Tracking The Winter Storm Potential

Good Tuesday, everyone. You guys have been asking for arctic air and mother nature is bringing out the big guns today. But, is there anything worse than frigid temps with a bare ground? Don’t answer that… it’s a rhetorical question. We’re going to try to change that later in the week as a winter storm heads toward the bluegrass state. I am very likely to upgrade to Threat before this day is over.

Let’s start with where we are today and move forward.

Temps this morning are in the high single digits and low teens with a wind chill value from 0 to -10 for some areas. That’s in the danger zone, so don’t overdo it if you are outside early today. Highs this afternoon will range from the upper teens in the north to 25 in the west and far south. The wind won’t be as strong, but it will add to the cold feel to the air.

A clipper will dive southeastward into the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. This will bring a swath of light snow and flurries into the state. Highs Wednesday will be in the 20s.

That system will reinforce the arctic air across the Ohio Valley and that’s going to have a big impact on the track of the developing winter storm later this week. That system will develop across the southern plains and roll eastward across the Tennessee Valley.

As expected… the trend on many of the models has been for a much colder storm. The European Model has had a great handle on this setup and continues to show the low passing by just to our south Thursday night into Friday. It then turns it into a monster up the east coast…

EuroI can’t post the snowfall map from the European Model, but it shows a widespread snowstorm across the state with some areas up to 8″. I’m not saying that’s accurate… but I’m not saying it isn’t.

The GFS Ensembles continue with a threatening look…

GFS 2

The GFS continues to go colder and has snow, sleet and freezing rain for the entire state…

GFS

The Canadian Model had been cutting a storm toward the Great Lakes. It’s now seeing the arctic air in place and has a much different look by Friday morning…

Canadian

After the storm goes by… northwesterly winds will unleash the first true northwesterly wind driven snow event of the season on Saturday.

Again… an upgrade to Winter Storm Threat is a STRONG possibility later today. Check back for updates.

Make it a great day and take care.


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172 Responses to Tracking The Winter Storm Potential

  1. Dawnp007 says:

    I just read on wx risk that se ky could get 8-12″. Does anyone else read his stuff?

  2. In Lincoln County says:

    Get all the weather I need right here! Thanks Chris!

  3. Lincoln says:

    Awoken by the dog at 3:22 am to realize its hotter than you know what in my home. Opened a door that leads to a deck off the second floor, greeted by a nasty gust of wind!

  4. LD says:

    Looks like the temps have already bottomed out for the night, looking not quite as cold as expected. Only 4 Mesonet stations reached single digits and 3 of those were in northern KY, with the other in far SE KY.
    I do wish wind chill was one of the data choices for those stations.

  5. james says:

    Thanks Chris. Good to see your about to go into threat mode. Lets hope the euro pans out. I’m gonna start dusting off the football cleats. Oh Lucy, where are you? ;)

  6. pattyversailles says:

    Thanks CB! Why do we have all this frigid weather now with no snow chance and then when moisture arrives we’re on the fence. As of now we don’t know if there will be a rain/snow mix or snow. Just once, only once, I wish it would be a clear cut……..”SNOW IS COMING” forecast!! I know…Pipe dream for here in Central Ky!!

  7. Weatherdadof2 says:

    NWS has cooled it down 6 degrees in their updated forecast, which means a much better chance for frozen, not rain, for SEKY. We will see.

  8. awesome says:

    Forgive me I’m an amateur at reading the models, what does it look like Glasgow, Ky may get?

  9. Frank the Tank says:

    What is the predicted NAO for Friday-Saturday?

  10. BubbaG says:

    Thanks CB!

    Pretty much as stated Sunday night:

    Luke Bubba = 4″ to 8″ around much of the state

    Darth Bubba = 1″ to 6″ with mainly snow north of I64 and more ice mix the further south you go.

    A key as CB hit on is the light snow for Wednesday. This would help influence temps by just enough for an all-snow solution. The catch is warm air does not like being left out of the party and seems to always find a way to crash the fun. Hence the Darth Bubba alternate view.

    Of course, depending on the track- Luke and Darth could be wrong. They are “father” and “son” you know ;)

    • bjenks says:

      Depending on the track of the low and how much cold air stays in place KY could see a mix of both Darth Bubba and Luke Bubba….ICE is going to be in the mix somewhere.

  11. Bradc says:

    15 here in knott co

  12. Lola Mollette says:

    We never watch WSAZ anymore for the weather Chris. We only ever check out your report. Keep up the great work.

  13. sue(Flatwoods,KY) says:

    my themo shows 11 deg, out in town it is showing 9 deg!!!!!!

  14. Bernard P. Fife says:

    14 in Monticello this morning. Looks like old man winter & the heat miser will have a cage match here on Friday to see what kinda precip we border counties get!

  15. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks, Chris. Nice to see you back, and hoping to see threat mode soon. Just hope that threat is for the whole state! Hope your time off was good, but have to say we missed seeing you on air, so it will be nice to see your smiling face again!As for the temps….was 11 on my back porch this morning. Car said 14. Either way, its cold! Have a great Tuesday everyone.

  16. Woodsman says:

    -12 on my porch this morning. Thanks chris!

  17. MarkLex says:

    Looks like the low was 10 in Lex. Forecast was 9. Not bad

  18. rolo says:

    OLD SCHOOL showing up on ALL MODELS!! folks once we get in nowcasting u see storm SLOWE DOWN thats what OLD SCHOOL storms do and puts SE/E KY in for the BIGGEST SNOWS. ROLO says 8-16 inches with futher easdt and SER getting ther heaviest.!!!!

    33-35 degree after the cold air is a GOOD SNOWWING TEMPS as we had back in 80s and early 90s with OLD SCHOOL!!!

    • MarkLex says:

      Rolo – Please do NOT Jinx this – it’s too early

    • Kat says:

      What do you think about the Southern Indiana area like around Louisville?

      • Danny says:

        I put Louisville in the 4 to 6 inch range

        • Kat says:

          Thank you Danny, when you go to other sites and try to ask questions some of those people are rude but not here and I know nothing about the weather but live in the country off of some pretty nasty roads that go untreated by the county so it is important to me, everyone here is always such a big help, I live in Southern Indiana in corydon and their rd department sucks when it comes to our roads, they always put some kind of pebble rock down and think it works!

          • Danny says:

            No problem Kat. However there is a local Louisville met saying that his gut feeling is that Louisville is in line for a possible ice storm. Louisville will be far enough north that whatever falls will be in the form of some sort of wintery precip. I just dont think that tongue of warm air aloft will make it as far as the Ohio River. Im sticking with my 4-6 inch snow for you guys in Louisville/ Southern Indiana. Either way travel will be junk statewide Thursday night/ Friday.

    • Micah says:

      Rolo what is your prediction for Casey County in south central KY?

      • Big Papa says:

        Please do not take Rolo as the gospel just yet. Rolo sees a few models doing good and sings the praises of an “old skool” storm and then a day out he ALWAYS says “all rain folks, nothing to see here”. If anything, if Rolo is saying “old skool” snow this far out then it more than likely will not happen. They don’t call it the rolocoaster for nothing.

        Although, I do like the looks of this system, but there is still so much that could happen between now and Thursday night/Friday.

        • MarkLex says:

          I realize this. That’s why I said don’t jinx it. It would have been much better if he had said “nothing to see here folks, all rain too far north, or too far south”……then I would have felt much more confident.

        • Dawnp007 says:

          Poor ole Rolo, lol

    • bjenks says:

      Rolo….Could not agree more….The feel of this one is different from all the others….Cold air in place with warm overiding perfect set up for a decent snow for much of the state. Someone will have an old school snow from this system. ICE Will also be very possible.

  19. Russ says:

    The Prophet Rolo has spoken, and instantly folks take it for gospel. Rolo, chill out man, we’re 2-3 days away from this. At the first flip of the models you’ll go the other direction. Things looks ok for now, but no way on God’s green Earth does this not provide a few anxious moments.

  20. Willie says:

    For Lexington and surrounding areas, is this more of a Thursday night or Friday morning event? Someone said it wouldn’t start until Friday morning, and I work as a courier at nights and was wondering if I was going to have any problems? I work from 8 PM – 8 AM

  21. Mike S says:

    Beware of the ‘snow job’ forecast this far out. Storm system has not made it to shore yet. Actually I’m more concerned about ice accumulations for many. Hope for more cold air aloft to support snow and not rain.

  22. Snowgoose says:

    Looks to me like the dreaded GFS shows the freezing line cutting the state in half. Of course, until the moisture leaves, then it drops into Tennessee lol where have we seen this movie before?

  23. Winter Warlock says:

    Will it be the thrill of victory or the agony of defeat? Liking our chances this time. Just have a feeling. Will be fun to watch the model runs as work their way towards agreement. WW

  24. bjenks says:

    BubbaG & Rolo are both in the game for snow three days out….HHHHMMMM I wonder if they are on to something. It is not very often you get both of them on board this far out.

    This storm has a bad ICE Feel to it. Someone in KY is going to get ICE with most of us getting snow. I really like the snow prospects for the River counties to Lex….Lex on South could get real interesting if this low slows down.

    THINK SNOW!!!!! and jump on the ROLOCOASTER with Bubba and I…….

    • BubbaG says:

      Please keep in mind I posted a Darth view as well.

      Darth = Trend. Darth would be nasty stuff.

      • bjenks says:

        I read that and responded!…I have a good feeling about this one. Haven’t had this feeling in a few years. Could be a combo of Darth Bubba and Luke Bubba…..

  25. Ready4Snow says:

    Here’s the nogaps….Only thing concerns me is the track of the low going to far south…Will have to say East Ky is in a good spot right now…But as other’e have said it’s still early…

    http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nogaps/00znogaps850mbTSLPp12096.gif

    • MarkLex says:

      Oh well – the more drama, the more fun, right?

      • Ready4Snow says:

        We’ve been deprived of snow for so long it’s scary knowing whatever can go wrong will go wrong when it comes to snow in ky…I’m not getting my hopes up until i actually see snow….Just hope the model’s are right and not over doing the snow amounts…

  26. rolo says:

    wellmy thinkiing is this, we got COLD AIR in place today the ground going be cold first, now ur going have warm air with the storm but as mention before 34-35 good snow temps. the warm air not going to cause a BUST that comes with the storms. u want see warm up when big storm comes in, and n u see starting out as a mix etx to quick change over with the evap cooling in upper atmsphere

    the low not going track farther north, it could scoot tad south but still SNOW!!

    now HEAVY WET SNOW will cause huge problems, but hopefully alot of us can keep power.

    • Howard in Somerset says:

      i think the chances of this being a wet snow are basically none,(If) enough warm air gets in it will be a mix of sleet and freeing rain then to rain(south of Cumberland parkway).. The cold is firmly in place and has a reinforcing shot wed. night into Thursday with lots of clouds during that time frame too.. Storm looks very similar to the January Storms of 1994 and 1996,both good snows for the entire state.. Also both were followed by extreme cold as well! This is a snow that has Dome Buster written all over it,with more right behind it

      • Danny says:

        No no no this storm is not even in the same league as the storm of 1994. That 94 storm was a absolute beast 94 storm develop in the four corners took a ton of gulf of mexico precip with it and just unloaded on the Commonwealth. This system has zero charestics of that epic 1994 storm.

  27. Ready4Snow says:

    Reading the comment’s from NWS Jackson they are still scratching there head’s on the upcoming event…Still one has to be worried looking at the GFS…I’ts still in Funky town…

    • Danny says:

      GFS is handling the artic air like it doesnt exist. The Euro was the first to catch on to the Artic air and has been the most consistent model it really has not waffled at all. Either way you cut it dice it there is going to be a winter storm. Precip type is going to be the biggest headache. For anyone who is in that freezing rain zone if that sets up that will be ugly temps today stay in the lower 20′s for highs tonight fall back into the lower to mid teens highs tomorrow around 30 tomorrow night lower 20′s and by Thursday highs around freezing. Stay below freezing for another 48 hrs whatever freezing rain does fall will stick like glue.

  28. Wes says:

    The forecast for right across the mountain in Virginia gives snow for Wednesday night/Thursday…NWS in Jackson gives us nada until Thursday night…???

  29. Ready4Snow says:

    Nam showing snow love for a good chunk of ky….

  30. DougT10 says:

    This is in from Jackson NWS

    Winter Storm to Affect the Region Later This Week

    A significant winter storm could bring a mix of freezing rain,
    sleet, snow, and even some rain to Eastern Kentucky from Thursday Night
    through Friday. Some locations in the south or southeastern part of
    the region may experience the precipitation change to all rain on
    Friday, while the precipitation may remain all snow along and to the
    north of the Interstate 64 Corridor. Light to moderate snow
    accumulations are possible along with some generally light ice
    accumulations.

    Any remaining precipitation will change to all snow Friday evening,
    with the threat of snow showers continuing through Saturday evening. Light
    snow accumulations are possible again.

    Confidence in the exact track, moisture, and other details of this potential
    winter storm is rather low at this time. Changes in these details could bring
    large changes to the exact snowfall and accumulations of ice that might occur
    with this system.

  31. MarkLex says:

    So is this going to be considered a “Strong” storm? I’m not speaking of where it tracks, but is the overall storm itself going to be considered a big storm, a medium storm, or small storm? I ask because QPF totals only look moderate.

  32. DougT10 says:

    I noticed they said a significant winter storm but by looking at the whole forecast I would say a minor storm to effect the area

  33. Todd says:

    I have never seen so many snake bitten folks walk back into the pit of the snow dome, I’m glad so many are thinking positive but see no reason to jump on board the snow crazy train as of yet? To much up in the air at the moment, no pun intended!

    • Andy Rose says:

      When I see 4 or more inches of snow out there then I will jump on the snow train. Not to be confused with the Godfather’s train ;)

      • Todd says:

        I have my tickets purchased, just not ready to board yet, come on Ozzy bring that crazy train to KY, I hope it tours the entire state!

    • BubbaG says:

      Ice could be a main player if it does happen. We need that snow tomorrow to fall in order to help the temperature. Perhaps the snow or lack of will be an indicator of the next expected event.

      Chain reaction, since the resulting snow or lack of would impact the next expected clipped events.

      In summary, snow begets snow.

  34. Oboro says:

    Can anyone give me an idea of what this storm may mean for Owensboro in the Western part of the state?

  35. Tom in Rockcastle says:

    Latest run of the models of little help. This thing is getting close and has to be a nightmare for forecasters, less than three days out and no real consensus. I would say keep us informed Chris, but I already know you will. Thanks for the Hard work you put into this blog.

  36. JJTeach says:

    I’m anxious to hear CB and Brian Goode’s thoughts on all of this throughout the day.
    I’m just SO ready to see all of those beautiful colored snow range lines painted all across Kentucky like they used to be. Everyone remember all of those pretty 2-4 in, 3-6 in, 4-8 in, lines? We didn’t see them hardly at all last winter…I’m ready for Chris to start painting again!!! :)

  37. Andy Rose says:

    Aparently there is a school in the knox school district that has no heat and they are keeping the students anyways. I thought those days were over back when they heated with boilers and radiators

  38. Rachel says:

    What’s the timeline on this? I keep seeing some people saying thurs/fri and others just friday – is it gonna end up one of those middle of the day messes because those are the pits!

  39. TJ says:

    12Z GFS colder on this run, but much weaker with system coming through

  40. Which Way Wind Is the Wind Blowing says:

    As far as the Nam model is concern, the 12z is colder than the 0z run. Unfortunately the majority of Ky would receive rain,fz. rain & sleet. WHY CANT IT JUST SNOW!
    Okay, I have calm down, I do like the trend. I cannot wait to see the 12z models.

  41. Todd says:

    For what it’s worth? The weather channel forecast for Frankfort has went from 38 rain/mix to now just SNOW for Friday!

  42. leslie says:

    Surprised to see NOAA already posted a hazardous wx outlook!! Trying not to get my hopes up for this one but sure is hard… ready for a “GOOD one” here in Lexington!

    http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=KYZ041&warncounty=KYC067&firewxzone=KYZ041&local_place1=Lexington+KY&product1=Hazardous+Weather+Outlook

  43. rolo says:

    yea GFS is indeddd weaker, but tomm afternoon runs will be when we will know for sure.

    but im so confident that if its a miss and i mean if it does come WINTER STORM WARNING Critera storm, I will leave the blog for 2 years from the date of FRIDAY.

  44. rolo says:

    I will say it concerning that last evening alot mets NWES were getting on board, but now they are saying best chance will be ohio river couties north. meaning storm tracking ALOT futher north. mix in centrasl ky and RAIN in S/SE KY

    this is my LAST STAND FOLKS and its not a dream its looking at the set up with a southern SW type storm and the COLD AIR in place etc.

    I believe its OUR TIME!!!

    • bjenks says:

      AMEN to that brother…..We are so overdue and this setup is likely the trend buster for much of the state. .

      THINK SNOW!!!!

      • BubbaG says:

        Outlooks though seem to favor ice as a main ingredient. We need CBs outlook to hopefully refute others :)

        CB has a much better batting average.

        • bjenks says:

          I said that yesterday. With an already frozen ground ICE could get ugly real quick. I still think along the parways is the fence…..Time will Tell….

    • leslie says:

      Ok rolo,,, are you confident enough to give us your “first thoughts” after tomorrows afternoon runs?? I’m with you,,, I think we are due and for what ever reason,,, this one feels different. I hope we get hammered!!

  45. BubbaG says:

    The outlooks seem to conform to trend so far. This would mean more ice than snow and a I64 favored track.

    That is not CBs outlook yet, so we need CBs thoughts. Same old song and dance? Seems 50/50 for now, which means I have no clue. Trend is the trend though and it needs busting to start a new one.

  46. Pharmist says:

    I love how everyone is jumping all over rolo for his old school comments… Even though CB saying he thinks we will be going into Storm Threat later today.

  47. prelude says:

    Accuweather’s Henry Margusity just posted if the southward track continues he will be shifting his heaviest snow bands further south from Louisville to Cape May wherever the heck Cape May is somewhere near Washington DC.

  48. Todd says:

    This snow event may be our last snow chance for a while, warm-up starting Sunday thru much of next week, if February gets off on a warm start it might bust all those hopes for a snowy February? March already forecast to be warm!

  49. Todd says:

    Just did my tour of the lunch time tv met, Louisville, Lexington, channels, not one said this would be a big storm and most think it is a mix for most of KY, sounds about right to me, I’m sure Chris will have something to say about what they are looking at?

    • MarkLex says:

      Didn’t Chris say that the pattern would relax briefly next week (warm up) then get arctic cold again?

    • prelude says:

      Todd when watching mets on TV there going to down play to the public until the mets know for sure on what will possibly unfold. If the different mets in your area have local blogs you can read them and say to yourself that’s not what you just said on TV.

  50. BubbaG says:

    Which as stands now, directly contradicts CBs outlook. Let us hope CB has not changed to a warmer outlook and the other outlooks are canned model outlooks.

    Though rare for me to be serious, I was that for the snow chances to play out, we probably need the Wednesday event to get it rolling. Snow tends to follow snow, due to the obvious atmospheric implications snow causes.

    • Todd says:

      Most are saying a few flurries for tomorrow, what snow chance are you talking about?

      • BubbaG says:

        Seems we need a little snow on the ground, so maybe a catch 22. I was counting on a light snow to help keep temps down.

        If we can not get snow with these temps to help facilitate, forget it.

        CB is smart holding off until he gets the information he needs. Hopefully his point about canned outlooks is in play right now.

    • BubbaG says:

      It’s colder when snow is on the ground. Canned models have a hard time with that for outlooks.

  51. emc says:

    the models will show more snow today, then more mixed bag tomorrow. About one hour before event they will get it right. I am going with Chris on this one. As I said he has been spot on last few weeks. For Louisville I do think it will be mostly snow. Still not ready to throw out totals but if had to right now would probably lean in the 3 – 5″ range.

  52. Chris Mercer says:

    Ok–for once, I am impressed by this “arctic air.” With no snow on the ground, low fell to 9 above in Lawrenceburg and with full sunshine temp is now 18.

  53. Earl says:

    New Canadian follows euro. Looks great for snow

  54. Todd says:

    NWS suprisingly are the most robust with the chance of snow, that surprises me since a lot of TV mets cut and paste their thoughts! If the ICE and warm air aloft snow killer stays away this atleast has the chance for a nice Central KY snow? (Nice being 3-6 in.)

    • c-BIV says:

      No worried Todd. This one is putting snow down. I would lean towards 5-7″ for Louisville and points east. 3-5″ North of River. East of I-75 6-9″, east KY could be in for 8-12″. Just my opinion early on.

    • Chris Mercer says:

      My only concern, and this is a legitimate one, I remember a similar set-up in January of 2004 and December of 2009. Temps fell into the single digits, warmed up into the 20′s (enough for ice/sleet and some snow) and then crashed back into the single digits (NWS mentioning cold lows on Sat/Sun) after the ice/snow had fallen. In 1994, I remember it raining (of course, freezing rain) with temps in the teens before changing to sleet and a thumping of snow.

      • prelude says:

        This is set-up is by no means equilavent to 1994 that storm form in the four corners and grab a whole lot of gulf moisture and nailed KY. This storm will not have near the moisture to work with or the intensity of 1994. No means will it get -22 below zero that’s a given fact. Or snow two inches an hour for six hours straight not happening.

        • Chris Mercer says:

          I don’t think it will be either. I should have clarified my point, which is surface temps don’t always tell of precip type. I’ve seen snow at 40 degrees, and rain, freezing on contact, in the teens.

    • Go Cards says:

      The NWS has not updated yet. Those thoughts are from last nights model runs. If anything the “storm” is looking weaker. The NAM shows mostly ice. GFS shows an inch of snow if that. Euro should be soon.

      • c-BIV says:

        NAM is still lost…CB will confirm that. GFS is starting to catch on to the Arctic air in place and eventually will catch on to the energy that will meet up with the cold air in place. Tenn Valley is perfect placement of LOW bordering KY and EURO/Canadian Models will win this battle again.

  55. Drew says:

    New Euro does not have much of a “storm”. Real light precipitation shield and flat. Still some snow but not a great run by any means.

  56. Johnny says:

    Told u guys we are getting nuttin

    • BigPoppaSnow says:

      Where did you tell us we are getting “nuttin”? I’ve looked all over the 110 replies & only see your name once?

  57. DougT10 says:

    Last time blocking or something caused it to go farther south and east cold air in Miss, Tenn they get snow now we have cold air in place we get rain or ice what gives? But of course I know nothing about the weather or what all that other stuff means euro this nam that but i love to read and comment

  58. Aaron C. says:

    You do realize the models are not “predicting” what is going to happen right? They are printing out what would happen in each scenario that is ran.

    Getting a good snowfall is like catching a big fish. Get too excited an you scare it away. Sit there and fall asleep while the bobber gets pulled under and all your bait is gone.

    I’m sitting here with my hands on the fishing pole, waiting for the fish to start biting so I can pick just the right time to reel it in.

    As for now, my prediction is unchanged Heaviest snow from just south of Louisville to just north of Somerset, and all points east and west inside that zone. Elizabethtown to Pikeville.

    • BubbaG says:

      One thing is for sure, if folks go by canned outlooks like in Weatherbug app or others, their frozen precipitation expectations will be low.

      CB ain’t canned, he is fresh off the weather vine.

    • Go Cards says:

      I get what you are saying. That is why I said if it looks the same tonight and especially tomorrow forget it. I’m not jumping on one set of model runs. Just stating the trend as of now is a much weaker storm.

    • prelude says:

      South of Louisville???? No the I-64 corridor is the biggest concern Louisville, Lexington, Cincy and points north for a all snow event south of there freezing rain sleet and snow.

      • MikeM says:

        64 always seem to be a border no matter what direction a front comes from.

      • Aaron C. says:

        Right. Just like when I screamed “ice storm” in 2009 and I literally got a comment “disagree 100%.” Well, we saw what happened there. Went with my gut; something the meteorologists of today (well, many of them,) just don’t have the “gut” to use.

        Not bragging to make myself look better, but rather to show a case in point that you can’t let one different opinion dissuade you from what you believe in.

        • emc says:

          You can predict snow, ice, sleet, and rain with this storm. You can’t be wrong because the state will probably see all types. I still say Louisville sees mostly snow. Intentisty is the question

  59. james says:

    Well, at first we were worried about temps. Now that temps will be good for snow, the system is trending weaker, drier. Would rather find out now then to be expecting a 4-6 in. snow up to the start of it, then only get an inch. When does spring start?

  60. Tim says:

    A Louisville met said the storm will strenghthen as it moves through Tennessee. He said, according to his map, about 70% of Kentucky will get snow, just dont know how much. 20 % will get ice, it looked like Somerset, Danville areas and the extreme southeast will get only rain.

    • c-BIV says:

      Which is what I said…the models are really struggling with this set up. This is NOT going to miss us! At least 3/4 of the State will get in on the fun.

      • Bernard P. Fife says:

        Great! the 3/4 that i’m NOT in :( Prolly bust for Monticello again. Looks like the artic air was overhyped for our neck of the woods, nws predicted a high of 19 here this afternoon..my thermometer is showing 30 right now. (my apologies for the sour taste i have in my mouth right now)

        • Bernard P. Fife says:

          maybe someone could spew out some good news…snow related for the Wayne County area that would lift my spirits anyone??

  61. Justin says:

    I think the bigger issue here is that there is going to be a ton of dry air to deal with. Dew Points will be low, thus the leading edge of this moisture is not going to reach the ground. With this storm trending weaker and colder, total QPF may be an issue.

  62. Earl says:

    Why is everyone saying TRENDING weaker. Canadian came in stronger. Euro a tad weaker Gfs never had it. We’re do u all get this stuff

  63. Aaron C. says:

    Holding to my guns. You got to stand for something or you’ll fall for anything (a model run or two that loses faith in itself is not changing my mind.) If by the day of the event, it shows nothing for us, then I might step down a bit.

    For now, I am upgrading the areas I mentioned to a Winter Weather Advisory (at least) for Thurs/Fri. If situation warrants, it could be upgraded to a WSW or WSW.

    The advisory is the first step in increasing confidence (although not by a huge margin) that there will be accumulating snow.

    • leslie says:

      OH Thank You Aaron C for not backing down from your earlier post!! We just want some accoumulating white stuff here in Lexington and surrounding counties. I know we are still 72 hours out but this is the first “big one” in a long time!

    • Bengalfan says:

      Aaron c,,,just wondering who u r as far as u saying your going to upgrade ur forecast…r u a weatherman in ky? O just givin a opinion?

      • Aaron C. says:

        Not a weatherman by the professional sense, just an avid weather watcher and “weather weenie” since I was 14 years old. Been watching things with a critical eye for about 15 years off and on. I guess you’d just call me an “amateur forecaster,” even though I don’t publish anything on any individually-owned sites related to the weather.

        Just forecast on a little bit of my “gut” a little bit of overall general knowledge + past experiences with storms and weather patterns. Sometimes it works out, sometimes it doesn’t—-but above all, I do my best to avoid being biased (although it can be tempting to forecast higher totals in your own backyard.) :)

  64. KeavyMan says:

    I am still holding for snow here in Laurel County area. May not look good to some and may be just ripe for others. For me, I am going to hold hope till Thursday and see the facts as it becomes more accurate. Wave has already said they are going into WinterStorm mode. Yes, I am starved for a nice old school storm but if we don’t get it, there is nothing I can do about it. IT IS WHAT IT IS. Nothing wrong with dreaming. We all need a dream and mine is snow LOL.

    Come chat and lets figure out what is going to happen. Come on in chat CB would love to have ya. After all, this blog is the reason for the chatroom.

    http://weatherforkentucky.chatango.com/

    • Go Cards says:

      WAVE 3 goes into alert mode if there is a flurry in the forecast. They do this to gain more hits for their blog. I used to like them but now its just to gain an advantage over WDRB. Goode and Harned have a strong dislike for Weinberg over at WDRB. Have stated this multiple times in their blog the past couple of years.

      • emc says:

        I read thier blogs regularly and never remember them throwing others under the bus. My personal opinion is that Wave 3 is by far the best choice for weather information in the Louisville market.

        I think WDRB tends to drive the bus over others too much. They have a bit of arrogance to their forecast.

        • Go Cards says:

          They bashed each other almost on a weekly basis last winter and the winter before. Never mentioned names but you knew who they were talking about.

  65. Woodsman says:

    WV looks to get popped, no weak storm here.

  66. Shelley says:

    when I actually see snow piling up I will believe it. not before then.

  67. Todd says:

    According to Chris’s tweet a little while ago, he is off again today, Karri hall is working for him, Oh well, maybe he will have more time to update his thoughts on this next snow chance?

  68. bjenks says:

    Strength of storm will not determined until it has actually formed and moved over land. No one can determine amounts off the current models. Senerios show that much of KY is in for a winter event may be light snow to heavy snow, WWS to WSW to ICE. Once this low starts it’s jaunt across the west the models will pick up on it better.

  69. Aaron C. says:

    Here’s the first map I’ve made in quite some time that has been this detailed. Even if it doesn’t play out like this; it has been engaging and interesting to take a look at things and visualize how they might unfold.

    http://i263.photobucket.com/albums/ii147/aaron5951/secondoutlook_zps83a92141.gif

    This is a blend between the “second option” and “third option” that NOAA had drawn out yesterday.

  70. Johnny says:

    Places like Pulaski, Laurel & Whitley have revived NO SNOW. For now on, I’m sticking to until the day of the event to see what’s going to happen. No need to get hopes up anymore. Bring on Spring time!!!!

  71. Tom in Rockcastle says:

    Nam going the way of the GFS with a weaker system. Though the Nam is a little warmer than the last GFS. Interesting to see if we now have a trend.

  72. bob says:

    Got down to 16.5 here at my house in Topmost. 28.5 right now and I live where the sun don’t shine this time of year.

  73. Marsha says:

    Chris you just know how bad we miss you on the tube so you was just coming to work early for all your weather nuts….

  74. BubbaG says:

    Given how all over the place the models have been today, no credible source would have the needed info for a forecast at this time.

    Sure, the trend suggests ice, mix, rain and a little snow, but that is history to this point. Not the coming event, whatever it is.

    The rolling trend is hard to bet against, but at some point a buster should come. I guess….. Shoot, now I am doubting myself. Boo on the trend!

    • Aaron C. says:

      Sure they would have the info needed for a forecast at this time. Unless you’re talking amounts or an “hour by hour” replay of what the storm is going to do in one location…then yeah that would be hard to pin down. The overall general setup is for a winter storm impact. The lines of where/what precip type are still not set; so a “catch all” forecast will work.

      Chris said it himself……”Forecast the pattern—-get the details ironed out later.” if not verbatim, close enough.

    • Mike S says:

      Agree on the models all over the place…the storm has not developed. All these model runs are just crap shoots.

      Tomorrow’s data will be more relevant and hopefully clearer. I’ll be leaning more toward the NAM’s data coming out tomorrow sometime.

  75. Virgil Edwards says:

    I say the low takes a more northerly track leaving points I-64 and north in all snow and the south in a light mix turning to all rain and ending as snow seeing very little to no accumulations.. This winter might be colder than the last but I just don’t see it being really that much snowier.

    • Chris Mercer says:

      So far, it is warmer than the last. Average temp in Lexington through January 22
      2011-2012: 38.8
      2012-2013: 39.6

    • BubbaG says:

      Hard to argue that about snow to this point in time. Irrefutable, it be. I think we actually had at least an inch more at this point last year.

  76. Joe T says:

    NAM and GFS have all but dropped the storm. Very weak at best and a cold rain for most. This is getting old.

    • Dara says:

      I wouldn’t trust one run even with agreement between the models when we’re 2-3 days out. Tomorrow I’ll take it but not at the moment. Hoping for snow and it seems like a real possibility but a possibility is all it is for now……

  77. Andy Rose says:

    Wonder when we can actually be graced with Chris’s presence on the tele? ;)

  78. Leeannie says:

    I say KY will get a bunch of snow! And only because Carter Caves is hosting their “Winter Adventure Weekend ” this coming Friday thru Sunday! That would truly make it an adventure. ( Of course, the Ashland Oil bubble will keep the Kenova, Huntngton area high and dry…as usual….sigh….) But on a positive note, I think I can hear the chattering teeth of all those stink bugs in my attic! Die, you suckers, die! Haha

  79. Todd says:

    My backyard in Frankfort got about 4.75in. Of snow in December, nothing so far in January but the minor icing event, so if Friday snow is a bust no snow for January with a warm up on the way early next week, I guess we must now look to February for any chance at adding significant snow to the talley?? last year 5 inches in march was largest snow, I think we had 7 inches total for last year!

  80. Ready4Snow says:

    Hard to believe the Euro weaken’s the system after showing 2 good run’s in a row…Usually don’t happen especially within 4 days of the system..Still believe the low will come back stronger after the model’s get through digesting all the thing’s going on north of us in the atmosphere and when the S/W comes ashore out west…If nothing better show’s up by tomorrow night then only a few inches in good ole East Ky….

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