Winter Takes A Break

Good Tuesday, my fellow weather weenies. The harsh wintry pattern we’ve been in for the past few weeks will take a break for much of the next week and change. While the milder air takes control, Old Man Winter is plotting a big return for the middle and end of the month.

Today starts out with temps in the upper 20s and low 30s with some sprinkles and flurries. A mix of sun and clouds will be with us this afternoon and again on Wednesday. Temps will run from the 30s in the north to the 40s in the south and west.

Thursday will be the warmest day of the week with readings heading toward the low 50s on a gusty west and southwest wind. That wind will bring showers our way by Thursday evening and those will hang around into Friday.

That mess will clear out by Saturday as temps really begin to soar by the weekend. Highs will hit the 50s as clouds increase by Saturday night. That will lead us into a soggy pattern that develops from Sunday into early next week. Look at the rain numbers from the GFS through early next week…

GFS

That rainy setup will lead us back into a cold and snowy pattern for the middle and end of the month.

Check out the return of the deep trough on the GFS Ensembles…

GFS

That’s a very impressive look and the worst of winter may still be ahead of us and much of the country.

Have a terrific Tuesday and take care.


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33 Responses to Winter Takes A Break

  1. dawnp007 says:

    Will be interesting to see how it all plays out. Thanks for the update.

  2. MarkLex says:

    Well it is possible! Given history, some of our worst winter weather has been in Feb & March……

    And for those who mentioned Lexington not being above normal snowfall, for the entire season, it is. I think it’s 8.3 inches combined total so far from the few small snows we’ve had. I think that’s around 2 inches above normal. I think we had 3 inches from one storm (was that in DEC?) can’t remember, then these two small snows we had recently.

    I really hope south central and southern KY gets in on some good snows before the winter is over, even though people are ready for spring in early FEB.

  3. MikeM says:

    Worst of winter? I hope so.

    • BubbaG says:

      Considering a lot of us have had almost nothing so far, that is kind of like multiplying by a percentage for the worst ;)

  4. pattyversailles says:

    Happy Weather Persons day to you CB and all the weather staff at WKYT!!!!

  5. Pam says:

    Thanks for the update Chris. I have no doubt winter isnt over. Its just February. I just moved here in 2006 and every winter since then Feb was the worst. Last winter was relatively mild as far as cold goes. If anybody will pay attention the pattern is doing the same thing warm up then cold and its been doing this for some time now and each cold spell we get it gets colder. To be honest im ready for spring I have seen enough snow but it wouldnt surprise me one bit to see more snow and more of what fell this time. Chris is definitely hinting to this so who knows what awaits us because Feb is just getting started.

  6. BubbaG says:

    Perhaps for folks south of the river a more pertinent title from a snow standpoint is Winter Continues to Take a Break. Wild what a river split can apparently do. North Richmond is at 2.5″ total for winter and folks south of that even less.

    CB continues to provide a very reasonable outlook that makes sense, but uncanny how our area and some others defy it. The trend has won so far for us. A big bust for me (FWIW) if continues, since expected temperatures for this winter to be an average of the last two winters and as much snow as 2010/11, but with less small events.

    I am no better than Rolo’s goat that does his forecasts and is apparently also his stenographer.

    • Bjenks says:

      Speaking of ROLO and his goag. I have not seen him around since Sunday….Does anyone know if his GOAT is a DORITOS Lover….Did ROLO finially hit the big one (not weather or betting) by selling out his goat.

      Thanks for the update CB….

  7. Bjenks says:

    As for the Bengals (sorry Chris and Bengalsfan) pretty sad that they could not go out and find a hard working linebacker. Had to wait until a PRISON Term was over to activate one. I guess they are looking to get a few PICKS/TAKE AWAY’s from this guy. I guess the NFL is at fault here also????

  8. Bjenks says:

    As for the weather….Hope we can muster a few good snows from this next cold snap. Looks to be more impressive than the first two and the Southern Stream is generally pretty active during the transition from Winter to Spring. We could be in for a pretty wild ride over the back end of winter. LETS hope so anyhow.
    Have a great day everyone and THINK SNOW!!!!

    • BubbaG says:

      Considering warm air becomes a bigger player then and it has impacted the coldest part of winter already, not sure I would hold breath for that. Best to keep breathing and smell the spring flowers on the way.

      • Bjenks says:

        Ok…THINK ICE….FENCETUCKY will live on. Artic Air will be colder and longer lasting than last two. Although daytime highs will be a degee or two higher than the last two we will still see below freezing temps for a few days straight. If it is winter I am still holding out hope for the Old School / Trend Buster…I know we are running out of time, BUT……IT IS STILL WINTER!!!

  9. Lincoln says:

    French toast.

  10. Todd says:

    Normal high temp now up to 45 degrees in Frankfort area, soon 50 will be normal, so the next cold spell will have us way below normal if we have daytime snow?

  11. Ben in Lexington says:

    Happy weather persons day to you CB and all your fellow weather people. Thanks for this awesome blog. Very informative and entertaining.

  12. chris g in clay county says:

    Think everyone forgot about the Sunday feburary 28th snow that we got last year. It looked like OLD school for a bit but we did get about 6 inches or so in clay county from that storm. I don’t remember any snow to amount to much after the march 2012 tornado outbreak here in clay. Must been a central and northern ky event.

    Atmosphere has to warm up and recharge itself before it gets cold again and brng us a ossible snow storm. Winter is not over till about 2 to 3 weeks up in march to me. March is strange month. You can have 50s in morning with snow pouding by dark. I’ve seen it happen.

    Happy weatherguy day if today is national weatherman day chris, thanks for all you do for us.

  13. MarkLex says:

    March is a strange month. Anything can happen – or anything can’t happen. We shall see.

  14. Jenn says:

    Happy national weatherman day!! Chris your the best

  15. unclesi says:

    worst is yet to come ?????? bull snot …… how can they see what the weather is going to be for the 20th and beyond when they can’t even get it right a couple days out …. he is the only one I have heard that says anything about bad weather then ….. accuweather which has been pretty dead on for my area all winter says the next 20 days will be nothing but 40s and 50s and any precip will be rain.

  16. Andy Rose says:

    Its been cloudy all day and in the mid 50s where is the flooding rains that usually accompanies

  17. Todd says:

    The 8 to 14 day NOAA extended maps are coming around to What Chris has been saying about the colder and wetter pattern coming in during that period, they had a much warmer look for that period a few days ago, Fun and games are not over yet spring chickens ;)

  18. lisaj says:

    Happy Weather “Dude” Day CB.

    Thanks for your hard work and dedication to this blog.

    lisa

    p.s. I hope you get your ice cream!

  19. weather blog troll says:

    Thank you, Chris. Really appreciate all the good work you do here, in the paper and on 27.

    This is great, a nice head fake Spring warm up and then another shot at SNOW!

  20. Ben in Lexington says:

    Nothing to see here tonight….or today. Crickets….

  21. MarkLex says:

    If anyone wants to see something hilarious, go to youtube and type “QVC vacuum disaster”

    They are doing a DEMO on live TV in the UK and just when watching and you think it can’t get any worse, it does. If you need a good laugh, watch this.

  22. Did I hear someone say AccuWeather has been accurate 20 days out? I’m sorry, but CB >>> AccuWeather. You do realize their forecasts past 7 days merely gravitate towards climo, right? I go by a lot of sources and Accu isn’t one of them. In terms of climo (1980-2010), I’m only slightly below average snowfall wise and the best of winter has yet to come. Going to be a great month!

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