2013 Starts Messy

Happy New Year! 2013 is off and running on a rather nasty note across the bluegrass state. Rain,sleet and snow were around as the clock hit midnight and that action will continue out there today.Where do we go for the first week of the new year? I’m glad I asked that question. :)

- The early day mix will leave behind some slick spots on area roads… especially north and northeast. Keep an eye on southeastern Kentucky this evening and overnight. There could be a stripe of light snowfall.

- Wednesday will be a cold one with highs in the upper 20s and low 30s.

- A weak system dives in from the northwest on Thursday and this may bring some snow showers or flurries to parts of the state. That will have another cold shot coming in behind it for Friday.

- Let’s watch the Saturday night through Sunday time period. There will be another system diving in from the northwest. This one is trending stronger on the models and this could be a sneaky little snow maker. The GFS is even sniffing it out…

GFS 2- Anyone noticing just how cold this pattern has gotten lately? Lexington only hit 40 degrees one day out of the last week of December and we may not see 40 for the first week of the new year.

- If you watched my winter forecast on WKYT-TV before Thanksgiving, you know I said most of our cold and snow would come from mid January through mid February. That call looks very good right now and I’m even more bullish on the cold and snow than I was then. Right on cue, the GFS has been advertising this pattern kicking in toward the end of next week…

GFS 3

Thanks for all you guys did for the blog in 2012 and thanks for welcoming me back to WKYT-TV. You helped make us the most watched TV news station in Lexington during the November ratings period. I appreciate you guys and wish nothing but peace and prosperity for each of you.

Happy New Year and take care.


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88 Responses to 2013 Starts Messy

  1. braden petry says:

    Thank you Chris. Happy new year !!

  2. alena says:

    Thanks Chris. Wishing you a very happy new year. I really appreciate this blog. I visit it at least 3or4 times a day. You are the best.

  3. KP says:

    That’s great news about WKYT’s ratings. Congrats to the whole team, but we know it’s because of Chris! :)

  4. Chris Mercer says:

    34 degrees, fog with some kind of precip falling (not sure–rain, sleet, who knows) cloudy with still some snow on the ground. Looks like a messy start to 2013 here in Lawrenceburg for sure!

  5. sue(flatwoods,ky) says:

    still have some snow on the ground from the Friday snow, had more sleet and frezzing rain last night then snow, but i am happy that we got the snow we have had so far and looking forward to see what 2013 will being us here!!!!!!! Thanks Chris for all your work and wishing you and your family a Happy New Year!!!!!

  6. LD says:

    Before the last week, I distinctly remember someone here mentioning that the first 3 weeks of December were on track to put us in the top 10 *warmest* Decembers on record (hmm…I think we were running at #3 at that point). How did the temps during the last week influence the final outcome? While the pattern did get colder, it apparently wasn’t cold enough to bring any of the predicted snows to all areas (e.g. totally rain again last night). Here’s hoping to better results in 2013!

    • Chris Mercer says:

      It was me, and here are the outcomes.

      Lexington finished at 41.8 tied for 2006 with #10

      Bowling Green finished at 45.8 good for #7

      Louisville finished at 43.5 out of the Top 10

      Frankfort finished at 41.7 good for #9

      I was wrong for SDF but good on the others. I still believe it will be difficult to have a “below normal” winter temperatures wise unless we have a major arctic outbreak.

      • Jessica says:

        So what is the average typically for December. I was on weather.com and they list the December average as 44. If 41.8 is top 10 and tied with 2006 it seems the December average would be lower. Wonder how they calculate these averages? They list January as having an average of 41.

        • Chris Mercer says:

          Those are average highs for December/January. When you also factor in the lows…

          The average December temp for Lexington is 36.0. January is 32.9 and February is 36.9.

          • Jessica says:

            That makes sense. I realized theirs was the average high but I did not realize you where taking highs and lows. I do see how this December could have been so warm because it seemed that so many times it actually warmed up and rained here at night as these possible snows came through. 36 at 3:00 and 39 at 10:00 (talking afternoon-night temperatures).

  7. Coffeady says:

    A cold rain falling here on the first day of 2013. Hope the snow will visit us in southern ky at some point . Chris, thank you so much for the blog. I know it is a lot of work, but I depend on it every day. This blog ang Wkyt are my sources for weather! Happy New Year to you and your family from ours. May 2013 be the best year ever for everyone of my weather friends!

    • RhondaB says:

      CoffeeLady, I just want to say that I admire your positive outlook. You’re never negative, and always have good things to say. Don’t know you personally, but you must be a really nice person!

  8. JJTeach says:

    Love this blog Chris and look forward to it’s future. Happy New Year everyone! Hope it brings the amount of winter that each of you desire ;)

  9. KRinRichmond says:

    Snow for my area in the month of December……BUST!!! Winter so far…BUST. January and February better kick it in gear.

  10. turner says:

    It is currently 36 with a little drizzle. DId not see any sleet or freezing rain or snow while working last night(Deputy Sheriff) I was up on some higher elevations but still nothing. Roads were wet but not slick.

  11. Cosmokramer says:

    Silent Night, Holy Night….all was calm, nothing turned white.

    38* and more rain…..on the upside, we did get more than a coating of rain and am thankful it wasn’t 2″ of rain. Temps hanging tough in mid-30s to low 40s. Last night’s non-event will make it tough for any coating today/tonight. Now we can set our snow gauges at zero and see what 2013 can bring.

  12. Cole in McCreary says:

    Happy new year Chris and all the boggers! I have fog and drizzle this morning.

  13. deedlegirl says:

    Happy New Year!

  14. WXman says:

    Looks like the models were spot on this time.

    • BubbaG says:

      They always are to some degree. It depends on how you weight them from a regression standpoint in regards to temps and type of precipitation results The tighter the R Square (how accurate), for a rolling trend, the more weight the model gets. It is a dynamic process and helps weed out models that are outliers (they get a lot less weight in the composite (average).

      That is how Bubba rolls. Yes, this method can be too general due to different models having different sensitivities to certain type of systems. Also, some models do not consider snow packs very well, but THAT is why you apply the weighted average.

      Regardless of mumbo jumbo, the GFS has been a significant player in picking up the warm air factor for last winter and this winter- so far.

  15. Joey Wilson says:

    NWS in Paducah calling for a dry week and moderating temps starting this upcoming weekend. Hoping Chris is right!

  16. Mike says:

    We added 0″ last night and yesterday to our seasonal snow total of 0″ in Richmond. IWBIWISI. 8-6-24

    • BubbaG says:

      If any shared misery consolation, the rain washed our 0.5″ last night. It is pretty bad when even a coating forecast gets busted. Cooler or not, we need temps to actually be below freezing to get anything.

      The good news is due to the warm air aloft, we would have got ice if it had been below freezing. I doubt snow was going to be the result for folks a little north or south of the river this time. Seems the same for tonight if precipitation hangs around.

      • chris g in clay county says:

        was it your 33 degree rule or vinnies
        i forget
        33 degrees and higher = precip , mostly rain
        32 degrees – no precip

        thats the way it normally does seems like.

        • BubbaG says:

          I am the one that kept pointing out since five years ago. Folks went from “shut up, your wrong”, to “shut up, you’re right”. ;)

  17. Ben C says:

    For those if you that have not received any snow yet this season,by mid February,I promise you will be crying uncle! Going to be a very bumpy ride from mid January through midsnFebruary by the looks oall the models…I do believe CB is spot on with his forecast he made in November for the upcoming winter. At least it will slow down just long enough to get my outdoor decorations down. Happy New Year and all fellow bloggers and bloggetts….may your

    • BubbaG says:

      I think the further from Lexington on south, the more likely ice will be the main player. Some snow, probably, but any significant event seems destined for ice. The warm air wants to be involved. It is almost like it is self-aware and loves Fencetucky.

    • snow lover says:

      I sure hope your right!! I’m in Adair Co. and we so desperatly need a good snow!

  18. Bernard P. Fife says:

    Messy start to 13′ in Monticello, not surprised cuz that was all of 2012 too! Hope all has a great day, but if the “pattern change” produces more rain here…i’d rather just skip it.

  19. Weatherdadof2 says:

    Happy New Year to the blog! Hopefully this year will begin with lots of snow to talk about across the whole area. Thanks, Chris, for all you do!

  20. Neil says:

    Happy New Year Everyone! The cold rain in Wilmore did its job last night, and washed away most if the snow we had left from Friday. Just patches here and there now, drizzle and 34 degrees – a miserable weather day!

  21. Andy Rose says:

    Drizzle Drizzle Drizzle

  22. Leann says:

    Happy New Year, CB!

  23. cjmajorgirl24 says:

    Happy New Year, Chris!! You are THE best!!

  24. Woodsman says:

    Picked up 5-6″ of the heavy wet stuff last night, thanks Chris!

  25. Trend Hard Truth says:

    Cold=dry. Wet=warm

    For the most part thats our trend folks. Hopefully someday we will see a break in the trend. I hate to say it but its not looking too good

  26. pattyversailles says:

    Happy New Year Chris and to all of you! No snow here! January is a long cold month and I’m sure our snow chances will be frequent. Maybe even the big one won’t be able to elude us this year!! If not I’ll just look forward to spring!

  27. Todd says:

    Micah Harris at noon said a lot of areas got 1-2 inches of snow last night, where????

  28. JJTeach says:

    Anybody else noticing the snow on the radar across western Kentucky heading east?? Although, it’s 34 degrees here in Lawrenceburg so I doubt it will be snow when it gets here.

  29. Connor Smith says:

    Yep. Been tracking it for a couple hours now. Should be light snow in Louisville within an hour or two. Anticipate half to an inch of the white stuff. I’ll take it.

  30. Connor Smith says:

    It will be snow for the Louisville area. One can clearly see the imaginary rain/snow line setting up just (you guessed it) south of 64!

  31. Aaron C. says:

    As someone who suffers from chronic depression, let me just go on the record here and say that this relentless cloudy, rainy, snowless weather does not lift the spirits.

    If snow were falling, it would be something to watch and get excited for.
    If it were sunny, one could open the blinds and take a better look at the world.

    The cloudy, rainy, cold skies are unwelcoming and hindering. Get the snow coming down, or get the sunshine out. The rain must go. Now, please.

    Thank you.

    • Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

      The GFS & NAM does not look promising for the next 72hrs. At least we will see the orange ball in the sky from time to time. If we are going to have a lull for a week( more or less) I hope the temps are above normal.

  32. Andy Rose says:

    Winter oh Winter where for art thou oh Winter? Its not in knox county thats for sure.

  33. Teach says:

    One thing I am noticing so far is the temperature being higher than forecast. Take today for instance, the high was supposed to be 32 and it is 35 right now. In the winter temps are key for snow. 35 means cold rain and 32 means wet snow. I think we have to see some cold (below 32 for highs) before we can see any snow. We did get 7″ in Harrison County this last go around, so not complaining. Just making an observation.

  34. rolo says:

    Teach one biggest snows i ever sawe it was above freezing, 34-35 can be a GRRRREAT SNOWING TEMP if everything sets up right.

    but as u know last 15 years round here it hasnt.

  35. Todd says:

    About 90% of the 4 inches of snow has melted that fell in Frankfort a couple days ago, so as usual the weather won’t stay cold enough to keep snow around! Looks like a mild week coming up starting this weekend, hopeful that doesn’t set in like it did last winter?

    • Chris Mercer says:

      If it does, we will have one of the warmest winters of record. Last year was a Top 10 warmest and December was warmest than last years’ December. Last years’ winter average at Lexington was 39.3 good for sixth warmest since the 1870′s. December averaged 41.8. So, we have some work to go yet to even get colder than last year.

  36. Dawnp007 says:

    “Snow provokes responses that reach right back to childhood.”
    Andy Goldsworthy

  37. WXman says:

    December was active in Lawrenceburg. 7.63″ of rain. 4.5″ of snow. Avg. temp. 41.8 degrees. Now AO index is going positive and January will be calmer. The good news about this is that we’ll have a shot at picking up the storminess again at the end of winter and that is historically when we get our best winter storms.

    • MJ says:

      Well, the AO is one piece of the puzzle, but its not really been a huge driving factor lately…that has been the Pacific flow. The rest of the week does look cold, but the pattern looks to relax a bit over the weekend and into next week. Yes, I see those little systems that CB mentioned, but I’m not all that excited about the opportunity with those at this time. Yesterday’s and today’s data still show a signal in which the pattern could pick back up around the 20th-21st or sometime thereafter. Though, we’ll probably be on the fence once again.

  38. Aaron C. says:

    Well, we know how much snow Richmond has received in December. About 0.2″. Now, as for the rain—I don’t know. I would estimate around 5 inches, but that could be off.

  39. Aaron C. says:

    And, yes, as far as snow (so far,) we are currently sitting on the 2nd driest snow winter in recorded history here.

  40. Chris Mercer says:

    No complaints from me if the cold relaxes in January. Had good rain in December plus a 4 inch snow event. It took until March 5th to have a 4 inch snow event last winter. If this winter is going to be mild (overall) I’ll take a rainy winter, which replenishes the water table plus a 4 inch snow event. And who knows. Maybe a blockbuster snow event in Late January, February or March. 5 inches of snow so far for the season. Good start if you ask me.

  41. bjenks says:

    Chris…..Happy New Year!!! Thanks for all of your thoughts over the past year(s). May 2013 bring you and your family many happy times. Happy New Year to all my fellow weather watchers.
    Keep in mind that Winter is only 10 days old. We have two and half months to get through and the cold is on its way. I see a Jan/Feb equal to 77/78 in terms of temps. Once it sets in we will need to see the southern stream of storms progress weekly through the west side of the Apps. THINK SNOW!!!!

  42. MarkLex says:

    I remember that snow event last march here. I think we were the area of Lexington that received 5 inches. I was very surprised since it was so late in the year.

    About the pattern relaxing…….Yes, Dec was Active but the two to three months prior to that were pretty relaxed! So I was hoping that Dec-Jan-Feb would be active. Three months on/three months off. I guess that’s not how it works.

    • MJ says:

      That snow was on March 5th…3 days after that Ohio Valley tornado outbreak. Very weird to see snow covered tornado damage.

      • MarkS says:

        I was up on my roof adding shingles to cover tornado damage when the snow started. I thought I was going to slip off the roof.

        Weird time.

        • BubbaG says:

          I am impressed. I would have probably fell.

          • MarkS says:

            I was more impressed that the roof did not leak after that. I had to get the roof replaced a month later, but the patches held until then.

            I just was amazed sitting there. I could see the path of the tornado from my roof, and here was all this snow falling. I got off the roof before it got too bad, but I was afraid 4″ of snow would melt and leak through.

  43. pizzaman(nw illinois) says:

    beautiful sunny but frigid day here today currently 18 above wind chill 6 the actual is going down to 2 above by morning happy new year.

  44. bjenks says:

    Has anyone seen the GFS for Sat 130112 1200V264 it has over 24 inches of snow for central Kentucky. This is some real EYE CANDY for all of Kentucky. (tried to post pic but could not)

    We need something to talk about for the next two weeks. LOL

  45. Mike says:

    Ah yes the TWAS (TWO week away storm). This is becoming more laughable than are politicians in Washington!

    • BubbaG says:

      Sadly, they are not funny in the least. Any other job and most of these people (and for that matter a lot of current gov employees) would be fired for ethics and performance.

      • BubbaG says:

        I differentiate between elected people and employees. Both have a lot of bad, but it is “our” fault the bad politicians are in office. For either party.

        See how wimpy our weather is? We talk about this kind of stuff instead of the weather. The only thing that both have in common are that they are tangibly bad. ;) ……. :(

  46. Andy Rose says:

    no snow again for South East KY

    • BubbaG says:

      If the mean of the cold temps does not start a trend of shifting south, a lot of us could be out of luck as far as snow.

      Our luck is the cold will shift, but the warm air will still get involved and result in a lot of ice involved for big events. If you all recall, I saw a trend of this a few years ago and a few weeks prior to the ice storm started posting with “Ice, Ice, Baby”. Frankly, I would not recall that either if I were you, but I am getting a similar data trend vibe. Darn warm air in the winter. Boo!

      Not saying ice ATM, but seems the ingredients are there this year for the potential: Cold air probably moving south in a few weeks and STUBBORN warm air sticking around the fence.

  47. Ben C says:

    Do you mean this Saturday? I believe CB would be talking about that by now.

  48. TrendHardTruth says:

    Well I was really hoping for some frozen stuff/snow for London KY area, but it isn’t looking like that is going to happen. Chris do you think we could get a little of anythign around London tonight? I really want school to be cancelled in the morning. lol

    I am hoping for a trend buster soon. Not looking good is it?

  49. TONEY says:

    testing

    • TONEY says:

      i commented “testing” a few seconds ago due to the fact i have not been able to leave a comment all day….it kept saying access has been denied by sucuri……i contacted chris by e-mail and he responded and said it must be in my computer such as virus or something but i was able to leave comments at weatherbell.com and wsaz.com…….but any way that is why i commented the word testing……if any one else has had this problem today or anytime please let me know.

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