Monday Evening Updated Update

From the better late than never files, A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect until 10pm for parts of eastern and southeastern Ky.

Winter W A

The wintry mix will slowly end over the next few hours. Take care.

Previous Update

Good Monday evening, gang. A nasty mix of sleet, snow and freezing rain is working across parts of central and eastern Kentucky this evening. This will be enough to cause some slick spots. This is round one of the wintry mix… round two arrives late Tuesday into Tuesday night.

Anyone notice the tremendous model bust on temps today? The models had it close to 40 and many areas struggled to get out of the upper 20s. The lost art in meteorology is actually looking to see if the models are verifying with their forecasts before trusting them. This is a low level cold air mass and the models are terrible in how they handle it. Blindly following a model and never looking at the actual weather is a bad thing for anyone to do. Yet, it happens… way too often.

While I’m on the subject… kudos to the NWS in Louisville for updating the forecast based on what was actually happening. Jackson decided to pretend the snow and sleet wasn’t happening and turned a blind eye (as of this writing).

The next wave of low pressure swings in later Tuesday into Tuesday night. This means another round of a wintry mix is likely for many areas. There will be more moisture to work with, so the impact may be a little greater than what we have this evening. If the models are as bad with the temps tomorrow as they were today, we may have some bigger issues.

The GFS does show freezing rain…

GFSThat’s the models way of telling us there will be a wintry mix of some kind across the state.

The big arctic plunge is full steam ahead this weekend into next week. Look at all the bitter cold and action showing up on the European Model…

Euro

Have a great evening and take care.


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27 Responses to Monday Evening Updated Update

  1. Amanda says:

    We are having freezing rain between Williamsburg and Corbin. Trees are already coated with a good layer of ice. Hope the electricity doesn’t go!

  2. teach says:

    Thanks. Hoping to see some winter in the coming days.

  3. cmchrisreece says:

    Thanks Mr. Bailey!

    The updates are fun to read. I hope that light precip reaches the south Lexinton area. :) Either way, weather rocks.

  4. RhondaB says:

    Thanks for the update, CB. Does the arctic cold have any snow chances to go with it? Or is it just dry cold?

  5. Coffeady says:

    Thanks, Chris. Right now, the current little low has had plenty of moisture to work with, judging by the look of my deck, and the small “creek” running between mine and my neighbor’s house.

  6. Todd Powers says:

    1933 and no snow or ice, just cold rain.

  7. Cosmokramer says:

    Good call on this one….waiting for round three of “this weekend and next week”. Fingers crossed….

  8. Andy Rose says:

    still plain ole rain on knox whitley border

  9. rolo says:

    nothing see,if precip was moving slow we see some trouble, but its gone out state by 9-930.

  10. rolo says:

    freezing rain in manchester up on east 80 HOLLER CURRY BRANCH, ice on care and deck.

  11. Chris Mercer says:

    Had a cold (but nice) run in Salvisa, KY (if you know where that is, bonus for you) this afternoon about 1600. 30 degrees. No precip in Anderson County today, but I’m glad to avoid the ice/sleet.

    Will be interesting to see how low temps can go. I’ve never sit it hit the single digits in Lawrenceburg without some kind of snowpack. And as of now, there is none.

  12. Russ Kennedy says:

    Chris: Love your work and the effort you invest to keep us informed. I enjoy keeping up with your periodic updates throughout the day. And I specifically liked this evening’s NWS comments. Keep up the good/GREAT work.

  13. Weatherdadof2 says:

    Power lines starting to take a bow in London. Sure wish frz rain would turn solid. Oh, NWS still says our temp will rise to 34 by 9pm. It just dropped another degree to 30 degrees.

  14. Snowlover says:

    7:45 Heavy ice mixed with snow falling in Russell and Ashland. Roads already have a layer of slushy sleet. Only rain a few miles up US 23 in Greenup.

  15. EastKyTeacher says:

    It’s pouring snow and sleet in my little neck of the woods in EKY.

  16. Muddy says:

    In Pine Knot the trees have ice sticking .

  17. KeavyMan says:

    Tree’s starting to lag some with ice here in Keavy. My car is covered in ice. Hearing reports that the roads down here are becoming slick. Use caution out there if you are in this frozen mix area. Had snow but has turned back to moderate freezing rain at this time and temps here are 29°.

    Join chat and lets talk up coming artic outbreak and the coming wintry weather.
    http://weatherforkentucky.chatango.com/

  18. BubbaG says:

    You can have the ice, fellow south of the river dwellers. Be safe.

  19. Andy Rose says:

    Looks like more disappointment for SE KY rain over the weekend followed by rain today followed by rain Tuesday

  20. UHAUL says:

    You could move.

  21. Crystal In Pikeville says:

    Chris is Pikeville or Pike under a weather advisory till midnight?

  22. Brandon says:

    Sorry if I’m lost, but when just happened the last 12 hours? My weather forecast was going to be a high of 44 with sunny weather for tomorrow, now it’s going to be 36 with 70% chance of ice to rain. Now the NAM is showing a HUGE snowstorm hitting the Memphis area with 18 inches of snow, is this the Thursday storm?

    • Ready4Snow says:

      Maybe we can get the nam and gfs to meet in the middle for thrusday system…Show us some snow love in eastern and south eastern ky…

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