Tracking Another Wintry Blast

Good Tuesday, everyone. We have another wintry blast moving into the state late today and this one will have more juice to work with. Snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain will be likely across much of the state and this could lead to some problems.

We continue to watch our stalled out front to the southeast of Kentucky. One more wave of low pressure is developing to our south and will move northeastward along the boundary tonight. There will be much more moisture available and that moisture will impact the entire state.

Low level cold air is already in place across the state. Low level cold and computer models do NOT get along very well. That’s why you saw the models busting badly with the temps and precipitation type Monday. Guess what? They will likely have similar issues with this next system. Here’s what I’m expecting…

SpecialI’m growing more concerned about a period a period of freezing rain this evening and overnight. That should set up somewhere within the wintry mix zone I’ve outlined. If that does set up… expect a significant impact for the areas affected. This will be another “nowcasting” system.

Heavy rain across far southeastern Kentucky may cause some local high water issues later tonight and Wednesday morning.

There is another storm system coming from the southwest later Thursday into Thursday night. The models are split on whether this gets far enough north to produce some snow into Kentucky. The NAM continues to be most aggressive…

NAM

I am ONLY showing that to illustrate what the model is showing. The GFS keeps it JUST to the south of the state. This may end up being a very close call and another thing for us to keep an eye on.

The first in a series of arctic fronts arrives this weekend as the big temp plunge begins. The core of the coldest anomalies are forecast to settle into or region by Monday and Tuesday…

GFSThere will be snow systems associated with the ice box next week. Remember… forecast the pattern and worry about the details as we get closer. If we can put some snow on the ground this weekend or early next week… temps could go below zero.

I will have updates as needed. I will also have rapid fire thoughts via twitter. @kentuckyweather

Have a great day and take care.


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50 Responses to Tracking Another Wintry Blast

  1. Brandon says:

    If I’m correct, the last map would mean a possible snowstorm with about -5 degrees?

    • Joey Wilson says:

      Not sure about that. Usually, brutal cold for us means very dry conditions with no snow storms from the south. The exception is an Alberta clipper which come from the north and I’ve seen them produce up to 3″ of snow for KY before, but that’s been several years. Typically, they give us an inch or less.

      • Lincoln says:

        Colder air+clipper=Higher snow ratios. Which can suddenly make a clipper a big deal, though unlikely as you said be aide cold air for us tends to be uneventful

  2. spencerlady says:

    Another grocery run…lots of hot chocolate and coffee coming up! Waking up to low 20′s this morning near Taylorsville.

  3. KeavyMan says:

    Waking up to 30° here in Keavy and ice everywhere. Looks pretty on the tree’s once the daylight comes out. Looks like we are in store for heavy rain/mix again tonight. I seen in Ohio yesterday where Cincy is expecting temps for highs next week as cold as 0° Cincy is not all that far away from us down here. I am thinking we just may see highs in the mid teens here in SE Ky. Any input?

  4. LD says:

    As of yesterday evening, we had the first official winter precipitation event in Berea. Granted, it was sleet but it was enough to completely encase my car in ice.

    I-75 last night, at least in Madison, was ridiculously treacherous about 630 PM last night. It was sleeting at a pace that was covering the lines on the road. Luckily, it quit for good about 20 minutes later (despite huge radar signatures to the contrary) or we’d have been looking at wrecks everywhere.

  5. Danny says:

    Winter Weather Advisory just south and SE of Louisville. You folks in Louisville should of been included and prolly will by afternoon. I feel the area between E-town and Louisville there dominant precip type might be freezing rain.

  6. BubbaG says:

    Ice for these events as expected, but more south than expected. Let us all be thankful the systems are moving through relatively fast so not to accumulate too much.

    It would rock big time to see great snow chances, but looks dry going into next week and if that arctic cold sets in, it will stay relatively dry. We need a clipper or similar non southern fed event.

    The one good thing is any mositure that finds its way through would be very efficient for snow rations. Catch is the air would be dry, so a lot of that stuff might not hit the ground.

    The one nice positive is if the real cold air sets in for several days, it will helps reduce bug infestation chances for spring/summer. Two warm winters in a row is an ecosystem breading ground.

  7. BubbaG says:

    moisture ratios

  8. Chris Mercer says:

    Places like Jackson, TN are in the Mid 20′s right now and expecting 1/2 inch of ice today. No thanks. I’ll keep my virga storms like yesterday instead of that!

  9. jeanette says:

    Amazed at how wrong the local temp forecast has been. I’m not looking forward to ice here in Etown. Love the cold though.

  10. Bernard P. Fife says:

    The NWS is forecasting temps for monticello in the 40′s for Sunday & still in the mid 30′s on Monday, are they not picking up on what Chris is seeing?

  11. MikeM says:

    According to the snow map Thur and Thgur Night Northern Alabama and Mississippi as well as Tennessee are looking at a lot of snow. Why these systems continue to skirt north, east, south and west of Central Ky just blows my mind.

    • Todd says:

      Yep the dome is flexing its muscle in Ncentral KY always a few counties to the east, south, west, north, some things never change?

  12. rolo says:

    folks this is poerfect setup for us to get SNOW with the southern system and cold air in place, but WE STILL CANT GET IT!! UNREAL!!

    old school tracking but 3-4 degrees to warm at the surface, tonite we get 8-10 inches of snow if only few degrees colder, but no its going flood.

    I saw this setting up and it does and still not cold enough. the Thursdayu system will stay to fuer to south look like.

  13. bjenks says:

    Chris…Thanks for the update. The late Dec. (Xmas – New Year) storms all tracked further North and West once all the models came around. Each one Lou. was suppose to get the heavier precip (snow) and each one just missed us as Southern IN. received the most. Hopefully the NAO goes neg and allows the Thurs system to take a more Northern track. As of right now this storm will just head east, out to sea, giving our Southern countys and states a nice snow/ice event. Have a great day everyone and THINK SNOW.

  14. chris in etown says:

    Chris,

    NWS issued the WWA for 1-3″ sleet only. They dont mention frz rain once in that product. What are the chances lower atmosphere warms slightly to allow for frz rain at the surface, turning this into a ice event? Do you see that happening? If so, can you map where? Thanks!

  15. Todd says:

    Chris has south east KY in play for snow Thursday? Temps in Frankfort area are forecast for low to mid 40′s on Thursday, how does it snow south of us while we sit in the mid 40′s??

  16. sue(Flatwoods,KY) says:

    We want a good snow so my boys can get out and enjoy it, my 10 yr old twins have never had a REALLY good snow to play in, TWC has our forcast as 40′s Wed- Fri and 51 Sat!!! REALLY!!!!!! Give us cold and snow please!!!!!! LOL Thanks for all your hard work Chris!!!!!!

  17. bjenks says:

    By the looks of the National Weather Service Enhanced Radar Image the moisture coming out of Texas is moving straight in Kentucky’s direction. We might be now casting later this afternoon into the evening. Hope the models are incorrect on temps as they were yesterday. THINK SNOW!!! or ICE???

  18. Lincoln says:

    Lexington may get a couple inches tonight after all, what do you know? NWS has it down as 2 inches.Need to get bread and milk!! Lol

  19. rolo says:

    the mositiure moving more NE/E than it was yesterday system, meaning could be wintry futher s/se in ky tonite.

  20. eyewall says:

    Per NWS Louisville, for Central KY:

    MAIN IMPACT: A NARROW EAST TO WEST ORIENTED BAND OF 2 TO 4 INCH
    SLEET TOTALS CURRENTLY IS FORECAST FROM AROUND AND EAST OF THE
    HARRODSBURG AND DANVILLE AREAS. ELSEWHERE…1 TO 2 INCHES OF
    SLEET ARE FORECAST.

    Memphis and North Mississippi are going to get hammered with ice today.

  21. In Lincoln Co. says:

    Sorry if I missed this somewhere but, about what time is this all expected to start?

  22. In Lincoln Co. says:

    Thanks…just worried about school runs.

  23. Todd says:

    Their must be going to be a sharp northward cutoff by the looks of the advisory area, although a 70% chance of a wintry mix is forecast for Frankfort, no advisory?

  24. prelude says:

    Im going to give it my best shot, south and south central KY sleet to freezing rain points north of that will be sleet changing to light snow I think the further north you go the less freezing rain. The models have continued to come in colder since late last night and that trend has continued.

    • Nate in Nicholasville says:

      I see what you are saying, but not sure it will end up that way. The colder SURFACE temps don’t mean it will all fall as sleet or snow, its the UPPER air temp that dictates more of that, and this being a southern system, it will have plenty of Warm Air Aloft. That being said, I still don’t think it will be a big deal, other than some travel impacts (not a fan of losing my electric :) ), since it is a pretty fast moving system and not a HUGE precip producer for this area (LEX)…And I do think some of this will fall as sleet, I guess I am just a bit more pessamistic that more of it than not will come as freezing rain….just my $.02 though….

  25. Tom in Rockcastle says:

    Good news and bad. The good news as soon as the moisture got overhead it fell from the sky. Bad news, it is 29 degrees and it is falling as rain.The radar does indeed show me in the pink so there is a Update from NW Rockcastle

  26. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks, Chris. Last night was kind of a surprise to me. I know that there was a slim possibility, but, those big silver dollar sized snowfalkes sure were beautiful. They just didn’t last long enough. Maybe with the colder weather the snow chances will increase, although I am like BubbaG in that I do not want to see the “I” word. Just happy to finally see some snow flakes bigger than a pin head! ;)
    Guess we will see how tonight plays out. Already got the long johns ready for next week. Have a great Tuesday, everyone, and GO CATS!!! BEAT Tennessee!!! Please! ;)

  27. Marie says:

    OK, BubbaG, I think its time for the link to the “Ice, Ice, Baby” video to be posted so we can all get into the swing of things around here. :)

  28. chrisbEtown says:

    what are the chances this becomes more frz rain instead of the 1-2″ of sleet LMK currently is forecasting for its WWA area?

  29. chrissomerset says:

    Seems odd that NWS in Jackson doesn’t have anything for thw Somerset -London area, no WWA no flood watch, not even a special weather statement. Is Somerset not getting anything at all? CBhas Pulaski county on the line of wintry mix?

  30. chrisbEtown says:

    Well, some forecasters have said an upgrade to ICE STORM WARNING appears likely for areas near bg/wk pkwys. Get your generators ready!

  31. Teacher in B.G. says:

    Schools closing 1 to 2 hours early in BG area..

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