Watching The Late Week Winter Storm

Good Tuesday evening. Your friendly weatherdude got all dressed up with nowhere to go today. I showed up at work and started making maps before I realized my mini vacation had one more day left. Yep… I actually did that. Regardless, I’m always working for you guys here on the blog. 🙂

I’m tracking two winter weather makers this week and the first one arrives late Wednesday into Wednesday night. The NAM and Hi Res NAM are very impressed with this system…


Those two models would put down an inch or two of snow across parts of central and eastern Kentucky.

The next system is a developing winter storm taking aim at the state Thursday night into Friday. The HPC has outlined much of the commonwealth in the risk for 4″ or more of snow…HPCIn addition to the snow threat, there is the potential for sleet and freezing rain for some areas. Odds favor this being mainly a snow maker as I believe the cold air is going to stand its ground. The question becomes… how much moisture will this system be able to produce? This is where we are seeing some model disagreement and that’s the ONLY thing I want to get ironed out before going into Threat mode.

A general 2″-4″ snowfall appears to be a safe bet for a lot of areas. That said… I see the potential for a lot more, as well.

Computer models will often show something for several days in a row before giving a quick head fake in the 2-4 day out window.

The potential for a winter storm is VERY MUCH on the table for Friday. I want to get a better handle on precipitation amounts before going into threat mode. That may come later tonight or Wednesday.

Have a great evening and take care.

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162 Responses to Watching The Late Week Winter Storm

  1. KP says:

    That is hilarious. Kari and the others must have given you a bit of grief about that!!

  2. In Lincoln Co. says:

    I can taste snowcream now!!! 🙂 Come on SNOW!!!!


    Dosent look like much chance for snow on the coal piles in muhlenberg county

  4. Tonya Harris says:

    I’ve done that before–except once they had me there, even though it was supposed to be my day off, they made me stay!

  5. Chris Mercer says:

    The max of Chris’ general (four inches) would give me more snow than last year (6 inches total) in Lawrenceburg, KY with Feb, Mar, and even April (it can happen) to go! Still monitoring the winter temps. This year has been warmer than last year so far, but I think by January 25th, that will change.

  6. weather blog troll says:

    Thanks, Chris. Enjoy your “extended” vacation.

    I like the “prime the pump” theory.
    A little snow tomorrow night and then a healthy adder on Friday!

    Go CATS!!!

    and come on SNOW!

  7. Linda in McCreary says:

    That is so funny Chris !!!! You should have went back home, cause I am sure you will be spending extra time at the station come Friday!!!
    Will MC get any snow this time…as I completely missed out last week?

  8. Coffeady says:

    Thanks, Chris. Didn’t you know we are like baby birds when it comes to this blog and the “S” word? Mouths open and hungry! Hope your confidence bumps us into threat mode sooner rather than later!

  9. Dawmp007 says:

    Woohoo!!!!! Bring on the snow babyyyy!!!

  10. Really want snow in Madison County, we are snow deprived and thirsty for snow. Thanks Chris for your dedication to keeping us informed.

  11. Chelle says:

    Chris, you know I love ya man, but how is it that your forcast and Kari’s is so different from each other? I believe what you say, but during the local news she seems to blow off, what you are talking possible storm? Just wonderin 🙂

    • Todd says:

      Agree with you on that, you would think that they are a team that works together since they represent they same station, maybe not, maybe they have the freedom to go any direction they want? I have notice at midday Micah is never in line with Chris’s thoughts?

  12. Dawnp007 says:

    Hey, Keavyman, got the chat room fired up????

  13. Mark says:

    Hoping Nashville area stays rain. No ice :(.

    Recap of recent ice/snow events in central TN:

    Also, the HPX radar (Ft Campbell/Hopkinsville) is now out of service.

    HPX won’t be back up until another five days so when the dual-pol upgrade is finished. Until then, other radars like PAH (Paducah) will provide good redundancy for western Kentucky.

    Considering it was t-shirt weather at times during PAH’s upgrade, hope the HPX technicians brought their parkas ;). For that matter, perhaps they wish they were upgrading Guam’s radar instead 🙂 (which just finished upgrade).

  14. Ready4Snow says:

    LOL..Posted this in the other thread but anyway’s here goes…
    Hard to believe the Euro weaken’s the system after showing 2 good run’s in a row…Usually don’t happen especially within 4 days of the system..Still believe the low will come back stronger after the model’s get through digesting all the thing’s going on north of us in the atmosphere and when the S/W comes ashore out west…

  15. rolo says:

    its all bout the STREGTH of the system, which as we get closder I think will show up stronger by this time tomm.

  16. rolo says:

    READY4SNOW spot on throw latest EURO out, watch tonite new run come back STRONG!!

    • Ready4Snow says:

      Hard to believe the Euro weaken’s the system after showing 2 good run’s in a row…Usually don’t happen especially within 4 days of the system..Still believe the low will come back stronger after the model’s get through digesting all the thing’s going on north of us in the atmosphere and when the S/W comes ashore out west…If nothing better show’s up by tomorrow night then only a few inches in good ole East Ky….

  17. Tim says:

    All Louisville Mets are saying there isnt any moisture, as of now. They are saying 1 or 2 inches at most. But, we get our bigger snows when warm air is trying to move the cold air out or over running it. I`m with Chris on this. More moisture will be available in this. I see Louisville getting 4 to 6 out of this and more to our east. We shall see.

    • Emc says:

      Tend to agree Tim. I think it will be stronger Tommorrow but probably show warmer as well. Still say all snow for louisville

  18. Matt in Richmond says:

    Thanks for updating Chris… I love this site and I’m hoping for snow

  19. BubbaG says:

    I’m a good driver.

  20. Dara says:

    Getting the snowsuits and tubes ready…..hope I won’t be dressed up with no place to go lol! I’m thinking this is our trend buster and lord knows we need it 🙂

  21. pattyversailles says:

    Chris Bailey! Now I know you love, love, love your job!!! There is NO way in this old world I’d forget and return to work a day early from vacation!! I can’t believe you did that!!! LOL!!!

  22. Kat says:

    Why did he not outline Louisvile, does this mean we get no snow 🙁

  23. DestinyinLouisville says:

    Looking at one of the largest “halo around the moon” I’ve ever seen!! Hopefully it’s a sign!! 🙂

    • KeavyMan says:

      Halo’s around the moon is suppose to indicate the moisture heading toward us. Correct me if I am wrong but I take it as an excellent sign!

  24. Joey Wilson says:

    Lots can change in the next 48 hours. Always does and probably will. Good for some, not so good for others. 🙂

  25. Local met just said that Thursday/Friday will not be a big storm for us here. He only gave a little burst of snow. Oh well, I guess we shall see

  26. rolo says:

    HALO round the moon a sign of MOISTURE!!

    we need this thing to TaP into the GULF MORE on the next next 2 runs. tonite/morning runs will tell the tell as far as how much moisture we get.

    I see 0.50 -0.75 worth precip getting into S/SE KY, and if we can tap more moisture next couple MODEL runs then BOOM.

    member 1 inch rain = 10 inch snow that normal ratios with moist systems.

    • BubbaG says:

      Speaking of that, seems a catch 22. If we get more moisture, that also probably means more warm air. At least that is how it has been for a large portion of us for fifteen yearn’ and a key reason these type of systems sandwiched with cold air meant ice for most of us. Case in point, it would be exactly four years ago IF we were to get mainly ice on Friday.

      My thoughts FWIW are the more moisture, the more chance for ice and mix. The less the moisture the more chance for snow. Seems a winter dilemma.

      I Hope I am wronger than cold rain 🙂

      • MikeM says:

        The less the moisture the more the snow? Still scratching my head on that one. Can you have one without the other? 😉

        • Leeannie says:

          I think what that means is this: when we get a lot of moisture, it usually has to come from the gulf. Unfortunately, it also usually drags the warm air in with it and we get the rainy stuff. In order to keep the cold air and get snow, we have to get weather systems from the west or north which usually bring less moisture with them.

  27. rolo says:

    right now Richmond S/SE/E is the line for this storm. north that ur ish out luck I think. like the past system other day SHARP CUTOFF again, but the mositure will get futher north and it will last for longer pewriod of time so larger totals. now this just my thoughts, tomm morning runs will tell us all what will happen.

    at this time ill go with my above precip totals, but I can see a STRONGER STORM coming round too!! I think u see WINTER STORM THREAT MODE when u get up read blog in morning with focus on S CENTRAL/SE KY

    • BubbaG says:

      Would be nice, but seems more moisture feeding in might come at a prICE. 😉

      Perhaps the more south, the more that could become an issue. Would be nice to know how the moisture will feed in without needing warm air to support the push. Really, I would like to know to ease my ice concerns.

      Seems that for our region, only clippers perform with wrap-around to feed more moisture. The Friday system though is not a clipper.

  28. Ready4Snow says:

    I wonder if that clipper system is what’s messing everything up..Looks like the southern system is to close to it and just get’s beaten down and can’t tap into the moisture or get stronger..Would be nice to have someone explain what suddenly went wrong,as a learning experience…

    • BubbaG says:

      CB appears to be not saying that, but is not articulating the threat precip type. He has already made hints about ice…..

  29. Wes says:

    “I’m tracking two winter weather makers this week and the first one arrives late Wednesday into Wednesday night. The NAM and Hi Res NAM are very impressed with this system…”

    Why isn’t the NWS out of Jackson seeing this also? They say nothing of snow until Thursday…

    • Bobby A says:

      I’ve always wondered about this….

      • Wes says:

        I trust Chris more than the NWS…here is the thing, IF there is snow in the forecast, why not say it? There are people who depend on forecasts (elderly, those that work out in it)…a slight chance should at least be worth mentioning. What Chris has posted qualifies as more than a slight chance…

        • Big Papa says:

          My only guess is that it’s not very often that a model run pans out exactly from 3, 4, or 5 days out. Especially when the models are not agreeing. If the NWS or another meteorologist are always saying a lot of snow coming our way when they are 3 or 4 days out and it didn’t happen then it will eventually be like crying wolf and nobody will believe them. Most all met’s are super conservative until about 24-36 hours out from a storm.

      • MarkLex says:

        I know rite! I have been wondering the same thing but been focusing more on the late week storm.

    • DJ says:

      I feel the same way. I’m wondering if this might sneak up on a few people tomorrow coming home from work, and cause some problems… We should def have some high ratios.

    • KeavyMan says:

      NWS out of Jackson sticks there hands out the window and then give the forecast. Can’t predict snow until ground is white and a car slides in it.

      • Wes says:

        I’m going to have to agree with you. This is not a “bash the NWS”…but, with all of their technology and their knowledge they should be able to pice things together better than what they do. The 0 percent chance this evening will change to 70 percent tomorrow “when they see it.”

  30. mikew says:

    I see weve got the theme park fired up what are the hight restrictions for this ride?

  31. Todd says:

    This isn’t about north or south as much as where this thing comes together, 2 parts of energy trying to faze, thinking right now is fazing will be better in east half of KY creating heavier precip more east than west! Chris early guess in general 2 to 4, 2 being around Louisville and 4 or more Lexington east, south of that I’m sorry to say may have to overcome warming aloft for significant snow, but heavy upslope stuff will help east and south KY Saturday!

    • Wes says:

      NWS has nothing for Saturday for where I live. I’m as far Southeast as you can get plus I have the highest “upslope” that you can get in Kentucky right in my backyard. Another reason the NWS is failing to convince me of their forecasts.

  32. MarkLex says:

    And to think forecast is 50’s next week. Whatever falls will be gone anyway, unless the snow that does fall changes the temp forecast, which could happen.

  33. Bill says:

    Wow..local mets are really downplaying this snow. I’m going with Chris on this still…..sleds are being waxed as I speak!

  34. c-BIV says:

    This map is about as downplaying it as you get. It doesn’t. Even have Louisville area getting a trace and only extreme east KY getting 2-4″.
    I don’t buy it at all.

  35. Bob from Knott Co. says:

    I can hear it now…the atmosphere needs to moisten up due to all the dry cold air in place. Hello again Mr.Virga!

  36. Upslope says:

    Latest Nam completely looses storm…flurries at best

  37. Upslope says:

    Or should I say nam delays the storm

  38. Lincoln says:

    The temps for Lex are running 4 degrees colder tonight than planned. Should be at 16, sitting at 12.

  39. Aaron C. says:

    Chris, sounds like you were ready to go a day early. Hey, that can’t be a bad thing!

    Thanks for making me smile. 🙂

  40. KeavyMan says:


  41. leaky says:

    Will we get a wonter storm watch from this event?

  42. Rob says:

    This is looking more and more like a non-event…next.

  43. chris g in clay county says:

    nws jackson thinks the low will track from southwest to northeast through ky

  44. Seth says:

    It looks like the storm is going to miss us to the south. How ironic when just yesterday we were all worried it was going to miss us to the north!

    The deflector shields on the Bubbadome are in full operation! 😉

  45. BubbaG says:

    The only constant we have as far as outlooks is that we see promise followed by waffles, doubt and then letdown.

    Let us hope CB sees something to bust THAT trend. Word.

  46. Aaron C. says:

    Hey now, I have sat and looked outside the window even when the weatherman didn’t call for snow—-back in 1998 (and well, before that too, even when it turned out that it didn’t do anything). I don’t need a weatherman or a model to tell me that I believe in snow! You either believe or you don’t. That’s all it boils down to. If there’s any one lesson to be learned after having 14 years of misses, it’s that trying to figure it out 100% for sure one way or the other just doesn’t work.

    Now, let it snow!!

    • BubbaG says:

      15 years. Sorry, couldn’t help myself.

      • Aaron C. says:

        Bubba, do you remember the story of Noah?

        Even then, there were weather stories that turned into legends. Even if all evidence were to point to the contrary, even in today’s supercharged high-tech world, there is still nothing that is stronger than faith. Trust me, it’s still a work in progress—but I’m getting there.

  47. bjenks says:

    Pretty bad when the clipper on Wed is going to put down more snow than the long awaited Thurs/Fri system…Going to lose steam and go south. I am ready for spring….

  48. chrisb says:

    well, write this one off. met at wdrb in lville says a dusting at best for ky

  49. Joe T says:

    And pooof it was gone!!!

  50. Neil says:

    Really, the only time anyone around here should EVER get excited about snow is when its on the ground, and you can measure it. Otherwise, get yourself used to A LOT of disappointment…

  51. Aaron C. says:

    Thanks, Chris, for solidifying my thoughts. 🙂 I don’t need a weatherman (not even my favorite weatherman) to tell me I believe in snow, and now you just said “bring on spring.”

    It’s always darkest before the dawn, isn’t it? 🙂 I need a candle. My faith is weak, but I know how to hold onto it! Or are ya finding a way to get me to lose my grip?

    • BubbaG says:

      Looks like he offset that post saying two other models look wimpy as well. That would be three models….

      • Aaron C. says:

        Oh, you forgot. I also said I did not need a model, two models, three, or all of them, to tell me I don’t believe in snow. I don’t care if any of them show anything for us…..I must STILL believe!!

  52. Pharmist says:

    CB tweet just now: Cats lose again and we get a whole week of arctic air with almost no snow. Bring on the Reds and spring.

    Ruh roh!

    • BubbaG says:

      Dang! That was colder than the temperature. Did someone hijack CBs twitter account or did he step over to the Dark Side?

      I appreciate the candor, none the less.

  53. chrisb says:

    how can someone go to “very much likely” to THREAT MODE to almost no snow 8 hrs apart?

  54. KellyinLouisville says:

    Dead before arrival…this cold was winters last and only hurrah, it’s time to move with the seasons and start focusing on spring. When will we have our first big bout of thunderstorms? Bring on the leaves on the trees and warm sunshine, winter is over.

    • Todd says:

      Agree, Ky area winter weather wise is just as disappointing as the cards and cats tonight, the DOME has spoken!

      • KellyinLouisville says:

        Todd, lets just hope the dome doesn’t show up from June-September. You and I had a tough go of it last summer with rain missing us over and over.

  55. MarkLex says:

    If this doesn’t happen, I wonder if Rolo will really leave the blog for 2 years?

    • BubbaG says:

      I think I saw a man with a big cowboy hat riding a billy goat into the horizon….

      Don’t go Rolo! No snow and no Rolo would be mega lame!

  56. Which Way Wind Is the Wind Blowing says:

    Every time we get excited about a potential snowfall it all falls apart. I dare anybody ever to get on here and say that I have a gut feeling that this is going to be the one. It is always a long shot.

  57. Emc says:

    Refuse to believe it. It’s gonna snow

    • Which Way Wind Is the Wind Blowing says:

      Ky Wildcats will win the SEC championship in football and basketball team will win championship this year. In theory it is possible. Maybe the northern energy will over perform.

  58. Bengalfan says:

    Wow, Chris throwing in tow…he says bring on spring. Truly, truly hate these stupid winters. I’m sick of it…..this blog drives me nuts, bunch of talk bout snow,models, trends, whatever,,sick of the blog, sick of winter, sick! Sick! Sick!

    Oh yeah, cats just lost…sick of seeing our players driving inside, getting challenged and losing the ball ..sloppy! Sick of hearing that some of our players potential nba…seriously,,,need a lot more college. Potential,,ugh where have we heard that before,,potential cold, snow etc….sick of it, you all can put me down for being negative, because I am. Just sick of it. … I look at this site many,too many times a day to see what the weather may do,,,I’m sick of it… new blog will be walking outside a few times a day and see what it is doing. I encourage all of you to do the same.

    • Todd says:

      Love it, sounds like a plan, even the NWS set the ball up for Lucy to jerk it away this time, I knew the blog was to fired up this morning, should have known another let down was just a few hours away!

  59. Aaron C. says:

    Hey, that reminds me. Mr. POWER OF POSITIVITY WHERE ARE YOU? You were here when it was 85 outside in December…

    Janet Jackson….’Where Are You Now”

  60. Dara says:

    He just put the nail in the coffin……UGH!

  61. Wes says:

    What is a person to believe on this weather? It’s hard to trust any run of any computer model.

  62. Weatherman2015 says:

    IF Chris is throwing in the towel, its over. Could be b/c of the Cats loss. BUT, as a meteorologist-to-be, this one is on life-support. One factor on out side is that it has not come on land out.

  63. Weatherman2015 says:

    *our side

  64. chris g in clay county says:

    oh well … wont be the first time a big one turned into poof..
    wonder why nws not mentioning the clipper putting down any snow at all?

  65. chris g in clay county says:

    was a halo around the moon last year when we got that sunday snow in feb? it snowed about 5 to 6 inches back in feburary last year on a sunday. suprized me that it even stuck during daylight hours.

    • Pharmist says:

      the halo around the moon doesn’t necessarily mean snow… it just means precipitation…. HPC calling for a rainy Friday now.

      • Aaron C. says:

        Come on guys, you are scrambling worse than a drunken egg chef on Saturday morning.

        You go from snow to no snow to rain!! HAHAHA!!

  66. Russ says:

    The only guy that called this Winter correctly was WAVE 3’s Andy Weingarten. He’s a part timer there but also works for a private meteorology company. Everyone else swung and missed.

    Anyways, this winter is pretty much over. Enjoy the warm air next week.

  67. Joe T says:

    Bubba…..Chris’ transformation is almost complete. You have done well bringing him to the dark side.

  68. BubbaG says:

    Winter storm threat potential followed basically by “nothing to see here” within hours. Has brother Rolo mind melded with CB?? 😉

    Either that, or CB is messing around just to prove a point?

    Either case, such reversal of apparent fortune is wild. The funny thing is I do not mean that in a good or bad way. Just an observation.

    • Pharmist says:

      We will find out when we wake up in the morning if he is just messing with us… something is making me think he is genuinely upset over this one flaking out.

      • KellyinLouisville says:

        Brian Goode says its a total bust too. When you’ve got two snow loving mets ready to throw in the towel, well, spring brings some fun weather, just no twisters please.

  69. Emc says:

    Honestly I don’t remember one just going poof. I have seen the shifts to the north and seen warm air come into play but the complete POOF. You got tobe kidding me. I just can,t believe it. Maybe we are getting ready to get taught a lesson. Trust no man and trust no model. It is in my hands and I will decide what, when, and how much you will get

  70. Dawnp007 says:

    Heartbroken. That’s all I got. Cannot muster anything else to say.

    • Danny says:

      Oh I can but it would ban me from this site and out of respect for CB and the fellow bloggers I will not. I have a few choice words for the computer models!!!!

  71. Todd says:

    Funny how Chris says bring on the reds, they remind me of the winter storm models on here, get your hopes up only to CHOKE when it really matters, if the reds are your hope, 1990 was the last time they did anything, 1998 winter storm trumps the reds?

  72. Joe says:

    Moving to florida, at least no snow disappointments there. Only difference is they know it isnt going to snow, we somehow believe it will. Better chance of santa, tooth fairy, and easter bunny being real then snow in ky.

  73. Go Cards says:

    Bad night of basketball.

    • BubbaG says:

      I think we all need to think of a happy place. One free of snow and basketball. At least Louisville is a lock for the tournament. If Kentucky gets swept by Florida, it is NIT, yeah you know me.

      • Richmond says:


      • Todd says:

        Really doesn’t matter if This KY team makes the tourney or not we know this team will not make a run for glory anyway this year, just like farmers know, sometimes you get a bad crop even though you prepared for a Goodwin?

      • Go Cards says:

        CB is more like a young Anakin Skywalker. You Bubba are Darth Sidious. You will corrupt him and bring him to the dark side. Rolo is Jar Jar Binks. We just laugh at him.

        • BubbaG says:

          But unlike me, he has the force on his side.

          I like Rolo, but despise Jar Jar. Him and Indy nuking the fridge in The Crystal Skull killed two beloved franchises for me.

  74. MarkLex says:

    For those of us who didn’t get our hopes up, congratulations 🙂

    For those of us who did. Sorry 🙁

  75. Pharmist says:

    Maybe it can be an infamous ‘dusting’ lol

    Still trying to hold onto a glimmer of hope. Please go ahead and pray to your 8lb 6oz new born infant Jesus.

  76. Danny says:

    Well I’m done trying to figure out winters in the Ohio Valley see you guys in the spring. Most frustrating winter ever!!!! The models can just take a long walk off a short pier! I’m keeping it G rated out of respect.

  77. Aaron C. says:

    Computer models will often show something for several days in a row before giving a quick head fake in the 2-4 day out window.—-Chris

    Basketball and snow in the same sentence. Ironic?
    At this point, negative piled on top of more negative is not going to change my faithcast—-hype or not. Even if it did bust, it wouldn’t be the first or the last time.
    So yeah, since it’s not got any backing at this point, I suppose it truly is a wishcast. But wishes do come true….don’t they?

  78. Jonathan says:

    This will be “the one” just watch it will be back stronger and farther north on the models tomorrow……just wait and watch…………………………

  79. Aaron C. says:

    He shoots……he……………..

    We’ll have to wait till Friday, folks. This is a really, really slow moving basketball.

  80. Todd says:

    I hope Chris is not like ky basketball tonight and dropping the ball to soon, Snow is a coming, model jumping is a ugly thing!

    • BubbaG says:

      Not seeing how he can be so gungho and then abruptly change position so concretely. Does not seem to add up since still a few days away. By that premise, why talk storm chance in the first place? Does not compute. So far off the path. Apples and oranges. Meh.

  81. Rachel says:

    I’ve gotta say it gets a little tiring trying to follow these blogs comments… a few hours ago most of you said there would be no way to really know until tomorrow afternoon’s model runs, now you’re all throwing in the towel because of tonight’s. Which is it. I would think since we’ve all seen how little those models truly predict several days out (or even hours out with that last “winter storm that wasn’t) you’d be slightly more reluctant to really call it a done deal this soon.

    • Todd says:

      True that! I’m starting to think Chris is pulling our chain on his true thoughts?

      • BubbaG says:

        Me too, since that is the only thing that seems to make sense. Too much contradiction. CB is better than the Dark Side. We push him BACK into the light! Yeyuusss!

        • Todd says:

          Even the latest NWS thought for Paducah area still calling for 1 in. Snow totals, 2 or 3 inches of snow is still in play for most of ky east of I65! Chris you sly snow puppy?

  82. MikeM says:

    I watched the game. (Yuk) Watched the 27 news, same forecast as at 6 (yuk) then watched Justified on the DVR ( best part of the evening) then I read the blog (double yuk) . Can anyone tell me why they even use the models in winter. Windows are 100% more accurate.

  83. Joe says:

    If i hear next week one more time, i am throwing my phone

  84. Joe T says:

    Hope the makers of Zoloft are not reading the comments…..we would be a targeted group.

  85. Bill L says:

    I’ll take some Zoloft!….waited and waited all week for the attack of Winter…Arctic blast, snow, ice…..all I got was a cold rainbow moon halo…..zzzzz……putting the sleds away for good.

  86. Go Cards says:

    The almighty euro has spoken. Little if any snow for you Kentucky.

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