Good Monday and Happy New Year! We are wrapping up a wild year of weather on a very wintry note as we track our third winter storm in a week. This storm is going to bring another round of snow, mix and rain to the bluegrass state and figuring out where those lines set up will be the challenge of the day.
Today will be another day of nowcasting the system moving into the state as some areas will be walking the fine line between snow and the mix. Some quick thoughts:
– Western parts of the state may get in on a touch of light snow early today. That should then taper off a bit as we go through the afternoon.
– The radar today will have more bark than bite as it should show a lot of snow that’s not reaching the ground.
– A wave of low pressure develops to our south and works eastward to our south. Moisture will slowly increase later this evening and overnight and last into New Year’s Day.
– The NAM has a colder profile than the GFS, but the GFS is much wetter than the NAM. If you could get those two to combine, you would have a nice little snowstorm. Regardless… I think the GFS is a bit too wet and has too much of a warm layer aloft.
– Here is a rough outline of what I’m expecting to happen in terms of precipitation type…
– Areas that are mainly snow could pick up 1″- 3″. Any mixing of sleet or freezing rain where you live will cut down on those totals.
– As I said earlier, this will be another one to nowcast so I can see exactly how the temps today and tonight are playing out and then adjust accordingly.
– I expect moisture to linger into Tuesday night across southern and southeastern Kentucky and that should turn to mostly snow. That may be enough to put down some light accumulations in those areas.
I will have updates later today. Happy New Year and take care.