A Nasty Mix Moving In

Good afternoon everyone. We have a nasty storm system pushing into the state this afternoon and it will bring a round of ice, mix and heavy rain to much of the state. I’m becoming more and more concerned many areas will get in on a moderate period of freezing rain. This could lead to a decent ice event for some areas.

The soundings strongly suggest freezing rain, but are close to showing more of a mix of sleet and freezing rain. The more sleet, the better. That stuff just bounces around. Freezing rain collects on everything.

Temps this afternoon are doing what we expected… running way below what the models are forecasting. Another thing to keep in mind is we have now been below freezing for much of the past few days. That has allowed the ground and road temps to come way down.

A Winter Weather Advisory is out for parts of the state, though I don’t think nearly enough counties are included in this. A Flood Watch has also been issued across far southeastern Kentucky. Here’s a look…

WarningsI suspect the National Weather Service will be expanding that advisory to include several more counties. This may even become a borderline Winter Storm Warning if the freezing rain threat is realized.

I will have updates as needed on the blog and on WKYT-TV. It’s a Severe Weather Alert Day and that means I will be giving you live updates, at least, every hour.

Have a great rest of the day and take care.

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96 Responses to A Nasty Mix Moving In

  1. Todd says:

    Temp has reached 32 in east Frankfort that is a few degrees warmer than yesterday this time, so 36 is not out of the question here, that was the predicted temp for today!

  2. bgbecky says:

    Where is the most likely area for freezing rain and winter storm warning?

  3. chrisbEtown says:


    when is your map coming out for qpf types and amounts?

  4. Mike S says:

    Perhaps an Ice Storm warning, CB.
    For those not issued an Advisory, treat the situation like it does exist.
    You don’t have to wait for an Advisory to be issued to decide whether you will drive sensibly or not.

  5. Andy Rose says:

    Woohoo more 34 degree rain

  6. Aaron C. says:

    Here’s something for the scientists and forecasters to chew on from what happened yesterday—–after the heavy sleet moved in, there was actually a period of light rain (don’t know for how long, estimate about 15 minutes,) which melted off the sleet in combination with the warmer ground. It was probably hovering right around freezing the whole time, but it never really froze like ice. Seems if we want to get sleet here in Rich, a heavy band of precip would have to form over the area and stay here for any heavier accumulations of it.

    • LD says:

      I know the phenomenon you’re discussing. It started sleeting as well in Berea (like a friggin’ monsoon of sleet, never seen anything like it before) but then it started raining as well and the the sleet started sticking to the car parked in the drive. It resulted in an ice entombed car with in a couple of hours. I’d say the ice is about 1/8″ thick. So, it seems you don’t technically need “freezing rain” to end up with the same results. You just need a moist surface for the sleet to stick to and melt a little.

  7. Weatherdadof2 says:

    So are temps expected to remain where they are at onset of precip or will wet bulbing occur?

  8. Coffeady says:

    Cloudy here in Somerset at this time with a temp of 33 where I am. Sky looks like it could open up and snow any moment. Also a light breeze and a very damp cold day.

  9. Tom N Lincoln says:

    Here in eastern Lincoln co. its 30 degrees and a cold cold rain. Yes, I did say rain and 30 degrees. Hey mother nature wheres my snow at!

  10. Todd says:

    NWS earlier said a thin band in central or south central ky could get 4 inches of sleet, that is a lot of sleet, that much moisture would be a lot of snow if it fell in that form, maybe 8 inches or more?

    • Ben C says:

      You are correct. Just turned on my weather radio and said even Lexington could get 4″ of sleet. At least 2″ they just said. Watch out for flooding south. Why the heck can we not get snow. Nothing I can imagine is worse than ice. Ugg

  11. Pat says:

    NOAA is calling for 2 to 4 inches of sleet in some areas and 1 to 2 inches inother areas. I don’t ever recall 4 inches of sleet at anytime in my 54 years.

    • Todd says:

      Late 1960’s their was a event in Frankfort of 2 or 3 inches of sleet and freezing rain, I remember skating on our front yard like is was a frozen pond.

      • MarkLex says:

        I don’t think 4 inches of sleet is even possible! I say that because when there was a winter storm warning for our area a couple of years ago, it sleeted here in lexingon pretty heavily for hours! It was even hitting the windows making all kinds of noise. It was night time and it was below freezing, later, it started freezing rain and I think we ended up having somewhat of an ice storm, but nothing compared the past ice storms. Even though it sleeted heavily for hours, it didn’t seem to accumate like freezing rain or snow would have It’s hard for sleep to accumulate I suppose, because it was temp in the mid-20’s throughout I believe.

        • MarkLex says:

          Sleet – not sleep.

          • Todd says:

            Agree, December 2004 storm that hammered southern ind and west KY, it sleeted heavy for 12 hours or more in Frankfort and we got about a 1in maybe a little more over that many hours! 4 inches would be historic!

            • c-BIV says:

              I am in NE end of Louisville and I can verify the 2004 Dec. 24th Winter Storm put down over 3″ of sleet and 8″ snow! It is possible. But, it would have to come down extremely heavy for a 10 hour period to get this. I remember the local MET’s saying if it was all snow, we would have ended up with a total of nearly 2 ft!! This gives you an idea of just how much precip would be falling to achieve 2-4″ of sleet!

  12. According to my car, it’s 32 degrees here in Owensboro. It’s cloudy with a cold wind blowing. For anyone who doesn’t mind answering, any thoughts on if the freezing rain potential will get this far north? Thanks in advance 🙂

  13. MikeM says:

    It was 30 degrees at the bank in Versailles at 1:00. Normally it’s. degree or two higher than actual. Can’t believe we have to trade snow for freezing rain and sleet. Central Ky weather at its best.

  14. eyewall says:

    Icing at The Grove at Ole Miss:


  15. Cole in McCreary says:

    We still have ice in the trees and 32 here, with light rain and sleet mixing in, as of yet still no advisory for here.

  16. Todd says:

    33 in Frankfort, can see sun through the clouds!

  17. Andrew says:

    Chris tweeted a few mins ago that Ice Storm Warnings may go up for parts of the state. Not what ANYONE wants.

  18. BubbaG says:

    Curse my keen skills of hillbilly forecasting! Ok, it was dumb luck, but looks like the ice prediction might pan out….

    Ice, ice, Baby! 🙁

    Warm air might kick us where the sun don’t shine again, but in a more brutal fashion instead of cold rain.

    Let us hope for more sleet and higher temps. Cold rain on cold ground is of course Vanilla Ice. Boo to Vanilla and the ice.

  19. rolo says:

    moving fast enough that there not be any SEVERE ICIONG, now places will get rough road conditions etc but the precip moving FAST, so dont letthe weather people have u thinking its a FULL BLOWN MAJIOR ICE STORM.

    as far as my area just a colld rain,,, nothing see here in S/SE KY 37 degrees. in MANCHESTER.

  20. Weatherdadof2 says:

    32 degrees in London….wondering what’s going to happen.

  21. rolo says:

    u all need to report ur conditions for BaAILEY as lot virga out there again right now.

    so cmon report ur weather!!!!

  22. CHELLE says:

    Hey Rolo, how are you doing? Well I hope. 🙂 Where is Chris talking about the ICE STORM WARNING setting up? I’m just a few miles south of Lexington.

    • pattyversailles says:

      Hey Chelle!! Chris put that out on his Tweeter feeds. You also can catch the feeds rolling at the top right hand side of this page. You’ll probably see it roll by.

  23. Joyce says:

    I am showing 30 degrees on my car in Burgin.

  24. Ben C says:

    31° with heavy cloud cover in SW Lexington. Waiting…….

  25. Chris Mercer says:

    I hope the Ice Storm warning is not for central Kentucky. Don’t want any part of that.

  26. MarkLex says:

    That cam view out of ole miss didn’t look that bad from what I could tell. The trees weren’t stressed looking at all to me.

  27. Aaron C. says:

    As Chris posted, Winter Storm Warnings going up for areas in Bowling Green towards Lexington. Live in Madison co here…we are going to be on the fringe of the warning it looks like—although more counties may be added/removed depending upon where the precip sets up based on nowcasting.

    • BubbaG says:

      When have we ever not been?

      Considering this is event is mainly supposed to be ice stuff, the fringe is better in theory than the warning area.

  28. MarkLex says:

    Wow – A winter storm warning for Lexington until 9 am tomorrow, followed by partly sunny and 40 degrees tomorrow afternoon.

  29. Wayne says:

    32 degrees in Hopkinsville. VERY CLOUDY and ominous but no precipitation. Some schools have let out early and I may be following suit. I don’t mess with potential ice.

  30. Debbie says:

    Well, speaking from Bardstown/Nelson Co…..we can expect the WORST! LOL! We always get the ice while areas not even 7 miles northward towards L-Ville get all the SNOW! 🙁 It pees me off whenever I read posts from ppl in Jeff. Co. whine & moan about how THEY NEVER get any snow……perfect example was Dec 22, 2004….we had a crippling ice storm here, while not even 12 miles headed towards the Ville, it snowed almost a FOOT! I KNOW, because we had to make a trek down to my mom’s workplace in Okolona to pick up her paycheck, as her idiot boss, in a hurry to get to Panama City, left them on their machines instead of mailing them??! Whaa??! We had ice until we almost got into Bullitt Co., then it was snow, snow & more snow til we got to the building….Mom had a key to the gate…the lock was frozen…we got it unfroze with 3 lighters going…couldn’t get the gate open because we had to use our hands to scrape about 10″ of snow/ice glaze away…get to the building & another frozen lock…finally get in, and guess what?? NO PAYCHECKS to be found! WTH???! We come home and as we make the exit to Bardstown, we slide into a big snowbank, get stuck…finally some NICE PERSON w/ a 4×4 helped us get out…..we get home, check the mail, and guess what’s in the mailbox??! 🙁 Needless to say, the boss got WAILED ON pretty well when they went back to work! 🙂

  31. Tom says:

    Anyone notice the temp on Black mountain is in the mid 40’s, if that is any indication of the temp profile then I do not believe sleet will play much of a factor in this event, meaning areas that stay below freezing will be dealing with freezing rain and mainly freezing rain. Which simply put, a freaking ice storm with the potential to down trees, power lines, etc… could be a real possibility.

  32. MarkLex says:

    I’m trying to remember having an ice storm of the past where it was sunny and 40 the following day. It usually took days to warm up or clear out after one.

  33. Rickie says:

    Here in Jenkins (letcher co.) temps anywhere from 35-38 with rain all day long. The mountain tops are getting iced over on the trees, with temps around 33 and the fog is really thick. Visibility very low.

  34. KeavyMan says:

    Freezing rain and 32° here in Keavy area. Woke up this morning with a lot of tree’s bowing just a little. If sun had been out, it would have been blinding. Sitting back waiting to see what is going to happen here in laurel County since teps are freezing or lower.

    Chatroom is always opened. Come in and chat and tell us were you are and what is it doing at your house.


  35. DougT10 says:

    Temps here in East Laurel County (Bush) around 6am was 33 now it’s reading 35 and cold rain ice has formed on trees and bushes but not on the cars. Same old weather as always nothing to write home about.

  36. rolo says:

    good news as already stated system moving at pretty fas t clip, cause fact is there going be HIGH WATER in SE KY, be roads covered etc, but should be fine by early tomm as this precip be thru and goner by midnight..

    its just a AVERAGE winter weather/rain event,, but if u didnt know anybetter u think it wasd a HURRICANE SANDY as the locval media etc acting crazxy.

    well not all the media. if we EVERY do get a REAL SERIOUS winter storm I hate see the coverage, they have to put arm security at the grocery stores etc.lollllllllllllllllllllll

  37. Aaron C. says:

    Seems like just a plain rain in Rich. Not hearing that familiar “clinking” sound of freezing rain. There’s no ice in it…unless my eyes are deceiving me.

    • Emerson Biggins says:

      Thats because freezing rain is actually rain that freezes on contact, no ice in it. If it had ice it would be sleet, hence the making “clicking” sound.

  38. Mae says:

    no ice or freezing rain in lily just rain

  39. Rachel says:

    Lexington is now in the Winter Storm Warning area… and it’s for up to a half inch accumulation of ice and sleet 🙁 That’s NOT the kind of winter storm warning we want to be in! We want SNOW, not ICE!

  40. Joe T says:

    The Lake Cumberland Weather Service has issued a Cold Arse Rain Advisory for Pulaski County. At 4:20 PM NWS radar indicated cold arse rain occuring in the same places it has since 1998. Radar returns indicate that a Cold Arse Rain Warning may be issued in the near future. Improving conditions are expected after the moisture causing the Cold Arse Rain ejects to the east and fridgid dry air takes its place. We may then issue a Colder than S%$t advisory until the moisture and warm air returns…….beeeep beeeeep beeeep

  41. Aaron C. says:

    There might be a few more ice pellets now. Still all liquid, and the water is rolling off the cars. If it’s freezing rain, it’s doing so very slowly. Temps must be marginal right now.

  42. spencerlady says:

    Winter Weather Advisory for Spencer & Jefferson Counties until 9:00 a.m. Wednesday. This came out via text at 2:46 this afternoon. It will be interesting to see how this pans out ….

  43. Aaron C. says:

    That post didn’t make any sense. It’s all liquid from the way it “looks” but I do hear somewhat more of a “clinking” sound, but no visible evidence of freezing yet. Will take a look again in an hour or so and see what has transpired.

  44. spencerlady says:

    Radar is showing lots of pretty colors!

  45. Weatherdadof2 says:

    Nice ice accumulation on trees in London.

  46. Joe T says:

    33 degrees and raining in Somerset. Where have we seen this before? Anyone who claims the center of the Dome is anywhere but Pulaski County is crazy. Always on the warm side of southern fed systems, too far west to get any elevation help with upslope events. Ground zero for cold, crappy, and wet winter weather!!

  47. chrisbEtown says:

    Interesting….LMK NWS office has increased qpf again for even more freezing rain for hardin county to ICE STORM WARNING Criteria:

    Freezing rain and sleet likely, possibly mixed with snow before 4am, then a chance of snow and freezing rain. Cloudy, with a low around 31. Northeast wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total nighttime ice accumulation of 0.6 to 0.8 of an inch possible. Total nighttime snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

  48. dawnp007 says:

    LOL. I would like for someone at the NWS to come look at my yard and trees and tell me that is just RAIN here in Annville! Psht…..

  49. Jeff Hamlin says:

    Rolo I can’t believe the way you talk on here…..you change your mind about the weather more than I change my clothes.

  50. Aaron C. says:

    Well, so far this looks like yet another nasty, cold rain event for Rich. Wonder if north of the river is getting anything different?

  51. Rachel says:

    Lexington/Frankfort must be sitting smack in the middle of a dry slot (aka; The Dome) right now because there’s not a drop of precipitation falling from the sky in any form…

    • Chris Mercer says:

      I am LOVING this dry slot moving towards Lawrenceburg. Everyone else wishing for precip can keep the ice. Lived in Lexington in 2003 and Western KY in 2009. I’ve seen enough ice for a lifetime.

      33.3 degrees, cloudy, and DRY here. This is one Winter Storm Warning I want to Bust!

      • Manteno says:

        Dry here in Versailles, hope it stays that way! Unfortunately I think this is how it started in January of ’09, nothing at bedtime then woke up the next morning with no power and a tree on my car.

  52. Ramsey says:

    Include Shelbyville in the dome. Not a drop here and 31 degrees.

  53. Michael P. Boyle County says:

    Freezing Rain with accumulation in trees power lines mailboxes etc. 32*
    Boyle County

  54. cdjbook says:

    33.5 degrees, rain in Morehead…temps have dropped from 36.6 since 4:30 . No mix yet…love hearing all of the updates! Keep us weather lovers posted about your area!! 🙂

  55. Aaron C. says:

    Rain starting to freeze in Richmond. Curved lines on the windshield in spider-web like designs are telling me it’s starting to form a thin layer.

  56. Chris Mercer says:

    Nothing in Lawrenceburg. Temp down to 32.5. Will update after UK beats UT!

  57. BubbaG says:

    Ice now accumulating on metal surfaces.

  58. Snoluvr says:

    Dry in southern Jefferson county. Car shows temp at 35.

  59. Weatherdadof2 says:

    And WHY is Laurel County not in an advisory/warning or SOMETHING? 32 degrees..pouring rain….pine tree limbs starting “the lean” on power lines. Is anyone with NWS on here?

  60. mikew says:

    Why no advisory for knox co wkyt app forcast 31 all night with freezing rain but no wwa advisory whats with that?it hasnt got above 32 today

  61. Kris says:

    Dry as a bone up here in Boone County (northern KY)! Looks like that heavy band of precip followed 71 along and just south of the river into extreme Southern Boone, Kenton and Campbell County. The 71/75 split looks like it was the northern cutoff, and boy was it one of the sharpest I have ever seen! Keep up the great blog posts, you have many viewers outside of the Lexington area, word is spreading! 🙂 Cinci weather people are too conservative.

  62. Ready4Snow says:

    Gfs looked to have moved ever so slightly north and stronger regarding thrusday’s system…So close yet so far away…Anyway’s if model’s keep there known trend’s maybe we see the trend north starting…So far western North Carolina looks to get a good snow…

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