Good Sunday, everyone. We are rolling toward some major temp swings over the next week and all that is leading us into a period of harsh winter weather for much of the country. That won’t fully kick in into the second half of the month, but that doesn’t mean we won’t have a lot of stuff to track in the week ahead.
Before I get into it all… let me be clear about a few things. I am not always in a position to update the blog and I do have a life outside of weather. This is done on my own free time, so chill out with the emails. I also am going to have to patrol the comments section a little more. This isn’t one of your local message boards where anything goes.
In terms of the weather… we have a weak system crossing the Ohio Valley today and this will produce a few snow showers and flurries. A rain shower or two will also be possible… especially in the south. Cold air will sweep in overnight and readings by daybreak may hit the upper teens in some areas. That sets us up for a sunny and cold Monday with highs in the 30s.
This is where the wild temp swings come into play. The big storm system rolling in from the southwest looks slower and slower. That means Tuesday into Wednesday may feature a little more in the way of dry weather. This also sets us up for a heck of a temp gradient from north to south across the region. As the low finally works in by Thursday afternoon… check out the temps on the GFS…
That shows upper 30s in the north and mid 60s in the south. That’s the first storm that moves across the region. I said there would likely be another next weekend and that it would be the one to start the ball rolling on the cold moving in. Check out the wicked swing on the GFS…
That would have 60s and thunder around here Saturday, followed by temps falling into the 30s with the possibility of snow by Sunday evening. Now… I am only showing you those maps to illustrate the change we are talking about. That switch could come at any point next weekend into early the following week.
The setup will be for the cold to ooze in here slowly at first and that may come with several overrunning snow threats when it does.
The real deal arctic air looks to overtake the pattern toward the end of the week of the 15th…
I have little doubt that this winter is going to turn harsh around here during the second half of January into February. Exactly when and how it unfolds will be dealt with as we get closer to next weekend and the following week.
I (and others) have thrown around January and February 1985 as a period similar to the one we are heading into. What’s interesting to note is temps hit the 60s in early January that year and then didn’t hit 40 degrees for the next month or so. We will see if the next few months can get close to mirroring that year.
Make it a great Sunday and take care.