Tracking Severe Storms and Record Warmth

Good Tuesday, everyone. A very active 48 hour period is upon us as a strong cold front gets set to swing through the state. Record highs, severe thunderstorms, a temp plunge and some snow make up the forecast during this time period.

Here’s what to expect:

- Temps today will surge into the upper 60s and low 70s. Record highs are in serious jeopardy.

- Gusty winds may reach 30mph to 40mph at times.

- Our cold front will press closer to western Kentucky late this evening into the overnight. A squall line of thunderstorms will develop and work eastward. Damaging winds will be the main player with this line of storms. We will also have to keep an eye on thunderstorms going up ahead of this main line. That may pose a tornado threat across far western parts of the state.

- The squall line  and severe weather threat will then progress into central and eastern Kentucky late tonight and Wednesday morning. Damaging winds will continue to be a threat during this time.

- Temps will start in the 60s and fall into the 30s by Wednesday evening. Some snow flurries will be possible during this time.

- Arctic air will continue to funnel in here Thursday and Friday with snow showers possible Thursday. We have two light snow threats… one for Thursday night/Friday and then again on Saturday.

 Let’s track today’s severe weather threat…

Current Watches

Possible Watches

I will have updates as needed and have updates via twitter. Follow me: @kentuckyweather

Have a great Tuesday and take care.


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76 Responses to Tracking Severe Storms and Record Warmth

  1. alena says:

    gonna be interesting. Tomorrow will be a good day to open windows and let fresh warm air blow in. love it

  2. alena says:

    sorry I meant to say today, I haven’t been asleep yet so it’s still yesterday for me.

  3. BubbaG says:

    Wall of wind will be late at night. That will probably wake some folks up at night, depending on when it hits.

    I remember a few blizzards when we would see walls of snow in the distance and then BOOM! Big snow, baby!

    Memories, like the corners of my mind, misty water colored memories…… of the way we werrrrrre. Sing it Barbara!

    Sing it Barbara.

    • Coffeelady says:

      BubbaG, I can think of some other memories of the way we were, as well, but since this is a weather blog, I will keep those memories to myself! ;) I DO like the analogy, though.

  4. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks, Chris. Wouldn’t it be nice to get the big moisture and the cold together at the same time and have it ehave like it should? In any event, January is ending with a BANG. Let’s hope February can give us a good snow. Thanks for all you do. Have a great Tuesday, everyone!

  5. Mark says:

    Looks like western TN and perhaps extreme western KY will get a fair shot of some supercells which could put down some tornadoes this evening. This along with destructive straight-line t-storm winds.

    As the storms moves east, the supercell threat may largely subside. Damaging winds along the squall line would be the threat with the highest probability, with an isolated twister or two still possible. However, again, while squall line twisters may tend to be somewhat weaker than supercell twisters, squall line tornadoes give less warning. So have your weather alert alarm systems ready, especially when you are asleep.

  6. Lincoln says:

    Ah I can hear my television now.. The national weather service in Louisville Kentucky has issued a severe.. Feels like spring!

  7. Weatherdadof2 says:

    Just had tornado drill in our school. Eastern KY is getting ready; we have fresh memories of tornados, last Spring, that flattened everything just a few miles up the road.

  8. Weatherdadof2 says:

    Just had tornado drill in our school. Eastern KY is getting ready; we have fresh memories of tornadoes, last Spring, that flattened everything just a few miles up the road.

  9. bjenks says:

    Thanks Chris for the update!!!

    Looks to be a pretty windy night for KY. Will be nice to see some lighting and here claps of thunder to get us ready for the upcoming spring season. Then lets hope for a couple of overperforming clippers. Glad to see that they are moisture starved….Can only go up from there with, no disappointments!!.
    Have a great day everyone. Be prepared for the worst tonight!!!! It is best to prepare and have nothing happen than to scramble at the last minute.

  10. Andy Rose says:

    This is what the NWS out of Jackson is saying
    http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/jkl/wx/File.png

    • Weatherdadof2 says:

      Do you think supercells will maintain strength through the night or will we see straight line threat before noon?

      • Andy Rose says:

        For Eastern KY folks I’m not concerned about Severe weather but you need to ask somebody a lot smarter than me.

      • Mark says:

        NWS Jackson KY has an updated web briefing about the severe wx:
        http://www.crh.noaa.gov/jkl/

        The SPC has been indicating that the supercell threat will be relatively high for western KY but likely will lesson toward eastern KY. This is nothing like not March 2 2012 (which included a ridiculously strong jet stream over eastern KY which helped trigger the West Liberty and Saylorsville twisters). This time it could be more of an isolated tornado or two but mainly a high threat of strong damaging straight-line winds.

  11. Coach foley says:

    Maybe a busy night an early morning Chris. Spring like morning here in the valley of lily ky.Be A u T full day

  12. Andy Rose says:

    well the cold spe did mot last long enough red wasps out and about

  13. Mike S says:

    I’ve been studying the different analogs that would compare most favorably with this storm system. One that keeps popping up is the Super Tuesday outbreak of February 5-6, 2008. Eerily similar.

    http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/?n=top10tornadooutbreaks

    Look at number 4 for Super Tuesday.

    This does not mean that we will see these conditions again. However, several factors are lining up for an outbreak of severe weather including tornadoes. At this time, the latest information keeps the bulk of the tornado threat to our west and south. But, SPC has upgraded parts of Kentucky to a 5% risk. Western KY may be upgraded to a MODERATE risk for severe weather later.

  14. barb says:

    I’m thrilled that we’ve escaped Winter without any snow : ) Bring on the Spring and warm weather : )

  15. In Lincoln County says:

    Any chance of accumulating snows with the system Thursday night? I haven’t seen any links with information.

  16. Todd says:

    Looks like another glancing blow of winter this week , temps back to near 50 by Monday!

  17. Paintsville Lib says:

    Greg Forbes has a Torcon of 5 for East KY tomorrow. He was spot on back in March.

  18. Wayne says:

    Looks like Western Kentucky now in the Moderate Risk category. That always makes me a tad nervous, especially if it hits at night like this one is predicted to do.

    As for snow, all we get is ice in Western Kentucky. I’d rather have 50s than ice. If ice is all we’ll get, bring on spring.

  19. Mike S says:

    The 70′s have arrived in parts of eastern KY

    Dewpoints in the 55-60 range right now across central and west KY

    Winds are steadily increasing out west (25-30mph consistent gusts)

  20. Mark says:

    New tornado watch just issued for much of Missouri except for part of the Missouri boot heel. At this rate, western KY will be next. As Wayne mentioned in a previous post, western KY now in a moderate risk for severe wx.

  21. Go Cards says:

    Things better start picking up to our wesr or this will be another bust. Had one tornado warning in Missouri earlier but now not much going on. I guess we will see what happens.

  22. Go Cards says:

    I agree. Just saying you have like one Severe T-storm warning in Missouri right now. This thing better start firing or all these mets gonna look foolish again.

    • Todd says:

      I guess a night time severe threat is something they can risk busting after what happen last march!

      • bjenks says:

        Short Lived super cell tornando’s. No fun at night. Should be ok along the river…..Western KY has the best shot. All of Kentucky will have high winds regardless the storm threat. Be prepared is what all the mets are saying.

        • CGM40 says:

          Tornado warnings starting to pop up eastern OK, into West AR. East KY has a Torcon of 5 tomorrow morning, Dr. Forbes is a met I would want to pay attention to, during severe weather.

    • Rachel says:

      In my mind there’s nothing foolish about telling everyone to be aware of an increased risk of severe storms that could potentially produce tornadoes. This isn’t like our prayed for snow… if not one tornado comes of this I hope we’ll all be thankful and not care whether or not the mets were wrong.

  23. Todd says:

    Frankfort warning sirens are down tonight so that throws a little more concern for this area with the approach of dangerous weather?

  24. Coach foley says:

    My goats are wild and crazy acting today here in the valley of Lily ky hope that’s not a sign of the storms heading this way haha .when will Chris update again I’m kinda new on here.

  25. Leeannie says:

    Just saw where Huntington made a new record high of 85 today! The old record was 72 in 1903. Too crazy! I’m afraid we’re going to pay big for this beautiful warm day! Be careful everyone!

  26. BubbaG says:

    Seems straight line winds are a given for this, but who knows on the other stuff. The only thing we can count on is not much snow.

    I agree with Rolo about the arctic air. More like normal winter air, before warm air became the main playa’. Even the colder air seems short lived for next week. Yeppers, most of the wild ride is a spring theme followed by super short winter wink ;)

    Last winter went very similar. Only difference is we actually had “bust” past the 1″ snow total already. Can the bar go even lower?

    Boo on the bar!

  27. Thomas says:

    Hey guys, Thomas from Murray, KY. I hope this scenario doesn’t play out here in western KY. Friend of mind blogged about possible serial derecho playing out, had to look it up to know what he was talking about. If I’m not mistaken that scenario that happened in spring of 2011 here was when we had straight line winds clocked at 100 mph. Numerous trees down and kids out of school for a thunderstorm due to roads being blocked. Be safe all.

    • Rachel says:

      I remember it happening in February of 2008 as well — horrible straight line winds here in Lexington. The sirens went off and in several neighborhoods they had to have whoever it is that comes out come out to figure out if it was a tornado or straightline winds. Our street was untouched, but two steets behind ours it was literally tree after tree uprooted (and these were huge old trees, not little ones). Cars were smashed, several had fallen on houses and there was tons of roof damage throughout the area. Those winds are nothing to play around with.

      • Thomas says:

        I always stay up when over night severe weather hits and I remember that storm last spring. We had no warning from our local weather and all of a sudden the house starts creaking and popping. Winds lasted about five minutes, but I had no idea how bad it was till the next morning on the way to work.

  28. MarkLex says:

    Mark -

    About your post above where you said this is not going to be anything like the March tornadoes because there was a ridiculously strong jet stream over eastern KY then……….Shows how much I know! I wasn’t aware the jetstream needed to be on top of you for that to happen. I thought it was just the clash of warm & cold air….. I guess I need to do some reading and learning. Ha!

  29. rolo says:

    do think we see few inches snow thursday thru friday.

  30. Jason says:

    What time is 12z? Jackson says line should be just west of I-75 by 12 or 13z..

  31. Muddy says:

    What time will storm move through Somerset area ? “about”

  32. kandy london says:

    2 questions–1. what was the date of the bad weather day last year when we had tornados? 2. what was it about that day that the weather people all correctly predicted that it would be bad–it is scary to think back of schools dismissing early ?

    • RhondaB says:

      Kandy, the date was Mar. 2nd. I will never forget it. Not sure exactly what it was that made all the weather people sit up and take notice, but I remember our TorCon index was a 10 and it only went up to 8. The weather people on here could answer the cause question better.

  33. Coach foley says:

    Cats win tonight an turn the season around.

  34. Mark says:

    As CB just tweeted, a new tornado watch is likely soon, part of which could cover western KY. The SPC has a Mesoscale Discussion about this.
    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/

  35. Mike S says:

    Watch due out anytime for western KY

    Winds at least 55mph expected near Louisville betw 3:30 and 4:30 am

  36. Mark says:

    Little Rock under a tornado warning now, radar indicated at this time (no sightings so far). Individual supercells in the area.

    Live tv coverage
    http://www.todaysthv.com/thv2/default.aspx

    Arkansas under tornado watch that may be just under criteria for a PDS watch (Particularly Dangerous Situation). I’m a little nervous, as my area (Nashville TN) is not far from the area with moderate risk of severe wx and a relatively elevated risk for tornadoes.

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