Tracking Another Winter Storm Into Kentucky

Good Friday and welcome to another challenging weather day. A winter storm is bearing down on the commonwealth with snow and rain working in later today and tonight. The fence line will run right across the state and that means we will do a lot of nowcasting to find EXACTLY where that sets up.

Precipitation will develop from southwest to northeast later today into the evening hours. Much of this will begin as a period of rain, but will quickly switch over to snow for a lot of areas. I expect a round of moderate to heavy snow to set up and this could put down totals of 2″-4″ or more as it works through. What are the odds of that band setting up where you live? Here ya go…

Special

It’s going to be a super close call for areas along the Bluegrass Parkway into the Lexington metro then eastbound along the Interstate 64 corridor. For those who end up getting in on the heavy snow band… some totals may very well exceed 4″. This will be a Christmas card snow that is wet and clings to everything. I expect advisories to be issued very early today and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a winter storm warning come out.

For the areas that miss out on the heaviest snow… snow showers and squalls will increase by later Saturday into Saturday evening. I expect these to become fairly widespread and this should put down additional light accumulations. Southeastern Kentucky usually does the best with this type of setup.

For those of you making big plans for New Year’s Eve and Day… it’s likely to be very messy around here with a round of snow breaking out. I can’t even rule out a touch of ice for some. That will all be followed by an arctic blast by the end of next week and that may unleash another snow chance and the coldest air since the winter before last.

I will have updates throughout the day and will send out quick thoughts via twitter. Follow me: @kentuckyweather .

Have a great Friday and take care.


This entry was posted in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.

72 Responses to Tracking Another Winter Storm Into Kentucky

  1. Andy Rose says:

    Looks promising for us in knox whitley laurel area lol

  2. MikeM says:

    If they could make a fence on the Mexican border as impermeable as the fence on I-64 is to snow we could get rid of the border patrol.

  3. Lincoln says:

    Oh boy, Fayette County is riding a thin line. You know what that means.

  4. Braden Petry says:

    If i write Cris a comment on here will he awnser it , could someone write and tell me ? PLEASE
    THANKS

    • Lincoln says:

      Sometimes he will, but he is extremely busy. Best bet would be to email him. But there are many people on here who might be able to help you if you need help or will explain things to you if you don’t understand. Just comment and we will see what we can do!

      • Braden Petry says:

        Thank you very much ! Chris use to be with wsaz. Thats when I followed him, but now since he has moved i haven’t. So I might start reading hiss blogs on here. He use to have worked in wv.

  5. BubbaG says:

    Yep, north Madison is literally right on the moderate line again. The river probably influences that, else a lot of coincidences.

    We need to frame this statement from CB, since indicative of winter ad as ture as it was when I whined about it seven years ago:

    “The fence line will run right across the state”. Such an exquisitely accurate statement indeed.

  6. David Mather says:

    Looks like LaRue county might get another dusting.

  7. DestinyinLouisville says:

    The updated HPC outlook is looking good for Louisville!! THINK SNOW!! Thanks Chris!!

    http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day1_psnow_gt_04.gif

  8. bjenks says:

    Hopefully this plays out…..Ohio River counties tonight/Saturday….

    CENTRAL KENTUCKY…..THE DOME…..BUBBAG……ROLO….Sorry you have to wait until New Years to get your TREND BUSTER…Just a couple more days and the map above will be sliding further to the south. Have a great day everyone. THINK SNOW! oh and Positive for EB…

  9. bjenks says:

    Also, Chris thanks for the update…..

  10. Crystal In Pikeville says:

    Chris I thought Se Ky was in the slight Risk for 4 inches of snow what happened? Thank you.

  11. chrissomerset says:

    Well I didn’t have my hope’s up for snow this go round and new years will be no different, just rain rain rain for us!!

  12. KP says:

    For those who feel cheated for missing out on the Christmas snow, it hit my friend in Illinois and she’s absolutely miserable. She had to dig a path to her barn four times. The wind immediately covered it. Once the wind died down, she dug the path again and also began digging out her car. (drifts are up to the height of her car windows) There is no chance she can go anywhere, though, because her driveway is covered.

    She is hating her holiday. She would give anything to be in our snowless world.

    Those of us who have horses but don’t have the big bucks to own snow plows cannot sit back and enjoy the view. There is a lot of work to be done. I am so thankful the storm missed me. :)

    • Sarah says:

      KP, you make an interesting point that I hope at least some on this blog consider. Wishing for crazy amounts of snow creates horrible and sometimes life-threatening circumstances for many, many people. Sure it’s pretty and a fun novelty for some time, especially if you’re a kid. But for the rest of the world, life has to go on.

      We drove from KY to MD to see family on Wednesday and tried to pick the routes and times that would be less treacherous. It ended up being one of the worst traveling experiences we’d ever had, taking more that double the normal time. We saw no less than 40 wrecks on the way. It was stressful and scary. We are now having to delay our return home because of the new storm rolling through.

      I’m not saying to hate the snow and to not enjoy it when it comes– it IS beautiful. But please have some perspective when a big storm misses us…

  13. rolo says:

    tx BAILEY im good with tht forcast, 99 percent of the bog vewing area NO SNOW again, ohio river it is.

    I need few dry days if u can call a few up Bailey.

    • Vinny says:

      99%? And here we thought spelling was your worst subject… Lol

      GO STEELERS…!

      • BubbaG says:

        It is not his spelling. Certain keys are missing on Rolo’s keyboard :)

        This event should work out a little better for the NE (relatively speaking), but more cold rain for folks around Lexington on SE.

        Fence = Kentucky.

  14. Bernard P. Fife says:

    Here in Monticello our theme song is the same as Vince Mcmahon’s…No chance, that’s what ya got!!

  15. prelude says:

    Here is my only concern since most of us including the county’s that border the Ohio River didnt really drop past the 30-32 degree mark last night my main concern would be breaks in the cloud cover today if that happens I cant see why some spots would not hit the lower 40′s for highs. That would really delay the change over to snow and keep the snow amounts down for some. Being that said if the cloud cover is solid like it was yesterday temps will not budge that much if the temps are hovering around 37-39 when precip hits then the forecast should be in great shape for snow. Area’s along the Ohio River should if everything goes correctly get 3-6 inches of snow. Only thing that would keep that from happening is the temp’s for high’s today rise above what is forecast, so no breaks please in the cloud cover. I like the radar returns precip is really getting its act together north and south.

  16. deedlegirl says:

    Looks like Oldham County might get in on the action. Thanks Chris

  17. sue(flatwoods,ky) says:

    have a church program tonight here in the Flatwoods/Ashland area. do i need to make plans of delaying our program? I REALLY want snow here but dont want the elderly to get cought out in it trying to get home on slick roads!

  18. Mae says:

    can someone tell me how much snow they are giving for london and corbin area

  19. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks, Chris. One of these days you are going to be able to give southern KY a forecast we like! while I am not in the area where snow accumulation is probable, IF we can get snow squalls and snow showers, that will be nice to see, too. the last storm kind of teased us, but, not enought to barely gert the rooftops white for a bit. I would like to see one good snowfall (I am talking about a BIG one, BubbaG) and then I think I could live with the snow showers and ankle biters better…
    Chris, I know you are going to be busy tracking this thing and the next one, so thank you for all you do, and for this outlet for weather nerds.

    • BubbaG says:

      I do not like digging out of snow, since ice tends to settle on the bottom layer on my big hilly driveway. The biggie that bugs me is how uncanny we have been the fence every time unless an ice event since 1998. “Every time” is not an exaggeration. It used to settle down around Tennessee. Thing is, even they have gotten more big snows and not just the mountains.

      Never doubt the dome. Boo!

  20. Joey Wilson says:

    Models now pointing to arctic cold by end of next week. Winter is not going away anytime soon. If the cold can get a firm grip on the midwest, that could lead to better chances for snow for all of Kentucky.

    • BubbaG says:

      Yep, cold air moves in and moisture moves out ;) Only clippers pan out for us if cold air hangs around. Southern fed systems means the fence for us due to warm air.

      Moisture and cold air treat Kentucky like a big horsey fence.

      • Joey Wilson says:

        Yep, a very cold dome over KY will likely push southern storms to the south but that can also put the state on the northern edge of decent snows. It’s a better possibility than temps in the 50s.

  21. Cosmokramer says:

    In the Simpson’s Movie, Bart’s hometown of Springfield bordered KY. I believe KY was placed under a dome much like the one placed over Springfield. I’m just sayin’…..D’oh!!!!

  22. Joey Wilson says:

    Latest model trends are wetter but also a bit further north. Could be a repeat of the last storm. :(

    • Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

      Before it is all said and done the snow & rain line will likely be near Seymour In.(lol)

    • gtwister says:

      Doesn’t seem fair that places like Little Rock can get nearly a foot of snow (on Christmas day) but much of KY is snowless.

      http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lzk/?n=win1212.htm

      This was Little Rock’s first Christmas with measurable snow since 1926 (not including trace snows, not including snow cover Christmas day that fell before Christmas).

      • BubbaG says:

        A lot of them are not having fun. It was an icy heavy snow that still has triple digits without power.

        An 1800s Chrsitmas there for a lot of folks and a lot of businesses too. To make matters worse, hard to get around on the roads so no trips to stores or restaurants.

        I will take our misses ANYTIME over that :)

  23. Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

    I have no high expectations about the upcoming storm here in Louisville. A borderline teaser. Seen these snow forecast models too many times.

  24. Aaron Carrington says:

    Hmm… I see that the always inpenatrable ‘snow dome’ over the counties that surround I-75/I-64 split is still there. It will turn 15yrs old this winter.

  25. Mike S says:

    Louisville could get a nice surprise finally…the River shall not prevail this time.

    However, I know this scenario will unfold IF the snow is measurable.

    ‘The flakes have floated.
    The grounds are coated;
    But the snow amounts
    Are often bloated.’

  26. WXman says:

    12z NAM is cooler. Matches 06z GFS better. Along and north of I64 may be in good shape for snow now. This is getting slightly more interesting.. I really like Chris’ map..looks spot-on.

  27. Shelley says:

    so if we are BELOW the blue line but above the white one that means snow? sorry… I am easily confused today LOL

  28. Emc says:

    In the past have always talked that we want our storms to phase to get our best snows. From what I have read these storms will phase but yet very low snow totals are being forecast. Looking at radar it appears the storms contain plenty of moisture so why are such low totals being forecast. It seems to be a dynamic system. Why are totals on the low end? I live on southern side of Louisville.

  29. Danny says:

    3-6 for Louisville with a strong possibility of a winter storm warning is pretty decent bet

  30. joyce says:

    Is ot looking good for mercer county?

  31. Go Cards says:

    NWS out of Louisville said snow axis looks to be similar to the storm on the 26th. They are thinking heaviest snows to the N/NW of Louisville. I’m not saying it won’t snow anywhere else,but it will not be much based on latest models. Only hope is that temps bust and it is colder for snow instead of rain. NWS and Chris both mentioned temps have already busted. Supposed to be 40 in Louisville today. NWS thinks best we can reach is 34-35 now.

  32. Todd says:

    Looking at radar southwest of here their is plenty of moisture coming for south of the river also, this is all about the temps tonight for N. Central KY?

  33. sue(flatwoods,ky) says:

    is the Ashland area looking any better for snow?

  34. snow princess says:

    None of my comments go through moderation, wth?

  35. Todd says:

    The Louisville tv mets are calling for the heaviest snow in southern Indiana AGAIN, I hope they are wrong, Had Frankfort area 1 in. Or less, I think they may bust on that one, as Chris has stated forecast highs are suppose to be in the low 40′s now it’s looks like we will stay in 30′s, something has got to give!

  36. Emc says:

    What about phasing? That use to be majic word on this blog. Why is no one excited about it this time?

  37. Braden Petry says:

    I clicked on the page to notify me of evry comment. I get like 80 comments. Can someone tell me how to get it off ?
    thanks

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>