Cold Front Tracker Sunday

Good Sunday, everyone. We have a powerful cold front swinging across the state today and this will lead to some wild weather. Temps in the 60s will be replaced by the 30s in a matter of hours, heavy rain and thunderstorms will blow through and some areas will see some wintry stuff mixing in. And that’s just today.

Some headlines on today’s action:

– Temps across central and eastern Kentucky will be well into the 60s into early afternoon. Readings across the west will fall quickly into the 30s today. Those 30s will work eastward behind the front into the evening.

– Heavy rain and thunderstorms will be slow movers and this could lead to local high water issues.

– The cold air catching the back edge of the rain shield means to watch for a wintry mix from west to east behind the front. This could put down a little bit of sleet or snow for some… especially west.

– Readings by Monday morning will drop into the upper 20s.

Here’s what you need to track today’s weather…

The cold front will stall out to our south and east over the next several days. A few waves of low pressure will work along the boundary and these will throw moisture into the state. This will put down a little bit of everything. The GFS is even trying to throw down some light snow through Wednesday…

GFS Snowfall

We see how all this plays out in the coming days.

Several models also bring another system our way from the southwest by the end of the week. The GFS Ensembles…


The Canadian Model…


Then we get to the big arctic outbreak late next weekend or into the following week…


Canadian 2

I will talk more about all that after we get past today’s wild ride. Have a great Sunday. Check back for updates and take care.

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60 Responses to Cold Front Tracker Sunday

  1. BubbaG says:

    Thanks CB!

    Looks like the arctic break pushed out another week or even beyond? I will avoid further Kentucky weather comments since the Kittens losing at home again and the Packers have made me down. The arctic break’s apparent push-out has tipped the dark side.

    Let us hope the push-out does not continue into spring πŸ˜‰ Seems the only good solid models are the ones we can put together with glue πŸ˜‰

    Do kids even put models together these days?

    • Chris Bailey says:

      The arctic attack has always been slated for next weekend into the following week. There will be one arctic front later this week, but the main attack has NOT been pushed back one bit.

      • Matthew says:

        Yeah, I was sure the arctic attack was for next week. I remember this current weekend was supposed to be rainy with a front flying through Sunday. The temperatures where supposed to swing about 30 degrees from 60 ish to 30 ish. Seems to be happening.

        Now, if the next plunge happens and it gets even colder.

        And this is pretty active weather. Maybe boring from the snow angle but we need activity to have snow. Hopefully it all pans out. Tomorrow will be cold and it will be the middle of January. Maybe CB has had this for a while.

  2. Cosmokramer says:

    Next week and next weekend…, really?

    Put this winter forecast on autopilot and mail it in…..

    2nd verse, same as the first…..

    Lather, rinse, repeat….

    • Chris Bailey says:

      I’m really not sure what this means.

      • BubbaG says:

        Seems we have taken the combination of your posts out of context and summated the cold outbreak was supposed to be the middle of January.

        No harm, no foul πŸ™‚

      • BubbaG says:

        Actually, that is not even accurate, since it is not your posts directly, but the actual models that I took as pushing the cold stuff down here for mid January.

        Can’t speak for Cosmo, since he hangs out with Newman πŸ˜‰

      • Russ says:

        I think that most of us are ready to mail this stinker in. What winter?

        • Kelly in Louisville says:

          With the warm winter pattern what it is, the arctic outbreak will be a couple of days with highs near 30 and lows around 16 degrees….cold but nothing to write home about. It will quickly be followed by a return to temps in the 40’s and lows around 30. Happy to be wrong but nothing that has happened this “winter” would suggest otherwise.

  3. Mrs Robinson says:

    Thanks Chris, I’ve been reading this blog for 3 years and love it. Just wish the haters would stay on their website, not yours πŸ™‚

  4. Mike S says:

    At 3:00am, temp at Cadiz 70 degrees and dry. 25 miles west near Benton, it was 47 with 1.20″ rain since midnight.

    Crittenden county near Marion in western KY is just under 5″ rain since Thursday.

    Just started raining at my house about 3:00am. Picked up a quick half-inch.

  5. MarkLex says:

    January 1985

  6. Dan says:

    I just want another 1994!

  7. mikew says:

    How cold could it get in over the next couple of weeks?

  8. KRinRichmond says:

    When the Cats lose at home, I’m in a bad mood all weekend. Like winter, those boys need to get it in gear..

    • MarkLex says:

      Can u imagine the pressure that’s on them trying to please everyone?

      • BubbaG says:

        They have been going through this since the first home loss. Their current play may be the best they can do. No Miller’s or Freshman leaders like the previous years. Seems these kids need a floor leader to rally around and move them up another notch.

        My contacts at UK say every single kid on this team are very good kids, very courteous and try hard at school.

  9. norman ferguson says:

    those temps in the model or something else where it says -16 degrees and -30 jw cause if thats the case better wrap my water pipes up lol

  10. JJTeach says:

    Excited about tracking the cold & snow after we get through all this wet and warm today! Don’t act like you’re not excited too Bubba G πŸ˜‰

    Thanks for the update Chris!

  11. Jamie says:

    Look, I don’t comment on here much, but you people who want January ’94 again are crazy. Are you saying you WANT broken water pipes, busted heating systems, life-threatening cold down here in KY? Alaska, Montana, Minnesota, etc…. can keep their twenty below. THEY’re built for it. We’re not.

    • WendyT says:

      I’m not interested in an arctic blast either. When it gets that cold here it is usually too dry for snow. Zero degrees is nothing but miserable.

    • BubbaG says:

      I didn’t have any problems with that. I just remember shoveling out my driveway from snow at my previous house and making juuuust enough space to get out. So I thought, since the next morning the snow was like frozen ice and I had to chisel the snow around my car before I got to work. I seemed to forget I needed to turn out of the driveway so shoveled a straight line.

      Isn’t that the year 75 was closed or two days for most of Kentucky? I remember folks stranded at truck stops and not hotels available because they were full.

      • Danny says:

        Ahhhhh yes the Winter Storm of 94. Louisville Ky moderate freezing rain from 7pm to around 11:30 pm rapidly changed to snow from 11:30pm to shortly after 6am. Thunder snow it snowed 2 inches a hour for almost 7hrs straight. A .25-.50 of ice and 16 inches of snow. I-65,I-64,I-71 and the Gene Snyder Highway all shut down for days. National Guard came in to help only way to get around was a snow mobile ATV or a lifted 4 wheel drive. UPS hub shut down for 7 days. Record low temps -22. Parts of souhern Indiana -35 degrees. Water main breaks were a busting. Funny thing about the winter storm of 94 it really was our only real winter storm that year. It was a just a complete BEAST of a storm. Almost every snow plow the city of Louisville had was broke down or stuck in snow half way into that storm.

        • BubbaG says:

          THAT is the point πŸ™‚ We averaged three times per decade of big snow and a few little ones. Now at best we get a LOT of little ones and no big ones.

          • Danny says:

            It’s seems like the over achieving Alberta Clippers are the ones that give parts of KY decent snows. By decent I mean 2-5 maybe 6 inch snow’s. Unfortunately we have not seen to many Alberta Clippers either in the past few years.

  12. rolo says:

    morning, I like it BAILEY, u need to resond more to some these REDNECKS. when u get time throw it back at them.

  13. norman ferguson says:

    i agree jamie but i think some very cooler weather is much needed here in ky to kill off some of these bugs and mosquetos or how ever you spell it lol and i think it would be good for fishing to kill some the paracites in the water and stuff i think it would be harsh on some of us who aint prepared for a few days in the single digits but it will do alotta good aswell

  14. Snowluv says:

    True the real arctic push was never really forecasted to arrive until next week but I’m surprised to see that highs will rebound well into the 40’s for a few days here in indiana. That is above normal highs. Seems a lot easier to get above average highs then below avg these days.

  15. In Lincoln Co. says:

    So, I guess we are back to the usual. Rain….and then cold. But, no snow πŸ™ On the upside, maybe we will get a nice long summer break again.

  16. JJTeach says:

    Wow, I just took a peek at the Kentucky mesonet site and it showed a temp of 70 in far eastern Kentucky and a temp of 36 near Paducah. WOW!
    Now that’s what you call a big time temp gradient across the state. Looks like the 30s are inching their way through the Owensboro and Leitchfield areas right now.

  17. RhondaB says:

    I don’t know how to read the models so I look to Mr. Bailey to analyze them, and I think he does a great job of it.
    Question: CB, do you ever get to sleep any? I was up at 2 am and saw the new post, so just curious.
    Thanks for updating so often.

  18. Keith says:

    I’m seeing some signs of budding on the dogwoods and bradford
    pears. Anyone else seeing this? I’m in central Floyd Co. The earliest
    I’ve seen this. The only snow I’ve seen here was back at Halloween.
    Thanks CB for the prompt updates.

    • Ben C says:

      I was in Bowling Green Ky yesterday and saw 2 pink flowering crab apple trees in full bloom. I lived there for almost 20 years and had never seen that before. Buds yes,but never fully bloomed. We buried my grandmother yesterday there and I was one of the palbearers,and although it was raining some,it felt like late April. They even had to turn the air-conditioning on in the church. Plum silly.

    • Nate in Nicholasville says:

      We have 2 mini peach trees in our landscaping around the house, and both are LOADED with buds already. Earliest I have ever seen them with buds was last year at the end of Feb. I am concerned with all these trees and plants starting to come out, a real cold snap may do some serious damage. I think nature has really been confused these last 2 years with the extremely warm winters…

      • Kelly in Louisville says:

        Was out for a walk with the dogs a couple of nights ago and saw several creeping flox with flowers on them and a patch of snapdragons from last summer that still are blooming. Granted the snapdragons were planted right up against a house but that still shouldn’t be happening.

  19. Danny says:

    There is a real healthy shot we might be dealing with ICE after all. No not freezing rain but Black Ice is going to be a real concern this evening and into the over night hours. Plenty of moisture will still be on the roadways and might have some residual moisture left over for some freezing drizzle. Don’t be shocked by tomorrow morning that your car door and windows might be frozen that’s almost a given.

  20. Ben C says:

    No trying to ride the negativity train,but I will be so glad when mother nature quites waving that snow carrot just in front of us and decides to finally give all of us a good ole fashion knee deep snow. Something we can talk about for years to come. Past couple of winters have been so depressing. Can somebody give the old gal a kick in the keester to turn things around. Seems like every day there is “a snow storm” a week away. Before you know it,spring will be here. Same old song and dance. My Steelers are out of the playoffs,my Celtics stink,UK football..well… and now out beloved Cats

    • BubbaG says:

      But there is still beer for us, root beer for the kids, we have power, The Walking Dead comes back on next month, plenty of rain for a nice water table going into spring, etc.

      I could go on πŸ™‚ Yep, the bowl of Cinnamon Churros cereal I just ate is kicking in. Plus a 20 oz Diet Pepsi to wash it down. Yum! πŸ™‚

  21. rolo says:

    that some SERIOUS rain bnetween PADUCAH and the BGREEN, dont think EASTERN/SE/ see that as once it get here it kick on out faster hopefully.

    if not be serious flooding.

  22. Shawon says:

    Covington (at the Airport, actually) tied the record high temperature for January 13th of 66 degrees…at 2:19AM this morning.

  23. mikew says:

    Noticed wx hasnt posted in a couple days did the blog police get him?

  24. mikew says:

    Will the storms fizzle out before they reach so east ky?anybody

  25. Jeff Hamlin says:

    Jamie, just because people want snow or cold does NOT mean they want power outages, busted pipes, or car accidents. Comments like that went out when MySpace was still relevant.

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