Saturday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, my fellow weather weenies. The arctic express forecast remains on track for the coming week and the only thing we need to do is iron out the details. Let’s get started in getting a bit more detailed.

We know about the first blast of cold coming in tomorrow. This knocks our temps from today’s 50s to the upper 20s to mid 30s Sunday. The next system dives in on Monday with a period of light snow and snow showers. Winds will be gusty and temps will crash during the afternoon and evening.The air behind that will make Tuesday the coldest day around here in 3 years.

A clipper will swing into town Tuesday night and Wednesday with a swath of light snow likely. The GFS Ensembles…


That brings a reinforcing shot of arctic air that continues through Thursday. This will set the stage for a developing area of low pressure to form across the southern Plains. This storm is likely to shoot eastward across the Tennessee Valley by Friday. I know the GFS is trying to cut the storm to the lakes, but it’s the GFS. Storms don’t just cut through arctic air. They find the path of least resistance and go that route. Unfortunately, too many people take EXACTLY what the last run of the GFS shows and run with it. Why? Ask them. 😉

The European Model has a better handle today…Euro

The air coming in behind that storm has the chance to produce colder temps than what we have this Tuesday. There is a lot of Brr to the weather next week and beyond.

Have a great rest of your day and take care.

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57 Responses to Saturday Afternoon Update

  1. Coffeady says:

    Thank, Chris. Lets get this winter party started!

    • KeavyMan says:

      I agree. Let’s get this party started and it doesn’t even have to be a Saturday Night. LOL I am so past ready for an old time snow (storm). Old time meaning something greater than 8″. I miss them winters in Columbus, Ohio.

      • Nate in Nichoasville says:

        Ah yes, Ohio winters! I grew up an hour north of Columbus, and right before we moved here in 2007, we were buried under 22in of snow in about 36 hours…Those were good times! The whole town was pretty much shut down for 3 days!

  2. KeavyMan says:

    I’m liking what I am seeing Chris. Looking good for finally a shot of a real true winter. I have heard talk about this upcoming system, next weekend, could possibly become more than just a snowfall. I have heard, through the grapevine, that next weekend storm could possibly become a MAJOR WINTER STORM or even worse. I ain’t saying the B word just yet myself. Hoping you see this and well let us know your thoughts about this.


  3. KeavyMan says:

    Don’t forget the chat-room. Lets chat about the upcoming arctic and snow chances.

    Hope to see Chris join us when he can. So, lets chat what Chris is seeing and what we might have heard and iron all this out. BE POSITIVE though cause I am desperate need of WINTER LOL

  4. rolo says:

    exactly BAILEY southern plains storm will ride the edge of the cold air, meaning were it makes it south is were the storm will ride. PERFCECT FOR OLD SCHOOL

    got my OLD SCHOOL SHIRT out and my other gear cause folks thisd aint set uyp that misses, only miss we get would be PRECIP not there, cause there be no ICE,RAIN OR SNOW. it be ALL SNOW as i stated this morning.

    yes temps as always will spike with a storm cioming inhere, but with ASRTIC air it will not spike to high to keep from snow. when u got ALL LAYERS COLD u get snow falling at 34-35 degrees. that a FGGGGGOOOOOOD snowing temp, then BOOM temps will fall back to single digits or below after 12-14 inches on ground. ohh its coming DADDY!!!

    TX BAILEY!! forgive my typinfg i aint proof reading, u rednecks can sifher my post!!!

    • Woodsman says:

      If any part of Kentucky besides the eastern mountains sees a foot of snow this winter I’ll eat crow.

    • MikeM says:

      I thought you gave up on snow.

      • MikeM says:

        Rolos quote from 1/17
        this one has finally busted my FAITH, I give up folks.

        now u get CLIPPER MANIA which as far as winter goes will be fun with inch here and inch there, but this one had makinghs of a BIG DADDY.

    • Pat says:

      Just wondering Rolo, what the heck does sifher mean? I’m a life long Kentuckian, but I’ve never hear that term before. I will wait and see how badly my joints hurt Thursday and what signs the birds give off before I’ll but into the “BIG” one. I had around a dozen robins in my front yard on Friday and that is really early for them to be showing up already. I’ve always looked fofr their return and dead skunks on the road to tell me spring is not to far away.

      • Andrew says:


        My guess anyway! 🙂

      • BonnieLex says:

        Short for decipher. He spelled it the way some of us say it 🙂 I’ve been reading the blog for years but don’t post often – but one thing is for sure – it wouldn’t be the same without Rolo!

    • bjenks says:

      And Now enter LUCY!!!!!!!

      • BubbaG says:

        Yep. Folks need to think of the trend and not kick. If we finally get a result, THEN you can let your guard down some and kick.

        Based on the rolling trend, best to not let your guard down and oblige Lucy.

        For folks that do, let all the air out of your lungs before your back hits the ground. Easier to breath after you fall 😉

  5. Joey Wilson says:

    Gotta hand it to Chris. The Louisville NWS afternoon discussion does a good job of summarizing how the models have mis-read the coming cold and how it will NOT warm up Thursday and Friday as they’d been forecasting. They’re hinting that the Thurs/Friday low pressure will go to our south and put KY in line for a snow…just as Chris has been saying! This could be a GREAT setup for a thumper snow! Looking like a fun weather week!

  6. JJTeach says:

    Looking forward to the coming week and all the cold & snow chances that are coming with it!!
    Would love to put a light coating of snow on the ground Tuesday night and Wednesday just to wet our appetite for something possibly bigger and better for the end of the week 😉

  7. Chris Mercer says:

    Chris, a question? How often is the 7-day forecast on KYT’s website updated? And who puts it out? Right now it has 40’s for next weekend and the NWS has lower 30’s. First time I can remember the NWS being more bullish on the cold than you! Somehow, I think that forecast posted on WKYT is not your current thinking.

  8. Tonya Harris says:

    And while we’re all talking about arctic air and the possibility of a good snow–remember to stock up on supplies in case we get snowed in. Remember to leave your water pipes dripping if it gets really cold and you think the water is going to freeze off. Nothing is worse than having a water pipe freeze and bust, and then not be able to get out to the hardware store because the roads are too bad.

    • Chris Mercer says:

      Tonya I agree on the water pipes but I can’t remember being “snowed in” since 1994. I seriously doubt that will happen this time.

      • MikeM says:

        We can only hope. 🙂

      • Tonya Harris says:

        I never say never when it comes to stuff like that–I’ll jinx myself if I do. It would be just my luck that the one time I said to myself “the weather’s not going to get that bad” would be the time I would be unprepared.

  9. Todd says:

    Not ready to jump on any storm hype until a few more days, been snake bit to many times from this far out, the cold is coming, but storm threat for late week will be a day to day thing for me!

  10. Danny says:

    Just like I said the NWS out of Louisville was trending colder and now there forecast is calling for flurries and light snow right through the week. No 40’s in there forecast at all!!! All 20’s and 30’s for highs.

    • Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

      I hope that low does not press too far south.

      • Danny says:

        Time will tell, the cold will be in place that’s pretty much a given. Snow showers/flurries off and on is a given as far as the system late in the week thats the big question. The GFS is counting on the weak warm-up for Thursday and Friday before temps fall again. GFS is going to be the outlier with no support. Im thinking the GFS is going to go with the Euro eventually. The GFS ensembles is not agreeing with the GFS model it to favors the colder Euro.

  11. Cosmokramer says:

    Sifher = cipher (Beverly Hillbillies) = decipher = “to figure out”

    Following WKYT weather and Chris Bailey is like putting your money in the bank for 1% and then taking out a loan at the same bank for 7%….it doesn’t make any sense.

    Chris Bailey forecasts light snow, but 90% of the comments here are talking big snow, old school, and the B word. I love snow and this site provides plenty of hope and hype. The Lexington stations are so boring to watch regarding forecasts.

    KWC is kinda like reality tv shows; very entertaining, but not always the true story. The true story would be too boring. At this point, any snow would be great.

  12. bjenks says:

    The set up leading us into the last two weeks of Jan and most, if not all of Feb will be fun to watch. All the Indicies are pointing toward a very cold, if not figid pattern for the midwest, ohio valley, and NEastern US. Bring on the cold and THINK SNOW!!!! After today we may not see above freezing temps for some time. Talking only for the Lou area and points to our North. Southern Temps will increase to above freezing for a day or two, but that is about it.

  13. Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

    Test is my comments being lost in the cosmos.

  14. Go Cards says:

    Well we lost to Syracuse. Good game though. Maybe we can beat them at the Carrier Dome later this year. They were the better team today.

  15. Johnny says:

    All we will get is cold temps folks. No snow.

  16. vinny says:

    Hey coach Cal, hire someone, ANYONE, that can teach these young men how to block out…! It’s getting old…

    Back to weather:
    Come on spring….. NO MORE COLD PLEASE…

  17. rolo says:

    yea what ANDREW said sipher desphier hell u get it eventually.

    OLD SCHOOL rollllll on…

    • Johnny says:

      Flipflopper, you said last week it was going to be an Old School event. If you were a baseball player, your average would be .000. But I do enjoy your posts.

  18. Ready4Snow says:

    If the Friday system verifies and we get a thumping, kudos to the GFS…It had this storm pegged 9 day’s out…Hopefully the system keep’s showing up where it’s at and finally start to make a more northerly shift the last day or so…We don’t want to be in the bull’s eye this early…Oh how i wish it was Wednesday…..

  19. Aaron C. says:

    Preliminary maps are drawn. Waiting for higher confidence before I post them here. Stands to reason, however, that the northern 2 thirds of the state (Pikeville across to Owensboro) might see snow from it.

  20. Tyler says:

    Wow, the 00z GFS starts to play a completely different game…….trending colder and more snow for the Ohio Valley!!

    • Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

      A decent run for the cincy area. Lou & lex sleet and fz. rain. Points south all green(rain). The trend is good. But cannot get excited I have been drowned too many times by water falling out of the skies. Another model with false promises. I am not going to think with my heart this time.

  21. dawnp007 says:

    yep… snow for us right

  22. Bill L says:

    Sleet and freezing rain for Louisville…what!!?

  23. Arch R says:

    Great. I’m heading down to North Carolina next Friday morning. Well…maybe heading down depending on the weather.

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