Monday Evening Update

Good Monday evening. Arctic air continues to blow into the bluegrass state as our temps continue to tumble. Winds have topped 30mph at times and our wind chills have been dipping into the single digits. The forecast for the rest of the week remains on track and there’s the increasing possibility of a winter storm late Thursday into Friday.

We know about the cold temps of tonight. Readings hit the upper single digits and low teens with wind chills going below zero. Highs will be in the upper teens and low 20s on Tuesday.

A clipper dives into the Ohio Valley on Wednesday and this will bring a swath of light snow with it.

The setup for late Thursday into Friday remains the same and my thoughts remain the same. A winter storm is likely to impact Kentucky during this time and I like what the European Model is doing with the track of the low…

Euro

That low works right across Tennessee and puts the entire state in line for accumulating snow. That setup matches what should happen with arctic air in place across our part of the world. The GFS Ensemble mean has a threatening look…

GFS

The GFS has been trying to come around to this scenario. The 6z run from earlier today brought quite a bit of snow our way…

GFS 3Again… the GFS is all over the place. The models do not handle low level arctic air very well, so the GFS may take a few days before it settles down. The NAM won’t be of any good until within 48 hours or so.

Regardless of what happens with the storm Friday, the first northwesterly snow event of the season looks likely Saturday.

The pattern may relax for a few days early next week, but look at what’s coming for the middle and end of next week…

GFS 2This is a loaded pattern this week and through February.

I’m off work again today, but will see you back on the tube on Tuesday. Have a great evening and take care.


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88 Responses to Monday Evening Update

  1. james says:

    Thanks Chris! Hope your enjoying your day off. Things looking good for later this week. Could we finally kick the football? ;)

  2. Cole in McCreary says:

    Thanks Chris for your time for us snowless Weebles! Maybe soon!

  3. kywildcat says:

    This is great news :)

  4. rolo says:

    none my biz but noticed u been off ALOT last month or so, hope there nothing WRONG with family ole BUDDY. be safe.

    • TJ says:

      Have wondered the same thing lately,been alot of turnover at WKYT in the last year and its not the same especially with him not there alot.

  5. RalPh says:

    I’m about to give up…I thought for the last few days you had said something about a chance of snow today? Now nothing :( I’m not getting my hopes up for later this week either because nothing will happen and then we’ll be told to wait for “next week” again…

  6. Israel says:

    This is why were getting this cold shot. http://www.climatecentral.org/news/stratospheric-phenomenon-is-bringing-frigid-cold-to-us-15479 An unusual event called ” Stratospheric Phenomenon” is bringing frigid cold to U.S. This article explains it all and it says this is why the second half of winter will probably be below normal, like CB was saying.

  7. Dawnp007 says:

    Lovely eye candy! Let’s hope it pans out. ❄❄❄❄

  8. Woodsman says:

    Snow storm plus a northwest wind will will put feet of snow in my yard, miss the warmer temps. Thanks Chris!

  9. Ready4Snow says:

    As usual the GFS is out to 84 hrs and you can tell it’s on crack…

    • Ready4Snow says:

      Ah…HR 99 looks better…Not as cold as the Euro but it will come around..

    • Drew says:

      Yeah the GFS is trying to modify the artic air too quickly. Its just trying to push it out of the way. The cold air is dense. I like what the EURO is doing right now taking the low across the TN valley. Also helps that the euro ensembles agree with the Operational model itself. I think the NAM and GFS will come around to the Euro eventually.

  10. BubbaG says:

    Info so far looks okay. Will we see a trend buster or rider? Will be interesting for what plays out.

  11. weather blog troll says:

    Thanks, brother-man! Enjoy your time off.

    Think SNOW!!!

  12. Cosmokramer says:

    What happened to light snow forecast for last couple of days? Tuesday swath has now moved to Wednesday night. Late Thursday-Friday may be a snow maker Saturday. So that brings us to the dreaded “this weekend and next week” scenario.

    No days missed for weather…..wow….hasn’t happened in awhile.

    • Rachel says:

      As a teacher, I’m not complaining. Sure as we’re going through the weeks I think about how nice it would be to have a snow day, but as the weeks go by without snow days I realize how much nicer it will be when schools let out in mid-may like last year instead of in June and everyone gets a real summer break. I won’t mind a day or two off and I’m still certainly hoping for that elusive old school snowstorm, but if it happens on a weekend I’m still good :)

      • JJTeach says:

        I agree!! Looking straight forward to Summer Break! But, if a snow day or two comes along, I won’t complain either ;)

        • KyDerbyBelle says:

          Same here. I teach and I liked getting out early last year. But, at least one or two snow days would be fine for me !!

    • Go Cards says:

      No the storm is still on tap for thurs-fri. He was talking about after the storm on Saturday. NW winds may bring some snow from Lake Michigan down this way.

    • OLD SCHOOL WX MET says:

      What are you talking about. Although it did not snow today,we should get 1-2 inches for a base Wednesday and 2 storms after that. The first one is for Thursday night and early Friday that tracks through Tennessee and brings us 3-8 inches in our vicinity and another one coming in from the Northwest Saturday,which will also bring us a good shot of snow with the cold entrenched. The nice snow cover will allow for temperatures to really drop at night. CB did not state the amounts,but did clearly say Wednesday this time and you are combining the Thursday night/Friday morning and Saturday storms into one storm. If you notice,the article air continues to dig in and last through the end of January and the entirety of February. He was the only one calling for this month ago. People called me crazy a couple weeks ago when I told them Old School was coming,but looky looky. Charlie Brown might actually get to kick that pigskin after all. God bless CB.

  13. Chilly says:

    Baby, it’s cold outside! ( simply stating the obvious)

  14. Aaron C. says:

    If I were to make my map, I would be highlighting all but the extreme northern and southern rows of counties for the possibility of the highest snowfall accumulations, basically the “center” of the state all the way from the western border to the eastern borders of Kentucky; i.e. Owensboro, Lexington, Richmond, Danville, Elizabethtown, Glasgow, Columbia, Liberty, Mount Vernon, Irvine, Jackson, Pikeville, Cynthiana, Georgetown, Frankfort, Lawrenceburg, Bardstown, Salvisa, Lancaster, Stanford, Nicholasville, Louisville, etc.

  15. Joey Wilson says:

    Must say, I like our chances for snow with the very cold air already in place by mid/late week. Am hoping the Euro verifies and KY gets a thumper!

  16. Todd says:

    I hope the GFS snowfall map that Chris put up is out to lunch, major snow dome look to that for most of central KY, east ky should like that one though!

  17. MarkLex says:

    So can I ask what’s keeping this storm from going TOO far to the south? And how do we know how intense the storm is going to be at this point?

    • Ready4Snow says:

      I’ll try to answer….Ridging out west is not too good…Thus not allowing the system to dig and amplify..Thus it should ride along the trough where the cold air is…If i’m wrong it wan’t be the first time…

  18. Chris Mercer says:

    Let’s focus on tonight/tomorrow and see if temps bust on the high/low side. That ought to give some insight into what will happen Thur/Fri. Currently 23 in Lawrencburg. Coldest of the winter has been 17. Forecast low NWS: 10. WKYT: 9. If temps are busting on the low side by several degrees, this probably goes south of us. If temps are right on, we get a good snow. If temps are busting on the high side, this goes north, and we get a mix to rain.

    • MarkLex says:

      Chris – good theory…….So far, today the temps were about a degree off from what was forecast. Not bad.

      • Chris Mercer says:

        I hate to say it, but right now it looks to me they will bust on the high side. Temp actually as risen between 700 and 800 here. Maybe this arctic air isn’t as strong as thought?

        • Pharmist says:

          Temps right now are 2 below the hourly forecast from weather.com in Louisville. Supposed to be 20 at 11pm, but it’s 18 already. We’ll have to see how it plays out the rest of the night.

  19. Aaron C. says:

    I don’t think this storm is going to be the B word; but most places, hopefully, will get a decent snow base (going with a safe wide conservative margin of 1 to 5 inches) from the storm this weekend. Not going to count the chickens before they hatch, but statistically speaking based on cold air and the track (and the “newness” of the cold air–too fresh and it shunts the storm south–too stale and we get ice or a mix), it looks decent from this far out at least.

  20. Weatherdadof2 says:

    Latest EURO looking good for southern/eastern KY for Thursday night/ Friday. It’s posted on CB’s twitter feed.

    • BubbaG says:

      Boo! ;) The mid third of the state is the snow deprived!

      That said, this could be an ice event the more south you go, so maybe we will graciously let that area have it. ;)

      Nah, I wouldn’t wish ice on Duke fans, yet alone Kentucky homies.

  21. Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

    I not going to get all fired up at this moment. I have been the internal optimist too many times. I will hand the torch over to somebody else on this blog. I am in now cast mode pertaining to winter forecasts that have snow involved in the state of Ky.

  22. Jenn says:

    What’s the chance of a N/W jump on the precipitation map

  23. Chris Mercer says:

    In the short term, are the winds and clouds going to “bust” the low temp forecast for tonight? Temp has actually risen from 20 to 22 here in Lawrenceburg in the past hour. I’ve seen 17 once this winter, and wondering what it will now be tonight. And last winter I saw as low as 12. Will be interesting to see if this is actually the coldest night since 2011.

    • Rachel says:

      We’ve dropped from around 24 at about 5 pm to 20 now here in Lexington, but it’s about as cold a 20 as I’ve felt in forever… that wind is bitter! From my understanding it’s not really supposed to get really cold until tomorrow morning — drop steadily overnight. I could be wrong about that though.

    • OLD SCHOOL WX MET says:

      Uhh,already 19° in Lexington at 8:50. Not increasing here. Right on track. Relax.

  24. Todd says:

    The weather channel is showing their maps for feb&mar, below norm for eastern US for February but way above for march, April , so looks like short window in feb for winter hit its mark?

  25. Dawnp007 says:

    So is the storm threat for Thursday into Friday going to now be on Saturday????? I’m confused.

    • Danny says:

      No Thursday night/Friday

    • OLD SCHOOL WX MET says:

      Dawn. It is2 storms if you look closely. Thursday night/Friday is storm with low in Tennessee and Saturday is another one on top of that one that comes from the Northwest. If you see the above maps Chris posted,it shows the low to the Northwest of Kentucky diving down as the Thursday night/Friday start in Tennessee impacts our weather. So if you like snow,you will love this. 2 storms in 2 days. Hope this helps? Please reference the above maps.

      • OLD SCHOOL WX MET says:

        Storm in Tennessee and not start. Sorry for the typo.

      • dawnp007 says:

        Thanks, Old School WX Met. I’m what you would call, map illiterate! lol. I don’t understand all the colors unless, of course, it is showing snowfall amount. I am trying to learn by reading the posts and such.

  26. Todd says:

    Officially the coldest night of the winter in Frankfort temp down to 16 with 9 degree windchill, single digits should be a sure thing at this point!

    • Chris Mercer says:

      Man–my thermometer must be broken here in Lawrenceburg. Usually I run “neck and neck” with you but right now am at 19.8 degrees and holding!

      • KellyinLouisville says:

        19 at my house but it hasn’t dropped in several hours. Decent cloud cover tonight so that might hold temps up a bit.

  27. MarkLex says:

    The reason it’s the coldest 20 we’ve ever felt is because it’s been forever since it’s been 20

  28. machell says:

    I am in north Lawrencebug on a creek and the temp. I am getting is 15. However we are always a little lower.

  29. Woodsman says:

    Thermometer is showing a balmy 4 degrees 3500 feet up.

  30. Ready4Snow says:

    well that run of the 00z sure sucked…Low is weaker….Much more drier….Oh well,on to the Euro

  31. MikeM says:

    I wish Chris would get back on Tv. His replacement is calling for 40′s on Monday. I remember Chris saying next weeks temps were going to be colder than this week.

  32. james says:

    I think you can safely throw out the 0z GFS. Wait for the euro.

    • Go Cards says:

      Why throw it out as I stated earlier? The Euro is pretty much standing alone right now. Yes generally speaking the Euro is the most preferred of all weather models. Which model will cave first? That is the question now is it not?

  33. Go Cards says:

    If someone were to throw out any weather model that must mean they must know what will happen. As far as I can tell no one has a clue.

  34. Drew says:

    New Euro is a hair south of 12z run. Colder though. Looks to be primarily snow for most of KY I believe.

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