Thursday Evening Update

Good evening, gang. I continue to focus on two storms systems that will impact our weather over the next 5 days. The first will move in late Friday into Saturday. This storm is likely to put down a swath of accumulating snow across our region. Snow showers would then put down additional accumulations across central and eastern Ky on Saturday.

The HPC has put much of central and eastern Kentucky in a Slight Risk for 4″ of snow Friday night and Saturday and a moderate risk across the far north. Here’s a look…

HPC

Think of that in the way you think of a severe thunderstorm risk outlook from the SPC.

Most areas begin as rain from southwest to northeast Friday afternoon and evening. That will change to snow for many areas and here is a look at the area seeing the highest risk for accumulating snow…

Snowfall

A strong uplsope flow will then set in on Saturday and will combine with a disturbance working into the region to provide widespread snow showers and squalls into the evening. That should be enough to put down light accumulations that can add up to a few inches in some spots…

Snowfall 2

This will be a very close call on a “Threat” later tonight for some areas.

The next system continues to look like a snow producer New Years Eve and Day and that’s something we really need to keep an eye on over the weekend.

Have a great evening and take care.


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91 Responses to Thursday Evening Update

  1. Andy Rose says:

    Thanks Mr Bailey

  2. Angelica says:

    Thanks again Chris. I’d like to see more than a dusting on this one. Won’t hold my breath of course. I quite enjoyed the snows when I lived in Hazard 2007-2009, it felt like it was non stop but I do miss my New England winters. The system that gave us nothing gave my friends and family in Western MA a few inches yesterday. >:(

  3. Vinny says:

    Lexington is in BOTH highest risk zones…! Plus, the HPC 4″+ “chance”…
    I like it…

    GO STEELERS..!

    • james says:

      I was thinking the same thing :) I’m surprised though that Chris mentioned this being close to a threat for some areas. Didn’t think we were suppose to get that much. What is his threat criteria?

      • Andy Rose says:

        lately its been coating to 3 inches ;)

      • Lincoln says:

        I think he’s thinking threat because of the impact on travel. If it were to snow a few inches Friday night, it would accumulate..resulting in traffic problems. Same with Saturday, snow showers ad squalls can reduce visibility and make the roads slick. If we got a few inches both days, that is :)

  4. Upslope says:

    Decent upslope snowfall event shaping up for southeastern Kentucky Saturday. Love living in our beautiful mountains!!!

  5. Tonya Harris says:

    Here’s hoping for a nice little coating of snow…just not too much at once. We need lots of precipitation this winter after the drought last summer.

  6. weather blog troll says:

    Thank you Chris.
    Another system to track!
    Maybe this one will prime the pump.

  7. Seth says:

    I have this feeling that NWS forecasted highs are going to bust and WAA is going to surge into Lexington tomorrow and increase temps to a high of around 49. Then temperatures will hang around the mid to low 40s in Lexington as the heaviest precipitation moves through tomorrow night. Temperatures will stubbornly remain in the low to mid 40s throughout most of Saturday before slowly declining later in the day causing even the up slope snows to be a mix for Lexington.

    Sound about right? ;)

    We should set up something on intrade where you can bet on an event happening or not. At least that way you can make good money if you bet against a snow storm hitting central kentucky.

    • Rachel says:

      You have to love how the days before and after the snowfall the high only reaches the upper 20′s, low 30′s… but when the snows actually supposed to fall… 40. Every.single.time.

  8. Johnny says:

    I give up for any snow for southeastern KY. You read and here about BIG SNOW coming for the past month and if course nothing pans out.

  9. Todd says:

    Just heard a interesting fact, 65% of the lower 48 is covered in snow, Wow that says it all, 95% of ky has little to none, so what does it take 75 to 80% of the country in snow before KY joins in? That would leave only 20% of the country left, the gulf coast area? It might snow in Florida a few inches before KY joins in?

    • Kelly in Louisville says:

      For some reason I’m feeling lucky on this one. If this doesn’t pan out, then I officially give up and am ready for sunshine and leaves on trees.

      • Todd says:

        Yea, this one might be a little sneaker without a lot of fan fare, that is usually when we get our better snows thru Louisvile to Frankfort area!

  10. Bernard P. Fife says:

    Thanks for the update. There is a portion of about a dozen counties that doesn’t get covered in either of those maps, whaddya know I live in one of them, LOL. Gotta love it, cuz ya can’t change it!

  11. Emerson Biggins says:

    WXMAN KEEP DOING WHAT YOUR DOING, I FOR ONE APPRECIATE OTHERS INPUT. CHRIS IS A BUSY FELLOW AND CAN’T KEEP ME UPDATED AS SOME OF THE OTHER PEOPLE ON HERE. CHRIS HAS THE BEST BLOG FOR LOCAL WEATHER BUT HE’S A BUSY GUY (FAMILY, TV JOB, ETC.) SO EVERYONES INPUT IS APPRECIATED BY MYSELF, IM A WEATHER NERD/GEEK BUT DON’T HAVE TIME TO STUDY MODELS. THAT BEING SAID SOMETIMES (ESPECIALLY IN WINTER) THE BLOG TAKES A NEGATIVE ATTITUDE, SOUNDS LIKE SECOND GRADERS ARGUING OVER WHICH CRAYOLA CRAYONS THEY CAN USE. IT’S WEATHER, WINTER WEATHER HAPPENED IN OUR FAVOR IN THE 90′S, IT CAN’T MISS US FOREVER, ODDS ARE IN OUR FAVOR. REMEBER think snow, stay positive, and believe. Bjenks your my boy blue. keep it real and as always KEEP IT POSITIVE.

    • BubbaG says:

      Unless your keyboard is broke, please refrain from all caps. Seems loud and is garish to read.

    • WXman says:

      Chris Bailey is the man. Best TV met. in the entire market as we call it, or region if you prefer. ;)

      18Z GFS has a colder surface look to it. It also has a more intense look to the precip. shield. That’s the trend we want to see…let’s hope it continues.

  12. Leeannie says:

    Can’t help but notice the obvious dome over Kenova and Ashland. Must every storm loop up and around my area ?! Seriously!

  13. Lincoln says:

    I’m still concerned about warm air, but we will see. You never know in KY.

  14. Deedlegirl says:

    Anbody have an idea when this might be rolling into the Louisville area Friday?

  15. Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

    The snow is forecast to fall during the night time hours in Louisville. I could see a few inches falling before morning even with the borderline temps. I am in now cast mode for any snow that is predicted around here.

  16. rolo says:

    last time I checked WXMAN was spot on. a week ago said GFS a\nd euro was shoing to warm,

    and once again the one of any importance is NRE storm, but it as well to warm. 39 rain.

    • WXman says:

      rolo buddy if we are lucky the Derby horses will be muddin’ in 4″ of snow this year. Maybe Spring will be flip flopped from average and we’ll get surprise snow storms instead of tornado outbreaks. It’s happened before.

  17. Fleciagail says:

    Bring on the snow!!!!

  18. Amandanlouisville says:

    wow folks the 00z nam is awesome !!!!!

  19. Amandanlouisville says:

    with this new nam I would not be surprised for winter storm warnings to be issued

    • WXman says:

      Actually, the 00Z NAM has not changed a bit with it’s surface temps. Still takes all of KY above freezing. This would drastically hurt accumulations. One thing is does do is show a slightly stronger precip. shield. But if snow on the ground is what you want, NAM doesn’t have it. Neither does Euro. GFS is the only one trending colder so far. Let’s see what Euro does at 00Z.

      • Lincoln says:

        The warm air is what is concerning me as well, I think I have just fine tuned my head to believe it will not snow here this year one bit. Lol. I may not believe it snowed 3 inches if I was standing in it.

  20. Drew says:

    New 00z nam would be marginal winter storm warning from owensboro to cincinati. Also solid snows down to the western ky parkways

  21. Joey Wilson says:

    Basically, new NAM shows 3-5″ from near Henderson right up the Ohio River past Cincinnati. It’s a narrow band but would be a very nice hit for Henderson, Owensboro, Louisville to Cincy.

    • WXman says:

      You did notice that the surface freezing line is from southern OH into central IN and then central IL, right? With the 32 line that far north, how do you figure 3-5″ for Louisville? Especially when you add the urban heat island effect? The GFS trending colder is a good sign..hopefully 06Z NAM and 00Z Euro will follow.

      • Joey Wilson says:

        The NAM snow map is showing that snow along the Ohio River. I didn’t make it up.

      • Go Cards says:

        I believe I read someones blog that said this storm had potential to drop 4-6 inches. They said due to mixing issues drop an inch or two off that. 2-5 inches would be what would accumulate.

        • WXman says:

          I guess it’s possible to get a few inches with the temperature at 37 degrees.. but it’s going to have to snow HARD and for quite a while consistently to do it. The NAM does put a deformation zone right on top of Louisville so I guess we’ll see.

    • Tyler says:

      New nam shows 1″ best for Louisville!

  22. Todd says:

    I love to read all the folks witch doctor forecast on hear mostly for entertainment value, but this is the site of the winter weather expert Chris Bailey, He just tweeted recently that its showing signs of a much better outcome in Ncentral KY than the last flop, 24 to 30 hour away that is a good thing for Frankfort area!

  23. Kat says:

    I actually live in Corydon we seem to get more for some reason.

  24. MarkLex says:

    One thing about the last storm that I found interesting that no one has really brought up. From the past situations where we’ve been “close” to a winter storm, we would always get blasted with 34 degree heavy rain and wind, right? With this last storm, we didn’t even get very much RAIN! Much less snow. Even if it had been snow it wouldn’t have amounted that that much. I think the total precip for that storm was like .30!

    • Todd says:

      You are right, my rain gauge had about .35 in it so at very most 2 or 3 inches would have fell in Frankfort if it had all been snow!

    • THE ROOSTER says:

      I believe all the severe weather down south robbed the moisture up this way.

    • Muddy says:

      Rolo had actually talked about expecting a lot more rain than we had too.

    • Coffeelady says:

      Marklex, we got quite a bit of rain from the last system. And t stayed rain until themoisture was all but gone. I would wager tht we got about an inch or so at my house. Unfortunately, in southern KY, the snow love is just not there for us, it seems. I don’t think we could PAY it to snow more than flurries in our part of the state. Oh well, I love winter, and hope we get some consistantly cold temps, with or without snow. We need to get rid of some of the crawling critters that have beenso abundant this year. Talk about a weird weather year….we have certainly had it.

      • Mike says:

        We seemed to get a lot of rain in Madison County as well. THe key to not being disappointing is to keep expectations low. Mine couldn’t have been much lower, therefore, no disappointment..

    • KellyinLouisville says:

      .88 inches of rain at my house.

  25. William says:

    I’ll believe it when I see snow on the ground. Too much gloom and doom or winter wonderland, which ever you prefer, in the winter weather forecasting. NOAA weather radio channel in my truck has been the most accurate forcast I’ve heard in years. Not hateing on Chris, just not buying the fluff.

  26. THE ROOSTER says:

    You guys get commission on bread and milk for all this?

  27. chrisb says:

    Chris should go to THREAT tonight. Local Lville Mets saying 2-4″ now along river and isolated 5″ amounts. Should see WSW by early morning

    • BubbaG says:

      Along the river?? Those areas of Kentucky are technically part of Indiana and Ohio ;) For most of use folks, such a track would be a big mehhhh.

  28. Go Cards says:

    WWA is what NWS out of Louisville will go with. 4″ or more requires WSW and that doesn’t look likely at the moment. If you were to believe the 00Z GFS you wouldn’t end up with anything. I personally put more stock into what GFS and Euro say than any other model. NAM usually gets the track right,but precip is always a bit high. Just ask the people in Ohio if they saw 2 feet of snow the NAM was predicting with the last storm.

    • Seth says:

      Definitely agree. It seems that the gfs usually nails the southern systems. The nam seems to do better with clippers.

      Why is this usually the case?

  29. Russ says:

    Another dud coming. And, unless we can get something out of the storm forecasted for the New years, you can forget Winter for a few weeks. Blowtorch warmth by early to mid January.

  30. KeavyMan says:

    Once again, Southeastern Ky is in the DREADED DOME also. I wouldn’t be surprised if Palm Tree’s don’t start growing soon down in this area…lol. I have been here 2 years now and I have to say……………..the SNOW DOME of Kentucky is S/E & S/C Ky. Laurel, Whitley, Knox, McCreary, & Wayne seems to be more of a southern state than in Ky when it comes to cold and snow! Cold and Rain…Yes………………..Cold and Snow…No.

    Ready for the beaches of Florida and Alabama already.

  31. KeavyMan says:

    One good snow, about 9″ and it was gone next day. I guess someone left the top open long enough for 1 snow to sneak in.

  32. towarmforsnow says:

    Cold air is not going to be supportive during this event. And the system will move to fast. Sorry snow lovers! Haven’t you all learned by now?

  33. Emc says:

    If Vegas was setting over / under on this system for Louisville what would it be? I would go with 2.5 inches

    • Go Cards says:

      2″ because it will be right in the middle of the forecasted 1-3.

      • Go Cards says:

        Isn’t it pathetic that we are hoping and praying for 1-2 inches of snow? It is sad that it has come to this. Here is hoping to a generous snowfall for all to enjoy. I hope Bubba,Rolo,Bjenks,Andy Rose,Lincoln,and all the rest of us snow starved maniacs finally get that overachiever.

        • Todd says:

          The only over achiever I want this weekend is the CATS, GO BIG BLUE! ( by the way card fans you have lost 4 straight to us in BBall!)

          • Go Cards says:

            I really wouldn’t say that UK overachieved if they do beat us. Have equal or better talent at every position except pg. Siva needs to not turn the ball over 8 times and stay under control. Harrow will be your downfall if you lose.

            • Todd says:

              Cards got a good team, Pitino won’t loose this one! I’m just stoking the fire, If the Cards win it all this year, what a great 2 years for hoops in KY :)

  34. BubbaG says:

    Not sure. I want CB to get a decent snow under his belt for the winter, but not seeing how warm air does not spoil another event. Seems a similar (though not as severe) pattern as last year as far as warm air being a bully.

    We can not seem to get the proper mix where the moisture joins the cold air beyond about 10% of the moisture.

  35. SSGARMSTRONG says:

    Hope we get some in muhlenberg co

  36. Snow lover says:

    what about south central KY?. I’m in Adair co. I am desperate for a good snow.

  37. Bill L says:

    Putting down the umbrella, picking up the shovel here in Louisville! I am riding the snow-hope train all the way into the station!

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