A Supercharged Pattern

Good Tuesday everyone and thanks for making KWC your home for all things Kentucky weather. I haven’t been updating as much as normal lately because I wanted to rest up for what we have ahead of us… A supercharged pattern that will take a walk on the wild side.

The weather looks pretty calm and quiet over the next few days. Temps today will warm well into the upper 40s to near 50 and into the 50s Wednesday. We will see a little more cloud cover Wednesday and I can’t rule out a stray shower as some cooler air works toward the region from the north.

A strong storm will roll northward along the Mississippi River Valley Wednesday night through Friday. This will bring a surge of mild air into the state on Thursday. The afternoon temp forecast from the GFS continues to show 30s in the far north and mid 60s in the south…

GFS

The mild air will win the battle and push northward through the rest of the day and into Thursday night. Showers and thunderstorms will become common across the state during this time and that carries us into the first half of Friday.

Even milder air moves in later Friday and Saturday and this will send thermometers soaring. Record highs are a possibility across the board. We could see a 70 with enough sunshine.

This is when we start getting in on a pattern that can produce a lot of rain around here. A big trough digs in across the middle of the country and combines with a southeastern ridge to funnel moisture from southwest to northeast into our region.

A cold front moves into the state early Sunday and puts the brakes on. We may see a 24-36 hour period with a 30 degree temp spread from west to east across the state. Waves of low pressure then develop and move along this boundary. Exactly where that front sets up will be crucial in determining how much rain falls around here. The GFS has been emphatic in showing a lot of heavy rain. Check out the numbers from Thursday through Monday…

GFS 5

That’s a setup we don’t want any part of as it could create high water issues across much of the region if it comes to pass.

Again.. that all depends on where the front checks up and how quickly the cold air moves in here. Does that front finally clear the state by Monday? Here’s hoping that’s the case, but not for the wintry reasons.

Whenever the boundary works to our east… additional waves of low pressure will roll along it and the GFS Ensembles show this for the middle and end of next week…

GFS 2I will update later today. Have a great Tuesday and take care.


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35 Responses to A Supercharged Pattern

  1. Meme says:

    I am not a fan of mud and torrential rainfall, and definitely not of flooding. Wish this would all fall as snow! It would be one for the record books!

  2. Festus says:

    Sorry for my misunderstanding here, but is that map showing better than 5 inches of rain for parts of Kentucky? :-(

    • Teacher Nate says:

      Yes…but within a 5 day period….Thurs-Monday.

    • prelude says:

      That particular map that CB posted does show 5+ inches of rain that is the GFS map, however not all models are pointing to that much rain. The GFS model seems to think the front will stall around the Kentucky region therefore will bring waves of rains to the area basically a training affect. The other models are more progressive with the front so not as much rain either its going to be a good soaker for all of us. I say at the very least 2 inches and on the high side maybe 4 to 5. If the rain was to all fall at one time then flooding might be a concern but since its coming over a 4 to 5 day period we should be alright.

  3. prelude says:

    I meant to say either way its going to be a good soaker

  4. Bernard P. Fife says:

    Wonderful Ky winter weather….5 inches of rain for the middle of January LOL. It’s better than ice.

  5. Mike says:

    Looking forward to the next few weeks. We need a good shot of real cold (single digits type cold for a week where the ground freezes several inches) to kill of a lot of the creepy crawlies living underground. Mild winters = lots of “bugs” in the summer.

  6. Coffeelady says:

    Well it looks like we will be seeing a lot of wet weather in the short term, for sure. Hopefully, it will tanslate into cold temps and some white stuff for us all over the next few weeks. Guess we will see…
    Thanks, Chris, and have a great Tuesday, everyone.

  7. JPeezy says:

    I’ll take the rain in order to keep this warm weather going. Spring fever ya’ll!

  8. MikeM says:

    If only the cold and moisture would show up at the same time.

    • BubbaG says:

      Really?! You speak of black magic! Such things do not exist in the our world. Be careful, since you will be accused of being a witch. ;)

  9. bjenks says:

    Thanks ChrisB for the update……
    Looking at past data here are some interesting numbers for the winter of 1978 and 1985
    Weather WK1 WK2 WK3 WK4 WK5
    Min Temp

    • bjenks says:

      Sorry about that….Here they are…If I had to choose it would be 1978…Had 16 inches of snow on the 17th. Two more on the 19th and Blizzard Conditions on the 25th-26th. Snow on ground through Feb.

      1985 WK1 WK2 WK3 WK4 WK5 Month
      Min 30.43 22.54 5.20 11.89 24.33 18.88
      Max 40.27 34.84 27.73 32.77 37.33 34.59
      Precip. 0.15 0.02 0.04 0.00 0.26 0.10
      Snow 0.00 0.23 0.69 1.31 0.27 0.50

      1978 WK1 WK2 WK3 WK4 WK5 Month
      Min 24.84 9.69 17.34 10.73 7.30 13.98
      Max 42.31 27.14 27.73 33.84 21.63 30.53
      Precip. 0.04 0.32 0.30 0.22 0.01 0.18
      Snow 0.87 1.26 12.94 9.60 9.57 6.85

      • 3789N8436W says:

        Ahhhhh, I remember it well! First years of teaching in KY and that was before we had to make up lost time minute-for-minute….I’m on for a blast from the past!

  10. Todd says:

    Overcast temp is 50 in Frankfort, might make it to 55 if the sun comes back out, I have to admit this is a nice break, weather channel is now calling for 72 here Saturday!

  11. Jason says:

    Some of us may hit 75 this weekend.. Holy Cow!

  12. heb says:

    I just keep saying warm weather.no snow no snow

    Think we’ll be safe as long as C.B. keeps saying next week we’ll be in the warm weather for good.

  13. misty says:

    Chris said he wants to rest up for what is ahead! That should perk our ears

    • BubbaG says:

      Or he is referring to the usual gnashing of teeth on the blog ;)

      Case in point, mega precipitation when it is warm, but will it come around when cold? It has not for years, so tis’a buster we need. :)

  14. heb says:

    misty I’ll believe it when I see it.
    the forecast has fizzled out all year for Eastern Ky

  15. Bengalfan says:

    My guess.,,looks great for next week ,but will be 28 to 45 light rais, backend snow,,that is the trend,,,please do another trend something old Sokol,,,,,,

  16. Todd says:

    Next week looks like a mystery to me, NWS is saying just normal cold coming in Monday for a few days then some moderation??

  17. WXman says:

    Low 70s Saturday? And that’s a “wimpy” warmup? What is looking wimpy is our arctic outbreak coming up. If we go lower than the teens it’ll be lucky, and GFS shows a quick moderation after the 19th. The indices are dictating this somewhat boring weather and it will probably stay this way for a little while longer.

    • BubbaG says:

      At this rate, a little while longer is spring. You know, I’m experiencing deja vu with this winter. I seem to remember similar discussions then as well

    • weather blog troll says:

      Interesting! Is that on your blog?

    • Chris Bailey says:

      I’m not sure when you became someone to continue to post negative comments about me. Whatever floats your boat, I guess. Boring weather? Are you kidding me??

      • Andy Rose says:

        Seems always oposite outlooks as Chris for whatever reason but i haven’t seen anything personal though maybe i missed something.

        • MikeM says:

          Its personal (disrespectful) when the only time he posts is to oppose chris. I’m thinking his blog name wxman is lile little man syndrome.

      • WXman says:

        I have never insulted you. And yes, a string of sunny days and warm weather on the horizon in January is “boring” wouldn’t you say? Since when did posting my point of view and backing it up with stats become “negative”? That’s what I’d like to know.

  18. Connor says:

    Insomnia last night led me to listen to overnight AM radio (louisville) for that silly but entertaining Coast to Coast conspiracy, end o’ the world scenario stuff. I know they touched on extreme weather and they spoke of later this month major portions of North America to be experiencing MAJOR freezing temperatures of a potentially catastrophic ‘nature’ (pun intended). Anyone else hear that last night???

  19. Snowluv says:

    Just spent 10 minutes posting on my iPhone and it didn’t work

    Just great

  20. Tom N Lincoln says:

    We get our hopes up only to get them dashed. Its been that way for 2 straight years now. I’m beginning to wonder if I’m gonna get any measurable snow at all at my place this year. Maybe we’ll get lucky and get a clipper system or 2 in Feb. That’s about the only hope I see.

  21. weather blog troll says:

    Thanks Chris. Should be some fun weather watching!

    Think SNOW- especially for the snow deprived south of the river folks!

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