Tuesday Evening Update

Good evening, gang. All eyes continue to be focused on the hyper active weather pattern ahead of us. Temps are going to soar this week and may flirt with records by Friday into Saturday. The rounds of showers and thunderstorms will become more common and the rain numbers will really add up though early next week.

The numbers from the GFS continue to look impressive…

GFS Rain

This setup could eventually lead to some high water issues early next week. That’s when the cold air finally blasts in from the west. This will sweep in a significant period of winter weather that will grow more harsh as we go through the rest of the month into February. Just because I’m not making that the focus of the posts doesn’t mean my thoughts have changed. I have to pay much more attention to the heavy rain threat than the winter threat, right now.

Enjoy your evening and take care.


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50 Responses to Tuesday Evening Update

  1. weather blog troll says:

    And there you have it. Let’s hang on for some fun.

  2. Ben C says:

    I hope it snows to the barn top and we get snowed in for days. As long as we all keep our electric on of course. Thanks a bunch CB.

  3. WXman says:

    The weekend of the 19th looks like the coldest period at the moment. Possibly into the 15-20 range for lows. We’ve already been to 18 so far this season so this wouldn’t be a first.

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/18/gfs_namer_252_10m_wnd_precip.gif

    I think Chris is right though, all eyes should be on the flood threat this weekend. He is in a position to warn a lot of people to be ready. Hopefully this won’t turn into another May 2010.

    • MikeM says:

      I can’t believe your still posting.

      • BubbaG says:

        Seems wx has not read the reply. None the less, I did not see any insulting directed at CB. Other Mets are suggesting a cold drop too, so perhaps more a general statement, IF it gets even warmer.

        If anything is insulting, it is the warm air giving us cold rain or ice, instead of big snow. Now THAT is insulting. We get enough warm air in the spring and summer :)

        • WXman says:

          What reply? And no, of course there is nothing insulting toward Chris. Why is it that people still think I’m insulting Chris? I posted my thoughts, backed it up with a link, and that’s it. Isn’t that what everybody does here?

      • WXman says:

        Can you elaborate please? At least I had something to say. Your comment has the value of a piece of used chewing gum.

        • disappointed says:

          Never heard that statement before. lol I’m going to have to put that in my bank of comments for future use.

    • weather blog troll says:

      wow…
      just, well….. wow

      • WXman says:

        Ahhh.. OK I get it. Rather than readers posting their thoughts based upon what the teleconnections and modeling is suggesting, we should just blindly follow what our fellow meteorologists say. Otherwise we’re being “negative”. Sorry, I didn’t realize that. I thought a weather community shared ideas. And to answer your question from earlier…yes my thoughts about the indices and our boring weather are posted. Maybe I should do what MJ did and just stop giving helpful insight.

        • MikeM says:

          Your comments are neither helpful or insightful.

          • Pierce says:

            For your information, WXman has a degree in meteorology, and is one of the best forecasters I know. He may not be a meteorologist by profession, but his intelligence in the field is vast, and accurate. Just because he posted his meteorological opinions on an OPEN weather blog doesn’t mean he’s insulting Chris. Have respect for the people who intend to add to the conversation, but end up being attacked.

            • WXman says:

              Thanks Pierce. Nobody appreciates honesty and straightforwardness anymore. I’ve been doing this in KY for a long time now. Just give my insight and nothing more. But haters are gonna hate.

              • Pierce says:

                Let the haters hate!

              • MikeM says:

                The majority of your posts or insight as you put it are a direct contradiction to what Chris is saying. If maybe you posted a time or two where you agreed with Chris, if you ever have, and why then maybe you wouldn’t get some of the responses you do.

              • MikeM says:

                The majority of your posts or insight as you put it are a direct contradiction to what Chris is saying. If maybe you posted a time or two where you agreed with Chris, if you ever have, and why then maybe you wouldn’t get some of the responses you do.

                • Emerson Biggins says:

                  I for one love reading posts from WXMAN he has a degree. He knows more than almost anybody on here and I for one am glad he puts his two cents in. He has more thought and insight than almost all the other post. There are always two sides to a story and he puts it out there. KEEP POSTING AND DISREGARD THE PEOPLE WHO DON’T LIKE IT. STAY POSITIVE AND THINK SNOW

            • Andy Rose says:

              For your information Chris took offense to it thats all that matters.

          • Emerson Biggins says:

            Then don’t read them. THINK SNOW STAY POSITIVE

        • weather blog troll says:

          There is helpful and educational insight and then there is rude constant contradiction to the host bloggers work.
          You make your own choices.

        • BubbaG says:

          Well WX, if you read your post in the previous thread, it could very easily be taken as antagonistic.

          I think perhaps the reason MJ does not post as much is because the weather has not exactly been the bees knees as far as winter is concerned. Perhaps his approach is if there is nothing much good to say, don’t post at all.

          It is fair to say the warm air has been a big player this winter just like last, but we have next week to see if the evil trends continue. Next week….. Have we been here before?? ;) :)

      • BubbaG says:

        That sounds like a cheesy British group. They have a lot of them.

        • weather blog troll says:

          oh…yeah….ok

          I see what you mean.

          • Bernard P. Fife says:

            WX please keep posting your insight. I’m not knocking anybody & I appreciat what Chris does with the site, but I feel like your views have really panned out well this winter. Especially in my neck of the woods. I’ve been a lurker here for 4 years & just started posting a few months ago & I feel everyone is entitled to share their interpretations of the data they’re seeing. Sometimes it lines up with Chris’ Sometimes it doesn’t…but I like all different views!
            So there ya go..that & $3.26 will buy you a gallon of gas in Monticello!

        • Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

          Was that a name or title of a Moody Blues album?

  4. Chris Mercer says:

    I don’t doubt the cold is on the way, but in the meanwhile I’m still tracking the winter temps this year vs. last. Here are the 10 warmest meterological winters for Lexington.
    46.5 1890
    43.8 1932
    40.9 1876
    40.6 1950
    39.9 1949
    39.3 2012
    39.1 1953
    38.8 2002, 1992
    38.7 1937

    Last year, as you can see, finished at 39.3 or the warmest since 1950!

    Through today (Jan 8) our average is 39.9, or HIGHER than last year.

    If you factor in the official temps forecast for the next seven days, the average will be 42.3 as of Tuesday, January 15th, or the half-way point.

    If is going to take a real outbreak of arctic air to even get the temps for this winter to “normal.” The normal temp for winter is 35.2.

    For us to even reach normal, from Jan 16-Feb 28 the temp will have to average 27.8. Not impossible, but it would mean a very cold stretch of weather in late January and most if not all of February.

  5. Caroline in Central West Virginia says:

    Well, we still have several inches of snow on the ground despite a high temp of 47 F today. Not complaining… with sun and blue skies, it’s mighty pretty out there in the Lakes and Mountains! Watching Chris’s posts closely over the next week or two though.. not sure about looking forward to those extremes he keeps talking about! However, I am hearing plenty of mumbling across the weather blog-o-sphere about collapsing Polar Vortexes and Arctic outbreaks.. I suspect that Chris has his own ideas on the pattern of events over the coming weeks and I look forward to hearing them.. after all, he’s usually right!

  6. Mom of Young Drivers says:

    I hope I don’t get chewed out over posting my desires, however, as my name suggests, I have young drivers who work part and fulltime jobs and I would just prefer that the warm weather continues all the way through April and then warm up even more. In the old days of snow days from school and hot chocolate and my babies buidling snowmen, sure bring it on. Now I worry because we don’t get alot of slick winter weather that no one including my children knows how to drive on the stuff and it’s dangerous. I do read the blog and enjoy it a lot during the summer but it’s too nerve wracking in the winter. =)

  7. Cosmokramer says:

    Was I asleep? Am I Rip Van Winkle? Rain, soaring temps, possibly 70*?
    Did I sleep through winter……again?

    Snow….the other white precipitation….last decent white precipitation for my neck of the woods was hail.

  8. Chris Mercer says:

    Seems like the warmest back to back winters since 1949 & 1950 have made the comment section a little “edgy.” If this winter ends up in the Top 10 warmest, then vent away! Give it some more time first!

  9. Virgil Edwards says:

    Chris, you are just going to have to require registration in order for people to comment on YOUR SITE.. Yes I capitalized that because I think people have forgotten that this is YOUR site for your elaboration on the weather…Not Topix where people just comment how they like.

    • BubbaG says:

      My guess is that would hurt rather than help traffic and turn it more more into a fan club site. What this blog needs is an actual big snow to smack most of the state :) “All” is probably too bold. I can not escape reality :(

  10. Todd says:

    I’m taking this upcoming rain with a smile, after last summers drought we need all the moisture we can get ( yes I wish it was snow) some of the longer range outlooks already suggesting a another dry hot summer, SURPRIZE right!

  11. Sharon says:

    Thanks for all you do Chris, we miss you in Ashland Ky. Thanks for this blog and keeping us updated on the weather. Keep up the great work!

  12. Danny says:

    There is a legit chance that on Friday night we might not drop below 60 for a low temp. Im sure am glad that on Saturday there isnt a huge temp contrast or else we would all be in line for a major severe weather outbreak. Luckily the real cold air will be lagging behind the front.

  13. Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

    Speaking for myself if there is not going to be any snowfall it can stay warm.

  14. bjenks says:

    Can’t we all just get along!!!!! THINK SNOW!!!

  15. TONEY says:

    chris, keep up the good work….currently at 10:15pm eastern the temp is a cold and somewhat frosty along with a clear sky with a temp of 33 degrees and i am reporting from the town of wayne, wva…….16 miles south of huntington, wva.

  16. Bobt says:

    Here is my take on the WX situation. I visit the blog numerous times per day because people like wx can read the updated maps and give us an up to the minute forecast. I’m curious of what the latest GFS or Nam says and am glad that someone can interpret the maps and post a comment on this site. Chris on average posts one time per day. If no one on here is allowed to give their opinion on what the weather may do, then I will only check it one time per day. No reason to check comments just for cheer leading. I now check the board about 6-10 times per day to look at the updated comments. If I’m just coming to the board to read “atta boy” comments, then I’m only going to get on here one time a day. I think Chris is great and respect his opinion, but the reason I hit this site numerous times is to read posts from people like wx for up to the minute info.

    • Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

      As long as people are not calling others that they disagree with names or making it personal, I am totally down with hearing all opinions. An extended model is subjective, I do not think anybody can you give you a guarantee on how cold it is going to be next week. All I know is that when in doubt bet on pure liquid versus Fz. water. I will when that forecast 80% of the time.

    • snow princess says:

      I’m with you. I enjoy WX insight as well. I also enjoy Rolo’s flip flopping, :P ….it’s a combination of ideas and opinions, some backed up with expertise that makes this the enjoyable blog it is.

  17. SSGARMSTRONG says:

    WTF folks…. Please don’t turn this into some high school drama. I enjoy reading this each day several times. My job deals directly with the weather. I plan my days depending on what is put out on this site. I love it, but please act like grown adults on here. I for one can tell you that there is way more to be bent out of shape in the world than what someone posts in the comment section… Please have some respect for the person that hosts this site. He works very hard and it shows. Everyone is entitled to their opinion, but respect each other as well…

  18. snow princess says:

    I’m afraid the drama will result in CB shutting down the blog. I enjoy the blog very much, I am on here everyday and enjoy the insight and opinions of everyone who posts. It’s a weather blog and I personally don’t think anyone should take offense to what opinions are posted here as no ones forcast will be set in stone, it’s weather, it will change. Please act respectfully so this site isn’t removed.

  19. dawnp007 says:

    Dorothy and the Scarecrow in the wizard of Oz……….

    “How can you talk if you haven’t got a brain?”

    “I don’t know. But some people without brains do an awful lot of talking!”

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