Thursday Evening Update

Good Thursday evening, gang. A quick hitting snow and ice event is on tap for late tonight into Friday. Much of the state is now under a Winter Weather Advisory

Advisory

Snowfall

My latest snowfall map is relatively unchanged from the first call. I will have a final call for snowfall coming later tonight.

Have a great evening and take care.


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133 Responses to Thursday Evening Update

  1. JJTeach says:

    What time frame do you expect this snow to begin in the Frankfort/Lexington areas Chris? 4am? 6am? 8am?

  2. Logan - Mason Co. says:

    Cant wait till we get this snow event going!

  3. Andy Rose says:

    This winter has been one let down after another. Rain and freezing rain again for us Southern KY folks

  4. Marsha says:

    Now mr bailey you just got Morgan co 1to 3 but that’s ok I take it just remember Chris how much we love what you do for us….

  5. BubbaG says:

    Wonder what percent of this will get virgatized?

  6. Nessa says:

    Oh no, you left west ky out. Our weather people aren’t very reliable so I come to your site. :-)

  7. Chris Mercer says:

    Hey Bubba–for once I’m in the 1 to 3 inch range with you! Remember, per Todd’s rule, anything more than 1 inch in EPIC! I’ve had one epic snow this winter–time to share the love with you! :)

    • Chris Mercer says:

      On second glance, you are more solidly in the 1 to3 inch range that i am in Lawrenceburg. You must have done something to bust the dome!!!

      • BubbaG says:

        The dome has a dry atmosphere on its side, so virga could be a common word tomorrow.

        Please keep in mind the dome does not care about such petty snows. It works hard with its model minions in building up hopes of something bigger and then crushing all snow lovers in its wake ;)

  8. Lincoln says:

    Pretty excited for a quick shot of snow, wohoo!!! 1-3..I don’t think we will get 3 in Lexington, but we have already had one over achiever.

  9. Chris Mercer says:

    Temp in Lawrenceburg is 20 with a dewpoint of -1. Another virga storm?

    • BubbaG says:

      Since a fast system, at least half of the totals could be evaporated before anything falls.

      Mets could be singing tomorrow:

      Don’t blame it on the sunshine, don’t blame it on the moonlight, blame it on the Virga!

  10. sue(Flatwoods,KY) says:

    well i went from 2 – 4 inches down to 1 – 3 inches, hope we do get something out of this!!!!! Have family flying in to Huntington tom afternoon wonder if they will have any delays?

  11. Coffeady says:

    And as usual, the tropics of southern Ky will likely wind up with a bit of snow and a cold rain.

    • BubbaG says:

      I would say there is always next week, but that is every week until probably spring.

      Notice next week the 33 degree rule is in full force. Moisture will be around when temps are above 32 and then a teeny bit of snow at the end of the week. Boo!

  12. Weatherdadof2 says:

    Schools closing everywhere for tomorrow, especially in the ice zone. We will be happy and take what we get!!!! It’s so nice to know you’re off before bedtime!

    • KellyinLouisville says:

      As a teacher in Jefferson County, glad we’ll be in session. We have a week long winter break next month that could be used for make ups. I want that whole week off. Between the weak winters and the fact that city road crews have gotten really, really good at what they do, It has been years since we missed a day around here.

  13. Todd says:

    The ducks and geese are hoping for a warmup, the lake Behind the house is finally frozen over, I think most have flown off to find some open water, now a little snow on top that would look good??

  14. Brandon says:

    Can someone explain to me how it can stay below freezing all day at my house, and I’m getting freezing rain and yet it’s 25 degrees outside. Does not make sense.

    • BubbaG says:

      Basically, there is a layer of warm air in between the upper atmosphere and the surface, so turns to rain and then freezes when hits the ground.

    • Go Cards says:

      Because up in the atmosphere It will be above freezing. Liquid falls from the clouds and freezes at the surface. It could be -20 at the surface but if its 33 or above in the atmosphere freezing rain is the result.

      • Todd says:

        I wonder what the coldest freezing rain event ever recorded is, I have heard of it in the teens before but I doubt it has happened in the single numbers?

      • Go Cards says:

        Sleet happens because you have a warm layer and a cold layer above the surface. Basically it falls as frozen precip from a cloud. Hits the warm layer and melts and refreezes in the cold layer.

  15. lee2leaky says:

    Warm air is coming over the top of the cold, so the prec falls as rain freezes on contact or falls as sleet if there is enough cold air.

  16. Bill says:

    1 inch or less….zzzzzzzzzz

  17. br says:

    I live in taylor county(the county in the center of Ky shaped like a heart), I really don’t know what to expect…Lol

  18. Todd says:

    Just read where northern Minnesota has snow ratio of 30 to 1 tonight with temps near 0 as it is falling, we get Virga at 30 degrees and yet it snows up their with dew points below 0??

  19. bjenks says:

    Just a quick thought…Generally by now we can at least see where the moisture is coming from and start now casting. There is nothing showing up on the Radar to even start tracking. Moisture starved is the truth. I quess we have to wait until Next WEEK or Next Month or Next Year….

    • BubbaG says:

      Even if moisture starved, you should still see it on the radar if the precipitation is evaporating. I think the system is supposed to build up just west of Kentucky, so will be later tonight.

  20. cjmajorgirl24 says:

    I just need enough snow, for snow cream!! (and yep I am dancing-and NOPE i will not share a pic-) I might need a job in law enforcement one day-lol!!

  21. DougT10 says:

    Winter storm warnings up in GA for snow and ice really weird that southern KY
    is going to get freezing rain. I also thought the higher up in the atmosphere you went the colder it got that’s why why higher elevations usually get more snow correct or is that wrong.

    • KellyinLouisville says:

      Generally that is true and I suspect that the snow for Georgia will be in the mountains of northeast Georgia, some of which are over 4000 feet. But the thing is, you often get some pretty dramatic temperature inversions. When I lived at 4700 feet at Snowshoe, WV, we would often be 20 degrees warmer than in the valleys, almost always at night. This is especially true in the week after a big cold front has come through and during the summer when summit temps at night would be mid 50′s while the valley would be in upper 30′s. this would reverse during the day as the valley would warm up to upper 70′s and up top we would stay in low 60′s for highs.

    • Tyler says:

      the winter storm warning there is for Freezing Rain!

  22. teach says:

    Going out on a limb here, but I think this system is going to overachieve. Time will tell, but I posted it for all to see. And as far as the Dome’s run, it too shall fall, To quote Master Snowda,”Snow or no snow, there is no virga.”

  23. JJTeach says:

    So, if the new NAM shows more moisture for Southern KY as Chris’s latest tweet says, does that mean the moisture if “beefed up” a little a little bit for Central and Northern KY too?? Anybody know?

  24. Israel says:

    My gut says 1in or less for Lexington, but maybe I am wrong…

  25. Cosmic Wrangler says:

    There is ring around the moon tonight.

  26. MikeM says:

    I’m gonna miss Rolo.

  27. BubbaG says:

    Looks like southern Kentucky might get that surprise mentioned earlier if the new NAM pans out. CB just tweeted.

    Half inch of ice possible, so let us hope the NAM is too slow with the system!

    • Todd says:

      Half inch of ice is very dangerous, but on the flip side of that some folks could get 5 inches of snow!

      • BubbaG says:

        Yep. If CB believes in the NAM, he will update his maps. IF.

        • MJ says:

          While the new NAM run does show an increase in precipitation amounts across the south, it should be noted that the NAM has been overdoing precipitation amounts this winter. Just something to keep in mind. If the NAM does end up verifying with its precipitation amounts, there could be a lot of ice down state (south of the Cumberland Pky).

  28. Israel says:

    Here’s a good map from the NWS saying where freezing rain, sleet and snow is gonna be. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/wxstory.php?site=lmk

    • BubbaG says:

      Seems about right if fast and the air needs to evaporate part of the system just to fall. If the current NAM is right, it would imply a slower system and should mean more snow as well.

      Folks to the south do not want the NAM to be correct.

  29. Joey Wilson says:

    “Next week” is severe wx and tornado threat, not snow. Soooo, we’ll probably get a blizzard! I’m about done with yet another disappointing “winter”.

  30. KeavyMan01 says:

    Looks like once again, unless something drastically changes, Keavy, London, Corbin, Barboursville will again miss the snow. As alot of people has mentioned already, this will just add on top of what they got after Christmas. That means my neck of the woods will vet 0″ AGAIN! So far this winter season, Keavy has received just enough snow to dust the windshield which was so lightly done, I could still see inside the car. Well all you people crying because this snow isn’t as big as 1st thought of stop & think of us that has had no snow on the ground yet. ZELCH! NODDA! NOTHING! As you go on your way tomorrow with 1-3″ predicted…we get ICE AGAIN! Please…quit crying and think about those of us that see’s no snow and been getting the ice!

    Love ya ll but this whining over small amounts makes me sick at my stomach knowing I am getting ICE yet once again. I’d be happy for 1″ of snow. Wish for once you all get the ice and we down here could get vthe snow. Then you can cry!

  31. MikeM says:

    Winter X Games started today on ESPN. This is about as close to snow deprivation therapy as you can get. I recommend it for what it’s worth.

  32. Ready4Snow says:

    ROLO Phone Home…

  33. Go Cards says:

    The NAM looked about the same snowfall wise for the rest of us. 1-3 and thats about it. Starting to wonder if this will be a mix situation and those numbers may be too high lol.

  34. KeavyMan01 says:

    <~~~~ SNOW STARVED AND DEPRIVED. Heading to the sunny shore of FUNNY FARM as I have once again been thrown down with a heavy force named ice. Maybe when tornado season begins, I will be be better and watch the storm chasers. Until then…off to the FUNNY FARM (while making googly eyes and funny noises with my mouth as they strap me down with something named ICE! Not again).

  35. Heather says:

    So what happened to rolo? He was one of my favorites on here!!! :(

  36. Todd says:

    Bright side note, I’ll bet perfect north & Paoli in southern Indiana has great MAN made base, I’m thinking might be time to go vent snow frustration out with modern tech snow sledding/tubing and hope for real stuff in February :)

    • Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

      Have you ever tried to ski on man made snow? If your a beginner it totally sucks. It is real hard to rut the skies. It is like driving on sleet. The good news is that if you can ski on that hockey ring at Paoli you can ski almost anywhere.

      • BubbaG says:

        Wipe out! Seen some doozies at PN. LOL ones and “Call a doctor!” ones.

      • KellyinLouisville says:

        I agree, if you can ski anywhere in the east you are automatically a better skier than the spoiled brats out west.

        • Todd says:

          I’m a inner tuber, General Butler ski trip many years ago mixed with bourbon told me do not stand up and try to glide down a steep hill on ice or snow, I still have scares!

  37. Crystal In Pikeville says:

    Well just heard from a friend that school was just called off in Pike County for tommorow they said they got a prerecorded call from the Board.

  38. Brandon says:

    Could this turn into an all snow event? It’s 24 degrees outside.

    • Big Papa says:

      The surface temperature was never the problem. What is going to cause the freezing rain is above freezing temperatures in the atmosphere that causes the snow to melt and freeze on contact with the below freezing surface.

  39. WXEMGUY says:

    I guess one of the interesting things I will be tracking this evening with interest are the tendancies with the dew point and relative humidity. Right now, central KY reporting locations are running in the 32-43% range whith the relative humidities. Of course, with 9 hours or so before things get going…will be looking to see these climb. Question is…how much? The moisture will be there aloft…but low level moisture values (humidity levels) will ultimately determine precip totals.

  40. Ready4Snow says:

    Well let’s hope our friend’s to the south stay safe….A little Snow then topped off with possible half inch freezing rain would be very bad….

  41. rolo says:

    one of the greatest POST in the history of ther BLOG I just took 45 minutes composing and it aint showing up, UNREAL.

    in short it was my so long letter, JUST IN CASE its weas needed.

    seriously it was a thing of beauty, so if this post dont go thru I think im blocked.lol

  42. rolo says:

    I just bne honest, I be like the KEN MELLONS song,

    I WENT CRAZY for awhile after 2 days without u all. but I try, but I did insert I step away till a REAL SNOWSTORM finally came,

    i been talking bout WINTERS OF my childhood, Brian Collins,Brad James, Frank Faulkner and watching it snow with my DEAD DADDY, and it doesnt show up on the blog. im kinda sad right now.

  43. WXEMGUY says:

    00Z GFS looks too warm. I’m thinking NAM is more realistic.

  44. troy says:

    WBIR and WATE Knoxville mets reporting a mostly snow event to the north of the Tennessee/Kentucky state line. This would certainly be good news for Middlesboro/Bell and other southern counties. Crossing fingers for little to no ice…. Looking forward to how this plays out.

  45. Todd says:

    Chris down played this event even more tonight at 11, saying most places maybe an inch and a little more to the east, this is looking more like a deck duster for Frankfort area!

  46. rolo says:

    yep GFS has pretty much no snow.

    • Israel says:

      I don’t know if you’ll read this but I’m new to the blog and Kentucky and I hear just about EVERYONE talk about rolo. So its u?

  47. Ukstudent says:

    Anyone see Chris’s latest tweet a few moments ago? Said short range models are showing a lot of moisture now.

  48. Todd says:

    Chris twit, thing are looking more moist, are you trying to keep my hopes up Chris, I was thinking about sleep until I heard that?

    • BubbaG says:

      Yet he apparently downplayed the event on TV. So confused, but not expecting much snow here in Richmond. Ice or virga might be the only things on the menu.

      Whatever it be, it be.

  49. WXEMGUY says:

    This system is starting to show it’s face on satellite. To me…this looks like it might have a little extra umphhh out of the gate than I expected. I look forward to watching this over next few hours with interest to see if that’s true…it’s not impossible that north and south systems phase prior to Kentucky…Maybe…just maybe so…
    Satellite: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/comp/ceus/flash-ir4.html
    Water Vapor Satellite: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/comp/ceus/flash-wv.html

  50. Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

    The GFS run was awful for Lou. Oh well we will get them next week.lol

  51. Todd says:

    Chris saying more moisture for many? Who and where MANY is located is the big question?

  52. CoalMinerD says:

    I work underground right on the KY/VA border and we still have snow on the ground from the previous event. Hoping we do not get a bad ice event. It makes it miserable for everybody. Gues if it comes a good one I will be taking the ATV to work. Brrr.

  53. Carrie says:

    In the Grayson area the snow is light, but starting to dust the ground.

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