Weekend Update

Good Saturday everyone. We’ve made it to the first weekend of 2013 and the cold weather rolls on. This impressive cold streak has produced 9 straight days of temps sub 40 degree temps in Lexington. That’s the longest such streak since December of 2010. While we have a warmer and wet week ahead of us… a harsh period of winter is just around the corner.

We are watching a couple of systems to impact the state this weekend. The first will bring some rain or snow showers to some areas later today into the evening. The best chance for these will be across the south and southeast.

Sunday into Sunday evening will see a better chance for a few snow showers and flurries across central and eastern parts of the state. Winds will gust up as temps stay in the 30s for most areas. That will be followed by another windy and cold day Monday.

Temps will really bring to warm on Tuesday as a southwesterly flow kicks in. Temps will soar well into the 40s and we may hit 50. A developing storm system across Texas will throw some clouds our way by the end of the day and the rain won’t be too far behind.

This slow moving storm will work our way by Wednesday and Thursday. The models are slowing this bad boy down and that could mean a lot of rain. Check out the rainfall coming from the latest GFS through Friday morning…

GFSThere will likely be another storm that follows that up for next weekend. That is the system that will introduce a big time winter pattern around here for the following week and beyond. The cold will work into the west and plains states by Friday and Saturday and slowly head east from there. We will likely see it be a slow mover across our region by early that next week and that should set the stage for multiple snow chances.

That may lead much of the country into the deep freeze for the second half of January into February. Check out the brutal cold showing up on the CFS weekly forecasts for later this month…

CFSThe upcoming pattern has a certain “wow” factor to it. But, we have to get through some milder temps and a lot of water next week before we can get there.

I will have another update later today. Make it a great Saturday and take care.


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78 Responses to Weekend Update

  1. Cosmokramer says:

    Oh well, light accumulation has now dwindled to snow showers or flurries…..every event seems to be next week….and next week.

  2. Marsha says:

    Yea I just wish we had mar,April,may,over not looking forward to tornado again….

  3. Coffeady says:

    Thanks, Chris. Looks like the next couple of weeks are going to be interesting. Do hope we get to see some snow here in southern KY though. Looking forward to your next post. Have a great Saturday, everyone.

    • Susan says:

      Love your website! I wish I could go back and be a meteorologist but I think it is too late…oh well I will live vicariously through you.

  4. LD says:

    I am sick to death of the lack of effort with these under performing storms. From now on, each weather system that comes to play in our commonwealth will now have to wear a ‘precipitation monitor’. This will allow Coach Bailey to judge if they really were giving us all the snow they could, or if they were just phoning it in and believing all of the hype the models said about them. The only downside is that we will have missed the early promotional pricing that was offered by the manufacturer, S.Woods Inc, since we waited until now and didn’t buy these when the devices were first needed.

  5. BubbaG says:

    Yep, cold will move in again, but look when the moisture is here- when ABOVE freezing. That is the result for 90% of our the precipitation for any system on average.

    Considering we have not had an ice storm in a few years and ice has been our big winter events for 15 years…… could be ominous.

    BTW, i come across negative due to the historic trends have been- including this winter so far. We need a positive result to bust the trend and foster positive posts :)

    GO Bengals!

    • Mark II says:

      I don’t think you’re negative at all – just realistic. We all need the voice of reason around these parts ;)

      • BubbaG says:

        What we need is a nice 10″ snow fall with a fine ice base for super-fine sled riding and an extended snow pack :)

        I know: “You’ll put your eye out, kid”.

      • Jeff Hamlin says:

        It’s not about being negative, it’s when people say, “See I told you all I was right”…..

      • Nate in Nicholasville says:

        The “Voice of Reason”, for those of you that remember all of that, has temps much warmer than Chris is forecasting next week….

  6. Bobby A says:

    I don’t know how you can cheer on the Bengals due to their “historic trends”. They will under perform just like the winter weather systems do in Kentucky.

  7. Chris Mercer says:

    There is a real battle setting up between the NWS and Chris concerning temps next week. NWS has four straight days for Lexington in the 50′s with a peak of 55 on Thursday. Chris says “may hit 50″ on Tuesday. Let’s see who wins this battle. Chris with one day in the 50′s, the NWS with four.

    • Chris Mercer says:

      WKYT’s current seven-day forecast has NO days in the 50′s for the next seven. So, let’s use that. WKYT 0, NWS 4. Who wants to bet on who is closer :)

    • sue(Flatwoods,KY) says:

      the Weather channel has us in the 50′s (52 -58 deg) wed thru Sat. I really want it to ACTULLY be cold when we have the moisture come thru! But that never happens! But I do still have some snow left from what we got a week ago Friday so i guess i cant complain to much!!!!

  8. BubbaG says:

    Well, if the NWS data is managed by the government, their trend in managing ANYTHING is as bad as our weather trend. I will side with CB, thank you ;)

    No diss on local folks that contribute to the NWS, but a jab at any tenured people that approach life and benefits as an entitlement.

    GO Bengals!

    • Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

      Bubba I always love your comments, but your rant about the NWS is not based in facts. What is the incentive for a person no matter how much tenure they have to issue a bogus forecast.
      In my book the NWS is served with highly dedicated people.
      I am sure that NWS has many proud competitive offices across America. The last thing you want to be known for among your peers is an incorrect arrogant prognosticator.

      • Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

        By the way can you find me anybody that is batting a thousand on this blog or any local met.

      • BubbaG says:

        I am referring to a more systemic litmus of government in general, rather than an astuteness towards the NWS.

        • Snowgoose says:

          Guarantee should a tornado or flood wipe out your town big boy, you would be the first one screaming for the big bad goverment to come and save your a**. See it all the time with you yo-yos bashing the goverment being the first ones crying when they don’t come flying in to save your butt.

          • MikeM says:

            Yea big boy, the picture of that lady in the paper comes to mind with Obamas arm wrapped around her shoulder telling her exactly how the governments going to take care of her. Don’t think they have yet. Makes a good photo op though with the government (Obama) talking out of one side of his mouth while simultaneously taking a bowel movement out of the other, same as you. My apologies to the blog but dont think Bubba said anything that offensive.

          • BubbaG says:

            Yep, they did a great job! NOT!

            Insurance companies, local community and charity groups did the most. I am in no stretch of imagination a wanton government Zelig.

            You apparently support them with open arms. Watch your wallet ;)

          • BubbaG says:

            They did an awful job managing the recent hurricane. Not my conjecture, but friends, relatives and business regions I support there telling me this.

            Jeepers.

          • Nate in Nicholasville says:

            Dude, really? Let’s see how well the Gov’t is taking care of Sandy displacees….

        • Jerry Springer says:

          My Final Thoughts:I just hate it when people generalize or lump everybody into a certain category. I am sure NASA has many wonderful sciences that are heads & shoulders above many new Ivy league grads. Do you want to replace these heavy weights with the rookies.By the way I am sure that all government agency & private industries that depend on future forecast would prefer a employee with tenure, experience, & knowledge.
          Now put that tea in your pipe and smoke it.(lol).
          .” Now go out an make it a wonderful day.”

        • Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

          My Final Thoughts:I just hate it when people generalize or lump everybody into a certain category. I am sure NASA has many wonderful sciences that are heads & shoulders above many new Ivy league grads. Do you want to replace these heavy weights with the rookies.By the way I am sure that all government agency & private industries that depend on future forecast would prefer a employee with tenure, experience, & knowledge.
          Now put that tea in your pipe and smoke it.(lol).
          .” Now go out an make it a wonderful day.”

          • BubbaG says:

            Since I was not specific, from your perspective I can see your point. I am referring to the many tenured people both in government and academia that are on coast-mode and feel entitled. I saw it by civil government in the Marines and in my first two jobs out of the Marines.

            My perspective is based on three key parameters for extrapolation:

            Previous experience, current performance and human nature.

            Tangent time:

            Sadly, it appears the Bengals are sticking to their historic trend ATM. Get er’ duuunnnnn!

            • BubbaG says:

              Woop! Defense again comes through :) What about the offense though?

              Get er’ duunnnn!

            • Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

              Points well taken. I think sometimes we all get caught up in the black or white narrative. The majority of problems are a gray matter. No doubt of about it this government has many issues to deal with and there never be a perfect solution for anybody.
              But I still like the good ole USA and prefer it to the other alternatives. Think about it when you have no government there to referee or have your back you end up with Samolia.
              By the way I would love to start a birth control party. Why you might ask,we have more extreme dumb people on this earth than we do Einstiens.

      • MikeM says:

        Sorry wwwb, Bubbas right.

  9. Bengalfan says:

    It’s funny,,look at all that rain,,,,ohwell it is hat it is.

    If bengals can win today, It don’t matter bout snow r not…come on bengals, bring it!!!!

  10. rolo says:

    AL GORE sold his TV station the the ARABS, right?

    as far as weather anything u dont want u will always get, such as FLOODING and with the ground froze then warm/rain there be flooding next week with that system, u get 2-3 incxhes rain MAJIOR FLOODING????

  11. weather blog troll says:

    Hello weather junkies! Enjoy the warm up and let’s pull for some old school cold and snow to follow.

    Have a great weekend.

  12. rolo says:

    go look at ur radar/sat loop. and u see how we GET snow, if these 2 systems could have HOOKED UP, that how u get a good SNOWSTORM.

    so close yet so far away,

  13. Todd says:

    The weather channel is up 58 for Thursday in Frankfort with thunderstorms, Chris had 46, should be interesting to see who is closer to the correct outcome, Oh well it will be a all rain event even north of us this time!

  14. Chris Mercer says:

    Temps are busting on the high side today. NWS forcasted 40 for Lexington, WKYT 39. Already hit 40 as of 1:00 and sunny skies. Doubt the temp won’t rise anymore.

  15. sue(Flatwoods,KY) says:

    41 and sunny! I guess the last of my snow will be gone today! :(

  16. Todd says:

    A little snow still in the shady areas in Frankfort, the parking lot piles will be here until the warm heavy rain starts! The lake behind the house is going to love the forecast for next week!

  17. Ready4Snow says:

    Looks like the Euro is coming in cooler earlier…Bubba keep’s talking ice and i have no idea but the period of 13th-15th may get interesting…Of course this is 8-10 days away so don’t stone me to death…

  18. KP says:

    I drove up to Cincy this morning and Harrison County still has many yards covered in snow. Snowmen are standing tall!

  19. TONEY says:

    i know this is not a weather comment and for that i apologize but today is when the bengals will prove they are not a fluke and they will be well on their way to the super bowl…….bengals…..20……….texans………10

  20. Nate in Nicholasville says:

    Accucrack only has 4 days for the remainder of the month below 40 degrees, and only 2 of those four are at or below freezing. I take their extended forecast about as serious as our gov’t saying they will lower taxes, but still, hopes for this winter are fading fast for me…

  21. Ryan says:

    It’s sleeting right now in Shelbyville.

  22. Woodsman says:

    Should be close to 80″ of snowfall so far this year in WV. A week of warm weather will be nice. Having the itch to do some fishing lately. Thanks Chris!

  23. MarkLex says:

    Bubba – when I wrote that comment, I was trying to be funny. I found it was the perfect opportunity to steal a funny quote I heard from a tv show a long time ago and I changed it up a little.

    I realize you’re just being realistic

  24. snowluv says:

    and so just when we though we had some cold and snow to look forward to some of the latest model runs are suggesting otherwise for the time period when we thought would be cold and snow…looks like the warmth maybe here to stay thru the month

  25. Todd says:

    BUNGELS LIVE! Same ole Same ole, chokers in the playoffs! Andy dalton and this so called defense OVER RATED! Now back to the weather! Or lack of!

  26. Ready4Snow says:

    running game is killing bengals…

  27. weather blog troll says:

    I leave you kids alone for a few hours and you turn this into a political/football blog? Nice….

    Bengals ain’t done yet.
    Jabari/Dakari battle o’ the hoops.
    Congress…what congress?

    What lack of snow will do….

  28. kywatchman says:

    I just noticed the 10 day on my 1st alert weather app, spring fever alert. ..upper 40s, low 50s all week???
    Confused ..

  29. rolo says:

    MARVIN LEWIS has no BALLS, u open offense up. u get first down in shotgun 3 min to go and he goes back under center runs ball.lol

    SAD,

  30. Mark says:

    Now we get to watch Randall Cobb do his stuff in Green Bay :). Hope beleaguered Kentucky football fans appreciated Cobb during his career as a Wildcat. The Univ of Tennessee sure bungled by letting Cobb defect from his home state.

    Currently 28 degrees in Green Bay, not all that frigid by their standards. Interestingly, Houston has only been in the mid-40s today with cold rain showers (that game of course was indoors).

  31. Bernard P. Fife says:

    It’ll be interesting to see if Chris changes his mind on temperatures this week. The NWS & everyone is going warm…really warm, next Saturday’s temp is forecast for 63 for Monticello. Ouch

  32. BubbaG says:

    The Bengals give me the same feeling our winters do: :) meh :)

  33. Lance says:

    Hey Chris! Still a fan of your blog even though you left me in Huntington WV. Noone around here is mentioning anything about upcoming bad weather. In fact, tonight on the various news channels everone was talking about how next week and weekend will seem more like spring with temps next weekend to hit 60. What gives?? Miss you by the way!

  34. Todd says:

    As I have said before being a bengals fan is a lot like being a snow fan in KY, it gets your hopes a few days before a event only to let you down on game day! Time has run out on the BUNGELS but we still have time in the winter games?????

    • MikeM says:

      Well at least the Bengals get you to the playoffs. UK football gets your hopes up only to deliver nothing, just like the weather.

  35. Todd says:

    Chris has not posted for a while, I guess he does not like the looks of the wimpy warm up, looks like the warm up is going to over achieve next week?

  36. sue(Flatwoods,KY) says:

    Have any new weather models come out this eve? Are we going to be cold or 50′s and rain this week!

  37. Dawnp007 says:

    Oh, Mr. Baileyyyy???

  38. Bethany says:

    I think everyone needs to realize that Mr. Bailey has a life outside of the weather. A lot of other stations have a “blog” but are updated rarely. I myself don’t know that I would find the time to update as often and be so giving of my own time to make other people happy. Mr. Bailey is amazing to give so much of his free time to update people on the weather when he could be spending time with his wife and family. I am very grateful to him for giving us a large amount of his time to honestly let us know what he thinks will happen with the weather! Is he 100% accurate 100% of the time? No, but God wasn’t perfect either. Not many people would put themselves out on a limb and go in an opposite direction as what other weather people are saying. That’s what I like most about him. Mr. Bailey isn’t afraid to say what he thinks.

    I’m very appreciative to him and his family for “donating” his time to keeping everyone up to date on the weather. What ever happened to “if you can’t say anything nice, don’t say anything at all”? I think the Internet has allowed many to forget their manners!

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