Tracking Another Busy Setup

Good Friday, everyone. We have made it to the first weekend of the new year and the cold temps hang tough across the commonwealth. The cold will eventually produce some light snow before the weekend is over. The longer term outlook is getting more and more of my attention as we have some wicked winter weather lurking.

Temps today will top out in the low and mid 30s for many areas. The day may even start out with a snow flurry or two in the north.

The system rolling in for the weekend will cause clouds to increase on Saturday and a rain or snow shower will break out from southwest to northeast late in the day. This system will develop a little a further as it works to the northeast of us and we should get in on a period of light snow behind it. The GFS shows this very well…

GFS

If we are to see a small accumulation, it would come late Sunday afternoon and evening.

The warm up for next week continues to look wimpy, wimpy, wimpy. A storm system will develop and head toward the Great Lakes late Tuesday into early Wednesday. This will drag a strong cold front across the state. This could lead to plenty of showers and gusty winds as it rolls through…

GFS 2

Temps will fall quickly behind the front on Wednesday and it’s not out of the question to see some flakes to end this thing. That’s a heck of a way to run a warm up! ;)

That takes us toward the end of next week into the following weekend and that’s when we will start a period of harsh winter weather for much of the country. Check out the big drip in the jet stream by next Saturday…

GFS

A big ridge pops along the west coast as severe blocking shows up across the North Pole. The polar vortex is forecast to slide southward into Canada and the pattern suggests it could make a run at the states at some point the following week…

GFS 2

My cold and snow juices are flowing as I look at the pattern taking shape for the middle and end of January.

Have a great Friday and take care.


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42 Responses to Tracking Another Busy Setup

  1. Johnny says:

    So will SE Kentucky see ANY snow this year? We have missed out on all of the snow this winter so far. Snow done must have moved over London/Corbin/Clay/Somerset area.

  2. LD says:

    Just heard this on the radio this morning…”west TEXAS storm to dump up to 8 inches of snow across that area”. Every time I read about it snowing abnormal amounts in places like Texas, it always seems like when you see someone drunkenly toss a dart into an bystander’s butt when aiming for the board.

  3. Toni Carroll says:

    The very fact that you mention “the end of January” in your post says to me that spring is coming!!
    We all know February is only 10 or so days long and March is the goal, so the end of January shows me a tiny twinkle of light at the end of the long and dark winter tunnel.
    Come on spring!!

    • 3789N8436W says:

      Really?! ‘long and dark’??? Maybe irritating grey and damp but not long and dark….for folks that LOVE Winter this stuff is a constant irritation and not in any way Winter. I want to see the twinkle of sun off a foot of snow at 16*…nature’s glitter…that lasts a solid week! I want a variety of blues and lavenders in snow banks and drifts…..I WANT WINTER!

  4. Honestabe says:

    Sure am hoping you are wrong about later in the month. Yesterday was much nicer than I thought it would be. Hurry bring back the 65 degree days…”

  5. rolo says:

    and southern JET is ACTIVE,ACTIVEACTIVE!! not seen it this active in long time, u seend many inpulses already to south, u get the N JET to DIP and MEET UP!!! hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

  6. Bernard P. Fife says:

    Like most everyone else I feel let down by the pattern so far this winter, but i’m willing to go “all in” one more time.Come on baby, mama needs a new pair of snow shoes!!

  7. BubbaG says:

    Quick five word summary for snow out of all this:

    All bark and no bite ;) ……. :(

  8. MarkLex says:

    Bubba – Ya know

    Beneath that thin veneer of negativity, somehow, miraculously, there is another, even thinner veneer of negativity ….

  9. BubbaG says:

    I ain’t negative, the TREND is negative and it’s RUFF! Spelled that way on purpose.

    • RhondaB says:

      BubbaG, you make me smile and I need all of those I can get right now. Since the tornado I’ve not really cared about any weather as long as it’s not one of those again. I think my snow longing days are over. Not trying to be negative, it just changed my outlook.

  10. Mark says:

    Western Kentucky, your long wait is almost over.

    Weather permitting, dual-pol upgrade of the PAH radar at WFO Paducah is scheduled to start this Monday.
    http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pah/?n=dualpolupgrade
    Work could last two weeks, but experience with other radars shows upgrades tend to be finished in about a week or less. Anyway, PAH will be completely out of service until upgrade is finished, so us weather weenies will need to use other adjacent radars. ;)

    Once PAH is finished, HPX (Ft Campbell/Hopkinsville) and VWX (Evansville/Owensville, Indiana) radars are next (HPX and VWX are controlled by WFO Paducah).

    PAH, HPX and VWX are the last National Weather Service radars in our immediate area to be upgraded to dual-pol. Apparently, Paducah was originally scheduled for an early 2012 upgrade. Unfortunately, Paducah got pushed back a year, even though adjacent radars at both St Louis and Springfield Missouri were upgraded nearly a year ago. WFO Springfield covers Joplin MO which of course had its devastating twister in May 2011.

  11. Todd says:

    The Weather Channel is forecasting thunderstorms and 55 next Thursday for Frankfort, Just watched a Louisville area met saying we are headed for 2 weeks of warmer weather, Chris needs to show these guys how to forecast winter weather around here :)

    • BengalFan says:

      No offense, but I heard back in middle / end of november that middle of december going to be cold/snow (that), IMO, Madison county south and east at least, didnt see that. It wasnt that cold and for sure not that much snow! So, I’m keeping with the TREND, sorry(I want to bet it, but going to save my money on “cold and snow juices flowing”). cold should be 15 and below, and snow on the ground..alot of it!!! I’m betting against it, but man oh man would I love to lose!!!!

    • Chris Mercer says:

      Even the weather channel 10-day forecast has a high of 36 on Sunday, January 13 for Lawrenceburg. They have five days of above normal highs (Tues-Sat). With Saturday January 12 being 43. Two weeks would keep the warm starting from Tuesday January 8 to at least Monday January 21. That sounds kind of long to me.

  12. Chris Mercer says:

    For sure since about December 22nd the pattern has been much colder and say, for at least half of Kentucky snowier. There were a few days in the 40′s from December 22-26, but even during that parts of Western KY got a good snow. Then beginning on December 27, Lexington has not cracked 40 any day. Considering our average high is 41, I’d say that’s a pretty good run of cold. That is nine straight days of below average highs. There is still snow on the ground (in the shady) places and still on the sides of some of the roads here in Lawrenceburg and that snow fell on December 27-28.

  13. Todd says:

    I think I have figured something out about local mets, if they like warm weather they will lean toward a warmer forecast, and the ones that like cold lean toward the colder forecast! It usually ends up somewhere in between the two!

  14. Teacher Nate says:

    Who’s ready for the beach?? THIS GUY. Don’t like winter. Give me 90 degree days and pop up thunderstorms..baby!!!

  15. JJTeach says:

    Oh how I long for a colorful snowfall map with the core of the highest totals sliding straight across central Kentucky. It would make me so happy!

  16. Jeff Hamlin says:

    High school football games? Chris? lol :)

  17. BubbaG says:

    My prediction is the rest of winter is going to be “ruff”. ;)

    No doubt it’s has been a sustained cold, since there is still some snow left over from the 4″ they got in South Lex…. Perhaps someone should store it in a freezer and preserve for future generations :)

    • MikeM says:

      I don’t want to torment my future generation and make them anguish over snow storms 7 – 14 days away that somehow fail to materialize.

  18. Todd says:

    I can smell a big snow storm lurking after the 15th of January, not saying everyone in KY gets the same amount but someone in central KY 10 inches plus is a comin!

  19. WXman says:

    The storm coming in next week is looking more and more like a heavy rain threat.

    As far as the arctic blast for the third week of January…don’t bet your boots on it just yet. The teleconnections are still not looking ripe for a huge surge of arctic air into the country.

    • Todd says:

      Huge arctic blast would push the storm track to far south anyway, so moderate cold usually works better for KY in big snow chances!

      • Chris Mercer says:

        I agree! We always have our lowest temps after a snow and then an arctic outbreak. Every time I have seen it less than say, minus 5, we have had snow on the ground and then an arctic outbreak. I can think of Feb 1996, Jan 1994, Dec 1989 and Jan 1985 as some examples in my lifetime. I believe the temp hit -10 or lower in all those months.

        • Chris Mercer says:

          I can never remember the temp reaching even the single digits above zero without a snowpack. But I could be wrong.

  20. Chris Mercer says:

    Already down to 24 here at 9:15 P.M. Could we have the lowest temp of the season in Lawrenceburg tonight? 17.5 is the lowest I’ve seen so far.

    • Todd says:

      Seems really possible of the coldest night tonight, On another thought can anyone remember the last time Ky had heavy snow with temps below say 25 degrees, I can only remember the late 70′s for the heavy powder snows (drifting snows) in Central KY?

      • Chris Mercer says:

        We had one storm in January of 2010 were temps were very low (teens and 20s) and snow ratios very high. If I remember right, the Lake Cumberland area got the most snow (over 8 inches) and Central KY got about 2-6 inches.

        • Todd says:

          I think once in the late 70′s Frankfort had over 10 inches of snow with temps in the low teens, it was powder wind driven snow with drifts up to 4 or 5 feet deep in places, I would love to see that again!

  21. Weatherdadof2 says:

    NWS has the low temp for London tonight at 27 degrees. It’s currently 23 with clear skies and calm wind. Going for another night in the teens, I believe.

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