Saturday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, folks. Our weekend is off and running on a very busy and warm note across the bluegrass state. We have a lot of different things to track, so let’s get cracking.

The first item up for bids is heavy rain producing showers and thunderstorms. Repeat action through Sunday may put down enough rain to cause some high water issues. For that reason, A FLOOD WATCH is now out for the western half of the state…

Warnings

Areas within the watch may see another 2″-3″ of rain through Sunday. To the east of the watch… 1″-2″ of rain will be likely.

The cold front surges eastward on Sunday and this means a 30 degree temp drop from west to east. Parts of western Kentucky will see the rain change to snow on Sunday and we could see some accumulation. The HPC has that area in a slight risk for 4″ of snow…

HPC

See what the HPC is doing late Monday into Monday night across eastern Kentucky? They have outlined that area for a slight risk of 4″ snows during this time frame. That’s with this next wave of low pressure we’ve been tracking. While the track does appear a little farther east, it is not set in stone. The GFS Ensembles…

GFS

The GFS is actually pretty bullish on some snow across southern and eastern Kentucky during this time. Again… it’s early in the game, so don’t get too caught up in it. More model changes are ahead and any deviation will have a big impact.

While we’re at it… the models continue to go gangbusters on the north pole visiting our region the following week…

GFS 2

I will try to update later this evening. Have a great rest of your day and take care.


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37 Responses to Saturday Afternoon Update

  1. Andy Rose says:

    Thanks Mr Bailey

  2. Pat says:

    Knees and shoulder hurting, dogs are really nervous tells me we may get soe rough weather this evening. I’m a summer person but if we are going to get anything out of the front Monday into Tuesday I would prefer snow Chris. I live in Lexington but work in Richmond and the road crews for I-75 in Lex leave something to be desired. The crew in Madison County do a very good job though.

  3. KeavyMan says:

    http://weatherforkentucky.chatango.com/

    Come chat Tornado Warnings in affect for parts of western Ky or the possible SE Ky snow! Chris Bailey is always welcomed in this chat room.

    • Mark says:

      SPC has Mesoscale Discussion saying a tornado watch is 80% likely for much of Arkansas, perhaps parts of far western KY/TN.

      • Mark says:

        And the PAH radar is still out of service due to dual-pol upgrade, unless WFO Paducah has PAH back up internally in test mode (upgrade started last Monday).

        But the Hopkinsville and Evansville radars are picking up the slack.

  4. KRinRichmond says:

    once again why it TWC always 10* warmer than our local METS??? What models do they use that the locals don’t??

  5. Mark says:

    Live tv coverage of tornado warnings from Evansville.

    http://www.14news.com/category/249003/live-streaming-on-14newscom-encoder-3

    As CB tweeted earlier, report of a church being hit in Livingston County KY.

  6. Dee says:

    Jackson weather now has Clay forecasted for snow, sleet, freezing rain Monday night. Earlier it was just rain.

  7. BubbaG says:

    I am not so sure we want too much cold air for this event folks. Seems more ice likely if it is.

    • BubbaG says:

      BTW, looks like this is the year the Freshman strategy has caught up with Kentucky. They are good kids, but looking iffy even for the tournament at this point. SEC is weak, so unless we start winning a bunch of games, will need to count on the brand reputation more than the team to make the Dance.

      Next year should be back on track :) Then again, I said the same about this winter too :(

      • Todd says:

        -Agree, this is coach call style of recruiting catching him, we got lucky last year but we had a few vets on that team, I think turner has been hanging out with Christian latener and Dwayne wade! Ky is now a farm team for the NBA, but this crop may be disappointed come NBA draft time. Now back to this ugly weather!

      • Rick in Columbus says:

        Layuts Gao Cayuts!

  8. Thanks for the update, Chris!

    I closely witnessed the beautiful rain today in Berea and really enjoyed my hike and the soaking rain. Would like to share my photos: http://helenbukulmez.com/2013/01/12/a-winter-hike-story/

    • Snowlover says:

      Your pictures are beautiful and it made me terribly jealous of your hike! Where were these taken in Berea? Thanks for sharing. :)

    • Bill L says:

      Helen! Hidden amongst the comments was this little treasure of a post. disappearing into the space your words and images created was gentle respite from a crazy day. Thanks for opening your journey up!

      Now, I look to the horizon for……snow!

  9. TONEY says:

    i know this is not a weather related comment but i just wanted to say that no matter who texas a and m plays if that guy named turner shoots lights out like he did today, i don’t think any one can beat them, so wildcats, don’t hang your heads and those goes for all the wildcat fans out there……sometimes a person just gets in that zone where anything goes.

  10. mikew says:

    Does anyone else think the weather channel will slowly start to lower there temperature forcast for the second half of the month?

    • Todd says:

      Have noticed TWC has temps in the mid to upper 40′s next week for Frankfort, If that verifies the big artic blast is a joke?

      • Danny says:

        Artic blast should be here around the 20th computer models tend to really struggle with polar vortex.

        • KellyinLouisville says:

          If it’s coming from Alaska it will be a joke. It’s raining in Anchorage right now and Fairbanks has rain in the forecast for tonight and tomorrow. It’s not supposed to rain in Fairbanks during the winter. As BubbaG says, the pattern is what it is and it’s going to be hard to break.

  11. TONEY says:

    good evening folks from the town of wayne, wva….it is 7:20pm as i type this……i was debating whether to wait to see if chris was going to come out with an evening update but he didn’t say for sure he was going to have 1, he said he would try to and he may not be in a good mood after the basketball game……just kidding, chris…….any way here goes……currently here in town the temp is 59 and the airport temp is 64 degrees and just like last night the fog is pretty dense for this time of evening….we had about an hour of very light rain around 1pm today that amounted to less than a tenth of an inch.

    chris, thanks for all you do and glad you are back on the mend with your cold, flu, etc……..thanks for reading and may god bless…….it would be my luck that as soon as i type this that chris will come on with an evening update, oh well if he does i will just comment again…..until next update from chris….have a blessed evening.

  12. Weatherdadof2 says:

    NWS now has most of SE KY in an ice/snow mix for Monday night into Tuesday. 65 degrees to ice in 48 hours….welcome to Kentucky.

  13. Bengalfan says:

    To be honest I could care less bout an artic blast. I just want 30 degrees and heavy snow. I will just take 4 inches and be happy,,,but if it wants to keep on, bring it. Cats not very good this year, can’t believe ravens won,,,I hope packers can win. Can’t stand this warm winter weather,,,,,,,please, please cold snow come here, come ere soon

  14. Marie says:

    Sure could do without the ice….it seems to be mentioned more and more in the discussion about next weeks weather….ugh

    • BubbaG says:

      Hence why we want the event to be warmer. A colder event will likely mean ice, since the warm air will still find a way to wedge itself as warm air aloft. Warm air is probably still a player, even if colder. Ironic, isn’t it?

      • MikeM says:

        Makes me want to go into a self induced NyQuil Coma. Wake me up when it snows.

      • Mark says:

        Although still early and not set in stone, the HPC is saying at least some risk of up to half an inch of ice, including western KY, including my area near Nashville TN. So yes bring in the warmth.

        As nasty as ice storms can be, may not be completely bad, though. I read that after the great Nashville ice storm of 1951, the birth rate skyrocketed nine months later. Guess ya gotta keep warm when power and heat are out :) Too bad my better half is an hour away and I’m down with a bug :(.

      • BubbaG says:

        Unless the warm air can go into hibernation for a while, might be a longer NiQuil coma than desired.

        Seems anyone north of I64 will be the main spot for concern as far as Kentucky, but as wild as the temp change and other unknowns, who really knows?

        CB has his work cut out for him on this one. It could be a mix/cold rain or mainly ice and a little snow. Perhaps all the above for parts of the state. Meh- funky down weather, Kittens lost and now the Packers are out :( Meeeeeehhhh!

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