Tracking Some Wild Temp Swings

Good Sunday, everyone. We are rolling toward some major temp swings over the next week and all that is leading us into a period of harsh winter weather for much of the country. That won’t fully kick in into the second half of the month, but that doesn’t mean we won’t have a lot of stuff to track in the week ahead.

Before I get into it all… let me be clear about a few things. I am not always in a position to update the blog and I do have a life outside of weather. This is done on my own free time, so chill out with the emails. I also am going to have to patrol the comments section a little more. This isn’t one of your local message boards where anything goes.

In terms of the weather… we have a weak system crossing the Ohio Valley today and this will produce a few snow showers and flurries. A rain shower or two will also be possible… especially in the south. Cold air will sweep in overnight and readings by daybreak may hit the upper teens in some areas. That sets us up for a sunny and cold Monday with highs in the 30s.

This is where the wild temp swings come into play. The big storm system rolling in from the southwest looks slower and slower. That means Tuesday into Wednesday may feature a little more in the way of dry weather. This also sets us up for a heck of a temp gradient from north to south across the region. As the low finally works in by Thursday afternoon… check out the temps on the GFS…

GFS 3

That shows upper 30s in the north and mid 60s in the south. That’s the first storm that moves across the region. I said there would likely be another next weekend and that it would be the one to start the ball rolling on the cold moving in. Check out the wicked swing on the GFS…GFS

That would have 60s and thunder around here Saturday, followed by temps falling into the 30s with the possibility of snow by Sunday evening. Now… I am only showing you those maps to illustrate the change we are talking about. That switch could come at any point next weekend into early the following week.

The setup will be for the cold to ooze in here slowly at first and that may come with several overrunning snow threats when it does.

The real deal arctic air looks to overtake the pattern toward the end of the week of the 15th…

GFS 2I have little doubt that this winter is going to turn harsh around here during the second half of January into February. Exactly when and how it unfolds will be dealt with as we get closer to next weekend and the following week.

I (and others) have thrown around January and February 1985 as a period similar to the one we are heading into. What’s interesting to note is temps hit the 60s in early January that year and then didn’t hit 40 degrees for the next month or so. We will see if the next few months can get close to mirroring that year.

Make it a great Sunday and take care.


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77 Responses to Tracking Some Wild Temp Swings

  1. Marsha says:

    Chris you are amazing that you have put up with these comment as long as you have.sometime I hate getting on here because all the fighting and I really hate the bashing that you get,hope you stop a lot of this,I am sorry don’t mean to be mean just tired of the fighting….

  2. CoalMinerD says:

    Well, I have been a faithful follower of the blog for over four years and now, I cant get a post through to save my life. I have emailed you chris a bunch of times about moderation and got no response.

    • CoalMinerD says:

      Am I believing what I am seeing, I am allowed to post a comment. Some of the more faithful bloggers may remember me as Derek. I changed my name to CoalMinerD just to see if it would make a difference. Wow, very happy to be able to post again.

  3. alena says:

    Chris, I for one really appreciate what you do. Please don’t let the negative comments get to you. Most of us feel the same way I do and I don’t know what we would do without you.

  4. Jenn Runyan says:

    I, along with many others appreciate your blog and love your updates. The pettiness that goes on here is stuff that goes on everywhere else- some people have nothing better to do. I mean really – who does that kind of stuff- are we not adults here? You take time out of your days faithfully to update us and for that we are grateful! I have lived All over the place, and just moved here after 3 years in Germany and I have NEVER seen such a dedicated, funny or knowledgeable weather guy. You are most certainly one of a kind and we are lucky to have you :) so, thank you…thank you for what you do!

  5. H.B. says:

    1985. I remember about 2 feet of snow on Valentine’s Day. Hmmmmmmn…

  6. karen says:

    chris idont see why anyone would bash u. u can only report the weather thats in front of u.i for one read it everyday and would miss it if it wasnt here. thank u for doing this for your readers. keep up the good work and thank you.

  7. Weatherdadof2 says:

    Chris, thanks so much for all you do to keep this an insightful, scientific blog for all of us weather junkies. Have an amazing day!

  8. Leeannie says:

    Yay! Looking forward to some winter weather, FINALLY! And thanks, Chris, for your dedication to this blog. Many of my friends and I are always discussing it at work! As for the nasty comments from people who have an inferiority complex, two words: highlight, delete. ;-)

  9. MarkLex says:

    Calling the NWS

    I have a question about this data. This is your link for the snowfall extremes for Lexington. Regarding the Feb 98 storm – why is it not listed in the “most snowfall in a calendar month block” since it very well did snow at LEAST 17 to 20 inches Feb of 1998. Since there are lower totals in that category, I’m just wondering why that year/month was left out because it we all know what a huge storm that was. It is listed for “calendar day” at only 11 inches which I guess is the “official” 24 hour recorded amount (cough cough), but not for calendar month which just seems off to me.

    http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/?n=lexsnowextremes

  10. Coffeady says:

    Morning Chris and fellow blog followers. Chris, you weren’t kidding when you said wild temp swings! Wow! To go from 30s to possible 60s and back again IS wild. And, yes, I remember the big Vskenyines day snow. The day after, temps rose to about 58 and a lot if it melted. Thanks for all you do, Chris, and for doing it for we weather lovers. You are appreciated so very much. This blog is my lifeline for knowing what is coming and how to dress for work. I start my day reading it. Have. Great Sundsy, everyone, and thanks for all you do Chris.

  11. Chanda says:

    First time posting a comment, but I have been an avid reader of your blog for 3 years and look forward to your posts! I completely understand that you also have a life outside of weather and work, so I am always grateful you do post early in the morning so I can read while I have my coffee. Thanks for all you do!

  12. Cosmokramer says:

    Santa brought two little girls snowboards for Christmas….that’s the good news. They look like Minnie Pearl’s hat however since the price tags are still attached. LOL

    On a scary note, living in Morgan County and hearing high temps and storms in winter has all of us anxious and looking up anytime the wind blows. Morgan County folks will take cold temps in winter any day.

    • MikeM says:

      If Santa brought it your supposed to take the price tags off. :) Funny comment though. Since you mention that I dont think any of the big box stores stock many sleds and snow stuff anymore like they did in the past.

      • BubbaG says:

        Correct. Inventory these days is mainly based on actual customer sales, so if low demand, low or no stock.

        Me thinks sleighs ain’t in too much demand.

    • BubbaG says:

      Take them to Perfect North. They make snow and with the cold air hanging around, it is actually fun. They also have people and places for people learning to ski or snowboard.

  13. Jeff Hamlin says:

    Chris you do what YOU can do, and don’t worry about anyone else! :)

  14. LD says:

    I always have to chuckle at the people who equate the frequency or timing of posts to indicate that Chris is suddenly feeling unsure or lacks faith in a stated prediction or interpretation of data (e.g. “If he really believed this he would have posted by now!”). Yes, it couldn’t be that he’s simply busy, could it? No, no, no we need to be dramatic and act like there are much darker reasons at play. You know who you are.

    Sorry about the Bengals, Chris, as I know you’re a big fan. I think someone in the Texans organization must have secretly kidnapped Andy Dalton and replaced him with Andy from Parks and Recreation.

    Bring on the mid-Jan snow and cold!

  15. Carrie says:

    Chris, I love reading your blog. I have to read it every day!!!! There will always be haters no matter what. Like someone else said, just delete them. They have such a boring life that all they can do is try and make others miserable. Such a shame!!! But anyway a lot of us do enjoy your blog and make it a daily part of our life. You can only predict the weather, not make it! Thanks for all your hard work!!! :)

  16. bgbecky says:

    Testing to see if I am still “awaiting moderation” ;)

  17. weather blog troll says:

    Thanks Chris! We certainly appreciate the most excellent work you do. We know you have a life ( family, work, hobbies etc. ) and look forward to your thoughts whenever you have the time to share them.

    It’s supposed to be FUN and it is!

    Looking forward to the Wild Ride…

  18. April says:

    Chris, I am in southern Ohio and read your blog everyday. Thank you for everything you do!

  19. JJTeach says:

    Good morning all! I’m looking forward to the upcoming pattern ahead. Looks like a fun one to track.

    Chris, thanks so much for all you do for this blog. I absolutely hate that some people get on here and make the most negative comments. I have made this blog my top source of weather information for several years now and I look forward to many more years to come. I honestly don’t know what I would do if I couldn’t bring up kyweathercenter after I got up each morning. It’s always the start of my day.

    Hope everyone has a great week and enjoy this “January thaw” while real winter reloads and unleashes around mid month!!

    • scully says:

      I agree. I check this blog first thing every morning. Don’t know what I’d do without it. I use it to plan my week because Chris always lets us know what’s coming. When I used to use weather.com the temps never reflected the oncoming weather events. Now, with Chris I know if something big is coming in a few days and I can plan accordingly. Thanks, chris for all you do. I don’t know how you keep up with it all.

      • JJTeach says:

        Well said! Chris has always been much more accurate than anything any of those weather websites could forecast.

  20. Sharon says:

    Chris, I for one greatly appreciate all you do! You are only one person and have a life (other than weather) and you do an amazing job with this website. There will always be negative people or people. If someone posts inappropriate comments just delete and block them! Do not let negative “Ned” or “Nellie” ruin it for you and everyone else! Keep up the great work! I start my day by reading as do many of my friends and co-workers. Have a great day!

    • BubbaG says:

      I think CB is irked by people sending him emails more than anything else. People actually email and bug him?

      As far as being negative, THAT is the trend, so still not getting that. Is this an objective weather blog, or a subjective fan club blog? If the latter- you guys have fun!

      As far as anything goes in the posts, very fair point and I am guilty. This is in part due to the negative trend, since the NWS was brought up. Winter weather has been “meh” as far as snow for a long time and we get our averages by many little drive-by snows. So far for the past two winters, not even that.

      Yes, that is negative, but also based on reality. The reality is the emphasis and traffic of this blog has always thrived on snow- specifically big snow.

      BTW, if you all want to see negative posts, go to Bengals blog. Jeepers, I am jaded but some of the posts shock me.

      • JJTeach says:

        I love you BubbaG but sometimes I think you (and others) forget what state this is that we live in). This isn’t Montana, Alaska, or Maine. It’s Kentucky. That’s the fun of tracking winter weather around here…we get excited about “meh” snows. And we get real excited when the rare “big one” hits. That’s the fun of tracking winter weather in a “borderline” state as far as winter weather goes.

        • BubbaG says:

          In general true, but we did average three big snows each decade up until the 00′s. Just drive by snows since then, save for a few clippers.

          Sniff….. even the clippers have become a fleeting memory. Tito, throw me a tissue!

          • 3789N8434W says:

            Well, I was raised on the winters of Wisconsin, went to undergrad at U of Montana and lived there for a bit and when I came to KY in 1974 there was WINTER here…wonderful snow, lots of cold and outdoor fun and I agree with BubbaG…that is a think of the past and now savored memories. Too bad but snows like that are rare for whatever reasons. Maybe we could arrange for a supervolcano to go active to cool the atmosphere or we can just keep looking for that elusive BIG one…….

  21. rolo says:

    it look to be as predicted as far as Bailey winter weather outlook, right on Cue mid Jan thru Feb was Bailey outlook as far as REAL WINTER weather.

  22. rolo says:

    Sharon great post, as thats indeed the feeling I got with this update, that was BAILEY is not having fun and is upset.

    as far as the BLOG goes, I dont mind as a LOOOONG TIME reader/poster for rednecking etc. u have to be able to handle the good and bad as far as this biz goes. I mean when ur right ur right and when u wrong ur wrong so take it and move on.

    as far as Bailey goes dont know why there be any attacking of late, he been spot on as far as his outlook goes. I think what hapen is some have got out of hand as CHRIS was saying WIMPY,WIMPY Warm up as far as this next week goes. while other WX people giving mid 50s higher. that has got some riled up,

    its sad indeed when there griping over missing TEMPS by few degrees. CMON people.

  23. Tabby says:

    Sounds to me liked you’ve hit stardom! Real celebrities are the ones who get fan mail (positive AND negative) and the ones who get obsessed about. Before you know it, you may see the paparazzi following you on vacation!!!

  24. Robin Howard says:

    You do a wonderful job Chris and I don’t know why anyone would make any negative comments. I am thankful you take the time to give us these forecast. Love reading them. And just to throw this in, I love how you end each forecast with take care.

  25. Dawnp007 says:

    Glad to see you pulling the reigns on some middle school drama. I was calling out to you last night, lol. Appreciate your generosity of time to keep us informed.

  26. Ready4Snow says:

    The pattern is reloading and once again all players are moving on the field (unlike Bengals) around mid month…Anything coming from the west and along the gulf will blow up into a glob of moisture making fun times as it moves north in our neck of the woods…If you still have christmas lights up now is the time to remove them…This week will be your only shot…Wicked times is around the corner…

  27. HEB says:

    Still say all I hear is Next week or in a couple weeks.
    It’s getting old really quick i’m ready for warm weather.

  28. chrisb says:

    Anyone seen GFS for next Sunday? Thats a lot of ICE and FREEZING RAIN, potential is there for CRIPPLING ICE STORM

    • BubbaG says:

      Ice has been in our 15 year trend where big snow has not, so if an outlook model average suggests it, probably not something to take lightly.

    • Danny says:

      Yes I saw it but we all know that the GFS will change 10,000 times between now and Sunday. No doubt the bitter cold is coming and I have no doubt that this upcoming cold spell is going to link up with moisture and create havic. Off the subject traveled up to Indianapolis this morning you go 40 miles north of Louisville on I-65 still a solid 4-6 inch snowpack closer to 6 in the Indianapolis metro.

  29. MikeM says:

    43 degrees in Versailles. Ready for spring.

  30. Friend says:

    Chris,

    Thank you for your time and efforts – they are much appreciated, especially during these winter months by those of us who travel extensively within the state.

    I ran a similar site in my chosen field. I had to disable ther comment section and change my email address. No more.

    All the best and thanks again for the good work.

  31. Snowlover says:

    Chris,

    I love your blog and GREATLY appreciate the time you dedicate to this – and your “free” time at that. I’m a teacher and love to see if snow is in the forecast. If you’re wrong, am I disappointed? Of course. Do I blame you? Absolutely not!

    If readers don’t like what you say or that your weather PREDICTIONS (not guarantees) don’t always pan out, then let them spend their time reading different weather forecasts. Perhaps they should check out NWS…maybe they’d be more satisfied with their information. ;)

    Bottom line – it’s your weather blog. Keep doing what you do for those of us that love it and don’t be bothered with the whiners. I’m pretty sure you’re not forcing anyone to log on and read!

    Now keep talking snow, my friend, keep talking SNOW!!!! :)

  32. William says:

    It’s called predicting or forcasting, not future telling. Keep up the good work.

  33. vinny says:

    Whether there’s weather, or whether there’s not
    I’ll always come here to see what’s what…
    The cold will come and the cold will go
    But while the cold is here, I sure wish it would snow… :)

    GO CATS..!

  34. Todd says:

    Sounds like Chris is tired of the negative comments, I’m guilty of that but it’s usually about the lack of snow, I’ll try to be more civil when it comes to comments, like my mom always says, if you don’t have something good to say don’t say anything ;)

  35. sue(Flatwoods,KY) says:

    44 deg, cloudy and very windy! Still have a few patches of snow around in my yard! : ) But I am really hoping for a good snow after this short warm up!

  36. Bethany says:

    I think everyone needs to realize that Mr. Bailey has a life outside of the weather. A lot of other stations have a “blog” but are updated rarely. I myself don’t know that I would find the time to update as often and be so giving of my own time to make other people happy. Mr. Bailey is amazing to give so much of his free time to update people on the weather when he could be spending time with his wife and family. I am very grateful to him for giving us a large amount of his time to honestly let us know what he thinks will happen with the weather! Is he 100% accurate 100% of the time? No, but God wasn’t perfect either. Not many people would put themselves out on a limb and go in an opposite direction as what other weather people are saying. That’s what I like most about him. Mr. Bailey isn’t afraid to say what he thinks.

    I’m very appreciative to him and his family for “donating” his time to keeping everyone up to date on the weather. What ever happened to “if you can’t say anything nice, don’t say anything at all”? I think the Internet has allowed many to forget their manners!

  37. bjenks says:

    CB you are the best in the biz….Thanks for all you do.

    I still say this next cold blast will take us back to the 70′s and not the 80′s. Not much in the way of snow during the 85 cold snap. 77/78 brought us cold (frigid at that), a blizzard and weekly snows that hung around for most of Feb. If everything plays out the way the indicies are pointing we will be in for a really wild ride the back end of winter.

  38. Snowcat says:

    84-85 was my 1978 winter. That is the year that we went back right after Christmas break for a day or two then proceeded to miss 39 straight school days before going back to school again in March. Had to go on Saturdays and everything to make up school that year.

  39. WXman says:

    I for one am happy that the modeling is indicating temps. in the 60s by the end of the week. It’s nice to have a break from the cold weather from time to time during winter. I might even put shorts on when I’m home from work. ;)

  40. Todd says:

    Temp dropping in Frankfort, down to 35 with a biting wind chill!

  41. Jamie says:

    As a Reds and Bengals fan myself, I understand the frustration. 1) Reds flamed out in the playoffs, 2) Bengals flamed out in the playoffs, 3) Winter weather in KY, frankly, stinks.

    On the weather note, I personally don’t care whether there’s snow or not. Never have – personally, I prefer warm weather. But I don’t like the endless, useless gray of winter around here. If there’s gotta be clouds, then by all means please rain, snow, sleet, or spit cats for all I care, but DO something. The endless cloud bank is what really bums everyone out.

    • Todd says:

      Agree with ya on that, If we had as many snow days as grey ugly depressing days the snow would be measured in feet!

  42. Joey Wilson says:

    Thanks, Chris, for all your work. Like others have said, this is my “go to!” place for weather. I drive into southwestern Indiana for work and was very envious last week of their big snow piles. We only had 2″ total last week here in Owensboro. I’m very hopeful that these upcoming cold/snowy predictions come TRUE!

  43. chrisb says:

    Highs in the Teens Looking more likely Jan 15th-20th! High snow ratios of 20:1 with any moisture!

    • Braden says:

      Whats going on , i heard about all the bad comments and stuff. Did someone do something to chris, or is he just mad over the bengals game ?

  44. MrsH says:

    The idea of snow makes me giddy. So far, where I live, we have just missed about every “snow” that has come through. Maybe this time the kiddos will get the chance to build a snowman or two and have some snow cream! And, Chris, you are doing awesome! Thank you for all you do. Regardless, there will always be those that feel the need to be negative towards you. Let it roll off, my friend!

  45. norman ferguson says:

    i agree on the comments…this is a weather page for pleasure..he does not even have to do this for us and some people need to take a chill pill on if hes a day or few hours late on posting something for our weather..the man has a life of his own and people wanna put down his weather predictions or critize him…im thankful for him doing this for us not very many other meterologist does this so be happy he does this in his own time and thank the man…

  46. Shelley says:

    you have a life outside of weather?! *GASP* ;) thank you for your blog. I read it every day… or more depending on how much life you have going on.

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