Thursday Evening Thoughts

Good Thursday evening. The forecast continues to go as planned as we head into the weekend. Mild temps and rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be with us through the much of the next few days. That’s when winter shows up, again.

The models continue to show a quicker cold frontal passage Sunday. That’s when we will see 60s in the east with 30s in the west by early afternoon. The cold air then rushes eastward and drops everyone into the 30s Sunday night into Monday morning. With rain hanging around in parts of the state… a period of some light snow will be possible.

I’m turning my focus toward Monday night and Tuesday and the increasing chance for a significant round of wintry weather. The front will be stalled to our east as another low pressure works along it. That will throw moisture back into the cold air and this could lead to a broad swath of accumulating snow and some ice. The GFS Ensembles have been leading the charge with this for a while, now.

GFS

The GFS has been trending in that direction…GFS 3

Here’s what that model runs shows for snowfall…

GFS 2

Again… its way early, but the model trends fit the pattern I’ve been talking about.

What happens after that depends on what model you look at. Some blast an arctic front in here by Wednesday night and Thursday. Others say a cutoff low across the southwest ejects eastward and develops a storm to our south…

Euro

That’s the European Model forecast and is something to keep an eye on. Some of the ensembles have been showing something similar for the past few days. Notice the bitterly cold air across southern Canada. The European Model shows that working southward by next weekend…

Euro 2

Have a great evening and take care.


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67 Responses to Thursday Evening Thoughts

  1. Johnny says:

    Wonderful SE Kentucky misses out again.

    • BubbaG says:

      If you take the average of the models they do not get missed, though more a mix for the area. The problem will be the fence area, since seems that would be the main place for ice. The surface will still be warm though, so wondering on the actual accumulation for anyone. That and the ice factor would make snow estimates icy- er, dicey ;)

      Perhaps another coating to 4″ or so forecast range, to cover the many “ifs”. Will the cold air be in place to make much impact, or will stuff fall while the surface is warm and JUST when it is cold enough, we get the final 10% of the remaining moisture.

      I remember the ice storm from about four years ago evolved from a similar set-up. I can not remember though if ice was already considered a big player, at a similar point in time ahead of the event.

      CB was ahead of the curve for that event. I do remember that, since other mets were leaning more to snow, but it was ICE, ICE, BABY.

      • BubbaG says:

        This thing still is not steady in a solution average, so could be an 80 mile swing to more north or south. Not sure is a more southerly track means a warmer event. CB will though :)

      • Shawn says:

        I’ve seen a bunch of storms that SE Kentucky got where the LEX and LOU areas did without. So it goes both ways. Some winters the NW counties get nailed and some winters the SE counties get nailed.

      • Kelly in Louisville says:

        Always go with the under on snow and the over on temperatures. The pattern is wet and muddy.

        • bjenks says:

          It will be frozen mud by next weekend..LOL

          • Kelly in Louisville says:

            We’ll see…coldest high temperature for the next 10 days is forecast to be a 37 degrees late next week. Some seasonably cold lows in the mid 20′s as well so at least the mud will be frozen during the night and early morning. Of course, any forecast beyond 3 or 4 days this time of year is little more than a crap shoot.

            • Kelly in Louisville says:

              As always, hoping Chris has nailed this and we get some winter. I really want at least one good snow this year.

              • bjenks says:

                Yes I agree!…It has been two long years since we have had a good snow that has hung around a few days. I think temps will be tanking next week and not moderating. Time will tell.

        • MikeM says:

          Bubbas been doing that for 15 years. Hate to say it but been right more than wrong.

  2. Coffeady says:

    Woo Hoo Chris. If that storm to our south develops, we could be sitting in tall cotton! ( or a big snow

  3. Johnny says:

    What happened to all of this “supposed” snow SE Kentucky was getting from late December on? WX Man, I have to admit it, but you’ve been dead on.

    • Chris Bailey says:

      Show me one post where I singled out southeastern Ky as getting much snow. Lexington and points north have been running above average in snowfall, so far.

      This is KENTUCKY Weather Center and not My Back Yard Weather Center. ;)

      • Chris Mercer says:

        You go, Chris! I don’t know when SE KY became the epicenter of the state anyways!

      • Shawn says:

        Actually.. Lexington’s average for November-January is 6.7″ of snow. So far, Lexington has only received 3.4″ of snow, and that came from basically one storm. So we have only gotten 50% of normal so far. Not even close to running above average. And southern counties haven’t gotten squat. So I understand why they are getting restless.

        • Todd says:

          Frankfort is at 4.75 inches of snow so far, 3 more inches of snow in January and we are above normal, I like those odds on jan 10 th!

        • Mark says:

          Lexington averages 2.8 inches before Jan 1. IIRC, Lex got their measurable snow in late Dec which would have been above average up to that date.

          Average January snow is 3.9, but we are only a third the way through the month. The 6.7 average (3.9 + 2.8) would apply at the end of Jan 31, not at the end of Jan 10.

          Ironic that SE Kentucky did get big snows from Sandy, but generally only at the higher elevations were few people live.

          • Shawn says:

            OK fine, if you want to get technical about it, from November 1 through January 10, Lexington averages 4.0″ of snowfall. We’re at 3.4″. Any way you cut it, it is inaccurate to say that we are running above average. That’s all I’m saying.

            • Mark says:

              WXman, CB clearly said “Lexington and points north”. Ok, Lex is now (and only relatively recently) below average (but still not your original 50% of normal figure).

              But areas north of Lex like Harrison County got just over six inches. I don’t know if Harrison County has official average snow statistics, but perhaps they and other areas (like Frankfort) likely would still be above normal for now.

              WXman, we respect your general knowledge of wx. I’ve learned a thing or two about wx from your posts. But your stupid word games and other excess baggage is for the birds. On second thought, not even the birds deserve it.

    • upslope says:

      don’t know where you saw that forecast but it wasn’t on this blog

  4. rolo says:

    OLD SCHOOL COMIN!!! u better get ready cause the next month going be FUNKLY like a MONKEY!!

    TX Chris THE LEGEND Bailey.

    fine with the snow set up Monday nite tuesday, its after that u best ALL get Ready as REAL WINTER COMIN!!

    • bjenks says:

      I am glad someone else is on the old skool boat. We are in for a wild ride during the back end of winter.

    • BubbaG says:

      This is brother Rolo going UP the Rolocoaster ;)

      • bjenks says:

        Yea! I know….But I have this feeling he is going to be on a wild ride down this time. Trend buster is on it’s way. I have not seen the conditions as ripe as they are about to get for all of Kentucky to receive snow over the next month and a half. We will see.

  5. KeavyMan says:

    Looks like a bummer for London/Corbin area on them maps. Thank God things can still change. This rain is getting old.

    RAIN, RAIN, GO AWAY!
    DON’T COME BACK TILL YOU TURN WHITE!

    Come chat…CHRIS IS ALWAYS WELCOMED…
    http://weatherforkentucky.chatango.com/

  6. eyewall says:

    Flu epidemic, GI viruses, ice, and people complaining about not getting snow. Spring can’t come early enough for me.

  7. TONEY says:

    good thursday evening from the town of wayne, wva…….it is 7:15pm as of this typing and the sky is partly cloudy with the temps in the mid 40s at 45 degrees in my back yard and 46 degrees at the airport in huntington, wva. the high today did manage to make it to the 50 degree mark after all the low clouds and fog burnt off but there was only a few peaks of sun that managed to get through the clouds. thank you to chris for the valuable update and all the maps you put up for us to view.
    looks as though the heavy rain threat may be lessening some on the models with the quicker movement of the cold front…….as with any thing, only time will tell…….thanks for reading and til the next late night update, may god bless all.

    • Mark says:

      The West Liberty KY tornado rampaged just to the south of Wayne WV. Glad you were not affected. Many others of course were not so fortunate. That twister tracked nearly 90 miles.

  8. Andy Rose says:

    You can tell winter still has not arrived still have red wasps flying around

  9. snowluv says:

    folks i wouldn’t dwell on that accumulation map, Chris is just showing us so we know what some of the models are starting to think. That swath can and more than likely will go north or south of its current location. Honestly I would rather not be in the middle of it at this point from this far out. Atleast the pattern seems to be trending colder as some mets were backing off the idea.

  10. Thank you for these updates, much appreciated. Since we don’t have TV, we follow on Twitter and read these.

  11. In Lincoln Co. says:

    I’ll take that snowfall map! ….just no ice please :)

  12. snow princess says:

    Hey, WXman…what do you see for SE Ky during the mentioned time frame? Any thoughts on snow, ice, mix, or all rain? Love to hear you thoughts…Rolo, chime in as well since you and I are both here in “Gunchester”, lol :P

  13. james says:

    Thanks Chris! Here’s another version of the snow map Chris posted. I know it will change, but just showing the potential. http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_120HR.gif

  14. Miss Kate says:

    you guys see all those maps with that pretty blue line? it makes me giggle cause I sit on the north side and BubbaG sits on the south side. neeneer!!!! LOL!

    but seriously, with the ice storm in….2003? it for real started on the north side of the river and the more north you went in Lexington, the more ice there was. and it has been that way with several snows as of late. why is it that the river is usually the cut off line in these parts? any one have any explanation for it? he is not joking when he talks about it.

  15. weather blog troll says:

    Thank you, Chris.

    Think SNOW.

  16. BubbaG says:

    Ruh roh, I am beginning to hear that ripoff of Queen’s song, Under Pressure……… Ice, Ice, Baby. Counting on some warm surface temps to fend off any rough stuff.

    As far as snow, it does not seem that the models consider the warm ground, so that and the mix transition would cut into the map estimates. Also, whatever speed of the system. The ice storm from four years ago hung around for a while. Perhaps not the case for this.

  17. sue(Flatwoods,KY) says:

    very foggy here this morn, only hit 46 deg for the high today it stayed mostly cloudy all day! Really hoping for some SNOW here! NO ICE PLEASE!!!!! Thanks Chris for all of your hard work and time that you put into this blog!!!!!

  18. Marie says:

    Oh no, Chris said the ICE word. :(

  19. Cam Hale says:

    Just to let you know, we are still reading your blog from Huntington, WV.

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