Buckle Those Seat Belts

Good Monday, everyone. Extreme is the word we’ve thrown around a lot over the past few years when describing our weather. That’s a pretty good word to use on what we have rolling our way over the next several days. Record high temps, severe thunderstorms, arctic cold and snow are all possible within 48 hours of one another. Got your attention yet?

A surge of spring air continues to filter into the bluegrass state today. This will send temps toward 60 degrees in the far west and into the 50s for the rest of the area. Scattered showers and gusty winds will make it look and feel more like the middle of March.

That mild air will become downright warm tomorrow. Temps will head into the upper 60s to around 70 degrees for much of the commonwealth. Temps in that range will put us within striking distance of record highs. Wind gusts from 30mph to 40mph will be likely.

A powerhouse of a cold front will cross the state Wednesday and this means business. A squall line of thunderstorms will be likely along this front as it races eastward. Here’s how the NAM sees it…

NAM 1

Some of those storms may be severe. Here’s the latest threat for Tuesday from the Storm Prediction Center…

Storm 1That threat will likely be expanded east for Wednesday.

Even without thunderstorms… wind gusts may approach 50mph along and just behind the front as it blows through here. Temps will start the day around 60 and then crash into the 30s from west to east. Light snow will be possible by the end of the day.

Arctic air will then sweep into the state for Thursday and Friday. Snow showers and flurries will be possible Thursday and then we watch two potential snow makers diving in from the northwest. The first arrives Thursday night and Friday with the next one coming in over the weekend.

This will be a wild ride of a weather week, so buckle up.

I will update things later today. Make it a great start to the week and take care.


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60 Responses to Buckle Those Seat Belts

  1. David Mather says:

    Going to be an interesting weather cycle.

  2. Winter Warlock II says:

    Ahhhh….nice round of golf on tap for Tuesday! That should tide me over a few weeks anyway! Lets see if we can finally see a nice event this February! Have a great day and enjoy the warmup while it lasts!

    WWII

  3. Johnny says:

    It’s simple – warm up, rain, thunderstorms, Artic Front, cold air, cloudy or sunny or ice then back to a warm up. Been like this for two years. Notice what I left out? Snow.

  4. alena says:

    got to love Ky weather. You never know what you might get. At least it’s never boring. Thanks Chris for the update. I stayed up just to see it.

  5. Dawnp007 says:

    Wow……

    • BubbaG says:

      Yep, wow that the main theme is spring like storms followed by a chance for another potential inch of snow.

      Will most of us bust past one inch of snow for winter? The suspense! :)

  6. chris g in clay county says:

    Hope its not ice again next weekend. I fell off the porch hit the sidewalk Friday checking to see how slick it was outside. Lucky I didn’t get hurt worse then a cut elbow.

    Hope storms don’t to bad tues nite/ weds. Lot of bad wounds from last march still in lot of ky residents minds. Wont be that bad I don’t think, but it may.

    I remember it getting severe end of jan in 2008. Seems as if clay and laurel both were under tornado warnings during the event. Behind the front, in arkasas, it got really cold same time ky was under tornado warnings. The wife and I thought we would freeze to death walking to wendys from our hotel room. We were on our way home from houston and stopped for thr night in arkansas. We made it home next night and it was as cold here as it was in arkansas the night before.

  7. chris g in clay county says:

    We got a good clipper in march on the 8th the same year. Got a short film we made with a digital camera of that clipper system. Couple good inches of snow. 3 or 4 I forget. Maybe we get a little snow here soon.

  8. Cosmokramer says:

    Thursday night into Friday………translation: this weekend or next week.

    Still have those new snowboards…..didn’t risk trying them on the 1″-3″ snow we didn’t get last Thursday. It was a bit too green and brown to try snowboarding.

    • ComfortEagle says:

      I feel ya man, I just dropped five grand on a snow mobile…ya know cause we get so much snow in KY we can use things like that.

    • BubbaG says:

      If you want snow, literally all states around us get snow, so not too far to go ;)

      Tis’ a heavy price for the snow fans, our state of Fencetucky

  9. LD says:

    According to the maps, it’s the western half of the state that has to worry about this system coming in during the night. I feel for you all. Hopefully, this system will continue our trend of under performing. No complaints on this one if it does. While, I hold ZERO expectation of accumulating snow, our local reservoir will welcome the much needed rain.

  10. Mike S says:

    I know things will change, but a recent look at the top 15 analogs for the upcoming springlike storm two days out, shows a fairly widespread outbreak of severe weather across Arkansas, western Tennessee, and western Kentucky. Nevertheless, everybody in the region could be affected.

    Of interest to me was a comment made by a forecaster at the NWS office here in Louisville, commenting on the possible wind fields just above the surface based on NAM:

    “The NAM solutions suggest a 75-85kt 850 hPa low-level jet axis pushing into the Ohio Valley. Quite frankly it is one of the strongest low-level jet depictions I`ve seen fromthe NAM in a while.”

  11. Any chance one of those latter week clippers will lay a stripe of accumulating in western or southern Kentucky? I know to NOT count on it, but still wondering anyway…

  12. Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

    Just took a quick glimpse at the 6z GFS, what a surprise the clipper system will bring 3/4 of the state a nice steady rain. You know it is bad when you cannot pick up a snow flake from a system diving out of the north during the winter.
    Hopefully, the model is under estimating the depth of the cold. We shall see if we can receive the ankle bitter we all been desperately seeking this year.

  13. Andy Rose says:

    Looks like no more arctic air

  14. James says:

    It sucks that I’m gonna have to drive through it. I dread it already. I think I have a severe weather phobia. Weather is interesting, but I literally hate storms.

  15. LD says:

    One degree away from our forecast high of 55 at 9am in the morning. Woot.

    I wonder how much this warm shot is going to decimate the snow pack (as it were) to our north and further hinder our chances going forward?

  16. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks, Chris. Boy, if we could just get ONE system to behave as it should, we coul dget a good snow. As it is, sounds like the wind will be too strong to fly a kite, so just hang on. IT sounds like a wild ride!

  17. Todd says:

    NWS already saying any snow this week will be minor accumulation at best, spring weather front then one cold day with flurries, Blaw, Blaw Blaw!

  18. Ready For Spring says:

    I am ready for Spring. If I hear another word about possible snow, arctic cold or clipper systems I will move to New Zealand! (At least until their winter arrives in June). In the meantime I will enjoy today and tomorrow.

  19. rolo says:

    testing 1,2,3

    • 3789N8434W says:

      my how time flies! long time go you left us for unknown parts for a couple of years….and I don’t feel a bit older…glad you are ‘testy’!!

  20. WendyT says:

    Crazy to see that much rain on the radar, and that far north, on Jan. 28. Geesh!

  21. BengalFan says:

    ” Record high temps, severe thunderstorms, arctic cold and snow are all possible within 48 hours of one another.”
    No doubt we will see record high temps and severe thunderstorms…Arctic Cold and snow(i guess if you mean one day gets down to 26 and a flurry)!

    • c-BIV says:

      Anyone else losing their comments in cyberspace?

      • Mark says:

        Happens to all of us from time to time, don’t know why. I’ve had long posts go through but not short ones – go figure.

        I’ve learned to copy my posts before sending. If it doesn’t go through, I re-paste and try editing/shortening the post; that usually works.

  22. Bernard P. Fife says:

    I think someone has fed ol’ man winter a healthy dose of tylenol pm the last couple winters. :(

  23. WR Foley says:

    Crazy Ky weather but Chris is on top of it as usual. Chris does this winter favor a wet and wild spring with tornadoes

  24. Mark says:

    Storm Prediction Center now has moderate risk for severe storms on Tue for parts of Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi and extreme southwestern TN including Memphis.

    At this time, our area could get some isolated twisters (especially western parts of KY/TN) with otherwise mainly a damaging straight-line wind event from a squall line. However, squall line twisters – while generally less powerful than supercell twisters – tend to give less warning time even when using radar, so important to have a wx alert alarm ready, especially at night.

  25. Coach foley says:

    Wet day here in Lily ky

  26. Weatherdadof2 says:

    JKL starting to outline severe thunderstorm/ tornado threat for Tues night/Wednesday. Thus Spring begins early in Kentucky. We would all like the afterglow of an after snow, but preferably not a severe weather outbreak.

  27. Chris Mercer says:

    This latest period of mild temps (today, tomorrow, and Wednesday) will once again push last winter warmer than this winter.

    Three things I take from this:
    1: These now have the serious potential to be the one of only two consecutive winters to be in the Top 10 Warmest for Lexington. We are simply running out of time, and I see forecasts for temps to be back into the 50′s early next week. The other cycle 1949-1950. Those records date back to 1872.

    2: I know Chris is forecasting the pattern, as is Brian Goode, as was John Belski when he said “I guarantee this winter will be colder than last winter.” This is not a criticism of any of the folks that are trying to forecast the pattern, but perhaps the pattern has permanently changed. Which leads me to…

    3: Either this is a short-term blip in climate cycles or this is the “new winter here.” Next winter should be the tell-tale. We have never had three winters in a row end up in the Top 10 Warmest.

  28. Page says:

    Do you see any possibility for tornados in West Liberty for Wednesday?

  29. Andy Rose says:

    upper 20s=arctic air? wow

  30. Chris Mercer says:

    Several days ago I asked if /WXMAN and/or MJ had been blocked. I heard from MJ, but never from WXMAN, so I went over to “his” blog and read a few comments and they are beyond condescending. It is fine to disagree and from time-to-time and to prod at Chris for his enthusiasm for winter weather. But personal attacks, I think, are uncalled for. Don’t know why some people can’t learn to agree to disagree from time to time and do it in a respectful manner.

    I’m not met, but I know Chris and most of you are disappointed with the past two winters. Did Chris hype it? Maybe. But I bet his is just like all of us–wanting to see some good snow and cold. I’m not going to criticize him for that, thought I might point out facts from time to time that tell just how warm and snowless we have been.

    Rant over. Thanks for listening, or not listening, and may the Cats finally get a big win tomorrow night!

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