Good Monday evening. Arctic air continues to blow into the bluegrass state as our temps continue to tumble. Winds have topped 30mph at times and our wind chills have been dipping into the single digits. The forecast for the rest of the week remains on track and there’s the increasing possibility of a winter storm late Thursday into Friday.

We know about the cold temps of tonight. Readings hit the upper single digits and low teens with wind chills going below zero. Highs will be in the upper teens and low 20s on Tuesday.

A clipper dives into the Ohio Valley on Wednesday and this will bring a swath of light snow with it.

The setup for late Thursday into Friday remains the same and my thoughts remain the same. A winter storm is likely to impact Kentucky during this time and I like what the European Model is doing with the track of the low…

Euro

That low works right across Tennessee and puts the entire state in line for accumulating snow. That setup matches what should happen with arctic air in place across our part of the world. The GFS Ensemble mean has a threatening look…

GFS

The GFS has been trying to come around to this scenario. The 6z run from earlier today brought quite a bit of snow our way…

GFS 3Again… the GFS is all over the place. The models do not handle low level arctic air very well, so the GFS may take a few days before it settles down. The NAM won’t be of any good until within 48 hours or so.

Regardless of what happens with the storm Friday, the first northwesterly snow event of the season looks likely Saturday.

The pattern may relax for a few days early next week, but look at what’s coming for the middle and end of next week…

GFS 2This is a loaded pattern this week and through February.

I’m off work again today, but will see you back on the tube on Tuesday. Have a great evening and take care.