The Fun Is Just Beginning

Good Saturday to one and all. Record warm temps invaded the bluegrass state Friday and a few more records may bite the dust today. This flirtation with March is about to come to an abrupt end on Sunday as a powerful cold front works through. This allows winter to come roaring back and likely sets the stage for some extreme winter weather for much of the country in the coming weeks.

High temps today will hit the upper 60s to around 70 in many areas as winds continue to gust up. We will have a mix of sun and clouds to go along with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rains will be possible with any storm that goes up.

Our cold front works into western Kentucky tonight as a wave of low pressure works along it. This will enhance the rainfall and could lead to local high water issues for a few folks into Sunday morning. That round of heavy rain producing showers and storms will work eastward across the state on Sunday.

The temp map Sunday is going to be awesome to look at. Temps in central and eastern Kentucky will be in the 60-65 degree range into early Sunday afternoon. Western Kentucky will have temps in the 30s at the same time. Those 30s will surge eastward and many areas will record a 30 degree drop in just a few hours.

We could even see the rain end as a little sleet or snow across western Ky Sunday afternoon and evening.

This is where our weather picture runs into a couple of question marks. That cold front will put the brakes on just to our east. Another wave of low pressure should ride northeastward along this boundary late Monday into Tuesday. The trend on the models has been for a wintry event to unfold across parts of the state.

The NAM has been the most robust with this system and produces quite a bit of snow, ice and rain across the state. Here’s what the NAM is showing…

NAM 3

Snowfall through Tuesday Morning…

NAM

Freezing Rain Accumulation through Tuesday Morning…

NAM 2Let me caution you this is only one run of one model and I promise you things will look different as each run comes out. I’m just showing you what the models are suggesting and telling you there is the possibility of winter weather. The maps above are NOT a forecast from me.

The Canadian Model offers support to the stronger solution we see from the NAM…

Canadian

The GFS had this same scenario for several days in a row, then lost it for the past few days. The latest run is trying to bring it back and it may just do that at some point today. The “almost” scenario from the recent GFS isn’t impossible, and a lot will depend on where the front slows down at and how much upper energy cuts off in the southwestern states.

Moral of the story… nothing is even close to being set in stone.

There could be an arctic front dropping in late Thursday or Friday and that would deliver a nice shot of cold and a few snow showers.

While, winter comes back in the week ahead, it’s what’s coming late next weekend into the following week that is getting everyone’s attention.

Basically… the north pole may dive into the eastern half of the United States. Every single model shows this happening in some form or fashion. This is one of those rare times the models actually match up with what the global indices say should happen. Even the GFS has it…

GFS

While, that is likely too extreme, I do think it has the right idea.  The Canadian Model introduces the brutal cold with arctic snows..

Canadian 2

I’m on the mend and that means updates will come your way later today. Looks like I’m going to have to teach a refresher course on commenting dos and don’ts. The blog police will be setting up roadblocks through the weekend. Word has it they have some suspects in mind. ;)

Have a great Saturday and take care.


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71 Responses to The Fun Is Just Beginning

  1. Beverly McCarty says:

    Woah! That much ice would be devastating! Def hope that model changes!

  2. Beverly McCarty says:

    Looked at wrong map! Lol

  3. Firemanblue says:

    Thanks Chris…looks like an interesting few weeks coming up

  4. Andy Rose says:

    Bubba G you are correct again Sir

    • MikeM says:

      Still can’t get the image of GingerBread Gerbils out of my head. ;)

    • BubbaG says:

      I am not correct, but the combination of rolling historic trend and weighted average of the models are. Some models do better than others, depending on the system and also surface temperatures. The net solution never seemed to be a big snow and if anything, mainly mix/ice event.

      Depending on the temperature (duh), the fence could be a really un-fun place to be for this event. Looks like CB is is getting a bead on this one to call it, but he is 100% correct that nothing is locked. Colder temps could mean mainly snow/ice event, where a warmer event is ice/rain and a little snow. My view has not changed since a few days ago.

      In part due to the rather unprecedented high temps smacking into the cold front. Seems some could have some rough storm activity, given the temperature differences rolling through.

      Watch out for them gingerbread gerbils- they are both fierce and tasty :)

      • BubbaG says:

        Meant this event is not locked due to the unprecedented temp situation. It is easy for me to type stuff, but CB has to do a REAL forecast.

  5. Cosmokramer says:

    “While, winter comes back in the week ahead…”—–winter hasn’t been seen in our neck of the woods since Feb. 2011….lol

    “…it’s what’s coming late next weekend into the following week that is getting everyone’s attention.”—–George Micheal and Wham sang it best with Wake Me Up Before You Snow-Snow…..

    The other day my dad said, “When I was your age, it used to snow in January!”

  6. Catrina Adkins says:

    Bring on the snow! The kids should have at least one good snow to build a snowman! We’ve been snow poor here in Pike county!!

    • Catrina Adkins says:

      When I was little it would snow most of Winter and they didnt have salt trucks or snow plows so we’d get out of school for weeks at a time and the snow stayed around long enough to enjoy it!

    • scully says:

      Amen!! We are snow poor too. :) my kids would love to build a snowman!!! :)

  7. Coffeady says:

    Thanks, Chris. Glad to hear you are feeling better. Hopefully winter will find us shortly and we will get to see some much missed (and wanted) snow. Pattern you describe certainly looks ripe for it! Have a great day, all, and GO CATS! Will be looking forward to the updates. Right now, gotta go to work. Have a great Satirday, everyone.

  8. james says:

    For the Monday-Tuesday system, the morning run of the nam has trended toward the GFS. Guess it could still change before then, but not looking good for the moment :(

  9. Ben C says:

    I am so ready for some ‘ole school’ snow. I remember my dad used to say he walked up hill to and from school in 2 feet of snow! I miss my dad. I do however remember in 77-78 missing a month of school because of the snow. And we did not have to make it up. Maybe that is what is wrong with me now. Nah,that can’t be it. Lol. Hope today finds you feeling better CB. God bless and have a great day.

    • Coffeelady says:

      Ben, I remmber the winters of 77-78. I was a newlywed and we got a snow on Thnksgiving weekend, and then December was fairly nice, but when January hit, we were really in the sweet spot for snow. Yes, at one time there was over 30 inches on the ground, and it was beautiful,and got bitter cold. (Of course then, electricity wasn’t quite so expensive, either.) I woul dstill take a real good snow in these parts, as we are certainly overdue.

  10. Reeneyinky says:

    Ah, the 70′s! I remember in ’77 there was over 30″ of snow on the ground and it was blue cold! Remember the Ohio River froze almost completely over? That’s extreme, but the snow would be most welcome! Even in ’94 there was lots of snow on the ground in the KY/WV/OH area! Please, please…snow, please! Glad you’re back among the living, Mr. B…Vit. C and Zinc will help. May the Lord bless you and keep you!

  11. Chris Mercer says:

    How warm will it go today? Already 59 degrees in Lawrenceburg and the sun has been up thirty minutes. I’m going to say we push past 70.

  12. WendyT says:

    Hello spring! No, wait, it’s Jan. 12.

  13. 3789N8436W says:

    to do a steal from Rolo: Today’s song: “Crazy” by Patsy Cline!!!!

  14. karen 57 says:

    Glad u r feeling better chris…i want snow really bad too.but just cold enough to keep it here a while…the brutel cold hurts my bones…lol:) God Bless ..have a wonderful day!:)

  15. weather blog troll says:

    Thanks, Chris. Looks like a rousing week of weather.
    Come on SNOW!!!
    Have a great weekend everyone!

  16. Angelica says:

    Very interesting! Can’t wait to see the development for us here in Lexington if NAM pulls through. Thanks for everything Chris! You are awesome!

  17. Thanks Chris glad your feeling better. Enjoy the warmth today and think snow tomorrow.

  18. bjenks says:

    Thanks Chris….Hope you are feeling better.
    Pretty sad that you have to put in your post something about the comments certain people are leaving. Seems that we are back in grade school and the teacher is going to take recess away from someone.

    NO SNOW FOR YOU!!! HA HA

    THINK SNOW!!! because it is coming….

  19. norman ferguson says:

    sounds like a good plan…we could use some single digit nights to kill off a few of these bugs and snows always good…hope to see some so i can build a snowman with my little ones lol if not no big deal ya know this kentucky weather snows one day spring the next lol

  20. TONEY says:

    good saturday morning to everyone in blogging land from the town of wayne, wva……the time is 10:00am and the temp in town is 49 degrees with the sun just now starting to burn through the low clouds and the fog. the temp at the tri-state airport is 54 degrees. glad to see that chris is feeling better so meds and prayers do work.

    looks like a beautiful day to get out and do most anything, although i have noticed some somewhat heavy showers entering southern ky and moving ne so i am wondering if these could put a little damper on things a little later today, if not get out and take those christmas lights down that you have been putting off til the last minute like i have.

    chris, thanks for all you do and until the next update i hope you continue feeling better…….enjoy the day and god bless all of you.

  21. rolo says:

    Morning, if u a player GULFSTREAM race 10 1 hoss VERTIFORMER 12-1 ml. buy ur baby sometyhing nice.

    tx BAILEY, keep up the hard work…. KY vs AM 4pm on the CW

  22. rolo says:

    here u all a song to listen to and u be FEELIN BETTER

    that is by HANK JR FEELIN BETTER it was the song that he wrote when he had the bad accident and then beccame the REAL HANK!!

  23. vinny says:

    Come on SPRING…!

    Keep up the good work CB and don’t worry about the “suspects” for jealousy is an evil sin brought on by lack of self confidence in ones abilities or social status.
    “The jealous are troublesome to others, but a torment to themselves” – William Penn

    GO CATS…!

  24. Mark says:

    Flash Flood Watches already up for areas of western KY/TN. Also, the SPC has said area under slight risk for severe t-storms, mainly strong damaging winds, chance of an isolated twister. Be careful everybody, stay safe.

    The winter of 1889-90 was incredibly warm. Indeed, on this date in 1890 was a major tornado outbreak, including an F4 in Hickman County KY, one of the rare F4 January twisters in KY.

    This might bring back some memories. On this date in 1985, San Antonio of all places got a foot of snow. Austin TX had about eight inches. Hmm, with the possible Arctic outbreak starting in a week or so, could places in the deep south see a repeat event? ;)

  25. bernard p. fife says:

    Still all rain for most of S & SE . Nothing to see here, folks move along :(

  26. RhondaB says:

    I still love snow. Hate Drama…
    Mr. Bailey, appreciate your forecast as always.

  27. Dawnp007 says:

    Well……no luck of getting anything but rain for us here in JCo. But I’m still hoping things will change!!! I WANT SNOW. If going to dream, I might as well dream big!

  28. Bobt says:

    January is getting away from us. Snow better hurry up and get here, because time frame is closing.

  29. Kacie says:

    Rain here in London.

  30. Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

    Grasping for snow! Hoping a model will give us a coating of snow. I want my clipper.

    • Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

      More disturbing news,the gfs has all the clipper systems moving to the north. This winter is literally a washout.

  31. Andy Rose says:

    Just an FYI Bubba Killer Tomatoes Eat France is on FMC ;)

  32. Bobt says:

    I guess I’m as disappointed in the lack of cold as much as anything else. It may get colder, but the thing is that it’s supposed to be cold. It is January after all. I’m not even having to get frost off my windshield much this year. We are in the time frame of the coldest average temps for the year right now. Average temps start increasing at the end of next week. I know we can get big snows in Feb. and March, but you can’t deny that the first part of winter has been a dud for areas of South and Southeast KY.

    • MarkLex says:

      Nope – we can’t deny it. But there’s also absolutely nothing any of us can do about it, unless you move way way way north. Kicking and screaming might help a little :D

    • Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

      Its been a dude for the majority east of I-65 & South of I-64. If you see any snow on the ground enjoy looking at it because it might be another 9-10 months before you see it laying on the ground again.
      I think we will get one decent snowfall,but these predictions of a 1978 winter is psychotic.

    • gtwister says:

      And yet people in Yuma Arizona and Death Valley CA might be scraping frost from their windshields the next few days. Wonder if they even have frost scrapers, except improvised ones like using credit cards.

  33. Hi Chris,

    Thanks for the WX updates and sorry to hear about your commenting woes. Have you ever looked at Facebook comments for WordPress? Check it out.

    Have a great weekend, everyone!

  34. Shawn says:

    The great news is that GFS continues to hold off the arctic air until Monday. So next weekend we’d be looking at sunshine and near 50. I am really hoping that pans out. We NEED a weekend with nice weather for a change.

  35. gtwister says:

    Ready for an old school winter, as long as it is not an ice storm. Only not-so-good part of winter of 1978 was missing so much school we tacked on extended hours later in the year. But that was the year Jack Givens and Rick Robey and company took the cats over Duke for the title!

    GO CATS!! The womens team beat Texas A&M a few days ago, let’s make it two for two with the mens squad.

  36. Wes says:

    “The Fun Is Just Beginning…” I hope so. Rain and spring-like temperatures are depressing. No ice…just snow. Always a week away and making faces at us…

  37. gtwister says:

    BTW, when I was growing up watching WKYT in the late 70s, I often heard Brad James talking about funnel systems. Other mets said the same thing. Not funnel cloud, funnel system. What was Brad talking about? A quick search of the net yields no fruit on this question.

    http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20110526075720AAZFXv4

  38. NWS in Paducah is giving the ice accumulation of 0.1 to 0.3 of an inch for Sunday. The temps are supposed to drop all day.

    This plus a Flash Flood Watch until 6pm Sunday.

    • gtwister says:

      There can be up to 0.5 inch and still not have large power problems, let us hope it does not get worse than this. But even a millimeter of ice is bad for the roads.

  39. Tom in Rockcastle. says:

    I knew this would happen. Looking like this week may feature some cold rain and then back to mild temps and sunny weather come next weekend. I thought no way this winter could be as worse as last season, but the truth is it has been far worst for my area. I have yet to see even a dusting, or a sustained snow shower. Just some flurries. Furthermore, I have not seen a day in which the temps managed to stay under 32 degrees for a complete 24 hour cycle.

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