Good Thursday evening. The forecast continues to go as planned as we head into the weekend. Mild temps and rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be with us through the much of the next few days. That’s when winter shows up, again.

The models continue to show a quicker cold frontal passage Sunday. That’s when we will see 60s in the east with 30s in the west by early afternoon. The cold air then rushes eastward and drops everyone into the 30s Sunday night into Monday morning. With rain hanging around in parts of the state… a period of some light snow will be possible.

I’m turning my focus toward Monday night and Tuesday and the increasing chance for a significant round of wintry weather. The front will be stalled to our east as another low pressure works along it. That will throw moisture back into the cold air and this could lead to a broad swath of accumulating snow and some ice. The GFS Ensembles have been leading the charge with this for a while, now.

GFS

The GFS has been trending in that direction…GFS 3

Here’s what that model runs shows for snowfall…

GFS 2

Again… its way early, but the model trends fit the pattern I’ve been talking about.

What happens after that depends on what model you look at. Some blast an arctic front in here by Wednesday night and Thursday. Others say a cutoff low across the southwest ejects eastward and develops a storm to our south…

Euro

That’s the European Model forecast and is something to keep an eye on. Some of the ensembles have been showing something similar for the past few days. Notice the bitterly cold air across southern Canada. The European Model shows that working southward by next weekend…

Euro 2

Have a great evening and take care.