Tracking Another Storm To End 2012

Good Monday and Happy New Year! We are wrapping up a wild year of weather on a very wintry note as we track our third winter storm in a week. This storm is going to bring another round of snow, mix and rain to the bluegrass state and figuring out where those lines set up will be the challenge of the day.

Today will be another day of nowcasting the system moving into the state as some areas will be walking the fine line between snow and the mix. Some quick thoughts:

- Western parts of the state may get in on a touch of light snow early today. That should then taper off a bit as we go through the afternoon.

- The radar today will have more bark than bite as it should show a lot of snow that’s not reaching the ground.

- A wave of low pressure develops to our south and works eastward to our south. Moisture will slowly increase later this evening and overnight and last into New Year’s Day.

- The NAM has a colder profile than the GFS, but the GFS is much wetter than the NAM. If you could get those two to combine, you would have a nice little snowstorm. Regardless… I think the GFS is a bit too wet and has too much of a warm layer aloft.

- Here is a rough outline of what I’m expecting to happen in terms of precipitation type…

Special

- Areas that are mainly snow could pick up 1″- 3″. Any mixing of sleet or freezing rain where you live will cut down on those totals.

- As I said earlier, this will be another one to nowcast so I can see exactly how the temps today and tonight are playing out and then adjust accordingly.

- I expect moisture to linger into Tuesday night across southern and southeastern Kentucky and that should turn to mostly snow. That may be enough to put down some light accumulations in those areas.

I will have updates later today. Happy New Year and take care.


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102 Responses to Tracking Another Storm To End 2012

  1. Braden Petry says:

    Will you have a snow fall map today ?

  2. Chelle says:

    Probably get just enough snow for our first snowday,since they are suppose to go back Wednesday lol

    • pattyversailles says:

      Hi Chelle!
      Still using the snowflake site you posted a couple years ago! My niece keeps having babies that grow up to be entertained!! Perfect thing for that!!! Let it Snow!!!

    • Rachel says:

      Serves them all right for not giving these kids 2 full weeks of break!

  3. RunningRyan says:

    Just can’t win here in Bowling Green. WE are dome central.

  4. Cosmokramer says:

    3 storms in a week? Where have I been? I missed all 3 of them and the third one hasn’t arrived yet. (I just confused myself too…lol)
    As I pointed out in previous snow call maps, Morgan County is always split and it is happening once again. So, again I will predict light dry snow and no accumulation in my garage. Morgan County heads back to school on Wednesday, Jan. 2nd and based in Chris’ thoughts, I would advise those kids to hit the bed early Tuesday night.

  5. feederband says:

    Oh look, another WWA. Whoopee! Can’t wait for another inch of snow (detect frustration here). The metro is on the southern end of the WWA so it appears that So. IN get’s it………again.

    Happy New Years Eve to everybody.

  6. Andy Rose says:

    looks like another all rain event for SE KY again

  7. Owensboro was dropped from the WWA. I wanted snow, but wanted no part of freezing rain.

  8. Mike S says:

    Looking at radar right now…I’m getting 2″ of virga. Yeah. Just made my invisible snowball as I typed this.

  9. prelude says:

    Someone correct me if Im wrong but that is a whole lot of precip from Kentucky to Kansas and Oklahoma

  10. Weatherdadof2 says:

    London is currently 27 degrees and cloudy, whereas Lex and Louisville are in the 30s, yet London is supposed to be all rain and the other cities are ice and snow. Hmmmmmm….seems peculiar.

  11. LD says:

    Wintry Mix = feels cold enough to snow but will only rain…just like Christmas Eve and all the others so far this year.

  12. rolo says:

    nothing to see here, Lexington GTOWN south all rain with mix at times. only snow be OHIO RIVER/BOONE COUTY county areas. NOTHING TO SEE HERE.

  13. Ready4Snow says:

    Not looking good a little further down the road…Gulf of alaska looks to be a mess so no +pna….Nao looks to go slightly postive also …Hopefully this pattern won’t stay around too long…Still should have some hit and miss of cold air so you never know..

  14. Mike says:

    I predict Richmond will add 0″ to its season total of 0″. IWBIWISI

  15. Lincoln says:

    Who wants to have a toast in the rain after we fall of the cliff tonight?

  16. rolo says:

    well toast, TOASTED!! is my perfered word as NEW YEARS EVE is off and running!!weeeeeeeeeeeee

  17. Todd says:

    Warm air aloft takes the cake with this one, not cold enough in KY for real winter weather!

  18. BubbaG says:

    Funny, I think of this song from Kiss every time we get cold rain. It is called Cold Gin, but I replace with Cold RAIN and instead of “together” I replace with “Kentucky”.

    • BubbaG says:

      BTW, I used to listen to this double album a LOT when we got snowed in back in 77/78. All the electronics we had then was our music and about seven TV channels. We were out of school for almost a month in Floyd and Johnson county.

      • Ready4Snow says:

        one of my buddies got in a fight with a marine in floyd co.around that time at a hamburger joint named Scottys..Remember you saying you were in the marines….Needless to say my buddy got his rear end kicked good….Always thought scottys had the best hamburgers there ever was…

        • BubbaG says:

          Now THAT is going back!. The other good place and still is there is Dairy Cheer :)

        • Mark II says:

          I have fond memories for all the songs from that era. All we had to do for the weeks out of school was listen to music. I remember “Slip Sliding Away” was played a lot! :)

      • Mike says:

        7! How did you get 7? In Madison county we got 4; 18, 27, 36 (formerly channel 62) and KET and sometimes 36 didn’t come in very well!

    • chris g in clay county says:

      cold gin is a awesome tune by a awesome band. was a bigger fan before the newer lineup ,but they still a awesome band.

      its cold rain time again
      you know the warm air always win
      cold rain time again
      you know its the most precip
      that hits kentucky

      not the best .. but best i could do at the moment..

  19. Andy Rose says:

    not a whole lot of IMPACT when all ya get is RAIN ;)

    • BubbaG says:

      Yes, but IMPACT and RAIN together gives more… IMPACT! ;)

      It is all in the marketing. That said, 64 on up read this blog too.

  20. bjenks says:

    What does Chris mean by Impact, Impact, Impact……He tweeted that and hour ago????

    • Chris Mercer says:

      Usually when he says that the is wanting a local NWS office to issue some kind of advisory based upon impact rather than specific criteria. My guess he doesn’t think LMK and JKL have advisories far enough south for tonight. But that is a total guess.

    • Todd says:

      NWS no Winter weather advisory for tonight in Central KY?

    • BubbaG says:

      I think he is throwing out power words to offset for the lack of power the storm will have ;)

      Either that or he is referring to folks traveling tonight and if it got real slick. If it gets windy and in the twenties, the wet stuff will be ice stuff.

      Seems snow though is more an issue north of the river and especially/mainly north of 64.

    • Joey Wilson says:

      Think he means the NWS should issue weather advisories based on travel impact, not necessarily expected amounts of precip. It’s New Year’s Eve so lots of people on streets = more possible slide offs, wrecks even with minor amounts of ice.

  21. Joey Wilson says:

    This looks like the last chance of measurable precip in this current “open window” and it’s going to be mostly rain again for KY. :( Am hoping we’ll see more open windows in Jan and Feb.

    • WXman says:

      Yep, remember how a few days ago I was talking about the AO index going strongly positive in January? We’re already seeing that being reflected in the GFS runs from today…January looks very quiet over at least the first couple of weeks. Better get some snow tonight because it may be a long stretch of boring weather around here after tomorrow.

  22. Spotter says:

    Snowing in Union co. Brief sleet/no rain

  23. Vinny says:

    I’ve recieved a good 2-3″ of virga, and it’s still coming down..!!!

    GO CATS..!

  24. FrustratedWiththeComments says:

    Some of you people KILL me… All you do is complain, complain, complain. You all need a hobby or 2… Sheesh.

    Once again, Mr. Bailey, THANK YOU for all you do. Rather it snows or ices, or just rains, I am happy to have been thoroughly informed via your blog. Keep on doing what your doing because some of us really do appreciate it.

    Sincerely,
    A ‘frustrated-with-the-people’, ‘appreciative’, ‘snow-loving’, ‘non-complaining-about-the-weather’ reader of your blog

    • Andy Rose says:

      this is some peoples hobby ;)

    • Spotter says:

      What he/she said. ^^

    • Julie says:

      I disagree!! I love getting on here to read the friendly bickering and amateur forecasting! (Not CB of course). If you don’t like the comments then stick with the main page. But thanks for stopping by and making me giggle! ;)

      Now, START SNOWING for goodness sake! 4″ wasn’t enough for me! Geeesh! Seriously though, drove from Frankfort to Shelbyville yesterday morning. Noticed the lesser snow totals that way. Then headed back thru Frankfort to Lex and noticed the same decline in snow. Frankfort got really lucky and it makes me really happy! Fingers are crossed for more.

      Have a great day y’all!!

      • FrustratedWiththeComments says:

        It has nothing to do with the “friendly bickering” as you call it. It has to do with flat out rudeness of some people and the lack of appreciation.

        My goal is not to make you giggle, or to make any friends on here, but I am glad I was able to do one of those. I will work at the latter, possibly… Nah, who am I kidding.

    • FrustratedWithPeopleBeingFrustratedWithPeoplComplaining says:

      Meh! :)

    • BubbaG says:

      Let me guess…. You got snow- huh, am I right?? Kind of lessens the IMPACT if you do ;)

      • FrustratedWiththeComments says:

        Saying “Ahh man, we didn’t get any snow this go around”… Heck, even “*&$%, I want some snow!!”… but the whole thing that it could literally be snowing outside and some people on here are so negative, they would still say “Nope, not going to snow, DOME rules, blah blah blah.” That is what makes me say what I say. Pure rudeness and negative attitude.

        • Andy Rose says:

          Dome rules is a fact of life not rudeness it has everything with bucking the trend as Bubba G has been waiting for

          • BubbaG says:

            Good point, Frustrated has doubted the Dome. How much more no-big-snow misery must we “endure” now that the D has been spoken about in vain??

            If you have seen Sponge Bob, this is kind of like the Magic Conch episode :)

            • FrustratedWiththeComments says:

              I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that if KY could cut back slightly on the meth production, the “Dome” might diminish ever so slightly.

              PS – I don’t doubt the dome. I would love a snow “a-hole deep”, as my dad always used to say, but I know when to complain and whine like a little kid and when not to. Chris works very hard and I just feel like so many on here don’t respect/appreciate what all he does and if they do, they have a funny way of showing it. Maybe I am wrong on that, but my guess is that I am not completely alone in thinking this.

        • BubbaG says:

          Did you get snow? If not, kind of fair point. If you did get snow, kind of like somebody winning a lottery and saying that money is not important. Different scale but relative point. :)

  25. Ready4Snow says:

    Impact could mean a little sleet or freezing rain

  26. Todd says:

    5 inches of snow in Frankfort for December not bad after the last winter, A few more snows in January, February and this will be a good winter!

  27. Ben C says:

    At Walmart today and every line was back up like Black Friday. You would think the prediction of snow in Lexington was the apocalypse or the 4 horseman riding.

  28. Todd says:

    1 inch or less in the forecast for Frankfort, seems a stretch calling this a winter storm, but this is New Year’s Eve and the people will be more impaired than the weather ;) be safe folks and Happy new year blogger buddies!

  29. Andy Rose says:

    Something is missing…..
    Oh i know WKYT severe weather day ;)

  30. Todd says:

    Ok folks, 2012 KY weather top 5

    1. March Tornado’s
    2. Drought
    3. Snow dome
    4. Extreme Heat in July (105 in Frankfort)
    5. Snow on Halloween in east KY (sandy)

  31. rolo says:

    its snowin heavy in machester!! and the boos even heavier

  32. MarkLex says:

    This storm isn’t going to be anything much, but what depresses me most is the quiet extended forecast. Yawn boring! Hopefully it won’t last. This blog will be quite the next week or so (relatively speaking)

    • BubbaG says:

      Yeah. If CB thought today was a threat, he would have updated by now, since a lot of folks will start their journey to parties soon.

      My pickled senses tell me (Kiss guitars please): It’s Cold Rain time again, you know it’s the only thing, we get in Kentucky!!!!

  33. pizzaman(nw illinois) says:

    21 degrees with a wind chill of 8 degree brrrrrrr

  34. WendyT says:

    I’m glad nothing here so far this go around. Especially freezing rain. Hubby and I got the flu and we barely have the energy to feed the farm, let alone deal with nasty weather.

    Happy New Year to all! Be safe tonight if you’re heading out.

  35. Carrie says:

    Wishing for another update Chris!!!! I want snow!!!!!

  36. BubbaG says:

    On the positive side, this is the coldest by far for the last five New Years Eves. It is usually on the warm side, but mid 30s at the moment. About 20 degrees cooler than several of the last NYEs. Some were so warm there were wiggly swarms earth worms wiggling around. Really.

    • BubbaG says:

      I know because I walk my pooches before we go out for NYE. Just now did and MUCH colder than the last five. Still cold rain temps, but it is cold.

      • BubbaG says:

        I walk them every other day. Not once a year ;)

      • LD says:

        40 atm in Berea but feels like 60. I’m in shorts and firing up the grill. How do you want your burgers? Drink-wise, I’ve got plenty of margarita mix but I’ve been out of wintry mix for weeks now, sorry.

  37. Andy Rose says:

    there is some cold solid stuff falling from the sky dunno what it is bubba

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