Mid Week Snow Potential Increasing

Good Sunday, everyone. We have a rainy cold front working eastward across the commonwealth today. This front will produce gusty winds and widespread showers through early Monday. This front will also usher in the return of winter and we’re tracking an increasing snow threat for Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Showers will be common across the western part of the state early today. Those rains will then work eastward across the rest of the region this afternoon and evening. Temps will hit the 50s ahead of the front that will slowly work through here on Monday. Winds will gust up along and behind this front as colder air moves in.

We’re getting back into a busy winter pattern and that means the blog will get back to updating more than once a day. That also means I don’t want to get too wordy with this update.

The forecast models continue to develop a storm across the western Gulf of Mexico and head toward the Carolinas Wednesday. A swath of snow will fall to the north and west of that track. Many of the forecast models show that swath cutting right across Kentucky. Here’s the GFS…

GFS

That’s a track that is usually a good one for a wet snowfall around here. The NAM run (as of this writing) only went out to Wednesday morning and showed a much more robust snow maker pushing in from the west…

NAM Snowfall

At this point, I feel fairly confident of a swath of accumulating snow working through the state Wednesday. Where and how much? Those are questions to tackle over the next few days as the model guidance comes into focus.

We also have to track the arctic plunge and possible end of the week system. Let’s take ‘em one at a time for now. ;)

I will have another update later today. Have a great Sunday and take care.


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46 Responses to Mid Week Snow Potential Increasing

  1. Joe T says:

    The past 2 runs of the GFS basically dropped the weekend storm altogether….I am beginning to hate that model. Hope the other models have not bailed too…..

  2. MikeM says:

    As long as Chris says it’s coming I don’t care what anybody elses interpretation of the models are.

  3. cosmokramer says:

    Maybe you’ve seen some of Mr. Bailey’s forecast movies:

    The Swathman Prophecies (West Virginia setting–probably WSAZ)

    The Swathman Cometh (When? Anytime the temperature is 50 or less)

    The Swathman Always Rings Twice (Let’s see, Tuesday and Friday)

    Will the forecast win an Oscar or a Razzie?

  4. Go Cards says:

    5OT man what a game. As far as the weather is concerned I wouldn’t put much faith in the nam. Been showing crazy precip numbers all winter. The weekend storm I have no faith in right now at all. Not even there at all on the models anymore. Maybe it will come back but I wouldn’t expect it.

  5. WXEMGUY says:

    I think it’s premature to hang the hat on a current run of the GFS. In the pattern…subtle changes can result in a big change in results…which is why the subtle changes have gone from all to nothing in recent runs. Overall…the weather pattern dictates we will need to closely watch out for next weekend. Don’t be surprised to see the phantom system return.

    For now, it’s important to keep an eye on Wednesday. That system will impact the Commonwealth. There will be a winter return.

    Side note…regarding the upcomming Wednesday Storm…models first showed it…then dropped it and had something moving well south and east of the state with no impact. Now it is back in force…and this is close to what we will see. In forecasting…follow the trend of the season with systems and understand what the GFS is showing for next weekend is right on shcedule for what the models have done this season. Give it a day or two and the weekend storm will re-appear over Kentucky. It’s not myth or fad…it’s been an overall model trend.

  6. WXEMGUY says:

    Chris’ forecast thinking for wednesday is top dead center…so far so good.

  7. weather blog troll says:

    Thanks to Chris – and to WXEMGUY. Nice to see some wise posts.
    Think SNOW you all!

  8. Coffeady says:

    Thanks, Chris. As I have said here many times… Hope springs eternal. Wednesday looks good. And as you and WXEMGUY SAID, lets take them one at a time. Have a great Sunday, all. And cards fan, you are right! What a game!

    • cosmokramer says:

      I read it once (Hope springs eternal) and I think you want snow. I read it again and think you want spring to last forever. ;)

  9. Festus says:

    Friends at work are making fun of me for talking about a mid week storm when all the other mets are forecasting 50′s. Maybe I should place some money on Chris’ forecast?

  10. JJTeach says:

    Anyone else concerned about the Wednesday event being a mainly daytime event?? I am like Chris and would love nothing more than to go get a good wet thumping of snow. But, with the sun angle rising in February and daytime heating, I see this Wednesday system having a hard time sticking, especially to any sort of pavement. I think it saw it was supposed to get up to freezing or slightly above on Wednesday afternoon.
    Can we get lucky and this system speed up and come through here mainly Tues. night? Or…slow down and come through Wed. Night? Time will tell I guess :)

    • Rachel says:

      It would be par for the course for me… when we had the nasty roads the friday before last I had to drive to EKU that morning for a meeting. This Wednesday… same thing. I want snow, but if it can just snow enough Tuesday night to cancel the meeting or hold off enough until after it’s over that would be awesome!

  11. rolo says:

    JJTEACH if it snows hard enough aint nothing going keep it from laying sir,

    biggest snows i ever saw was temps above freezing. 34-35 degrees.

    now what going happen, the mid week i see the soujtern half state seeing rain/snow mix etc nothing to see.

    now rain/snow line going set up in KY somewhere, I say Richmond north best chance at snow, but the EURO has pick up on the mid week SNOW now as well.

  12. rolo says:

    with what we saw this season there going be a THUMPING mid week whereever it sets up..

    the ATMOSPHERE IS JUICED..

  13. Joey Wilson says:

    This morning’s Paducah NWS discussion has some good discussion about the Tues/Wed snow chance. It’s amazing to me the way Chris picks up on these chances 2-3 days before the NWS offices catch on. Thanks Chris! Fingers crossed for this next open window for winter, which will likely be the last one this season.

    • Israel says:

      The NWS will never speak out or put out a chance of precip until the models are consistent because they don’t want to show something a week out that never comes. They want to make sure the event IS going to happen, or at least when its a good bet.

      • BubbaG says:

        And that is where folks get confused here. They confuse actual published outlooks and forecasts with Chris’s thoughts on this blog.

  14. Todd says:

    NWS not taking this Wendsday thing seriously, rain or snow with little accumulation, They have all the negatives in their Louisville discussion dry air aloft, warm ground temperatures, temps rising into the 40s, pipe dream for this storm to work out for KY!

    • KellyinLouisville says:

      There just isn’t any cold air to work with. The “cold front” working through here later tonight isn’t really a true cold front. It’s going to 50 degrees tomorrow so very little change in temps. Even if it were to snow Wednesday, a big if, it’s going to be a daytime event and this late in the season means its almost impossible to overcome solar heating. We saw that Friday in NY and Boston where it wasn’t till dark that snow started to stick.

      • Todd says:

        This would have to make its own cold air like it does in the south sometimes, maybe this will overachieve and give us a wet snow SURPRIZE ?

  15. Vinny says:

    I was in Toronto Thursday night/Friday. It was snowing so hard you couldn’t really enjoy it. They received around 10” while I was there, not sure what they ended up with. My flight was canceled so we had to drive from Toronto to Detroit and that was a blast… I posted some vids and pictures on my twitter & FB accounts… They being said, I’m ready for spring, Reds baseball, camping and grillin’…

    For all you folks that bash this site, wouldn’t be so much easier to just go to another weather site and move on? Just a thought…

    GO CATS..!

  16. BubbaG says:

    Seems by the maps folks to our west are the main spot. The warm air and the Kentucky “winter law” of 33 degrees also applies. Anybody comparing the Nor’ Easter event that just happened to this is not a relative comparison.

    We could see an inch or two, but my confidence is 100% with the trend since it has not failed. Until an actual result happens and not just for certain spots of the map, the trend is what it is.

    Still, there is always a chance since still winter. Wimpy or not.

  17. spencerlady says:

    Just spoke to my brother in Ontario, Canada. He lives near Grimsby…about 45 min away from Niagara Falls. They have 20 inches of snow. It is currently sunny and it looks beautiful. I would like half of that and be done for the season. ;-)

  18. Bill L says:

    I am holding on tightly to increased snow potential! If Chris thinks this, then there is something to it….he beats the NWS by days.

  19. Joey Wilson says:

    My hopes for the Tues/Wed event are diminishing. Not enough cold air and recent warm-up doesn’t bode well for snow to stick, even if it does fall.

  20. which way is the wind blowing says:

    As long as the temps the day before are not in the 50`ees or above we will be find. What is more critical is what the temp is at
    the time the snow is falling and the rate.

  21. Bob says:

    NWS in Jackson has Knott Co. in all rain now for Tuesday night/Wednesday….

  22. Cam the Man says:

    The midweek system wasn’t ever going to be that big a deal anyway. Gotta focus to next weekend and beyond if we want to tap into anything remotely interesting…

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