A Very Quick Update

Good Wednesday evening. I continue to like the Thursday Night and Friday system and this looks to be a fairly decent impact event across much of the state. Light snow will break out across western Kentucky Thursday night and expand north and east from there.

Some thoughts:

– Moisture will increase rapidly from southwest to northeast Thursday night and Friday morning.

– This will be a fairly quick moving system.

– While much of what falls will be snow, southern Kentucky may get in on a nasty mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain for a time.

– Another arctic front arrives Friday night with snow showers and squalls into early Saturday.

How much snow can we expect? I will have a First Call For Snowfall coming up tonight at 11 on WKYT-TV and then here on the blog later tonight.

Have a great rest of the evening and take care.

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99 Responses to A Very Quick Update

  1. pattyversailles says:

    I’ll be in front of the TV waiting!! Thanks CB!

  2. Coffeady says:

    Bet I can tell you where the skeet and freezing rain will fall…..Somerset! Oh we’ll. hoping I am wrong but doubting it. Thanks, Chris. Looking forward to your map and thoughts.

  3. Hope4Snow says:

    Chris, you are such a tease!

  4. In Lincoln County says:

    What is the chance of a snow day in Somerset on Friday??

    • SNOWMAN says:

      Not a good bet. I still ask everyone to compare the amount of snow they have received to the amount that has been FORECAST this winter. Big discrepancy. No one is pegging this winter or lack thereof.

  5. chris g in clay county says:

    meck has rain for most of southern ky i think during his 6 oclock run. i was visting someones house and they were watching meck, thats the forcast i saw on there. 0.3 for clay county total snowfall through fri evening, thats a first call what he says.

  6. SNOWMAN says:

    Wednesday forecast disappeared as did the predicted swath of light snow.
    We’re back to the Thursday night-Friday forecast now which was Friday night-Saturday earlier today. The only thing tougher than being a weather man is being a weather man fan. Good luck, Mr. Bailey.

  7. SNOWMAN says:

    Wednesday forecast disappeared as did the predicted swath of light snow.
    We’re back to the Thursday night-Friday forecast now which was Friday night-Saturday earlier today. The only thing tougher than being a weather man is being a weather man fan. Good luck, Mr. Bailey.

  8. Joey Wilson says:

    I’m a bit confused. Chris seems to think the models are coming “back” to more precip for KY. Both the Louisville and Paducah NWS afternoon discussions are saying lighter amounts. Maybe just eastern KY going to get something decent from this.

    • BubbaG says:

      Not long to find out. CB has been more right than wrong, but the last two years have been funky for all mets. Some more than others.

    • Go Cards says:

      The models were showing basically nothing yesterday. Today 1-3 inches. Few days ago were showing 3-6 inches. It is very easy to be confused if you follow the weather models. It is crazy to believe anything they show anymore.

  9. So, what’s the verdict for Madison County? Any snow or is it a cold rain and change over to snow when the moisture has gone bye-bye? Thanks Chris for all the hard work you do for us snow lovers!

    • BubbaG says:

      Good luck anybody guessing (too much up & down with the models). CB will probably post a map later tonight or early in the AM.

      The one average model trend that seems consistent is in spite of the ups & downs, the overall direction is a relatively lighter event. Perhaps if we got the snow cover today, that would help keep temps down and less of a mix issue for parts of the state.

  10. JJTeach says:

    Oh Chris, us teachers are the ones that want to see that snow map the most but we are also the ones that have to be in bed the earliest. Can you make a special request to post the snow map say around 9:30 or so?? πŸ™‚

    • Rachel says:

      Why do I have a feeling this is gonna be one of those no one takes it seriously at all, we head to school Friday morning and then by 9 am everyone’s freaking out. I hate those days!

      • Andy Rose says:

        happened to bell county last week

        • Rachel says:

          I replied earlier and it didn’t go through I guess! Ack. Yes, I remember that, and it was very dangerous for the buses that got stuck and the students on them. I feel like not much is being said about this system on local media so I don’t expect Fayette county to be paying attention and I highly expect to be there Friday morning. They make their call by 5:30 in the morning so if it’s not snowing by then, we’ll be in school when it hits. Bah.

      • JJTeach says:

        Those days are CRAZY!!! Gosh, I sure hope schools make a decision before the busses start running their routes Friday morning!

  11. EastKyTeacher says:

    WOW! It looks like the snow missed us big time this evening. It’s not even close!

  12. sue(Flatwoods,KY) says:

    they treated US 23 today here in Greenup Co I guess thinking we were going to get that snow this eve, i guess that was alot of money down the drain! Sure hope we get some SNOW here in East KY (Ashland area) Friday!!!!!

    • Joey Wilson says:

      They treated streets in Owensboro the last two days too. My guess is city maintenance workers bored and decided to “test” their equipment. I think we’re in the dreaded dome these days too. Missed two events Christmas week and look to miss this one too. Maybe combined 2″ of snow here this season. Better than last year but still more misses than hits. πŸ™

  13. Israel says:

    Everyone in Florida (where I’m from) wants to see snow but don’t know it they’ll like it. Everyone in Minnesota (where i lived for a year) hates snow, and everyone in Kentucky loves snow. Odd

    • MarkLex says:

      Funny – I have friends in Minnesota and they all LOVE the snow and cold weather. They actually said a lot of people stay there because they love the extremes.

      • BubbaG says:

        Yep, I work with a lot of stores in that area (the whole state) and they were very disappointed about last year’s wimpy winter there. This year is a normal winter for them.

  14. Tom in Rockcastle says:

    30 days until the Reds first spring training game. Clock is ticking toward spring

  15. spencerlady says:

    Roads were treated in Jefferson Co. Tuesday. I noticed roads treated in Spencer today. I, for one, would not mind a snow day Friday.

    • sue(Flatwoods,KY) says:

      i think the roads have been treated so many times for NON snows that when we do get one it sure wont stick to the roads, tooooo much stuff built up!! LOL

  16. Joe says:

    Looking at nws service forecast, high 29 thursday, high 36 friday with sleet/snow/rain, high 29 saturday, imagine that. Always warms up when moisture is around.

  17. james says:

    0z nam comes in with more precipitation. Were trending in the right direction with each run. πŸ™‚ Waiting on GFS now.

  18. Ready4Snow says:

    Definitely more moisture this run and system look like it was moving more North east…Alot of tenn/ky border may have ice /sleet looked like to me..Eastern ky looks like a decent hit but the oc line pretty close..Best run of the day..

  19. DOTsalter says:

    The 00z NAM looks to have more precipitation ( snow ) for central and eastern parts of the states, with snow really falling at 1pm. But it will change Tomorrow. Is there a such thing as WA weatherholics anonymous I feel as if i need to find a meeting in my town.

  20. Todd says:

    Maybe more than an inch for Frankfort? EPIC

  21. DOTsalter says:

    Looks like on the radar a band is breaking off near Covington and heading toward NE Ky maybe even as far SE as Pike Co. Just looks that way. Probably will just lose moisture and evaporate into thin air as soon as it hits the Ky line.

  22. Lincoln says:

    If it snows two inches I will get the blog regulars for the past almost five years tattooed onto my arm!!

  23. Ready4Snow says:

    Of course it’s the nam and we all know it like’s to over do precip…None the less a good run especially the movement N/E…Hopefully other model’s show the same trend…Right now will predict 3-5 for eastern ky…

  24. JJTeach says:

    Somebody has got to post the new NAM snow map.

  25. sue(Flatwoods,KY) says:

    our high temp this afternoon was 24 deg and it is still 24 deg at 10:30! Crazy!

    • Big Papa says:

      Wow, my high was 37 and we’re at 21 right now. The temp dropped like a rock after the sun went down.

      • sue(Flatwoods,KY) says:

        it stayed cloudy, windy and had a few snow showers today between 1:30 and 3:30, temp was 12 this morn, it was a heat wave when we hit 24 deg. lol Ready for some SNOW with this cold air!!!!

  26. WXEMGUY says:

    Here is the 00Z NAM Snowfall Total Maps I am finding online. Jackson, KY Operational Area: http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=JKL
    Louisville, KY Operational Area: http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=LVX

  27. Snow Lover says:

    So what about south central Ky? I’m in Adair County. Any thoughts on snow totals for us??!! Would love some feedback!

  28. OLD SCHOOL WX MET says:

    There was some conversion around 8pm tonight or there abouts referring to “skeet” and “hip hop”. I would like to share a very personal story with my friends here. I had a pet frog once. He liked to hip and hop. He liked hip hop music. Until alas,he hopped on some “skeet” and broke his hip,there for he hops no more. True story….

  29. Go Cards says:

    Funny how the NAM still shows one maybe two inches and everyone is freaking out. Just a day or two ago the NAM was considered garbage. Funny how that works.

  30. kit says:

    Wow……up to 1inch of snow for Louisville. that’s What our meteorologist said. please say he is wrong? πŸ™‚

  31. WXEMGUY says:

    I think folks need to pay less attention too the actual snowfall total output of this particular run (00Z NAM)…and pay more attention to the trend…which is a model that is getting moister and moister with each run…Let’s also not forget to pay attention to Chris…He will be making a first call tonight, and his forecasts are ususally pretty darn good.

  32. Lincoln says:

    Very funny folks, very funny. I hope y’all are simply making fun of me, rather than having no idea what that means in slang terms. http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20101217183427AAB5gNy

  33. Lincoln says:

    Anyone interested come check out my podcast, its my first one so it’ll be rough and its live.

  34. Andy Rose says:

    Chris says just mix for southern ky 1-3 north of laurel and 2-4 for jackson to pike and ashland. Stiffed again

  35. Israel says:

    Nuke-effect snow! I read this interesting article about a powerplant that produced up to an inch of snow! Wow! Human-made snow http://www.climatecentral.org/news/nuclear-snow-power-plant-produces-snow-in-penn-15501 never would’ve thought it was possible…

    • MJ says:

      Same thing happened up in northern Illinois. The large cooling ponds from the nuclear generating stations are quite warm. Add the very cold air blowing across these lakes (some are 2 miles wide and 2 miles long) and you can get localized lake effect or in this pond-effect snow.

  36. Tyler says:

    chris’s first call map on wkyt is not showing anyone above 4″…..as he said though we have 36hrs to go! also shows southern and southeastern Kentucky with freezing rain, sleet and snow!

  37. sue(Flatwoods,KY) says:

    dont know if it is a good spot to be this early or not but the first call map has me in the 2 – 4 in of snow!!!!! Hope that pans out!!!!!!!

  38. Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

    Has the GFS came out.

  39. Tyler says:

    GFS was wimpy!!! weaker than 18z run

    • MJ says:

      If you look at the vertical thermal profiles, you would see why there is not that much snow. The GFS does keep surface temperatures cold, but does bring in a substantial amount of warm air aloft, especially across southern KY.

  40. Tyler says:

    if you all head over to bailey’s facebook page you can see his first call map!

  41. WXEMGUY says:

    Folks…the key to forecasting this stuff is to not pay attention to any one model…but to blend.

    Regarding 00Z GFS…I just looked at it and there is a problem with it. It probably is too warm, but also, has rain wrapping UP the backside into central and eastern KY. Not meteorlogically possible.

  42. Mark says:

    NWS Morristown TN now has Winter Storm Watch out for its coverage area, mainly for freezing rain :(. Of course, Morristown’s jurisdiction is alongside much of southeastern KY.



  43. WXEMGUY says:

    My 2-cents…You can see the problem with the 00Z GFS run here. The moisture is still there, but the P-type is wrong at the end of the system, which throws off those snowfall total maps. In this setup, you do not start as rain and end as snow…So the GFS shows the moisture, but does not show the right snowfall total.

    Also, since the GFS has trended too warm this year, expect is to stay as snow…not end as rain.

    Link: http://coolwx.com/ptype/

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