’s surprising. Every system is coming from the south?

  24. Danny says:

    NWS out of Louisville said that Friday night and Saturday morning needs to be monitor for a possible surprising snow fall. Heres my response to that, (and the farmer hauled another load away.)

  25. Jeanette says:

    Thanks Chris. You always come closer than anyone to what actually occurs….you and one of our locals. I appreciate you always giving me the heads up on all the possibilities to better make plans for my family, what actually happens is beside the point.
    Thanks for all you do for Kentuckians and beyond.

  26. Joey Wilson says:

    Chris, you and your website rock! I’m disappointed too when I don’t get snow in my backyard, but that’s the nature of winter weather predicting in the midwest. Forecast here in Owensboro was anywhere from 2-8″ and we ended up with barely the ground covered. On the plus side, we have some more chances and this is NOT looking like last winter when I don’t remember getting more than one chance at big snow. On the whole, that’s all we can hope for–CHANCES. We miss out more than we “win” because the juicy southern storms drag too much warm air into most of KY. Sometimes, everything in the atmosphere will line up just right and we’ll get a big snow. I’ve lived in Owensboro for 25 years and can remember at least five 8″+ snows. It can AND will happen again. Thanks again, Chris.

  27. Amandanlouisville says:

    Toney I’ve haven’t been able to pull the site up either .

  28. FrustratedWiththeComments says:

    As my name states… Frustrated with the comments.

    A lot of you want to knock Chris, but his forecast(s) is/are the best around, bar none. Chris is dedicated to keeping us loyal followers/readers safe and informed. So he missed one (slightly), he is still the best. He does his homework from weeks away, while other weathermen and women take one model at face value and report it on TV and blogs.

    Chris, I don’t know if you read every one of these comments, but don’t beat yourself up bud! You are the best and those of us that matter the most, who follow you loyally, love and respect everything you do. I read the blog ~10 times a day (comments and updates) and although I don’t comment often, I am very thankful for you and your dedication. Keep up the AMAZING work you do and let the trolls be trolls…

  29. bjenks says:

    Thanks Chris for the update…..As I stated earlier in Dec. Jan/Feb will be COLD and Hopefully snowy. This winter will be nothing like last winter where it was Warm and mostly dry except for a little rain. For those of you who think things are about to warm up I hope Santa brought you all parka’s, hats, and gloves. These next to systems will have a nice track for KY but no precip. for us to get hyped about. THINK SNOW!!! oh yeah and THINK POSITIVE for EB… Have a great day everyone.

  30. KP says:

    Chris, please don’t be upset with yourself. If weather forecasting was easy, we’d all be doing it.
    You devote so much time to this blog, plus working all those newscasts, and all during the holiday season. No way should you ever have a single negative thought!!!

    Here’s a question for all the folks who have lived here long enough to remember the “good ol’ days” when central Kentucky got lots of snow every winter.
    Do you think climate change has had an affect that has changed the weather patterns so that snow doesn’t come this way?
    I moved here from Texas and my part of the state was always green and lush, but now it is drought stricken year after year. It’s like the climate of Mexico has moved north a few hundred miles.

    • Joey Wilson says:

      I’m not sure anyone could provide facts/dates to when any part of KY got “lots of snow every winter”. Most who have lived here for many years remember a handful of deep snows and are disappointed when we don’t get one every winter. The atmosphere needs to be nearly “perfect” for KY to get big snows (juicy low to the south, cold air to the north) with them interacting just right. It doesn’t happen often.

      • Chris Mercer says:

        Just look at the Paducah and Louisville NWS sights concerning snowfall data. Jackson only goes back to 1981 so really isn’t helpful. You will see that there are many winters in both Western, Southern, and Central KY where there were less than 10 inches of snow for the entire winter. Not sure about eastern KY.

        • BubbaG says:

          Yes, but in the 70s, 80s, and 90s, those wimpy winters were sandwiched by at least three big snows in each decade. 8″ to sometimes more for one event.

          We get the wimpy winters, but the big snows are now a few inches, since the southern feds do not like much of Kentucky.

        • KP says:

          Okay, that makes me wonder why so many people on this blog remember very snowy winters? I have been under the impression that the complaining is because of how much things have changed.

  31. Jenn says:

    thanks chris for your hardwork. i have been a follower for about 4years now and will continue to be.

  32. Chris Mercer says:

    I still say hold out for some hope. If Lexington averages what is forecasted for the rest of the month by the NWS, the average temp will be 42.2, good enough for the tenth warmest December on record, slightly warmer than 2006 and cooler than 1984. Anyone remember February of 2007 or January of 1985? (Hint, they are both in the top 10 coldest for each month!).

  33. Chris Mercer says:

    On another note–a good way to look at if the climate is warming/cooling short term is to look at the Top 10 Warmest of each month in a station that has a long climate history (like Lexington) but which really isn’t subject to the “Urban heat Island effect” like SDF.

    Since 2000, Lexington has recorded:
    The 6th Warmest January
    The 8th Warmest February
    The Warmest and 7th Warmest Marches
    The 3rd, 5th, and 8th Warmest Aprils
    The 10th Warmest May
    The 7th Warmest June
    The 2nd, 9th, and 10th Warmest July’s
    The 2nd, 8th, and 10th warmest Augusts’
    The 8th Warmest October
    The 5th and 10th Warmest November’s
    And now the 10th Warmest December.

    On the cold side since 2000…
    The 9th Coldest February
    The 10th Coldest June
    The 2nd Coldest July
    The 5th Coldest August
    The 7th Coldest September
    The 2nd and 5th Coldest Decembers.

    The score is 19-7 on the warm side. So, we should not be surprised that we are in a “short term” warm cycle, right? Perhaps it will flip, perhaps not. I don’t know. Just interesting data to look at.

  34. Joey Wilson says:

    Latest models continue to show a light-moderate possibility event for much of Kentucky along the Ohio River Friday night/Saturday. Maybe a few inches of snow, which I know I would gladly take here in Owensboro. The event on New Year’s Eve maybe a bigger one. As always, take with a grain of salt but at least a few ducks are on the pond.

  35. WXman says:

    12Z runs still showing upper 30s in central KY preventing any accumulation of snow early this weekend.

  36. Joey Wilson says:

    Here is Henry Margasuty from Accuweather’s video about the Friday night-Sat event. Accuweather is very east coast biased but he’s saying a “few inches” for parts of KY.

    http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/meteomadness/another-snowstorm-this-weekend-1/3243979

  37. alena says:

    Chris you are the best. This is the only place I go to look at the weather and you are right on most of the time. We are just going to have accept that this is how Ky winters are. Keep up the good work.

  38. bjenks says:

    Thanks Chris!!!! Following the indicies and trends of snow fall overall in the US….Each of the past four strorms have placed snow pack to our Northwest..Each one inching closer to the Ohio River. It is only right for the next two lows to dump snow over the Ohio River counties Fri/Sat and New Years snow for Central and Southern Ky. Nice to see that Chris is saying positive signs in his post.

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