Wild Temps Rule The Weekend

Good Friday, everyone. This update isn’t going to be the normal, long winded late night post and you can thank NyQuil for that one. Your friendly weatherdude simply cannot shake this bug that’s going around. Everyone always blames the weather for getting sick. I just blame the job of forecasting the weather. :)

Showers and thunderstorms will work across the state through the first half of today. Heavy downpours are a good bet for many areas. Some clearing will take place this afternoon and that helps send temps into the low and mid 60s. Some upper 60s will be possible and record highs are in jeopardy.

Upper 60s look likely for Saturday and I can’t rule out 70 degrees for areas getting in on some sun. Showers and thunderstorms will increase later in the day as a powerful cold front moves into western Kentucky Saturday night. That front will then swing through here Sunday with gusty winds and heavy rains.

The temp drop along and behind this front will be wicked. Temps could drop 30 degrees in just a matter of hours. Check out the temp gradient showing up at midday Sunday…

Yes… THAT is a cold front, my friends!

The front does slow down just to our east as waves of low pressure continue to lift northward along the front.  That will likely lead to a wintry mix Monday into Tuesday and it’s a situation we need to keep an eye on. I made the mistake of giving the GFS some love in my last updates. It is back to having being a fish out of water and I’m back to holding my nose while looking at it.

The Canadian shows the Monday night system and then offers up a new wrinkle by Wednesday and Thursday. Here’s Monday night…

Canadian

The new twist for Wednesday is a stronger system to eject out of the Gulf of Mexico and up the east coast as an arctic front moves in behind it…Canadian 2

To be fair… all the models are really struggling on how to handle all these lows working northeastward along the front. As I have been saying… forecast the pattern and worry about the details as we get closer to each of them.

It’s interesting to note, the Canadian did go the way of the European with a major arctic plunge diving southward by next weekend…

Canadian 3

I will update things again later today. The NyQuil is kicking in. Must… get… sleep.

Have a great Friday and take care.


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115 Responses to Wild Temps Rule The Weekend

  1. Dawnp007 says:

    Thanks for your generosity of time in keeping us updated. Hope you get to feeling better soon.

  2. Chanda says:

    Hope you feel better soon! Thank you for all you do!

  3. sue(Flatwoods,KY) says:

    temp was 41 deg when i went to bed and this morn it is 54 deg! Ready to see what happens will all of these different systems, READY for SNOW!!!!! Hope you feel better Chris!!!!!!!!

  4. Chris Mercer says:

    As of yesterday, Jan 10, here are the average winter temps for Lexington the past two years:

    2011-2012: 40.0
    2012-2013: 40.4

    Last winter finished in the Top 10 warmest since the 1870′s. Still can’t find a reason why this one will not. The pattern is going to have to change drastically. I know Chris thinks it will, and I hope he is right.

  5. BubbaG says:

    Looks like the trend then is an overall warmer event, based on the average trend of the models. Looks like warm air might win again and this would likely have an impact on the expected cold air to set in. We are looking at a marginal swing of about 20 more degrees colder, just a few days ago. Unless CB is not referring to the same hourly timeframe.

    Another rinse and repeat event? I will take that over ice, but seems the trend might win out. The only solace would be seeing Rolo’s rolocoaster post. Pure gold :)

    • BubbaG says:

      We “were” looking, not “are” looking.

    • Danny says:

      Ok, so there is a tight temp grade on Sunday. We go from possible record highs today and tomorrow possibly hitting 70 degrees. Cold front comes Sunday and drops us back to normal temps upper 30′s lower 40′s for highs. Im missing the whole part of the well advertised artic intrusion. I dont see that coming.

      • KellyinLouisville says:

        Because it isn’t. NWS forecast for the ‘ville has the coldest temp in next 10 days being 26 with highs in mid to upper 40′s next week. The pattern stays muddy.

  6. rolo says:

    like ROLO been saying when u get this type of WILD WEATHER, u cant really be settle few days out. there will be a BIG STORM develop in the south and OLD SCHOOL in PLAY!! just watch the next 10 days for that to happen!!

  7. Bernard P. Fife says:

    Chris said…”forecast the pattern & worry about the details as we get closer” So I am wrong to say some light snow for the north & a rainy, muddy, mess for the rest of us?

    • BubbaG says:

      Considering the discussion went from a big temperature drop and snow maps to an apparently lot smaller temperature drop and a mix, seems that might be about right.

  8. Shawn says:

    There’s been too much chit chat. WXman isn’t a cover-up. It’s a title you earn by going to college and studying the science. So the high school comments need to stop. And if anybody has a problem with the stats I’ve posted, prove me wrong or else give me an apology. I don’t play semantics. I’m a scientist. I tell it like it is. If it looks like it may snow, I’ll say so. If it’s all hype, I’ll say so. The great mets. tell people the truth. Joe Bastardi has been known to tell it like it is, and he catches crap for it too. It’s a sad day when people disrespect honesty.

    • Bobby A says:

      Are you WXMan?

    • weather blog troll says:

      I’ve followed Joe Bastardi and you sir are no Joe Bastardi!

    • Andy Rose says:

      after what you have done the past bit you want to talk about disrespect? LoL Comedy i love it

      • Shawn says:

        Notice how you always post to my comments but I never post to yours? Jealous are you? Why don’t you refrain from commenting the same way I do for you? And again, I have disrespected no one. I state facts about the wx and move on. Prove me wrong or apologize.

        • Andy Rose says:

          you come in Chris’s blog and contradict him at every turn that is disrespectful whether or not you intended it to be or no does not matter that is how he and others perceived it you should have apologized to Chris. As far as me apologizing to you LMAO.

          • teach says:

            Shawn/WXman, If I may play devil’s advocate for just a moment. I respect your posts and read your blog. You are good at what you do. I respect Chris’ posts and read his blog. I have found no one better when it comes to an actual forecast than Chris. if he puts out a snowfall map, count on it. He blogs about what may happen in the future much earlier than any other met will touch on it. That is what this board is about weather discussions and what MAY happen. Now to the advocate part: I find it disrespectful that you call him out on your blog. Are you doing this to “create traffic” to your blog? It appears so. If you don’t like this blog then don’t post here. It is not your forum. I will continue to visit both and enjoy what you have to say about weather.

            • teach 2 says:

              Thank you, well put. Sad, that adults need instruction in good public manners. We may need to direct them to an Emily Post site.

        • Matthew says:

          Shawn, I have said I respect what you do and see that you are knowledgeable. But, you know how hard it can be to predict the weather. You also know what this blog is about. Chris shows people models, prospects, etc. He never promises that it will happen. He only says his current feeling and shows the Nam, Euro, GFS, etc. to back that up. And he will many times point out that it is not a sure thing or to take it with a grain of salt at this point. That is why i like the blog here. I see models and talk of what may happen and get the ideas of a met or mets if some post their thoughts.

          I also respect and appreciate that Chris takes time out of his day to keep us updated. He could very easily chose to use this time for other things.

          As for you being disrespectful that is on you. Only you know your intent. I will say it does seem disrespectful at times. And remember, Chris is not lying or blowing smoke here. He provides thoughts. And he is more accurate than some want to give him credit for. It is just some dwell on what he says like he said it was a sure thing or set in stone. Posting a few current model runs, pointing out that they have been fairly consistent for a few days with minor changes, and that snow is a possibility is not the same as saying it will happen or not.

          Sorry to all if I seem out of line here. Just felt like posting my thoughts.

        • MIke says:

          If you are not happy here, go somewhere else to play.

    • BubbaG says:

      I have a science degree and MBA, but know to be respectful of others :) Folks are not all respectful back, but that is the curse of being Bubba ;)

      The outlooks have missed every week and appear to be missing another by picking up the warmer air a few days in, but the demeanor of pointing things out should be cordial.

      Factor in the likely rinse and repeat for snow hopes once again and your sudden post today, not seeing how this ends well in this thread.

  9. karen 57 says:

    Geez …y does everybody have to argue about who is right.we will get what and take what the good Lord gives us:) always somebody that wants to rain on someone elses parade..everybody knows how r weather changes so quickly….give it a rest:)

  10. karen 57 says:

    And Chris nice job ….feel better:)

  11. Ready4Snow says:

    I don’t think we wan’t to much artic cold…Too much cold will push system’s south of us…Would also think we would wan’t to keep just a little southeast ridging so system’s can move west of the alp’s…After all this sloppy rain and near record temp’s is over the big picture is where the polar vortex set’s up shop..Most model’s are taking it into eastern canada,,,If you wan’t snow let’s hope it don’t move too far south..Why you may ask???Read first sentence…Any system cutting and going underneath the artic cold,that area has the best chance of getting snow….There’s just so much timing and everything for ky to get a good snow…All you can hope for is one day all the pieces fall into place…

    • MIke says:

      Here you go… Not too cold to start with, high 20s for the snow. Then the bottom falls out so it hangs around and doesn’t get too messy, warm up a bit and get another good one… lather, rinse and repeat…

      • Coffeelady says:

        Mike, I like the way you think! Lets hope that is what happens at some point. Those of us who have lived in KY all our lives know how fickle the weather can be. But we always have hope…he was always my favorite comedian! ;) (Sorry, couldn’t help it.)

  12. WendyT says:

    Chris, I had the bug last week and it’s a doosey. All I did was sleep for 3 days! Take care and eat some chicken soup.

  13. Shawn says:

    So anyway.. for those who care about the weather rather than being immature..

    As of this morning LEX is still below average on precipitation, has zero snow on the board, and is now 2 degrees above average on temperature. So, we are dry and warm, relative to normal. We will likely bring precip close to average this weekend. It is important to remember that January rarely is telling of Feb or March so winter is far from over. If you love snow don’t lose hope just because it is boring now.. the climatological lag will catch us soon and we may get more active.

    • Wes says:

      What do you see for the rest of this month for SE Ky?

    • Lisa in Donkey Holler says:

      If anyone wants your thoughts on the weather, they’ll visit your blog.

      • Richmond says:

        You all are the biggest *ss kissers that I have ever seen!!! Until Chris tell Shawn/Wxman to quit posting-then he can post whatever he wants to!!! Andy-you seem to call Chris out an awful lot yourself for you to be so hard on Shawn-just sayin’. This is not a fan club, it is a weather blog to discuss weather. You can like it or not like it but the fact is that Shawn is right A LOT of the time. I LOVE Chris Bailey and have followed him and been a huge fan for many years and I believe he is a big enough boy to take care of himself without you all jumping in like a posse of middle schoolers.

        • BubbaG says:

          Actually, this all started when CB replied to a WX post and THEN stuff got popping.

          Shawn, or poster formerly known as Wxman interjects personal comments or a monologue rather than just post the weather views. Had he worded differently, CB would have not posted in the first place to start all this wacky stuff.

          In fact, he did it in some posts in this very thread right here. To quote the late, not so great Rodney King: Can’t we all just get along??

          • Richmond says:

            BubbaG-You are one of my favorites on here. I always enjoy your posts. I just think that others should be allowed to disagree but I don’t believe in disrespect either.

  14. cjmajorgirl says:

    Hope you feel better soon, Chris!

  15. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks, Chris. Hope you are feeling better soon. Looks like a busy time headed our way. While I don’t relish the heavy rain, the potential that follows is nice….still say we need a period of cold weather (and snow) to pull nature back into balance bug wise…(and me in a good mood snow wise ;) )
    Have a great Friday, everyone. Feel better, Chris.

  16. MikeM says:

    You have to give Chris credit for allowing Wxman, aka Shawn, Wxquack to continue to post. Chris has thicker skin than I do. A lot thicker skin.

  17. Ready4Snow says:

    No one look at the latest run of the GFS???..The models are beginning to hint at what’s to come…BRRRRRRRRRRR……Don’t think it will that cold but we’ll see how it play’s out…

  18. Bobby A says:

    Chris (or Bubba or whoever),

    Am I right in thinking that there will be a small dip in temps followed by a larger one next week? Thanks!

  19. snow princess says:

    This drama is enough to drive anyone insane. My goodness, why can’t you all act like adults? Chris can and will handle his own here I’m sure. He does NOT need you all stirring the pot!! If there is a problem on here it’s you overgrown adults meddling and agging it on!!!! Grow up already!!!

  20. MarkLex says:

    Wow – Chris is gonna love reading these comments when he comes out of his NyQuil coma!

  21. bjenks says:

    Thanks Chris for the post.

    WXMAN…Keep your thoughts coming and get off your apology kick. If anyone deserves and apology it is Chris Bailey!
    Everyone else, If you have a issue with WXMAN then skip his comment and go to the next. Sick of seeing 40-60 comments, reading and finding that 80% DO NOT pertain to the weather or CB’s update. You all need to start your all’s own “BICKERING BLOB”.

    Indicies still pointing to cold and snowy…..Just hope it arrives before spring gets here.

    Thanks again Chris Bailey!

    • bjenks says:

      “an” apology and BLOG not BLOB

      • Babs says:

        Bickering BLOB worked just as well! ;)

        Agreed. Talk about the weather or what you think is going to happen and not the people in here! Ignore those that you don’t like! I give my 7 year old this same advice! :)

  22. LD says:

    http://news.yahoo.com/rare-snowfall-hit-jerusalem-middle-east-152142641.html

    30 miles from Lex, still haven’t had measurable snow fall this winter. Dallas, TX has had more snow, other weird areas as well, but that’s just too much.

  23. Shawn says:

    12Z Euro is even less favorable than GFS…

  24. BengalFan says:

    Yes , I read about Jerusalem getting a big snow. So maybe it will happen for Madison County. I think we may get a big story right up if it snow here, since it RARELY DOES!!!!..

    Gosh, I really hope next week brings some snow our way!

    I didnt go to College for WEather, but I have experience or lived in weather since the 70′s (does that count)…but I have a bad feeling were not going to be that cold or that much snow.

  25. Jeff Hamlin says:

    Bubba is it too much to ask for a strong cold snap to kill off all the illness and bugs? :)

  26. Chris Mercer says:

    Ahh–I feel like the comment section of the blog has become a soap opera. Meanwhile, up to 67 degrees here in the tropics of Lawrenceburg. I’ve been talking with someone in Phoenix and they are having five straight nights of freezes–unheard of recently.

    Our winter continues to run warmer than last winter. In the past 140 years, only two winters have are in the “back-to-back” Top 10 warmest categories. 1948-1949 and 1949-1950. We are well on pace to join those with 2011-2012 and 2012-2013. That is a fact.

    • Danny says:

      As of now it might be a fact but you will be singing a different tune when winter is all said and done.

      • Chris Mercer says:

        I hope I am singing a different tune! I’m just pointing out the facts each day. We had record warmth in December, and now record warmth in Mid-January. The coldest temp of the winter has been in the Upper Teens.

  27. mikew says:

    Whats the name of your blog wxman i didnt know you had one i will check it out

  28. Michael P. Boyle County says:

    Whats all the fuss?
    The models I see suggest there will be rain, snow and ice and a huge temperature drop in Kentucky in the coming days. Thats pretty much what Chris said.
    For Boyle County I see a possibility of an inch or more of snow on sunday night with the chance of some ice. Monday night I see a fair shot at 1-3 inches of snow, possibly some ice. Temps should tumble sunday into monday. Areas north and west better shot at snow.

  29. Tyler says:

    the latest Euro brings a blast of arctic air in here later next week!

  30. snow princess says:

    Same old song and dance folks……move along…nothing to see here but muddy drama! :P

  31. JPweatherman201t says:

    Don’t believe each run. look for trends. Winter around here is nuts. All mets need Nyquil and Aspirin because of it.

    Yes, I am in school to become a meteorologist. Hence, the screen name! :)

  32. JPweatherman2015 says:

    Don’t believe each run. look for trends. Winter around here is nuts. All mets need Nyquil and Aspirin because of it.

    Yes, I am in school to become a meteorologist. Hence, the screen name! :)

    • Coffeelady says:

      Well, I wish I were younger, and that is probably what I would have done, as well. I majored in Broadcasting, but lean more to radio than tv. Still, a good meteorologist on the air waves of radio is a good thing, too. Just look how many stations pick up the recorded forecast from the KYT folks, and others.
      We can never have too many weathermen, but there is only ONE Chris Bailey! ;)

  33. KeavyMan says:

    Latest forecast for Corbin, Ky for Monday night into Tuesday!

    Monday Night Rain and snow. Low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
    Tuesday A slight chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 41. Chance of precipitation is 10%.

    Lets see if this works out.

    Don’t forget the chat. let’s talk weather and Chris’s predictions.

    http://weatherforkentucky.chatango.com/

  34. Danny says:

    Nws out of Louisville has taken the chance of any wintery precip out of the forecast. CB has got to be pulling his hair out the GFS has once again painted a picture of some wintery precip and then two days later says its a no go. Its been the story pretty much all winter so far the GFS gets you excited 4 to 5 days out with a nice shot of winter weather and then a few days before the storm hits the GFS says, just kidding. Its a very disrespectful computer model.

  35. Chris Mercer says:

    This winter is wimpy so far, no doubt! I do remember 1997-1998, however. There was only one significant snow that winter, and it was in February. And the only single digit temps came in March.

  36. Chris Mercer says:

    Lexington tied a record high today, at 66. Guess what year it tied? 1890. Guess what the warmest winter on record was here? 1889-1890. I claim it is going to take an amazing period of cold to bring this winter to the 1981-2010 normals for Lexington. I am starting to think this is the second winter in a row that Chris’ seasonal forecast will bust. Not a criticism at all, because I am grateful Chris will even attempt a seasonal forecast. But I do remember him calling for below normal temps for the winter overall, and I just don’t see how that is possible at this point. Anyone care to point to some data that says we actually will be cold enough to offset this mild period?

    • Chris Mercer says:

      By the way, the average temperature in Lexington today was 60!!! 60!!! That’s normal for October or May! And, ten degrees above this date last year. This winter continues to climb up the list of “warmest ever.” It won’t beat 1889-1890 but it is ahead of last year!

  37. TONEY says:

    good evening from the town of wayne, wva….it is 6:20pm with a temp of 59 here in town and 60 at the tri-state airport…….we had a few hours of showers today from about 10:30am to 1pm and in all about .25inches fell.

    currently the skies are very foggy and i would tend to believe if they get much foggier after dark that a dense fog advisory would be issued along some of the rivers.

    local mets here are forecasting 1 to 2 inches of soaking rain in the sunday to tuesday time period and i just seen the 7 day local and next saturday has highs in the mid 20s with lows in the single digits.

    thanks chris for all you do and i look forward to the next update whether it be this evening or late night, depending on how you are feeling…..get some rest and get well my friend and god bless you.

    • Leeannie says:

      Saw that forecast too! Glad to see other forecasters are finally coming on board. I suppose the record highs tomorrow are taking center stage right now. I have a feeling we will be paying for that warmth!

  38. BubbaG says:

    Okay, I am saying it: Given the way things have gone with warm air being top dog this (so far) and last winter, plus this event looking warmer than “expected”, how can we expect a sustained arctic blast? Seems it will be warmer than expected, unless the warm air has gotten tired and wants lay low for awhile…….

    At what point do we see the snow always a week out and go, meh?

    It has been so bleh, that even Lucy is depressed. She might take up soccer instead.

    • BubbaG says:

      Yes, I know it looks promising, but that is “next week”. Anyone else seeing the trend? CB must be going nuts with this stuff.

    • Coffeelady says:

      BubbaG, NEVER!!!! You are like me, my friend, in the fact that you are ever the optimist! We see that chance for a snow, and can’t help but think….THIS time we will get it. We simply can’t help it, bro. We are what we are, and that is snow lovers. :D

  39. Todd says:

    Yep last night the up coming Monday nite ghost storm was getting more of Chris’s attention, tonight it s back to maybe a little mix on the end Tuesday??? This winter is looking less promising by the day!

    I know think positive ;)

    • BubbaG says:

      I try, but the warm air makes mee sleepeeeee.

      • Todd says:

        I hear ya, now we are even hearing that next weekend it might think about a cold blast, really what is it about the one week out syndrome?

        I think the models are playing a evil game with all of us snow starved folks in ky!

      • Chris Mercer says:

        I am just staying with facts. We had two cold winters in a row in 09-10 and 10-11, although not Top 10 Cold. We are now having two record warm (Top 10) winters in a row. Let’s face it, winter here, even when it is cold, is not as cold as it was for most of the 20th century. 1948-49, and 1949-50 were the last time we had two winters in a row this warm.

  40. NWS Forecast for me:

    Sunday Night Rain and sleet likely before midnight, then a chance of snow and sleet between midnight and 3am, then a chance of snow after 3am. Cloudy, with a low around 23. North northwest wind 9 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

    Monday A 40 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. North wind 7 to 9 mph.

    We shall see if it pans out. I prefer today’s warm 65 degree temps :)

  41. BubbaG says:

    Funny, I usually have vivid dreams after taking NyQuil. What if CB does and has a dream about a big 18″ mega snowstorm blizzard hitting the area and shares the joy with the blog- only to wake up to warm damp air…..

    That is too low. I hope he is dreaming of sugar bunnies and gingerbread gerbils instead :)

  42. Adam says:

    Is that -30 degrees C approaching Cincinnati that I see on the 00z run of the 12 Jan GFS for 23 Jan? Looking at 850tempmslpprecip.

    If so, that’s pretty remarkable.

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