A Fun Week Ahead

Good Sunday to one and all. We often talk about how the weather around here is never boring and the next week and change is going to exhibit A. Whatever type of weather floats your boat… we have it coming over the next 5 days.

The fun times begin with much milder air pushing toward the state later today. This comes in the way of a warm front working from southwest to northeast late this afternoon into the evening. This will cause clouds to increase and may touch off a few showers into this evening. Some of the models have been hinting on a bit of a mix across northern Kentucky on the leading edge to that stuff.

Take a look at just how warm the temps will get over the next few days…

GFS 2

That’s a heck of a temperature gradient setting up on that Tuesday map. 90s show up across south Texas with teens in the upper midwest. Those teens are just the tip of the iceberg as a major blast of arctic air dives into the country from Canada.

That air pushes back in here late Wednesday as a powerful cold front swings through here. This front is likely to produce a line of showers and thunderstorms and some of the storms could be strong. The setup with this system is one that can produce wind damage across the Ohio Valley.

Temps Wednesday may start near 60 and then fall toward freezing or below by late in the afternoon. That means a good shot to go from rain and storms to light snow…GFS 3

A deep trough will then dig in and set up shop across the eastern part of the country. Several systems will dive into the base of this trough and one or two of those will try to develop into something. Many of the models have been targeting Thursday night and Friday for such a system. Here’s the Canadian…CanadianThat would make for a snowy welcome to February.

Make it a great Sunday and take care.


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78 Responses to A Fun Week Ahead

  1. Dawnp007 says:

    Good grief, Charlie Brown!

  2. BubbaG says:

    Thanks CB! My guess is all of nature’s critters will get real confused this coming week.

  3. Joey Wilson says:

    Haven’t seen a clipper provide anything more than a dusting in western KY in many years. We’re either out of luck or long overdue.

    • Joey Wilson says:

      My bad, not a clipper. Looks like more of a southern possible event on Thursday. Hopefully, cold weather will hold just enough.

    • Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

      If you get a chance go to the wave 3 blog site. Brian Goode gives a great explanation on what might occur this week. (Sorry Chris if I am giving another site a plug). As of now West Ky is sitting pretty if the clipper actually dives into Tn. I am still skeptical that this may occur.

  4. Coffeady says:

    Well that just proves the old adage about weather in Ky. Thanks Chris. You are right. It’s going to be an interesting week, for sure! Charlie Brown, for the next couple of days, forget the football and get out the baseball glove!

    • BubbaG says:

      Words to the wise :)

      Best to think of positive thoughts for spring, since it is what it is. I think folks have seen enough finally to not get bent out of shape in what the models are saying. The only frozen stuff they get correct is ice.

  5. james says:

    Just wish we didn’t have to pay for the warm temps with rain. Anyway, thanks Chris. Have a good Sunday all.

    • BubbaG says:

      Kentucky winters “33 degree rule” for most moisture is a hard one to except. Boo to the rule!

      • Todd says:

        Dang that trend, below freezing for almost a week with no moisture, and then within hours after going above freezing here comes the moisture??

        • BubbaG says:

          Yep, but CB would be all over it now if he thought this had a chance, just a few days away.

          The 33 degree rule applies and backed up by a very looonnngg trend. I would bank on nothing until them money is in the bank (snow on the ground beyond the usual scraps).

          Now, IF an outlook/forecast were to actually pan out, THEN folks could be excused for excitement, since THEN there is a trend start to support it.

    • Joey Wilson says:

      Haven’t seen the 0 freezing line that far south in awhile. Probably 20 degrees and freezing rain for KY, Charlie Brown. :)

  6. Ben in Lexington says:

    Eventually Charlie Brown will get to kick that old football and him and Lucy will fly off in the sunset on Linus’ magic blanket. That is why I will just keep waiting waiting. It may not happen this year or next,but one day it will. Gonna be positive and the worst that can happen soon is a little ole thing called spring. Have a blessed day CB and all fellow bloggers and bloggetts.

  7. Ready4Snow says:

    LOL…Looks like rolo was running the nam this morning from his basement…Or one of his goats…rolo phone home..

    • Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

      I do not believe a major snowfall is going to happen mid week. The NAM did leave a decent amount of moisture after the cold front smashes into this area. I like the GFS model better because historically it is telling the same story that always happens here. The majority of the snow will be to the north.

    • BubbaG says:

      I saw a man with a big cowboy hat riding an old school billygoat into a two year sunset.

      The only thing that can bring him back is the call of big snow.

    • Dawnp007 says:

      Law mercy! I have cracked up!!

  8. misty says:

    Even NOAA is forecasting snow wed night-the rest of the wk

  9. Brandon says:

    3-4 days out and it shows the Cold air catching up with the precipitation.
    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php

  10. Michael P. Boyle County says:

    The SREF is my model of choice as it has seemed reasonably good in the past…Looks like a good chunk of Ky. even central Ky., has a decent shot at a snowfall wed.night/thurs and very cold.How much? At least 2″ maybe more.

  11. MarkLex says:

    In Jan 1996, I was still living in Knoxville and I hadn’t moved to Lex until August ’96 so I missed the ’96 winter here. However, in Knoxville that winter, I remember this storm. It rained buckets for hours and I remember thinking that when it got cold the moisture would be gone. I think it rained a good 2 inches. Then it got very cold but the rain turned to snow and it ended up snowing about 6 inches and the temp dropped so low that the streets were actually snow packed and people were driving around slowly all over snow packed streets. It was the weirdest looking thing. I guess my point to this story is that I have seen it rain a LONG time heavily, only to turn into a decent snow.

    • Mark says:

      I was in Morristown TN as a kid for this 96 event, I remember the decent dumping we got. It may have not been anything like the Blizzard of 93, but I haven’t experienced any “big” snows since 93 and 96. My times in Bowling Green KY (while attending WKU during 2000s) and then later living in Evansville IN had many “ankle bitter” snows and unfortunately some nasty ice storms, but no large snows. That kind of suits this warm-weather dude just fine.;)

    • Jeff Hamlin says:

      I think it was 18 years ago this winter. As a high school freshman living in Lancaster, CA in one day we had about 6 inches of snow then it turned to rain and we got two inches on top of that. It was weird. First time I had ever seen snow fall in my life.

  12. chrisbEtown says:

    Strong wording from MJ at LMK office for Severe storms Tues Night. They already have a “Send your storm reports” link posted and highlighted. SPC says a tornado outbreak is possible with moderate risk upgrade possible. 70 degrees with 60+ dewpoints and 100mph winds 1 mile above the ground with a strong cold front spells trouble here. Be ready folks.

    • BubbaG says:

      CB did say it could be wild. I think CB may be tired of all the outlook BS for snow, so might be closing his radar in to shorter periods, as not to fall for the outlooks again.

      Just a guess.

      • Todd says:

        Good call, I think the term Unpredictable weather fits for KY, especially this winter!

      • Rachel says:

        Go figure… if we’re gonna get a “wicked” in winter it’s gonna have to be tornadoes because it sure as heck doesn’t seem like it’s ever gonna be snow. I definitely don’t want tornadoes!

    • Mark says:

      Even though strong destructive straight-line winds could be the risk with the highest probability, some twisters are indeed looking possible – especially with any supercells that pop up ahead of the front.

      Bad enough tornadoes can be rain-wrapped, but this upcoming event could also happen during darkness when it’s that much harder to see a tornado, and when many people could be asleep. Folks, make sure now your weather alert radios and other warning devices are working. People in mobile homes need to have alternative shelters. During March 2 2012, all 13 Indiana fatalities and 18 of the 22 Kentucky deaths were in mobile homes.

      All of KY’s NWS radars should have dual-pol up and running by the time this storm hits. Louisville, Paducah and Jackson KY are already equipped, and the dual pol upgrade of Hopkinsville/Ft Campbell radar will probably be complete in the next day or so:
      http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pah/?n=dualpolupgrade

      WKYT’s own First Alert Defender is dual pol.

      Among other things, dual pol has a considerably better ability to detect tornadic debris. This gives mets higher confidence a tornado is on the ground doing damage and thus they can better issue warnings. Very important with rain-wrapped and/or nighttime tornadoes.

  13. Woodsman says:

    This cold weather is for the birds, bring on the snowmelt!

  14. Todd says:

    A little sleet falling in Frankfort with a temp of 44?

  15. Lincoln says:

    I like chair

  16. Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

    Just like I suspected the 18z NAM has shifted towards the GFS. It looks like we are going to have to trust the clipper system Thursday night to over perform.
    Not that I saying it going to happen again but after the super cell breakout last spring, a few days later we did receive a nice snow accumulation from a clipper. Maybe history will repeat itself.
    NOTE: I am not routing for a tornado, forget the snow if that is the high price we have to pay.

  17. Allen says:

    Charlie Brown is actually in jail right now isn`t he?

  18. rolo says:

    First that wasn`t me on the goat with cowboy hat, my goat line im sadly to say is over when Billy the goat the III is gone. he cant reproduce sadly to say. hopefully he be round few more years.

    yes CHARLIE BROWN is in jail for threatening to raise cAne so he better not be playing center if they have a cell football game.lol

    luv u guys,

  19. rolo says:

    his daddy BILLY G was a great goat, and BILLY G daddy TUBB G

    was ok as well, just seems like Billy the Goat has been missing something in his 3 years on earth, maybe it cause I went MOONSHINE free with him, my ole woman said thats why he was a weak baby cause he was in DTs.

    u say why not name him in the line and go Coach CAL the goat, well like I said he didnt earn that name,

    my one eye horse has that name, turn 3 this year and he has EARN the name.

    well actually has 2 name, Cal/wesly, wesly refers to WORLD WIDE WESS our recruiting cordinator.

  20. rolo says:

    watching the 2000 TIGER WOODS right now, it may be just one week but havnt seen this tiger since then, he focused, on point. make a double day one came back birdier eagle.

    everytime made mistake, like this evening 4th round bogey then said ok birdie then from lip of bunker to off green to just a 40 foot chip in for a birdie.

  21. rolo says:

    been thinking bout the SUPA BOWL, and much as im a RAY LEWIS guy, im more bout maKING easy money and thats why bet with CONFIDENCE on the 49ers.

    RAVENS will be worn out by the offense of 49ers IMO, and 49ers Defense is 10 times better than the PATS and FLACCO will spit the bit against a REAL D, 49ers can shut down Smith and BOLDERN with their secondary.

    ohh yea good work BAILEY at the GALA last evening.

  22. cjmajorgirl24 says:

    Rolo-welcome back!! You were missed!

  23. Marsha says:

    So glad rolo is back we just can’t have this blog without you….

  24. Chris Mercer says:

    Warm air isn’t just a problem in Kentucky. Look how much of the nation is dealing with ice right now!!!

  25. bjenks says:

    In Indy all weekend and there was actually about 2 inches of snow on the ground! When we left today it was light freezing rain.

    DAY TWO WITHOUT rolo !!!!!!

  26. BubbaG says:

    Anybody notice it is raining? Right in time with the temps. Boo!

  27. bjenks says:

    Has anyone looked at the models. Looks like we are going to relive the last two weeks…..Warm up with heavy rain…..artic cold funnels in….precip comes around, or for KY’s sake GOES AROUND, it stays below freezing for a coupld of weeks. We all get upset that it snows everywhere except KY.
    Oh what fun that will be……THINK SNOW!!!! We still have Feb and couple weeks of March to get through……

  28. RhondaB says:

    Just please no tornadoes.

  29. Kygirl28 says:

    I’m from eastern ky and really worried about the tornado threat. I don’t want to relive last march again!

  30. Go Cards says:

    This is nothing like March 2 of last year. Tornado threat much higher in Arkansas,Mississippi,Alabama,and Louisiana. May get a rogue spin up here,but more of a wind damage threat here. That isn’t even a guarantee at this point. It is a possibility not guaranteed to happen.

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