Tracking A Wild Weather Swing

Good Thursday to one and all. Our weather is about to take a walk on the wild side over the next several days as the supercharged pattern kicks into high gear. We are tracking everything from heavy rain and near record highs to a serious temp tank and some snow.

It all gets started out there today with a big temp gradient and an increase in showers and thunderstorm activity. An area of low pressure will continue to lift northward across the Mississippi River Valley and will drag a warm front from south to north across the state today. This will mean a heck of a temp swing out there with the northern half of the state struggling in the 40s while the south hits the 60s. The mild air will then win out late today into the evening hours.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will then ramp up tonight into early Friday. A little clearing later Friday will help temps surge into the low and mid 60s.

Those 60s hang tough into Saturday. How high they get will depend on when the next round of showers and storms arrive. Locally heavy rain will be a good bet from late Saturday into Sunday. The good news is the colder scenario appears to play out and that will lessen the flood threat.

Our cold front should sweep across the state Sunday into Sunday night. The GFS is coming around to what the GFS Ensembles have been suggesting and what the GFS was saying a few days back. Take a look at the temp dive…

GFS

The GFS even says the back edge of the rain ends as snow Monday morning  across central Kentucky. For fun… here’s the snow forecast by that time…

GFS Snowfall

Again… don’t take that as the absolute truth. I’m only highlighting it to show how it’s going toward what the pattern suggests. Don’t worry… it will change with each and every run today. ;)

The same run of the GFS also shows a colder solution with the next system on Tuesday…

GFS 2

It’s likely a little too disjointed with the precipitation and may be able to put down a little snow for some. The Canadian Model certainly looks the part…

Canadian

It looks like the cold air then continues to sink southward into the middle of next week with the possibility of the first clipper of the year. That should be followed by another push of very cold air by next weekend. There’s the possibility it meets up with something down in the Gulf. The same Canadian Model likes that scenario…

Canadian 2

So, there you have it. A super busy pattern that will feature some big time changes in the next several days and lead us into a very wintry pattern for the rest of the month into February.

Have a great Thursday and check back for updates. Take care.


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33 Responses to Tracking A Wild Weather Swing

  1. james says:

    Thanks Chris! Wish those warm temps would have some sunshine with them instead of rain. For next week though, I say lets get this party started :)

  2. Cosmokramer says:

    As Yogi Berra said, it’s déjà vu…all over again! Seems like last week we were waiting for the cold and snow of this week. Now Mother Nature is saying just you wait until next week. Dang you climate change.

  3. Joey Wilson says:

    I’m already tired of the mild temps and very iffy snow chances. Let’s get back to the Christmas week pattern, please.

  4. BubbaG says:

    Stay positive, stay positive….. “The GFS even says the back edge of the rain ends as snow”. Drats! The 90% rain 10% frozen stuff for our southern fed.

    Looks like Clipper (the snow version of Flipper) will be our main chance to save the day for snow above a few inches.

  5. bjenks says:

    Thanks Chris for the update. I really like your thinking on the cold coming. You also mentioned something about getting GIDDY about our snow chances. The cold that is coming is not as extreme as 1985. I don’t see the citrus crops being damaged. So what does that mean to me. SNOW and ICE….Lows won’t run to far to the south so that we are COLD and Dry. This setup is more like 1978. Series of Lows running through after the cold air dips down over all of Kentucky. Can we say OLD SKOOL…..
    THINK SNOW!!!

  6. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks, Chris. I just know that I am ready for some cold and snow…please just tell Mother Nature to BRING IT!!! ;)
    On nother note….GO CATS!!!! BEAT VANDY!!!!
    Have a great Thursday, all. :D

  7. Mark says:

    Far western areas of KY and TN now under slight risk of severe t-storms by the SPC. Strong damaging winds the higher threat, a relatively low risk of a twister or two.

  8. Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

    The mighty clipper. I hope we see more of them because we are not going to receive any snow from a gulf induce system.

  9. Pamela Harris says:

    Kentuckians at least you guys have seen some snow; here in Richmond Va we haven’t seen a flurry:(. Just like last year. This is becoming scary. Good luck with your snow chances for next week; please send some our way.

  10. Todd says:

    That snow map if taken for real would give Frankfort to Lexington areas about 1-2 inches of snow, I would take it!

  11. james says:

    Uh oh! In Chris latest tweet, he said potential for (that 3 letter word, starts with i, ends with e) for next Tues. Want the snow, but not that other.

    • WXman says:

      Yep IF today’s GFS run turned out to be correct you’re talking BIG problems for a narrow strip from BG to LEX to Maysville.
      .

      • Debbie says:

        Yuppers…which would include Nelson Co/Bardstown, as per the usual!!! We can’t get snow, but we can put down about 2″ of ICE!!! :(

      • BubbaG says:

        Most of who dwell here know that if the outlooks a few days out call for ice, they are pretty accurate-unlike for snow.

        If the warm air wins out for the frozen stuff, we could see a fence with ice on one side of the fence. Depends on the temps on which side, since the north could be snow and the south ice, or north ice and south cold rain.

        Or, it just smacks us mainly with ice. If CB starts talking ice, prepare for the zombi apocalypse, but hope for cold rain or if could be so bold…. snow.

        The positive is the warmer surface could ease the ice factor, if it comes into play.

      • prelude says:

        I fully agree the GFS model runs for Tuesday look nasty. Look for that northward shift in the coming runs I dont belive it will shift too far north but would not surprise me to see north central KY be the bullseye.

  12. Andy Rose says:

    Wow after all that was said the last day or so on the blog and now this ^

  13. rolo says:

    well models coming round to my SINGLE DIGIT thinking temps. hmmmmm

    get ready folks OLD SCHOOL COMIN!!!

  14. Todd says:

    Not seeing enough moisture for a significant Ice threat next week, maybe a light glaze in some areas, the heaviest moisture should be east of KY if the cold air pushes in!

    • BubbaG says:

      That could mean north of 64 would be in play for more ice. North of this fence could be not fun. Cold rain is annoying, but ice is just plain bad. The only good ice is in my Diet Pepsi :)

      • prelude says:

        Yeah I go along with that you almost got believe when its all said and done that the I-64 corridor would be the dividing line between a big cussing to a mild cussing. By cussing I mean (ICE).

  15. Todd says:

    Ice is bad but it is worse when temps are in the upper 20′s vs say 32 ish, 20′s it glazes everything on contact but low 30′s it is mostly a tree limb event, of course if it is heavy enough that can lead to power issues!

  16. Shawn says:

    The 18Z GFS run has more of a snow profile than ice. Interesting that Euro has a similar look. Somebody in central KY might wake up to a mess on Tuesday.

  17. RhondaB says:

    Is the snow just for the western, northern, and central sections of Kentucky? What about southern and eastern KY?

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