The Arctic Invasion Begins

Good Sunday to one and all. The much advertised arctic outbreak has invaded the country and will take aim on the bluegrass state over the next few days. This will bring some of the coldest air in three years to the commonwealth. It will also give us several shots of snow during the week ahead.

The first cold front swings through here today. It’s a tad later in arriving and that may allow temps to warm into the mid and upper 30s for afternoon highs before it blows through here. Winds are going to be very gusty and the wind chill will be way down. Track today’s temps….

The next system swings in on Monday and will deliver the real deal arctic air. Winds are going to gust to 30mph and this will make it feel closer to zero at times. We’re likely to see a round of light snow and snow showers working across the region. The Hi Res NAM and NAM are doing a great job in picking up on this action…

NAM 1

NAM 2

That will usher in frigid air for Tuesday. Lows will hit the single digits for some and highs will stay in the upper teens and low 20s across the entire state. Throw in a gusty wind and it will fee below 0 at times.

A clipper will roll southeastward toward the state Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. That should produce a swath of light snow. The NAM is all over it…

NAM 3

That reinforces the arctic air for the second half of the week. That’s when we turn our attention toward a storm that is likely to form and track just to our south. The trend on the models is going the direction we said it would… colder. It’s very hard to dislodge an arctic air mass like the one setting up across our part of the world. Even the GFS is beginning to catch on to that idea and no longer shows a storm into the Great Lakes.

The GFS Ensembles give you a smoothed out look to the idea I’m talking about…

GFS

The air behind that may be as cold or colder than what we have on Tuesday.

I got a look at the European Model Ensembles  for the end of the month into early February. I started shivering just looking at them.

Make it a great Sunday and take care.


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145 Responses to The Arctic Invasion Begins

  1. Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

    Lets keep the fingers cross. I want the snow not really excited by the extreme temps. But if that the price we have to take to have some snow, I will reluctantly take that option.

  2. dawnp007 says:

    I want snow! Plain and simple! Why oh why must we always miss out on big snows???? lol

  3. BubbaG says:

    Seems unless I am reading wrong, the potential storm is expected to be to our south? Same old song and dance then- Colder, but still miss the storms?

    “That’s when we turn our attention toward a storm that is likely to form and track just to our south”

    CB has to call it for what it is, but jeepers if reading it right.

    • OLD SCHOOL WX MET says:

      We want it to track to our south. The heaviest snow will be above the storm. But not too far south.

      • BubbaG says:

        I hope it is an issue of semantics as you suggest. The track should be more north, due to a more westerly fed system and the placement of cold air.

        Hence my question in the post in the first place.

  4. Dawnp007 says:

    What do you mean….jeepers, if u r reading it right?

  5. Dawnp007 says:

    Ohhh. Ok. I get ya. I wasn’t reading it right myself. Too sleepy!!

    • BubbaG says:

      Seems if this pans out at the end of week, another storm where Tennessee gets it and most of us if any don’t. I would have expected this to track more north, but if a system can find a way to miss most of us, it probably will.

      IDK, maybe I misinterpreted CB’s post?

      At least Lucy should not fool as many with here football this time.

      • Go Cards says:

        He means the low will be to our south. That is what you want for it to snow here.

        • BubbaG says:

          I thought that as well, but he says the “storm” is tracking. Were it not, CB would probably have said the low is tracking to out south.

          Not so sure it is an issue of semantics.

          • bjenks says:

            I take it as the “Storm” being center of the Low pressure. Not where the snow will fall. If above models are correct, central and southern KY will get 3-4. With lighter amounts torward the river.

  6. Dawnp007 says:

    I’m throwing in the towel. Waving the white flag! I cannot take the let downs anymore.

    • OLD SCHOOL WX MET says:

      Dawn,it is not a let down. That is exactly the set up we need for a heavy snow. The snow is the heaviest just to the north of the storm. We are sitting pretty on this one.

      • Dawnp007 says:

        I sure hope you are right! But I do remember getting the biggest snow I’ve ever seen back in March of 93′. Going try to hang onto the hope that we will get some snow…..eventually.

        • OLD SCHOOL WX MET says:

          Dawn,we are way overdue. Mother Nature is late in her third trimester and is ready to deliver. So ready also to get off this “rolocoaster” and have an old school “bubabuster”!!!!!!!

  7. Weatherman2015 says:

    BubbaG, you won the main track, meaning the Low, to travel SOUTH of Kentucky. The snow, falls to the Northwest of an Low pressure. If the low travels over top of Kentucky, we need umbrellas.

  8. bjenks says:

    Missing to the South with cold weather in store is better than Cold Rain…..It all depends on how deep the cold air goes this week. If it stays just ot the South of us we will be in the game. To far South and the storm rides the ridge of the cold and we stay dry and COLD….At least it is going to be cold and not warm. Things COULD get very interesting later this week. Have a great day everyone and thank your Chris for your hard work.

  9. Christine says:

    Given the outlook for extreme cold, please take time to make sure all of your outdoor pets have a warm, dry place to get out of the wind and cold. I know it isn’t possible in every situation, but if you can, bring those pets indoors. They depend on us. Thanks, and stay warm.

  10. Christine says:

    Make sure you check on your neighbors, especially the elderly and shut ins. And be extra careful with your heating source…check those smoke detectors if you haven’t already. Stay warm and stay safe, too.

  11. Coffeady says:

    Looks like a cold week ahead with some potential! Lets hope the cold stays just far enough south of us to keep us in the game. Speaking of games, how ’bout the CATS last night!! Great win and they looked like they were having fun. Now, lets see what huge Ladies can do this afternoon! Thanks, Chris. Have a great Sunday, everyone.

  12. Antibubbag says:

    Bubba g does it make you feel good to post the SAME exact comments every day…we get it…you are in the center of the “snow dome” and ole Charlie brown is gonna swing and miss again at the football. I can’t believe you take the time to post the SAME exact thing every day…life is fun you should try to live it instead of anxiously waiting to post that it won’t snow where you live.

    • MikeM says:

      How did I miss this post? Gotta love the folks who change their name to post stuff like this. If you’ve got a problem with Bubba or anyone else on this blog, Have the testicular fortitude to use your usual screen name.

      This posted at 9:56am. Still don’t know how I missed it.

  13. Ready4Snow says:

    Still early but looks like we may still be in the game for Friday-Saturday system…Looking at the models there still some differences….To me it looks like the latest GFS try’s to develop a low running along the southern tenn. border with rain/snow/freezing rain(take your pick) for ky …However the latest Euro looks like it has the low going north through Ohio…Don’t know if wednesday clipper system will have an effect on friday’s system or not..You would think we should have enough cold air in place for snow….Still a few days away so we shall see…

  14. james says:

    Not saying it’s gonna happen, but if you want an old school snow storm, this is gonna be the right setup. But also, could turn into an ice storm with surface cold in place and any waa that occurs. Come on old school!

    • Ready4Snow says:

      Yes…We have been getting awful close for some of these system’s turning into an ugly ice event..The ice is pretty to look at but too many headache’s come with it..

  15. DOTsalter says:

    Wouldn’t be to our advantage if the low tracks to our south, seems this would give Ky a better chance for an all snow or a rain to snow event versus a low to the North producing mostly rain?

  16. Tim says:

    For an old school snow, lets hope the low develops over the Texas Pan Handle, then moves through Tennessee and up the west side of the mountains. Hopefully stalling for a few hours, just east of London.

  17. rolo says:

    listen to OLD SCHOOL, lord u dont want a storm to our north, or moving thru ky, u want a storm that to the south moving EAST/NEAST lordy sum u have no common sxense.

    any big snowstorm will be a LOW PRESSURE moving thru NORYH GA up thrui tenn valley type storm.

    OLD SCHOOL coming!!!!

    • Johnny says:

      Rolo you do realize that you’ll be flip flopping back to ‘nothing is coming’ by tomorrow. Folks I hate to be negative but it’s the same ole song and dance – cold air but nothing with it.

  18. rolo says:

    what JAMES,TIM and OLD SCHOOL are sayting, listen and learn rest of u. as far as BUBBA goes he a BAILEY HATER but he trys to be sneaky with his comments, but us rednecks can read between the liones with his comments. he tries BASHING BAILEY without BASHING.loll

    ole BUBBA a Sly Fox.

  19. Andy Rose says:

    Temps today look quite a bit warmer than expected

  20. Lincoln says:

    I still like rocks

  21. Ready4Snow says:

    Out to 108 on the GFS and not looking good..Looks like what want’s to develop is farther north…With plenty of warm air for ky..

    • Go Cards says:

      The NWS stated in the morning AFD that Euro and GFS flipped flopped positions on the storm. Hard to trust either one right now.

  22. Todd says:

    IM sure Chris will say he doesn’t care about what other weather folks are saying but NWS now saying a warmer solution looks likely for Thursday/ Friday storm, RAIN ending as light snow, Rolo, nothing to see here, dry cold with a few flurries only to warmup and rain with the main moisture!

    • Kelly in Louisville says:

      Forecasting the weather that far out, this time of year is a crap shoot at best. What we do know is that it is going to be cold the next few days, certainly colder than it has been this winter and last but it looks to me like it’s what we would usually call a typical January cold spell, not an “Arctic Outbreak” as so many (Louisville and Lexington mets, Weather Channel, Inaccuweather, etc) are hyping. Arctic outbreak to me says temperatures falling below zero, not highs in the 20′s with lows in the lower teens. The record low for Louisville over the next week are as following…
      21st… -11
      22nd… -9
      23rd… -13
      24th… -20

      Those are arctic temperatures and we aren’t going to be anywhere near that. Yes, it’s going to be cold compared to what we are used to but hardly arctic.

      • Danny says:

        The temps might not be that cold but the wind chill will feel like it.

      • Rachel says:

        I think when the average temperatures in an area for January are in the 40′s (which is what our averages are)… temps in the teens and single digits is pretty dang artic.

        • Kelly in Louisville says:

          I still disagree. It’s going to be cold but a January cold, nothing that hasn’t happened many times before. For me, arctic needs to have highs in the single digits and lows below zero. The forecast high for me on Monday is 30 degrees and 23 on Tuesday with the coldest low being a 14. That’s not even uncomfortable, just chilly. Thursday is back to 46 degrees. Growing up, I can remember going ice skating at the small lake at Cherokee Park here. It’s been over a decade since that happened. I’d love to see a true arctic blast to kill off the bugs and such. I’d also love to see a huge snowstorm. But as Bubba likes to say, the trend is what it is. That is who I’m upset with, the trend.

  23. Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

    When in doubt bet on the rain. Even when there is arctic air in the neighborhood it still a better chance it will rain. Great I love the looks of Frozen mud.

  24. Emc says:

    I believe Chris calls that model jumping. Taking one run of the model and jumping on it. I think Chris has been performing well lately so I am trusting his model. I think his model says colder on Thursday and Friday then most models show with chance for snow. It is just a question of how much

  25. james says:

    The models really won’t get a good hold on this till around Tues or Wed. They will be flipping and flopping all over the place till then. Just have to wait for a couple of days to even start for them to lock onto it.

  26. Joey Wilson says:

    Models will jump all week, but it’s fair to say KY has as much shot at a cold rain late week as it does snow. :( And that’s especially depressing when we get very cold air for three days leading up to the event.

  27. Louis says:

    After reading a lot of the snide comments directed at Chris lately, this past Monday and Tuesday I decided to look at the other competing station’s long-range forecast and compare it with that of Chris. I dvr’d both newscasts last week and looked at them this morning. The competing forecaster this past Tuesday said that this coming Tuesday would see a high of 28, and made a snide comment about someone else (Chris obviously) predicting the temps would see a high in the mid-upper teens and continued to say that there would be no cold air blah blah blah. Well, fast forward to today. Now the same forecaster has a high on Tuesday of 19 and WKYT (Chris) has it at 18. This happens time and time again. Yeah, Chris doesn’t always get it right, but he gets it right so much more than the NWS and Weather Channel/etc. forecasts that I have come to take those guys’ forecasts with a complete grain of salt if they differ significantly with those of Chris.

    • Jamie says:

      Well, when it comes to long-range, Bailey usually says “forecast the pattern, and worry about the details later.” He may be one of the best at this of anyone around. The other day, he said the cold would come, and “hang around for the rest of the month.” Yesterday morning, his own station had a forecast high back into the 40′s by this coming Saturday, so I thought “what gives?” Well, by last night, the forecast had changed and now has it not getting above freezing all week.

      I know there’s lots of hope for snow this week. I think Chris has got a bead on the pattern going cold. There’s no way to tell whether there will be snow or not, but I think we won’t have to worry about rain for a while.

    • In Lincoln Co. says:

      So, my curiosity was up. I looked on the other two webpages….watched the 5-6 pm forecast on one….and on the other, well, it is mysteriously the ONLY one missing from their list of weather forecasts to watch. Not sure which one was dogging CB but, …….

  28. Todd says:

    As Bubba states on here a lot until the trend of below 32 little to no moisture vs a 33 and above plenty moisture trend is broken their is no happy positive spin anyone can say about it, that is the seemingly endless pattern of ky winter weather that has yet to change, I know one week away right ;)

  29. MarkLex says:

    This is a RADAR question:

    When there is a storm in the area this time of year, and you see the radar show green(for rain) pink for (mix), and blue for snow. Does anyone else notice that that radar isn’t accurate? I’m not talking about Virga. There can be light pink over you and nothing is happening. When you look at the NWS radar, it’s looked much more dumbed down, but more accurate.

  30. Tim says:

    I trust Chris as well, thats why I read his blog and I live in Louisville. Today the Louisville Mets are calling for temps in the lower forties for Thursday, with rain. Friday they were saying lower to middle forties, yesterday they were calling for Lower thirties with snow, now 40`s and rain again. Sounds like model jumping to me.
    Chris shows the Euro with the low in Tennessee, the last few days with the GFS coming into agreement. The Louisville Mets are saying the models shows the low in Ohio. We`ll see, but I trust Chris more than most of them.

    • Bill L says:

      Chris leads the Met pack with accuracy….that is for sure. He knows and ‘feels’ weather…and that is what it takes. That being said, I sure hope we get some snow!

    • Todd says:

      The pattern may be colder but the trend of warming just enough to cause rain or mix is reality, we need the snow hammer to nail KY, not just a little corner of the state here or their!

      • BubbaG says:

        Hence the historic result trend should always be factored in. An actual positive result will inherently help adjust the trend.

        One actual positive result is better than an infinite amount of model outlooks that looks great but do not pan out. That is a reason why CB says you can not blindly follow models.

        • Todd says:

          Agree 100%, trend results kicks model hype every time, results as in SNOW in KY vs a MIX/RAIN event 95% of the time over the past 15 years, ( ankle biters a couple times each year 3 in. Or less snows don’t count)

        • Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

          Kind of like the BCS football. I seen this forecast scenario played out for 50 years, it is going to rain and change to some insignificant snow. The rain & snow line will be halfway between Lou & Indy. I don’t need a weather model to tell which way the snow going. Almost a Bob Dylan phrase in his song.

  31. Woodsman says:

    Ky may get nothing but cold rain but WV will be blasted with snow as always, not looking forward to this.

    • Danny says:

      Ky will get snow from this upcoming system, relax. Models are struggling with the placement of the cold air that will be in place as they usually do.

  32. Joe says:

    If now snow this round, i give up

  33. It’s been a steady 38-39 degrees here today. I sure do dread the cold that’s coming. Hubby works as a city carrier for the post office and I hate that he will have to be outside in such cold temps. Right now, the NWS Paducah is giving rain, sleet, and snow for Thursday with snow, freezing rain, and sleet for Thursday night. We shall see. My money is on Chris. Typically the forecast changes to what his thinking is.

  34. Weatherdadof2 says:

    London 3:00pm conditions – a beautiful sunny. 48 degrees.
    36 hours from now, 9 degrees.
    Wow….bring on some snow somewhere in this madness and all will be well.

  35. Bradc says:

    Temps pushing 50 here in knott co

  36. NWS in Paducah just changed the Thursday forecast from snow/sleet to 40 degrees and rain

    • Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

      Did you think for a minute that the trend would be colder.

      • I think they’ve changed their minds with every model run. When snow and sleet were training over us within the last week or so, they were still giving a 20% chance of mixed precip despite the WWA we were under. Also, they didn’t bother updating their discussions at that time.

  37. NikkiEKY says:

    I thought today’s temperatures were not supposed to get out of the low to mid thirties? As of right now, temps in extreme eastern KY are running near 50 degrees…hope this doesn’t effect the arctic blast!

  38. Russ says:

    NWS going with 40′s and rain later this week. I guess the Arctic train is “delayed” another week. LOL, whatever.

  39. Tim says:

    One Louisville met said, a few minutes ago, that he isnt buying into the northward movement the models are showing. He say`s the lows do not like to move into cold air, but around it. He leaning towards a more southern movement, simular to what Chris has been saying. Everyone else is taking the models verbatim. I hope the low moves through Tennessee then up the west side of the mountains, stalling for a few hours just to the east of London.

    • BubbaG says:

      Which is CB’s point: Do not blindly follow the models.

    • Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

      I am incline to agree with him but how much further south can that low go. I think the upper 30s to low 40s temps is not going to scare a low from coming up the upper ohio valley.

      • Joey Wilson says:

        Can still change a lot. I also saw someone on another site say the freezing line will be closer to the surface low than usual which I’m taking it to mean a track through northern TN would give a lot of us snow instead of rain.

    • Kelly in Louisville says:

      Yeah, I read that from Brian Goode at Wave 3. He’s my favorite by far of the local mets. I sure do miss John Belski though, he was, in my opinion, the best we’ve ever had around these parts. I hope he starts up another weather blog soon.

  40. BubbaG says:

    That would be messed up if CB did a new post was titled:

    … Next week.

    I hope I’m joking. Dramatic pause……..

  41. Todd says:

    The low is now forecast to move into southern Ohio, that puts 40 degree rain in play for KY Thursday/Fri storm, if tomorrow the models put it in Tennessee again then this will prove most weather outlets flip their forecast with run to run models which I find very unprofessional to say the least! Yes I’m talking to you NWS?

  42. Joe T says:

    18z GFS brings the low right over central Ky. Cold KY rain…….again. Lets hope it changes, it certainly is having a rough time with this low

    • Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

      I can hear Elvis in the back of my mind. Now I know why he loved that song because it was based reality.

  43. Marie says:

    I think I am glad we will be out of town in the next week or so. We can turn down the heat and maybe not have such a huge bill this month. With temps like these, the heat will run almost non stop!

  44. Emc says:

    This storm still five days away. Models will show rain, snow, back to rain and the finally one day before event decide. I think it will be a wintry precip type in Louisville.

  45. WXEMGUY says:

    I think it would be wise to stick with Chris’ line of thinking on this one comming up on Thurs/Fri. (i.e. colder solution with a southern storm track). His forecast thinking is quite reasonable. Also, when monitoring NWS Forecasts, it never hurts to check out their Forecast Discussion, which addresses the methodology behind their predictions. For example, the rain/snow mix currently forecast is a BLEND of POSSIBLE solutions…as such, their latest forecast discussion says this…

    “The bigger challenge for the forecast will be the low pressure system moving out of the Plains Thursday morning and tracking across the Ohio Valley Thursday into Thursday night. The last few model runs have shifted this system to the north, putting most of the forecast area in the warm sector by Thursday afternoon/evening. The latest guidance suggests precipitation may start out as snow or a mix on Thursday morning and change over to all rain by the afternoon and evening. As the cold front swings through on Thursday night, precipitation will change back over to a mix and then possibly all snow by Friday morning as cold air surges back in. Precipitation chances will linger through Friday night with some flurries Saturday. Though this forecast trends toward the warmer solutions of recent runs, have not gone as warm as the guidance might suggest. Think it is quite possible that this system could trend back to the south over the coming days and it will need to be watched carefully as we near midweek. Regardless, temperatures will become cold again by the end of the week with lows Saturday and Sunday mornings back into the teens and low 20s.”

  46. Tom N Lincoln says:

    You get bet ya last dolla money, it gonna be a cold rain honey.

  47. Aaron C. says:

    The thought of possible cold rain this weekend is making an already miserable day even worse. No. more. cold. rain. If it ain’t snow, I don’t want it. Cold and snowy or HOT and dry (80s in February)–no. more. cold.rain.

  48. Russ says:

    Oh great, more cold rain. That should go well with the flu that’s been circulating around the ole house. Kentucky winters SUCK. I would love to pack it up and head to Montana.

  49. Todd says:

    The lack of an update by Chris today is proof the forecast of a snowy week is not looking promising, OK, I know everyone this is his day off, but I have been on here long enough to know if a winter storm threat is possible we would here from Chris more often, two day cold spell then back to same ole same ole bland KY winter weather! The thought of Spring is becoming more and more inviting by the day!

    • Joey Wilson says:

      Well, I doubt Chris has thrown in the towel on this storm BUT no updates and no Tweets (that I can see) from him would seem a bit depressing for those of us begging for snow.

    • Russ says:

      I think the much advertised arctic intrusion is a BUST. I think we’ll be counting our weeks to spring very soon.

      • Kelly in Louisville says:

        I refuse to call it a an arctic intrusion or anything arctic. It’s a January cold spell, nothing more and nothing less. Yes, it’s going to be pretty cold the next couple of nights but if isn’t below zero, it isn’t arctic.

  50. weather blog troll says:

    I didn’t expect an update from Chris today.
    From reading his original post, sounded like he was going to enjoy his Sunday.
    Good thing to unplug and recharge.
    The models will flip and flop- no?

    • Joey Wilson says:

      Sure, he rightly deserves time off! But, he’s been on the defensive the past week with his “arctic blast and snow chances” forecast. 24 hours ago, it appeared he was going to trump the NWS and other mets who had been predicting warmth and rain starting Thursday. Today, it appears likely will be all or mostly rain. Considering this, one would think he’d be updating IF he thought he was still right.

      • 3789N8434W says:

        Trottle it down. You are owed nothing and civility in tone and courtesy in attitude are expected. Prospect elsewhere for a tiff or weather information you choose to like or accept.

  51. Ready4Snow says:

    Woo Hoo Moderation all day long….Anyway’s, if anybody can read this the 18z GFS still does not look promising…Show’s a weak surface low going through eastern ky around hour 111…Nothing to get excited about…Having issues looking at the Euro today through SV so don’t know what it is currently showing…Looking forward to Feb…If anybody follow’s the MJO it’s suppose to go into phase 8 early Feb…Along with a tanking -AO and +pna we may have a better shot at snow chances…Only time will tell…

  52. Corey says:

    According to accuweather, they’re calling for just a cold rain Thursday and Friday! I know, take their forecasts with a grain of salt, but why does Kentucky ALWAYS miss out!

  53. TONEY says:

    give the man a break, he has had a few days off from work and trying to enjoy some free time to himself…..monday will be another day and start of a brand new week and most important, the start of a brand new weather pattern……..those of you wishing for cold and snow……you may be wishing for spring by the time march gets here…….chris knows what he is talking about and this goes along with his winter weather forecast back in nov. along with the mets in my local viewing area of huntington, wva when they issued their winter forecast…….that it would be back end weighted.

  54. Todd says:

    I can see most places in KY getting through January with less than one inch of snow for the month, Frankfort has not seen a flake since the morning of December 29th, that is pitiful, February has its work cut out for it winter weather wise to make this year even slightly worth remembering as in snow?

    • Aaron C. says:

      Some places in KY have gone this entire winter without an inch of snow. Yes, really.

    • Kelly in Louisville says:

      Hard to get snow to stick in February unless it falls at night. That sun is getting higher and higher in the sky each and every day and the difference in brightness now versus late December is really noticeable. That all being said, we here in Louisville got our big 14 inch snowstorm on March 5 of 2008. Of course, all 14 inches of it fell during the night as it didn’t start sticking till the sun went down.

  55. Nate in Nicholasville says:

    It’s almost impossible to forecast a low track this far out, however, and I hate to even mention it, but if this cold plays out, I really don’t see warm air coming in here in time to turn everything to rain, at least in the lowest layer of the atmosphere. I really think and fear this type of pattern and LOW LEVEL cold can create the perfect setup for ICE. The ground will be very cold after this temp dip, and I can’t see warm air just moving all this cold out of here. If anything, you will end up with warm air aloft, and we all know what that means. I am not saying that’s what will happen, just my opinion. I grew up in northen Ohio, and the 2 devastating ICE storms we had while I lived there came from setups like this. Local mets called for rain, and didn’t take into account the stubbornness of moving cold air from the surface. The ice storm of 2005 in Northern Ohio had temps in the upper 30′s to low 40′s above 800mb, and surface temps of 29-31….we were without power for 2 weeks. Towards the end of 2005, a very similar setup delivered one of the worst ice storms the South has ever seen. Dec, 2005 produced a low out of the gulf that rode along a cold arctic ridge, and combined with a weak Alberta clipper to produce a devastating ice storm over the Carolinas, Virginia and Tennessee. Very similar setup to what we have coming, only a few hundred miles to the South.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_storm_of_December_2005

    Sorry for the long post, and again, I am not really confident this will play out with ICE, but it seems all the elements to make an ice storm will be in the vicinity…

    • Todd says:

      Watched Louisville mets at 6 they are saying scatterd light precip Thursday / Friday so even if tihis stuff is frozen nothing heavy is forecast to fall!

    • MarkLex says:

      You should have seen Lexington in Feb 2002 or 2003? Horrible Horrible ice storm! I think that had to be one of the worst experiences of my life!

  56. Lincoln says:

    Do y’all like rocks?

  57. Crystal In Pikeville says:

    Only In My Margrarita’s.

  58. OLD SCHOOL WX MET says:

    Some of you need to just relax. CB has to have his rest. He has not changed his mind. Will still be snow work Friday. Give him a break. He can not post 24/7. You will see he has not deviated his forecast from earlier today. He will say so in his next post. The great weather Oz will return.

    • Emc says:

      Agree. I believe we will see winter weather Friday, at least in Louisville. I just think the question is how strong will the storm be

  59. BubbaG says:

    CB already said the models will likely flip flop, so nothing he can really say different than he did 18 hours ago. The model outlook trend does appear to be averaging on the warmer side, so will be interesting to see if CB adjusts his temps upward or holds fast.

    I weigh historic rolling trend heavily as far as snow, so am not really expecting anything much. Not until we get (or if) an actual result to support a positive trend for snow. So far on average, the models have a big F over the past years out-looking snow.

    Anybody else notice the models seem to always miss on the negative side and never on the positive? Uncanny it be.

  60. Coffeady says:

    Chris mentioned that he was getting sme r & r. Also, said arctic air would settle in more on Monday, and get colder as the day goes on. This from a couple of days ago. Not much new to tell right now. He will tell it, whether it be good or bad for Ky. Thanks, Chris. Hope you are getting some good rest. Have a great evening, all.

  61. Danny says:

    Hear ye, Hear ye the models are going to flip flop like a fish out of water. This is the first time all winter that we have decent cold lock in place. The models are incredibly terrible on handling the cold temps they have been all winter. Models tend to push the cold air out way to soon. The GFS wants to push the rain as far north as Indy that is not by any means going to happen. Bottom line is the models are truly struggling with the cold air that will be in place. By Tuesday if not before the model trend will be colder.

  62. Lincoln says:

    At the end of the day, I like dirt more. It’s much cooler.

  63. KeavyMan says:

    Notice Fox56 mentioned possible rain/snow on Thursday but turning all snow Thursday evening. Likely to snow through Saturday. Why don’t we all just calm down a bit and quit jumping on what the nowcast is and wait for the actual models start showing what really is going to happen late this week. So many has talked about their excitement of the coming storm and then get depressed over their locals calling for rain. NONE of these forecast is set in stone yet. THEY WILL CHANGE. Hold your bloomers up and get ready for an exiting ride into winter. The models FLIP-FLOP as much as many of the readers here do. COME ON PEOPLE….LET’S PULL TOGETHER!! LOL

    THINK SNOW!
    THINK OLD SCHOOL!!

  64. OLD SCHOOL WX MET says:

    I like the way you think KeavyMan. Rally the troops. Hopefully we will have a couple of inches of the white stuff on the ground before Thursday.

  65. upslope says:

    both the NAM and GFS are beginning to “lock in” to a colder solution for the end of the week

    • BubbaG says:

      Flip floppers. The trend seemed to be averaging towards warmer and now seems averaging colder again. No point in CB really updating his view until the models settle down. Unless he just wants to say Howdy! ;) :)

  66. Tyler says:

    Latest GFS starts the trend for the southern trend…….bringing accumulating snow back to northern Kentucky and showing heavier accumulations just over the river in Southern Ohio. I’m from southern Ohio so I can’t complain.

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