First Call For Friday Snowfall

Good Thursday, everybody. A fast moving storm system is going to bring a swath of snow and ice to the bluegrass state late tonight into Friday. Today will feature several blog updates coming your way, so I won’t get too long winded with this one.

Let’s break it down with the ever popular headlines…

- A reinforcing shot of arctic air is on the scene today. Temps will generally run in the 20s for afternoon highs.

- An area of low pressure will develop to our southwest tonight and roll eastward across the Tennessee Valley. This will cause light snow and an icy mix to develop across western and southern Kentucky tonight. That will quickly overspread the state Friday morning.

- This is a pretty fast moving system that will push through here on Friday. Much of the main swath of snow and mix will be out of the state by late afternoon.

- We have a frozen ground and that means this will have a fairly high impact on area roads.

- The NAM is colder and shows more precipitation than the GFS. I suspect the models will come into better agreement later today.

- Here’s the infamous First Call For Snowfall…

Special

- I can promise you changes will likely be made to that map later today. The final call will come later this evening.

- Southern parts of the state have me a bit concerned because of the freezing rain and sleet threat. It could get pretty icy in some areas.

- Another arctic front will move through here Friday night and this will bring a round of snow showers and squalls into Saturday morning.

I will have updates coming later today. Make it a great one and take care.


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103 Responses to First Call For Friday Snowfall

  1. In Lincoln County says:

    No snow love again :(

    • WXEMGUY says:

      Chickens have not hatched yet…stop counting them. It’s a very reasonable first call based on the data, and Chris is doing really good, but if the models say more moisture tomorrow…then your total would go up. That is not impossible just yet…hoever, the data does not show this as of right now.

  2. Wayne says:

    ugh! More ice. Rather have rain than ice.

  3. Lonnie says:

    Do you actually have any ideal what the weather is going to be? That first call map is all over the place. Is this storm going to be another one of those duds that gets blown up like in the past? Case in point was the big impact set to hit Western Kentucky last month. That sure turned out to be what it was predicted to be didn’t it!!!

  4. gumby says:

    how is tennesee under winter storm watch and morthern ky is suppose to get more snow than southern which is closer to tennesee

  5. Ryan says:

    Chris has me in the 1 inch or less zone while the NWS is giving this:
    “Snow before 4pm, then freezing rain likely. High near 30. South wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.”
    It will be interesting to see who’s right.

  6. Jamie says:

    Walked around the back yard the other day despite the cold making some mental plans for my flower beds. Don’t usually do that until I have decided to be done with winter in my mind. I said before I don’t like snow and cold, so I’m in the minority here. Yet I did grow up in the 70′s and 80′s, and I do like big weather events. Winters for so long now have been such a drab disappointment in that regard that frankly, I’m ready for warm temps, flowers, sun, and… baseball!!

    May I very respectfully make a suggestion for the blog? Please choose words carefully. Words are powerful…but if they lose their power from over-use, then so does your communication. A 1-3″ snow event is no more a “winter storm” than this week has been an “arctic blast.” It appears with this next event, folks East and South of us will get a true winter storm. No doubt folks from Chicago to International Falls are experiencing a true arctic blast. But here in Central KY, the heart of the mythical “dome”… perhaps not so mythical … we haven’t really had either one, and winter simply leaves me wanting … something else. I cannot wait for summer. I do hope it isn’t has hot as the last one. But if it is, even that will be better than what we have out there for January.

    Please don’t take my suggestion about words as any kind of criticism. Mr. Bailey, you are without a doubt in my mind, the best forecaster in this region, and I know winter is is a tough card to read around here. Come what may, I will be a faithful reader each day of every season.

    • Lynn says:

      Couldn’t have said it better!

    • Waffles says:

      I didnt even have to pay for that book

    • MarkLex says:

      Perhaps modified arctic air would have been a better word? The NWS also used arctic air. It must have been arctic air to be able to sustain highs upper teens to around 20 with full sun and ZERO snow on the ground. As far as the winter storm, it was supposed to be a winter storm, but in 2013, it’s painfully obvious our weather models (for our area) aren’t of much help during winter weather, so I think forecasters pretty much have to wing it.

  7. Heat Miser says:

    nothing happening tomorrow except i’m moving in … 54 deg Mon, 62 deg Tues, 60 deg Wed … hahaha i’m back, i’m back ….. winter warlock is history, never to return. better start getting out the spring clothes cause i’m back baby
    booohahahahaha

    • bjenks says:

      Heat Miser…..Have you looked past Wed. The cold coming later next week into the following looks to be as cold if not colder than this weeks Artic Intrusion. Winter is not over and WE WILL have our Old School snow before it is done. Might not bust any trends, but the set up through Feb. will be one to watch if you are a snow lover. I will enjoy the thunderstorms and small warmup next week, but don’t put away the winter clothes just yet. We are just now getting started.

      • Heat Miser says:

        brewhaha
        getting started for what — next week ??? you know enough next weeks will eventually be spring.

        • bjenks says:

          And then SUMMER and then FALL and then back to doing what we all have been doing since later November…WISHING FOR A BIG SNOW!!!!!!!

      • Jake says:

        I admire your optimism, bjenks. We need more people like you on this blog!

        • KellyinLouisville says:

          I admire it too, however misguided it might be. We’ll see on another “arctic blast” but right now it’s looking like highs in the upper 30′s. Hopefully it will be a little more arctic and a little less blast but I’m not holding my breath. Like Heat Miser said, after a few more “next weeks” it will be spring.

  8. Weatherdadof2 says:

    Once again, much ado about nothing, at least for those of us in the ice to rain area. It warms up again to rain after a week of temps in the teens. I am so ready for Spring.

  9. SNOWMAN says:

    Last night’s snow never appeared….did anyone else notice? Not a flake of the coating. Would hate to call weather in KY.

    Still say graph snow forecast vs. actual snow and that will show the difficulty in KY forecasting. Think about it….Ohio…snow……Tennessee….rain…..KY….????

  10. Char says:

    Thank you Chris for all your hard work of keeping us informed and ready for weather systems.
    I will be traveling today and tomorrow, and I will be watching the blog closely as I know you keep our safety in mind.

  11. Joey Wilson says:

    Thanks, Chris, for all you do. I guess anything can happen but this looks like yet another disappointing winter “storm.” Oh well, I guess trace to 1″ snow is better than 35 and cold rain.

    It warms up big time early week, then more cold and then we have 4-6 weeks of winter left. Is it too much to ask to get just one 4-6″ snow for us snow-starved geese before this season ends?

  12. wantin some snow says:

    I want some snow!!!

  13. MarkLex says:

    Joey – this winter has definitely been a downer. The last grasp of hope is that so many winters of the past were also downers up until Feb & Mar when all H^** broke loose. Everyone ready for spring at that point only to get anything BUT.

  14. LD says:

    I don’t think snow is possible now, all of our good fortune was channeled into that Miami-Duke game. Go ‘Canes!

  15. BubbaG says:

    Folks, the rolling outlook changes for the Friday event went up and down, but the average overall direction has been a lighter event. We needed the snow from the system that missed us yesterday to help the atmosphere out. This probably would have been a decent snow, were it not for that. Snow tends to beget snow.

    Since the trend is for a lighter event, CBs map is probably good. I expected warm air to draw more moisture and therefore more ice to more people, so good that CB thinks it will not be as widespread.

    This could have been a big surprise, but mainly ice with a little snow on top.

    • BubbaG says:

      I meant lighter snow event.

    • LD says:

      It’s a good thing we had all that snow cover to our north a couple of weeks ago to help the snows roll in for us.

      Honestly, we just need to get warmer and get some rain. I don’t know about you yankees up there, but our reservoir is still about 3.5 feet too low. Water, I can drink but hype I cannot.

    • KellyinLouisville says:

      I see a fancy all lit up radar tomorrow with nothing hitting the ground due to the very dry air.

  16. Bernard P. Fife says:

    Boo, Boo…hiss Boo!!! No snow love here again :(

  17. Lisa says:

    Thanks for all your work, Chris.
    Weather in Ky is a nightmare to forecast and do an awesome job.

    So disappointed with no snow again. Friends up north keep sending me pix of their b/c they don’t want it. #Jealous

  18. Andy Rose says:

    Mostly a freezing rain event for Southern KY I think since it will be all rain falling hitting frozen surfaces.

  19. Cosmokramer says:

    Gypped once again…is that how you spell gypped?…in the dictionary under gypped it should read…”no snow…see KY for illustration.”

  20. Ready4Snow says:

    The Euro got our hopes up 3 day’s ago by showing possible 8 inches only to say fooled you…Mean Mean model go to your room…overnight runs were not to kind…Nam and Canadian still showing decent moisture so who knows…Looks like just enough to cause a headache traveling friday morning..

    • Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

      You need to change your header to Ready4rain. If you loved rain the models would be correct 99.9% of the time.

      • Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

        lol

        • Ready4Snow says:

          Actually i do like the rain…Good for water tables this time of year…Take pride in growing my tomato’s..Seem’s like every time i hear the wind blow it’s usually coming from a mule’s arse…lol…

  21. Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

    This winter cannot end soon enough. If Louisville receives more than a trace I will be surprise. The only way it is going to snow here is from an unorthodox freak system of nature. All I ask for is that one system a year puts down an accumulation of more than six inches.

    • Danny says:

      I dont get you folks that live in Louisville. So far officially Louisville has had 3.5 inches of snow about a month ago NE Jefferson county had reports of 4 to 5 inches. Now granted it wasnt county wide but it did happen. Louisville is only a inch off what the there snow total should be at this point.

      • KellyinLouisville says:

        I never saw anywhere near that amount. At my house in the Highlands, maybe a half inch of snow at best, maybe.

    • E-TownKY says:

      At least the ‘ville got some this year. E-town is wearing her dome proudly this year so far. :/

  22. rolo says:

    folks nothing sret in stone, TENN weather forcasting a ALL SNOW event for SE KY. growing up I watch east Tenn weather for our area, that was well before WYMT was ever born and well ther nailed it 99 percent of the time.

    and fact is the precip[ going be here for snow, only thing is system moving so fast, but nothing really got its act together yet, u can see the beginngs of the storm on ur satlite/rada, I think the storm wil slow done a bit on next few runs.

    • bjenks says:

      ROLO….It had better slow down. Not sure what the blog would do with out you for TWO YEARS….HA HA….

      Now casting will only be fun to watch if you are north or south of the river. Lou. looks like it won’t receive but an inch if that.

    • BubbaG says:

      Not so sure a lot of folks want a slower system, since means more time for warmer air to draw in feeding more moisture and ice. This does not seem a mainly snow maker for a lot of folks. It could have been with snow cover already in place, but that system missed by about 100 miles. At least.

  23. Willie says:

    Should be an interesting day tomorrow with schools especially in Central Kentucky. Do they risk sending them and then send them home early or call off in anticipation? When is the snow supposed to start in the Lexington area?

    • BubbaG says:

      After the infamous burn about eleven years ago where school systems cancelled school the day before for a big snow forecast that did not yield one flake- schools stopped doing the preemptive for snow.

    • Leslie says:

      Having boys in FCPS they will wait to make that call tomorrow morning,,, if roads are still fine then they will go to school. Only dismiss early if roads will get bad. From the sounds of this snow,,, I’d bet they will have school all day… BUMMER!!! I know I could use a snow day,,, I’d even take an early dismissal at this point :)

      • In Lincoln County says:

        I think the schools in the mix zone will have a better chance of school being out. Buses can run in snow but, ice is another story.

    • Snowteach says:

      Oh yes, the timing is EVERYTHING….. Make lesson plans for tomorrow or no?

    • Willie says:

      I think some of the schools with rural roads may look at the radar and do a 1 hour delay to see what it does, then make a call from there.

  24. Lincoln says:

    Our best hope is for colder than expected temps to increase the snow ratios.

  25. snowlover says:

    Are the computer models not looking anymore promising this morning? Hey, Rolo, I’m a in Clay County as well…what’s your take for us?? Rain, sleet, snow…all the above?? Thanks in advance!

  26. Wes says:

    This is already a bust…what is on the way? I saw some temps for next week and saw 50′s…

  27. cmchrisreece says:

    If Stu Silberman were still superintendent for FCPS, I’d say a snow day was a good chance for the timing of tomorrow. But I don’t think I trust Tom. I think they will send Fayette County kids to school in the snow even if we do end up with a 3 inch snowfall. Heck, I believe he’d even send us during an all out winter storm. But either way, we shall see. My hope is that this snow system plays out to the fullest. But no matter how much I have faith and hope, I can’t get the dome out the back of my mind.

  28. Mark says:

    Almost all of Tennessee now under either Winter Storm Warning, Winter Storm Watch or Winter Weather Advisory for freezing rain. Ugh! :( (I’m in Nashville area). Besides TN, KY counties along the TN line need to be especially on guard for ice.

    Looking ahead, the SPC has expanded the area for early next week (Tuesday into Wed) that could experience severe t-storms. More of western parts of both TN and KY are now included. Still a long ways out so forecast is of course subject to revision, but models are showing a twister or two could be possible considering predicted good shear and dewpoints, although hopefully this will be more west of our area and not a repeat of the Feb 2008 Super Tuesday outbreak. Might want to check now that your weather alert radios and other alert systems are working.
    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

  29. Woodsman says:

    Picked up 8″ last night, looks like more to come, thanks chris!

  30. Joyce says:

    So is it looking good or bad for tomorrow? Winter weather being very good.

    • BubbaG says:

      Even the good would be bad, since warm air appears to be spoiling another event, as usual. Ice seems a main player for a lot of people, so even good is bad.

      Hopefully it will push through quickly if ice.

  31. rolo says:

    going a BUNCH of suprided people tomm, fact is ALL SCHOOLS in S/SE KY should shut down tomm, no use waiting to in morning etc. just call school off and be safe.
    its going be ROUGH OUT on roads tomm folks in these areas and I GURANTEE THAT. now warmer air works in by afternoon and COULD change border couties over to ALL RAIN.

  32. chrissomerset says:

    With the potential for ice here in southern ky, why has any watches or advisory been issued? Is the office in Jackson dropping the ball, again?

    • BubbaG says:

      I think too many waffles for outlooks and forecasts, plus differing forecasts for this event means nobody really knows.

      CB should trash the models and use the Force. Maybe the great Brian Collins can be his spiritual Jedi :) He was a great old school met.

    • Cole in McCreary says:

      I agree, if we do get it, a lot of folks get caught out. We have tornado watches, why not ice watches?

  33. Todd says:

    Pretty sad state of affairs when a lot of us are holding our breath for 1 inch of snow, we finally get decent cold air in place and moisture hides again, it is safe to say moisture and cold air have a estranged relationship, we need to get them into counseling!

    • BubbaG says:

      The 33 and above rule for most system moisture seems almost a standard point of science for us now. A Kentucky law, especially for the center.

  34. Bobt says:

    Only in Kentucky could you have an artic outbreak that produces mixed precipitation for half the state. I am ready for the warm up and hope it holds on for a while. Sad state of affairs when people are getting excited for an ankle biter at the end of January. Maybe would be exciting for a late November early December system, but not late January. Not had a measurable amount of snow in Knox Co. this year and really could care less if we do.

  35. Jim says:

    This is one time I will disagree with Chris. First time in a long time since I have. I see Southeastern KY getting atleast 3-6″.

  36. TBone says:

    Snow Dome. Maybe I can jinx it!!

  37. Shawon says:

    Today’s record low in Lexington is -21 set back in 1963. Is that the all time record for Lexington? I thought -20 back in 1994 was the record but looks like I was mistaken the past 19 years…

  38. May snowchase up to NE Kentucky Saturday AM. Of course, if multiple inches of snow doesn’t fall, I’ll probably postpone for a better storm. Anyone know any good hills up that way?

  39. Howard in Somerset says:

    I think we are lucky to live here,not too hot in the summer or too cold in the winter. Never enough snow to ever really get tired of it,like they do up north. Plus the weather can change quickly and act completely opposite of the forecast from just 24 hours out. This is a tough weather forecast area… God controls the snow reserves,its snowed big here before and will again. Just enjoy watching it all either come together or fall apart… Think snow!!

  40. Andy Rose says:

    Theme for southern KY people

    ;)

  41. Joyce says:

    Anyone know if things have changed since Chris updated ?

  42. Wes says:

    Has he updated? What did he say?

  43. Todd says:

    This little storm is less than 24 hours away and still no advisories issued anywhere in the state, that tells me this is a now cast storm because it is to late for a forecast?

  44. kywatchman says:

    Watched the KYT weather at noon…wonder if Todd Borek is still around…

  45. Mike S says:

    I like CB’s map though still awaiting this afternoon’s runs (not expecting much change, maybe a little wetter).

    My first call is actually quite similar except I posted possible ice accumulations.

    Expect WWA to be issued for at least parts of the state generally along and east of I-65.

  46. rolo says:

    WYMT, both east Tenn channels as well say ALL SNOW for MOST OF THE AREA.

    the SILENCE u here is MANY biting their nails asa they are WORRIED about a SUPRISE, or in some cases EXCITED about a SUPRISE.

    I stick by my snow 3-8 inches, I posted I think it was yesterday morning or night before last.

    now as of middday today my thoughts havnt change on bit for my area and rest of SE KY. i live in Clay Co.

    its going snow!!! its going closer to the border mix with ICE especially futher in the day we go tomm, but I think Clay,Leslie,London will stay mostly snow, with some mix.

    I see some good moisture coming into these areas and could see it coming down at a good clip at times. nowgo look at ur SATILITE and u can see the 2 piecies of energy.

    there close to coming together, and u see nothing on radar and u say WHAT??

    that right its going POP UP QUICKLY and until it does NOBODY truly knows. but models tell u so, but SUPRISES are never knownnnnnnnnmmmm till they come and bring u SNOWWWWWWWWW!!

  47. rolo says:

    so go watch ONE TREE HILL on soap channel and come back bout dark this evening and we should no more.

  48. alena says:

    I just looked the radars and nothing is showing up anywhere. so where is this snow or rain coming from?

  49. Southeast says:

    Middlesboro and Bell Co schools have done called off for tomorrow. They remember the so called dusting that was forecasted last Thursday and we received 5-6″ of snow. Typical Jackson.

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