Mild Leads To Wild

Good Wednesday everyone. The next week and change of weather could end up being one of the wilder patterns we’ve had around here in a while. There is so much to focus on that I’m having a hard time what to talk about and in what order. Yes, there is THAT much going on.

Clouds will continue to increase today and we could even see a stray shower or two. Temps will be back in the 50s ahead of a storm system moving in for Thursday and Friday. That system will bring an increase in showers and thunderstorms our way during this time and locally heavy rain will be likely for some. Temps will rise from south to north on Thursday and reach 60 in some areas. Friday’s round of 60s is now in jeopardy because of a little more widespread rainfall.

Saturday looks like the warmest day with highs well into the 60s as clouds and moisture move back in. Showers and thunderstorms will become likely Saturday night and Sunday and heavy rainfall will again be possible.

A stalled out front will be draped across the region and this allows for numerous areas of low pressure to work from southwest to northeast. Each of those will bring a ton of rain to the bluegrass and surrounding states. Check out the new GFS numbers through Monday night…

GFS

Here’s what it looks like if you expand that out through next Wednesday…

GFS 2

Now, if those numbers are right, then flooding will be a real concern across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys late this weekend into next week.

We have to watch and see exactly where the front stalls out. The GFS is bringing colder air in a little quicker than some of its previous runs and even develops this storm by the middle of next week…

GFS 3

That would bring a pretty good swath of accumulating snow in here. Again.. you simply can’t put stock in each and every run of the GFS or any model. Forecast the pattern and the details will be ironed out later.

The GFS Ensembles have always been rather gung-ho on the cold and snow threat by the middle and end of next week. The latest run was even more enthusiastic…

GFS 4The Canadian Model is going the route of the GFS Ensembles with the colder scenario. The model even brings -20c 850mb temps in here by next weekend.

Here’s the moral of the story. We better hope the colder models end up being correct because the setup is prime for a major, prolonged rain event that could lead to a decent flood event.

I will update later today. Make it a great one and take care.


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78 Responses to Mild Leads To Wild

  1. james says:

    Thanks Chris! Appreciate your hard work! Sounds like you have your work cut out for you for a while. I hope that cold air gets in here soon next week and cuts down on the rain totals and ups our snow chances. That set up is getting close to an old school snow storm.

  2. Cosmokramer says:

    S-Noah’s Ark anyone?

  3. WXman says:

    Has anybody seen the new AO and NAO outlooks? Snow lovers would be excited for that later this month.

    • Andy_Rose says:

      I guess there was something to what Chris has been saying for the last week ;)

    • Bobby A says:

      Isn’t that what Chris has been saying for a while now? Not being mean I’m just thinking that Chris is ahead of the game.

    • Matthew says:

      WXman, just read your site today. I respect your thoughts as well. So, do you expect the average temperatures throughout January or are these AO and NAO outlooks good for mid-January ish? More snow chance?

      • WXman says:

        I haven’t seen anybody else predict this boring January. Precip is below avg, snowfall is zero, and temps are normal. Boring. It’s what you’d expect with the indices running positive. What I’m saying today is the end of this month could be more active if the indices go negative and the large-scale pattern changes. Time will tell. Personally I think we stay somewhat close to average.

        • vickie says:

          WXman,
          i read your site, while i beleive everyone is entitled to their views, i am not sure that you should have said what you said about others and then post on the blog. We are adults and no one coerces us into believing anything we dont want to. You almost made it sound criminal. Shame on you.

        • Tyler says:

          I would agree! that was a little rude……but it’s your blog write whatever you want! Also I don’t feel like Chris is in it for the business game!

        • Tyler says:

          After further review, I’ve never seen somewhere disrespect someone the way you have!! once again shame on you! oh by the way chris isn’t the only one forecasting a cold blast!!

        • Chris Mercer says:

          Thus far it has been a mundane weather pattern. At least as far back as December 30th. And given the relatively dry ground, flash flood guidance is probably fairly high over most of Kentucky. But, in all fairness, I don’t consider a possibility of 70, several inches of rain and thunderstorms in January and then some possible snow/cold outbreaks later in the month boring going forward.

          • Chris Mercer says:

            But, as with anything, time will tell. I for one don’t mind the mild winter weather. If it isn’t going to snow, might as well be mild. Saves on utility costs.

        • Andy Rose says:

          As much as it pained me i looked at his website i went there to see what all the fuss is about. All i can say is it is his blog and he can attack defend or whatever whomever he wants it is his blog however he does not need to come on here and contiunally contridict Mr Bailey he has a web blog and can post his thoughts on it where people can get his opinion if they want it.

    • London2013 says:

      I am confused, you weather blog just said we were being led along. But, then you turn around and say that snow lovers would love the indices that are showing up. I would call that a contridiction. So there is either no signs or patterns for potential snow or there is, in the near future. I still stick with Chris.

    • Marsha says:

      Wxman I read your blog as soon as you update but after today I will not be back on there I don’t have a clue what you meant by what you said I hope maybe it was not at Chris but that was not good you have been here on Chris blog a long time and chis does this for us all now I know he gets a lot of comments that make us all mad from time to time but no matter what people thing this is his blog you have your own blog so put your weather thoughts on it and if the people choose to read great but I for one will stick with Chris he knows his stuff…

    • Lisa in Donkey Holler says:

      Don’t you have readers on your own blog to ask?

    • Sam says:

      I do not comment often but I do read this blog several times a day and I must say that in the past I respected what Wxman had to contribute. However, I must say after the past few days of reading his posts and today his blog, I have lost ALL respect!! I’m sure that you do not care how I feel about you or your comments but I felt the need to voice my feelings about them. You are free to post whatever you like on your blog however it was very rude and if you feel that way you really should keep your comments off Chris’s blog.If you feel that way about his thoughts and his posts don’t read them. One final note I admit I am guilty of letting curiousity get the best of me and going to Wxman’s blog to see what the fuss was about but I would suggest that anyone else who is curious ask someone and not give him ANYMORE traffic on his site!!!

  4. BengalFan says:

    TREND! From the Past = Rain(lots of it, then some flurries then will get down to about 24, three days later back into the upper 30,s and low 40′s!

    BUT WEATHER, PLEASE do something different!

  5. bjenks says:

    Thanks Chirs for the update!!!
    Also,
    People Chris runs “KENTUCKY WEATHER CENTER” website, free of charge, he allows anyone that is interested in the WEATHER to comment on his thoughts. I have visited at least twice a day for the past three and a quater winters, more sparingly during the spring/summer. Over the past couple of weeks some of the comments have been boarder line ridiculous. If you don’t like what someone has posted then quit reading their comments. Everyone is entitled to have their opinion about the WEATHER so please respect that fact.
    Hope I did not offend anyone! Ha! Ha!
    Now if anyone cares here is my opionon!

    77/78!!!! I wish the first half of January could have been like 77/78. If so all this rain would be snow and it WOULD be to the tops of the barns(as someone said yesterday). IF the cold air moves east quickly and this front stalls out a little futher to the east…Say East of the apps. then every low would dump a decent snow on us. As Bubba and Rolo both say, we are so overdue for a trend buster old skool thumping and I think our chances are better this winter than they have been in recent pasts as the indicies are all heading into a pattern ripe for a cold and snowy east coast……Lets hope they keep heading in the right direction. Sorry for the long comment.
    THINK SNOW!!

  6. Andy Rose says:

    The thing people are overlooking it was Chris who felt slighted by WXmans comments. Others just joined in once Chris posted that and stated thier opinion.

  7. rolo says:

    OLD SCHOOL a COMING!! u get this kinda warmup this time year means, ALL HELL going break loose. I stick to what I said 2 weeks ago, come this time next week we be looking at a BIG SNOW!!

    tx BAILEY!!

  8. rolo says:

    folks its happening right on BAILEY calender, he gave most SNOW this winter mid JAN into Feb.

    well look at all the inicators, its COMING!!

    • Jeff Hamlin says:

      Rolo you say this stuff all the time, then it turns into, “sorry folks, just rain, nothing to see here”. ;)

      • Todd says:

        Rolo coaster :)

      • Big Papa says:

        I was thinking the exact same thing lol. He all the time comes on here and says that the old school snow is coming up and then we have a front come through and the morning it does he says all rain folks, nothing to see here. Quite comical.

  9. rolo says:

    MODERATE rain in MANCHESTER at 9;33 am.. 47 degrees.

  10. 3789N8436W says:

    Two concerns….first.. is to be watchful for roaming wildlife, i.e. deer,during this warm up as they will be foraging and enjoying the warmer air also –second…do we need to start the chant: “NO Ice, NO Ice!”?

  11. KeavyMan says:

    How does this all pan out for people of Laurel, Whitley, & Knox County? I am beginning to think we are to far south for a real winter. Moving down here from Ohio has shown me the difference a few hundred miles can make. I miss the snows and cold, personally. SO, the question is, What are our chances down here in S/C & S.E Ky have for getting involved with this OLD SCHOOL THUMPER?

  12. rolo says:

    well said BJENKS..

  13. rolo says:

    hey KMAN, is the chat room still going?? I forgot the site can u post it,

    also the stormtracker site we followed last year, what was it? I think many here join in when weather gets rough.

  14. Matthew says:

    Keep up the good work Chris. Appreciate you blog and seeing the models and such.

  15. snow lover says:

    All you weather experts tell me your thoughts on south central KY. I live in Adair Co. Do you think it good be a good winter for us? I am SO ready for a big snow!

  16. Snowlover says:

    I just finished reading Wxman’s blog. All I can say is “hmmmmm” please read it folks. Maybe I am taking his words the wrong way, but I must say it sounds pretty degrading to me. Thanks Chris!! I love reading your blog everyday!

    • Cam the Man says:

      Agreed. Even if there were morsels of truth in his statements concerning CB/other mets, that’s not how you handle conflict or disagreements maturely.

      On another note, there is growing concern the next cold shot will be short lived and January will be another mild month for Kentucky overall. Hoping someone can find SOME good knews to liven hope in those who hope for another round of snow. Honestly, I will travel anywhere in the state to see some flakes flying. :D

      • BubbaG says:

        LOL! That is what WX was saying a few days ago. He has simply been weighing the GFS more heavily than other models since it has shown warm air being a big player in results last year and this year so far.

        Not on it’s own, but the weight of model in the average with others. I have been saying the same thing, but more subtlety.

        Ironic you slam him but then point out what he has been saying ;)

        Still not condoning the tact of posts, but the GFS has been a playah’ (to some degree) as far as model results.

        • Marsha says:

          Don’t agree you talk about these model all the time BubbaG without doing what Wxman did on his blog… Sorry I just can’t agree with this

      • KellyinLouisville says:

        Since when is the internet mature?

    • Marsha says:

      Snowlover i agree it was bad I will not be reading Wxman blog ever…..

    • Lisa in Donkey Holler says:

      I agree that it was inappropriate and extremely unprofessional. Why does that person even come here regularly and post if he feels that way about Chris’s weather predictions? Apparently, he can’t get enough interest in his own blog without skimming readers off of this one.

    • Sam says:

      I would suggest others DO NOT read it!!! Don’t give him anymore traffic on his site! Just my opinion

  17. Teacher Nate says:

    As much complaining we people on here do about the lack of snow…comparativly..it could be worse. Chicago is getting ready to break a “lack of snow” record.

    http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/01/08/16414599-wake-up-call-chicago-set-to-break-73-year-old-snowless-record?lite

  18. EASTKYTEACHER says:

    I thought there was only a chance of a stray shower or two this morning. It has rained all morning, and the radar shows rain continuing.

  19. Earl says:

    A stray shower or 2 bailey. We have received .47 of rain this morning and still pourin

  20. chris g in clay county says:

    hope the rain lets up soon. i got some things i need to get done on other side of town.

    i thought they was supppose to be a stray shower or two also, but its been a little more then just a stray shower. why couldnt it done this with a snow event, had more snow then forcasted. wait, i already know why, its that one rule 33 degrees and up equals lot of mosture to work with 32 degrees and less, no mosture to go along with the cold.

    thanks chris for all the work you give to us here on the blog and on tv.

  21. Todd says:

    Just enough rain to wet the roads in Frankfort, sun trying to come out now!

  22. Tom says:

    Rain here in Rockcastle all day,

  23. We had a little rain this morning, but partly sunny and mild now. Days like this make me ready for spring. Thanks Chris for all you do. Your time is appreciated!!

  24. Ready4Snow says:

    I still have hopes of something wintry before Jan. ends…Most model’s in the LR seem’s to be has a ridge developing out west with cold air plunging south down from Canada ….It’s not bone chilling cold but at least it’s cold…Model’s have been so inconsistent in the LR so who know’s…Show’s blocking one run and the next run it’s gone…

  25. karen 57 says:

    I for one love snow …when we get it…we will deal with it….just let us know Chris so we can clear the grocery shelves….kentuckians love to eat when it snows!:)keep up the good work….thanks…..God Bless

  26. Aaron C. says:

    Well, we may have only received 0.19″ of rain so far in January, but we are going to get at least 10 times that much over the next five days. I think that “boring” weather pattern alluded to is about to be turned into a nightmare of “non-boring” proportions.

  27. Marsha says:

    Chris please just know how much most of us all appreciate you your work on this blog is remarkable, I just wish there was something we could all do for you I just don’t know what.. And how do you put up with us all you are a great man that all I can say…

  28. Deedlegirl says:

    Thanks Chris!

  29. J. says:

    Greetings from Harlan County! I check the blog nearly every day, but am only now getting around to leaving a comment. I just wanted to thank Chris for the work he does, both here on the blog and on WKYT. (I’m glad they include Harlan County in their news/weathercasts, even though we’re not in Lexington’s DMA.)

    Am hoping to see snow soon! :)

  30. Snow boots says:

    It’s weather! The one predictable thing about weather in KY is that it’s unpredictable! Yes, meteorology is a science, but not an exact one. I personally appreciate the long hours that Chris puts in – off the clock. It either snows or it doesn’t. As my father-in-law used to say, “It is what it is!” Although as a teacher, I’m pulling for snow… Post note- whatever happened to common courtesy?

  31. BubbaG says:

    As usual, the warm air is the factor rolling into next week, in spite of a cold drop. 90% rain from the precipitation as usual? Big ice for the fence areas? Dramatic pause……….

  32. 3789N8434W says:

    said it earlier…start the chant: No ice, NO ice…..!

  33. Coffeady says:

    Chris, thanks for all you do. I am probably one of your “original” followers of the blog, so I have been around a long time. Read you every day. All I can say is your track record speaks for itself. You are the best!

  34. Dan says:

    Chris, as a weather lover, I thoroughly enjoy your blog and read it daily. Keep up the good work and think SNOW!

  35. Tyler says:

    wow, some of WXMAN comments on his blog in the comments section!

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